Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates ABY as Overweight (1) -

FY21 results were ahead of guidance and Morgan Stanley notes FY22 is also tracking ahead of expectations, which should build credibility. Higher investment is laying the foundation for long-term growth, the broker adds.

The short term is affected by lockdown benefits but the broker believes 25-30% compound growth is realistic over the medium term. Overweight rating maintained. Target is raised to $6 from $5. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: $1.14
If ABY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALU as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Despite risks, Citi has taken a positive outlook on Altium's FY22 outlook. The broker considers weakness following the FY21 result a buying opportunity, and continues to see medium- to long-term upside from the monetisation of the A365/Nexar Platform. 

Citi considers Altium's FY22 revenue guidance of 16-20% as solid given headwind from the transition away from perpetual licenses, and is forecasting 19% growth in FY22 underpinned by strength in China.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target price decreases to $35.40 from $37.60.

Target price is $35.40 Current Price is $29.90 Difference: $5.5
If ALU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.20, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALU as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

FY21 results were below both Macquarie and consensus forecasts as well as company guidance. The FY22 revenue guidance range is  narrowed to US$209-217m from US$202-222m while the earnings (EBITDA) margin is lowered to 34-36% from 36-39%.

The broker decreases its rating to Underperform from Neutral and it's felt market confidence will be reduced around the company’s lack of visibility on the longer-term outlook. The target price falls to $27.60 from $30.

Target price is $27.60 Current Price is $29.90 Difference: minus $2.3 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.20, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Following the August reporting season, Ord Minnett downgrades its rating for ANZ Bank to Hold from Accumulate as loan growth trends worsened in July. Also, mortgage loans have fallen at a -1% annualised pace this fiscal half to date. The target falls to $29.10 from $30.60.

Given a heavy reliance on the broker channel, the analyst expects the bank's turnaround to take longer. Combined with the pushback of official interest rate rises by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand due to the covid outbreak, near-term catalysts are considered light-on.

Target price is $29.10 Current Price is $27.85 Difference: $1.25
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.60, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Buy (1) -

Further to the initial reaction to the strong FY21 result, UBS assesses the favourable conditions will continue into FY22. The new car market is expected to remain tight with orders running 10-20% ahead of deliveries.

Used car prices have also remained high, although the company notes margins are tapering.

The main issue for the broker is what business-as-usual looks like once conditions normalise in FY23. UBS upgrades estimates for earnings per share and raises the target to $3.10 from $3.00. Buy retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.8
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBT as Add (1) -

BlueBet Holdings delivered a strong FY21 result, reports Morgans, with all key metrics exceeding prospectus forecasts, and second half FY21 net revenue beat was 6.0%.

The company reiterated that strong momentum in the Australian business helped to deliver a record monthly July net win. Positive trading had continued into August and net win margins are being maintained at 10%-plus levels.

Morgans believes the implied first-half FY22 result appears conservative and has upgraded revenue forecasts 3.9% ahead of the 2021 prospectus and forecasts FY22 revenue of $45.5m, up 40.5% year-on-year.

The Add rating is unchanged and the price target increases to $2.80 from $2.44.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.29
If BBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BEN as Hold (3) -

Following the August reporting season, Ord Minnett notes margin trends were mixed in the September quarter/half and expects mortgage margin headwinds to re-emerge. This supports a preference for more business-exposed banks.

The broker raises its target price for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank to $10 from $9.70 and retains its Hold rating.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.04 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.33, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BUB as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Following a 10% gross sales increase in the second half of FY21, it is Citi's view that there is evidence of improving sales momentum in key cross-border e-commerce and daigou channels, and that Bubs Australia could benefit in FY22 from an improved inventory position. 

The broker notes potential for Bubs Australia to capture market share despite pressures in China infant milk formula sales. Excluding China, the company grew international sales 65% on the previous comparable period. 

The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target price increases to $0.41 from $0.33.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0
If BUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BWX as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

The FY21 financials surprised to the upside as stronger margins compensated for weaker sales.

Citi's update is a genuine mix of pros and cons, dominated by another acquisition, Go-To, which is financed through new capital, while BWX's core business is feeling the impact from covid (see slower sales).

Following on from the strong share price performance in 2021, Citi has decided it's time to scale back the Buy recommendation and replace it with a Neutral rating instead.

