Australian Broker Call

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February 12, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CGF - CHALLENGER Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
Downgrade to Sell from Lighten Ord Minnett
NST - NORTHERN STAR Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
SUN - SUNCORP Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
AVN  AVENTUS GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.91

Macquarie rates AVN as Outperform (1) -

Aventus Group posted a solid result, the broker suggests, in line with expectations and ahead of retail peers. The REIT is making incremental steps towards gearing reduction which the broker sees as positive.

Full year guidance has been tightened towards the upper end of the prior range mainly due to a lower cost of debt. Stable earnings growth on offer with a reasonable yield. Outperform retained, target rises to $3.45 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.54
If AVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of -17.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.30 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AVN as Add (1) -

First half results were in line with expectations. FY20 guidance was reaffirmed for earnings growth of 3-4% and a distribution of 17.1%.

Morgans continues to believe the portfolio is well-positioned because of low vacancy rates and incentives as well as sustainable rents.

Add rating maintained. Target rises to $3.03 from $2.86.

Target price is $3.03 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.12
If AVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.10 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of -17.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AVN as Neutral (3) -

The business continues to benefit from low rents and an increase in the range of tenants in large format retail assets. Comparable income growth is outperforming peers, UBS observes.

First half results were in line with expectations and the distribution yield remains attractive. However, the broker assesses the management strategies are priced in and retains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $2.76 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.76 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If AVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.10 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of -17.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.70 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT  BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $2.21

UPDATED

Citi rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Pre-tax profit underperformed expectations although Citi assesses the result was mixed and not as bad as initially suggested.

The surprise increase in capital expenditure for FY20 has captured investor interest, and the extent to which this and other disclosures affect future free cash flow.

The broker envisages some upside risks to guidance on higher oil volumes but notes execution risks are pronounced.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $2.44 from $2.65.

Target price is $2.44 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.23
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 27.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of -0.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 24.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse is now more comfortable with the increased capital expenditure being undertaken and more optimistic regarding the Western Flank and the Perth Basin.

An upgrade to the five-year production outlook and reserves is considered likely in mid 2020. Still the broker wonders whether more capital expenditure will creep into the mix post FY20.