Despite announcing an accretive acquisition, Citi's forecasts hardly move as downgrades have been necessary elsewhere to account for the covid-impact.

New target of $5.63 is only minimally above the prior $5.60.

Target price is $5.63 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: $0.53
If BWX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CMW as Hold (3) -

Cromwell Property Group's FY21 result, including operating profit of $192.2m, held few major surprises with the key near-term focus on the pending strategic review and pathway to reduce gearing.

Morgans expects a focus on reducing gearing to form part of the review and notes the group's major holder ARA is under takeover by ESR with their combined platform making it Asia’s largest property manager and third-largest listed property manager globally.

No specific FY22 funds from operations guidance was provided, but the group expects to continue paying a quarterly distribution of 1.625c "until further notice".

NTA stands at $1.02. Morgans maintains its Hold rating and the price target is lowered to $1.05 from $1.14.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.13
If CMW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CRW as Buy (1) -

FY21 gross profit was a 5.2% beat versus Ord Minnett's forecast while earnings (EBITDA) were in-line. Average revenue per user (ARPU) fell only -$4 from the previous corresponding period, despite the -$12 covid-related impact for the travel ARPU.

Ord Minnett believes the stronger ARPU is what drove the upward surprise on revenues and gross profit. The recent launch of Cashrewards MAX with ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) should turn FY22 into a year of both investment and rapid growth, the broker surmises.

The broker maintains its Buy rating and lowers its target price to $2 from $2.10 on modestly lower EPS forecasts over FY22-23. 

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $1.19
If CRW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 147% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DCN as Underperform (5) -

The FY21 result was weaker than Macquarie expected with lower revenue and higher costs resulting in a loss of -$8m versus the broker's $2m profit estimate.

While the mine plan received a life extension at Mt Morgans, higher capital and lower near-term production netted a -14% reduction to the broker's net asset value. As a result, the analyst reduces the target price to $0.24 from $0.28. The Underperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EOS as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi reports the half-yearly net loss of -$11m was significantly higher than its own forecast of a -$1m loss; lower-than-expected revenue is to blame.

Estimates have been cut. Target price drops by -13% to $4.50. Citi downgrades to Neutral/High Risk from Buy/High Risk as the analysts are growing concerned about delays in the award of new defence programs, potentially impacting on the company's ability to replenish its order book.

The current order book, explains the broker, runs out in FY23, while delayed cash receipts remain dependent on a single customer. Citi would like to see a few more extra customers being added, instead of having to rely on one single source for incoming cash.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.98
If EOS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLO as Hold (3) -

In the wake of FY21 results, Ord Minnett retains its Hold rating. Despite the challenging earnings outlook, the analyst can see potential positive catalysts emerging, given the inherent value in some of the core businesses. The target price falls to $1.65 from $1.91.

The normalised net loss of -$31.1m was a miss versus the broker's estimate for -$27.9m, highlighting a company in hibernation due to the pandemic.

Ord Minnett notes the jewel in the crown within the network are the Federal Government contracts for both Hotels and standard travel management services (TMC) services. These are thought to underpin group earnings to a degree.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If HLO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HLS as Equal-weight (3) -

FY21 results were higher than expected because of increased coronavirus testing. Morgan Stanley assumes testing remains elevated in the September quarter before falling sharply in the December quarter.

The company has indicated core pathology revenue rose slightly over the year. The sustainable improvement program remains in focus with the company targeting pathology EBIT of $180-190m in FY23.

Given the company's targets are long-range and require a reversal of recent performance, Morgan Stanley advises a "wait-and-see" approach. Equal-weight retained. Target is reduced to $4.60 from $4.65. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.97, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HVN as Buy (1) -

Harvey Norman Holdings' FY21 profit before tax was around 6% ahead of Citi's forecasts and marked a 67% year-on-year increase, to total $1,034m. 

According to Citi, underperformance in the July/August trading update is not indicative of the company's true underlying demand, and the broker continues to see favour in the furniture and home goods category given the continuing strong housing cycle and renovation pipeline.

The Buy rating and target price of $6.00 are retained. 

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.38 Difference: $0.62
If HVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HVN as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse found the FY21 result "incredibly strong" albeit in line with expectations. Investor attention has now turned to the lockdown-impacted trading in the first quarter of FY22.

While the broker suspects some would have been disappointed by the lack of capital management, the cash is probably going to be used for expansion. Offshore expansion and property are the key differentiators between Harvey Norman and household goods peers in Australia, suggests the broker.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $5.80 from $5.68.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.38 Difference: $0.42
If HVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HVN as Outperform (1) -

Following FY21 results, Macquarie increases EPS forecasts, partly due to the impacts of offshore expansion into FY23 and FY24. At a category level, there was strong demand for kitchen products, audio visual, furniture & bedding and technology.

Management has flagged increasing inventory reserves in light of persisting supply chain disruptions (chip shortages, factory delays, port & shipping issues), and ahead of what is expected to be a record Christmas. The broker retains its outperform rating and $6.40 target price.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.38 Difference: $1.02
If HVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HVN as Buy (1) -

FY21 results were ahead of UBS estimates. International operations were buoyant with Malaysia the most negatively affected by lockdowns.

EBITDA margins are expected to fall in FY22 from the record in FY21, yet settle at a higher level because of less tactical support combined with cost management, the broker assesses.

Despite current softness the company is confident in the outlook and the broker retains a Buy rating. Target rises to $7.00 from $6.50.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.38 Difference: $1.62
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

In a review of FY21 general insurance results, Macquarie feels the improving pricing cycle was key to gross written premium (GWP) growth in the second half for both Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group ((SUN)).

However, market share continues to be lost, which is holding back margin expansion, explains the broker. At current valuations it's felt Insurance Australia Group is fairly priced. A $400m buyback is already included in Macquarie's FY22 and FY23 forecasts.

The Neutral rating is maintained and the target price rises to $5.40 from $5.10.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $0.16
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ICQ as Hold (3) -

iCar Asia missed Morgans first half revenue forecast by -14.5%. The 31% revenue growth is considered a material slowdown from the 37% for the previous corresponding period. However, the main game remains the Carsome indicative bid of $0.55 per share.

The broker believes the process remains on track, with Carsome now having an effective 19.9% stake, and assumes a 75% likelihood of the bid eventuating in the $0.49 target price, edged down from $0.50 previously. the Hold rating is unchanged.

The analyst cautions the risk/reward is currently skewed to the downside, so more risk averse shareholders may want to reduce exposure at current prices.

Target price is $0.49 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.01
If ICQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Following a modest FY21 underlying earnings miss for IGO, Citi now points to the potential Western Areas ((WSA)) deal as a key catalyst for the company. The broker expects a deal to be earnings dilutive and cash flow accretive to IGO. 

IGO has reported a focus on Australian assets given covid impacts. 

Citi updates underlying earnings forecasts by 8% and 6% and net profit by 13% and 10% in FY22 and FY23 respectively.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $9.70 from $9.00.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $9.65 Difference: $0.05
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting downside of -17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

FY21 underlying EBITDA was in line with expectations. The main surprise was the -$24m in net finance costs compared with the broker's expectations of $2m in finance income. This meant net profit was below forecasts.

No changes to the capital management approach, with the pay-out of 15-25% of free cash flow maintained. There was also no detail on the takeover offer for Western Areas ((WSA)). Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $9.20 from $8.65.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $9.65 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting downside of -17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as No Rating (-1) -

The FY21 result was in-line with Macquarie's expectations, with the dividend a positive surprise. Earnings (EBITDA) and operating cash flow increased around 10% year-on-year. FY22 guidance was unchanged. The 10cps dividend was well ahead of the analyst's forecast.

Delayed realised pricing on the Greenbushes contract has driven a -24% decrease in the broker's FY22 EPS forecast.

Due to research restrictions, Macquarie cannot provide a valuation at present.

Current Price is $9.65. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting downside of -17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

FY21 results were in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. The dividend policy has been renewed to 15-25% of free cash flow when liquidity is less than $500m.

Morgan Stanley also updates its forecasts for spodumene prices which results in an uplift to FY22-24 estimates for earnings per share.

Underweight rating retained. The target price is raised to $8.40 from $7.50. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $9.65 Difference: minus $1.25 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting downside of -17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHC as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Japara Healthcare's FY21 result fell short of Ord Minnett's expectations though the key focus for both investors and the management team is the recently announced $1.40 takeover offer from Calvary Health Care.

The broker raises its target to $1.40 from $1.04 and lowers its rating to Hold from Accumulate.

The analyst cuts the FY22 earnings (EBIT) forecast by -35% to reflect ongoing occupancy challenges though expects earnings (EBITDA) to lift in FY22, supported by the additional $10 per day basic fee supplement.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.03
If JHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting downside of -14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LAU as Hold (3) -

The FY21 result was in-line with guidance and Morgans forecasts. Operating cashflow was considered very strong and the performance of the Rural business was a highlight, while Transport earnings (EBIT) fell -0.7% year-on-year. The broker lifts its target to $0.42 from $0.40.

Management noted strong demand for its road and rail services and will consider M&A opportunities that strategically fit within the group. Further growth in Rural is targeted. With the stock trading in-line with the analyst's revised valuation, the Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.04
If LAU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LFG as Outperform (1) -

The FY21 result  was around 5% ahead of Macquarie's EPS expectations. It's thought funding costs should support net interest margins (NIMs), despite front book pricing competition.

While no specific FY22 guidance was provided, credit growth is expected to remain positive. The broker maintains its Outperform rating and lowers its target price to $7.98 from $8.36.

Target price is $7.98 Current Price is $7.30 Difference: $0.68
If LFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.13, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MDC as Add (1) -

FY21 results were marginally below Morgans forecasts, reflecting a difficult trading period and delays to clinical results. Management noted a pickup in partnering interest for the NanoCelle technology, with discussions ongoing with a large number of companies.

While positive on the partnering news, the analyst cautions that timing is critical in order to balance expected clinical program expenditure versus the current cash balance.

The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged and the target price falls to $0.29 from $0.39 on lower sales forecasts and additional assumed dilution, explains the analyst.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.11
If MDC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MTO as Add (1) -

Motorcycle Holdings FY21 result was at the top-end of guidance that was pre-announced in May with earnings up 61% on the previous period.

All divisions posted growth, and the company exited FY21 in a neutral net debt position, with $35m of undrawn debt facilities available.

Morgans believes the group’s goodwill impairment testing schedule provides reasonable clarity around earnings targets for FY22 and beyond, with the broker sitting roughly in line with this.

The broker notes while lockdowns are having an impact on trading in early FY22, demand/forward order book remains strong, and gross profit margins are expected to broadly remain elevated for at least 12 months.

The broker has lowered earnings per share (EPS) forecasts by -2% in FY22 and FY23, with higher margin forecasts in FY23 offset by assumed lockdown impacts.

The Add rating is maintained and the target increases to $3.69 from $3.18.

Target price is $3.69 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.41
If MTO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Following the August reporting season, Ord Minnett believes National Australia Bank is well positioned to drive top-line growth,
with strong net promoter scores (NPS) in the Australian consumer and business segments.

The broker upgrades its rating to Accumulate from Hold and feels the bank offers more stable margin trends than peers, given
less mortgage headwinds and a positive outlook for small business. The target price rises to $29.50 from $28.20.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $27.73 Difference: $1.77
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.19, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NTD as Hold (3) -

In the wake of FY21 results, Morgans believes the strategy of diversifying and building scale in recent years is now paying dividends. The broker retains its Hold rating and increases its price target to $1.35 from $1.21.

A strong underlying business performance coupled with an 11-month contribution from the T4U acquisition underpinned the result, explains the broker.

Management predicts heightened sales demand will taper in periods ahead though remains confident FY21 earnings are sustainable, given the combination of synergies and restructuring.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.02
If NTD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PAC as Buy (1) -

The FY21 result was in-line with Ord Minnett's forecasts and delivered 5% profit growth in Australian dollar terms (17% in US dollar terms). Management sees the fund raising environment improving. A final dividend of 26cps (fully franked) was just ahead of the 25cps forecast.

The broker increases its EPS forecasts by 3-5% and raises its target price to $7.50 from $6.70. The Buy rating is retained given a discount to valuation and an around 15% forecast return for each of the next two years.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.20 Difference: $1.3
If PAC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The FY21 underlying loss was wider than Macqaurie had expected though impairment reversals and asset sales swung the underlying loss to a small profit. 

While the company is expected to return to producer status in FY22, the broker lowers its rating to Neutral from Outperform, as the stock has risen around 50% in the past two months. The target price rises to $0.21 from $0.20, on an improved earnings outloook.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.01
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PAN as Add (1) -

After a full review of operating assumptions following management discussions and updates at diggers and dealers, Morgans has re-cut the production model for Panoramic Resources, with key changes to production profile and ore dilution assumptions.

Two key changes have been made to the broker's base case for the Savannah mine. Firstly, mined grade and tonnage assumptions have been revised to better reflect the latest updates from the company. Secondly, the broker has moved the ore dilution factor from 22% to 17%.

The net effect is higher head grade and annual metal production than forecast by the company, with minimal additional costs.

Add rating is unchanged and the target increases to $0.24 from $019.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.04
If PAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PBH as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse found no major changes in the FY21 results that would de-rail the potential for the company to triple its market access. While the company missed out on Arizona, Credit Suisse regards this as a one-off with the issue pertaining to the partner rather than the licence application.

The broker expects PointsBet Holdings will add around a dozen markets over the next 12-18 months of which New York is key. Outperform maintained. Target steady at $13.30.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $10.38 Difference: $2.92
If PBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REG as Add (1) -

Regis Healthcare's FY21 results were slightly ahead of Morgans expectations, with performance in the second half continuing to improve, while occupancy levels remain below longer-term averages.

A final dividend of 4.63cps (50% franked) was declared, bringing total dividends to 6.63 cps, which represents 100% of net profit.

Given covid uncertainty, no formal FY22 guidance was provided.

To account for imputed income on RADs which Morgans assumes remain constant as FY21, the broker has adjusted net profit forecasts up 20.8%, and 24.4% for FY22 and FY23 respectively.

Add rating is unchanged and the target price increases to $2.33 from $2.23.

Target price is $2.33 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.26
If REG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REG as Hold (3) -

Despite challenging conditions Ord Minnett assesses a solid operating result in FY21, as the effects from covid were offset by one-off funding boosts. The full-year dividend of 6.6cps was above the broker's estimate of 6cps.

FY21 net profit of $19.9m was short of the analyst’s estimate of $37.5m, largely due to higher finance charges, which partly reflected a change in accounting treatment.

With the sector on the cusp of significant regulatory and funding reforms, Ord Minnett is confident the operating environment will improve and lifts its target to $2.25 from $2. The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.18
If REG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RHP as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Rhipe's FY21 operating profit of $18m, was in-line with guidance and Ord Minnett’s forecast, highlighting solid momentum over the second half though margins were lower than expected. There was no final divided.

The main focus for the analyst is the takeover offer from Norwegian IT advisory firm Crayon Group at $2.50 a share. Directors have unanimously recommended the deal to shareholders.

A competing bid is unlikely to emerge, given the current offer includes a ‘no-shop’ clause and the broker lowers its target price to $2.50 from $2.57 to align with the bid. The rating is lowered to Hold from Accumulate.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: $0
If RHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMC as Outperform (1) -

Resimac Group's FY21 earnings per share was 2.8% ahead of Macquarie's expectations, thanks to an improvement in funding costs offsetting mortgage pricing competition.

The company is guiding to a medium-term target of $9bn in settlements per annum by FY24, which Macquarie notes materially exceeds its forecast of around $5bn by the same time. The company expects stable funding markets and a lower cost of funds to allow for aggressive growth in FY22 and beyond. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.84 from $2.81. 

Target price is $2.84 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $0.41
If RMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes that Regis Resources' FY21 net profit of $146m was in line with the broker's forecast, but a -23% year-on-year decrease given higher depreciation and amortisation. Revenue was up 8% year-on-year to $819m following the acquisition of a 30% stake in Tropicana. 

The broker further highlights the timeline for the McPhillamy's project looks uncertain. The company is guiding to an additional -$29m in capital expenditure for FY22 while Citi pushes out major capital spend to FY23.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.70 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.23
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 39.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has described Regis Resources' FY21 results as mixed, with a beat on the broker's underlying earnings forecast but a -6% miss on net profit.

The broker notes while lower-than-expected operating costs drove a higher underlying earnings result, depreciation and amortisation was up 32% on forecasts, offsetting earnings and driving the net profit miss. 

Macquarie notes Regis Resources' growth outlook is dominated by the McPhillamys project. While management is confident of government support, Macquarie reduces its earnings per share forecast by -55% in FY23 given the delay in commercial production. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.60 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.13
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 39.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Overweight (1) -

FY21 net profit was below Morgan Stanley's estimates because of higher depreciation. The pay-out was below expectations as the potential for expenditure on McPhillamys approaches. The broker points out the company has no explicit dividend policy.

The company expects a decision on McPhillamys in the first half. Overweight maintained. Target is $3.45. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.98
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 39.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Add (1) -

Regis Resources FY21 result was broadly in line with Morgans' estimates, while net profit was higher than the broker's previous update, driven by the timing of stamp duty payment related to the Tropicana purchase, which was included in the broker's FY21 estimates.

While production and cost figures had been pre-reported, and held few surprises, the key change from FY21 notes Morgans was a sharp increase in D&A charges.

These D&A charges went up 74% year-on-year, driven by an increase in underlying mine property assets, up 290% year-on-year following the acquisition of the company's Tropicana stake and bringing new mines into full production at Duketon.

FY22 is forecast to get off to a soft start, with planned mill shutdowns in the current quarter along with preventative geotechnical works across several open pits.

The broker maintains its Add rating and target price of $3.93.

Target price is $3.93 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $1.46
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 39.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

FY21 EBITDA was below Credit Suisse estimates. Slightly higher costs across the asset base caused the miss to estimates.

The broker still considers Sandfire Resources in a solid position and there is ample liquidity to fully fund the equity contribution to growth expenditure in Botswana. Outperform rating retained. Target is $8.55.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $6.50 Difference: $2.05
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.67, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Sandfire Resources' FY21 results were largely in line with Macquarie's expectations, with copper prices driving a material increase. Revenue and underlying earnings were up 24% and 33% year-on-year respectively, although a final dividend of 34 cents was a -6% miss on expectations.

The broker notes that production outlook is positive for DeGrussa, expecting 64-68,000 tonnes of copper and 30-34,000 ounces of gold for FY22, and development at Motheo is a focus. Macquarie expects initial production from Motheo in FY23.

The broker updates earnings per share forecasts by 2%, 0%, -3% and -1% through to FY25. The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $9.70 from $9.80.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $6.50 Difference: $3.2
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.67, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Overweight (1) -

FY21 results were mixed with underlying net profit below Morgan Stanley's estimates and the dividend considered soft albeit in line. The broker believes the stock is showing compelling value, implying a copper price of US$3.13/lb.

While DeGrussa is likely to end in the first quarter of FY23, Black Butte and Motheo should continue production, although at a lower rate. Doolgunna also offers highly prospective exploration value, comments Morgan Stanley.

Overweight maintained. Target is reduced to $7.95 from $8.10. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $6.50 Difference: $1.45
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.67, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SFR as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Helped by stronger copper prices and Morgans' over-estimation of expensed exploration/studies, Sandfire Resources‘ FY21 earnings and net profit were 7% and 10% ahead of the broker's expectations respectively.

The 34cps fully franked dividend far exceeded Morgans' estimate (13cps), with the FY21 payout of 44% far above the company's 30% “guide”.

Morgans notes the company looks comfortably funded - with $513m cash ex-dividend, and no debt - through Motheo construction (-$328m capex, FY24 ramp-up), with capex ramping up in FY22.

The broker forecast the company to generate $525m in free cash flow over the balance of Degrussa’s mine life to October 2022. Material earnings upgrades across FY22-23 are supported primarily by higher copper price assumptions.

Morgans upgrades Sandfire Resources to Add from Hold and the target is increased to $7.61 from $6.43.

Target price is $7.61 Current Price is $6.50 Difference: $1.11
If SFR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.67, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Hold (3) -

Sandfire Resources' FY21 underlying net profit was below both Ord Minnett’s forecast and the consensus estimate due to higher costs, mainly comprised of exploration spending. A final dividend of 26cps was declared. The target price is lowered to $7.20 from $7.50.

The analyst feels the company remains one of the few pure copper plays with multiple growth options and maintains the Hold rating.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.50 Difference: $0.7
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.67, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Select Harvests provided a positive update on almond prices. Prices have increased 7% to $7.25-7.75/kg. The FY21 crop is committed at a range of $6.25-6.75/kg.

UBS believes the improving price trajectory reflects a continuation of the severe Californian drought which is likely to create supply-side challenges. The company has reaffirmed FY21 crop volumes and noted good progress on the FY22 crop.

Select Harvests has also announced the sale of the Lucky and Sunsol brands for $1.5m. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $9.50 from $8.70.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.70 Difference: $0.8
If SHV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SKI as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform following the recommendation by the board of the offer from KKR/Ontario Teachers/PSP Investments.

Under the terms of the offer shareholders will receive a total of $2.95 a share. Meanwhile, first half results were in line with expectations. Target is raised to $2.89 from $2.65.

Target price is $2.89 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $0.07
If SKI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.71, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SSG as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

The FY21 result was in-line with recent company guidance, with earnings (EBITDA) up strongly and operating margins at elevated levels, notes Ord Minnett.

Trading has been significantly impacted by current lockdowns, with sales revenue down -7.3% year-to-date, though more recent sales have improved due to online sales growth. The broker lowers its rating to Hold from Buy and the target price falls to $1.20 from $1.53.

The analyst believes the company retains a strong market position in the personal care segment, generating strong cash flows and high returns on capital. 

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.13
If SSG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

In a review of FY21 general insurance results, Macquarie feels the improving pricing cycle was key to gross written premium (GWP) growth in the second half for both Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and Suncorp Group.

However, market share continues to be lost, which is holding back margin expansion, explains the broker. With the underlying insurance trading ratios bottoming in FY21, GWP growth accelerating and a $250m buy-back about to commence, Suncorp Group is preferred. 

The Outperform rating is maintained and the target price rises to $14.30 from $13.60.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $12.48 Difference: $1.82
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.42, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WEB as Outperform (1) -

Webjet has reported WebBeds is now profitable on a month-over-month basis, with domestic sales now representing 46% of total value.

Macquarie notes Webjet has shifted its strategy towards domestic opportunities, and while this has seen a decline in average booking value, it is offset by increased bookings activity.

Macquarie also notes while Webjet is being impacted by current lockdowns, strong and immediate rebound trends are expected once restrictions are lifted.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.45 from $6.35.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $0.76
If WEB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.84, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Equal-weight (3) -

Webjet, at its AGM, has noted B2B was profitable at the seasonal peak of July-September. B2C is still loss-making.

Morgan Stanley envisages a working capital rebound and operating leverage associated with the rebound are the key positives for a stock which has suffered severe dilution during the pandemic.

Yet the broker remains sceptical of the B2B bull case which would require Webjet taking market leadership from the incumbent.

The Equal-weight rating and $4.30 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: minus $1.39 (current price is over target).
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.84, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WEB as Hold (3) -

Following Webjet's trading update, Morgans notes that WebBeds was materially more positive than its last trading update in April on the back of a domestic travel recovery in the US and in Europe.

But while this business is now profitable, Morgans also notes that due to rising border restrictions in A&NZ, both the online travel agency and Online Republic have gone backwards and are now unprofitable.

While Morgans forecast the group to be modestly earnings positive in FY22, given the quantum of the company's D&A and interest expense, the broker forecasts a net loss.

The broker has upgraded FY24 forecasts to be in line with Webjet's strategy to reduce the group’s cost base by at least -20% once it gets back to scale.

Hold is maintained and the target price increases to $6.20 from $5.10.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $0.51
If WEB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.84, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WEB as Buy (1) -

For Ord Minnett's initial response to Webjet's trading update, see yesterday's Report.

The broker sees the company as a structural winner from the pandemic. EPS estimates have been downgraded materially in FY22, given the domestic travel situation though only modestly in FY23 and FY24. The price target rises to $7.12 from $7.02.

Ord Minnett expects Webjet to deliver a circa -$15m earnings loss in first half FY22 followed by a return to profitability in second half FY22.

Target price is $7.12 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $1.43
If WEB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.84, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Webjet has experienced a strong recovery in Australia when domestic borders are open and outperformed the broader market. Hence, UBS believes the increased momentum at around Australian vaccinations provides for a better medium-term outlook.

Business-to business (B2B) has return to profitability in the second quarter although admittedly this is a peak quarter.

Still, UBS believes Webjet will benefit from strong pent-up demand over the next 18-24 months with scope to take material share in both the B2B and B2C markets. Buy rating unchanged. Target is raised to $6.35 from $5.90.

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $0.66
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.84, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources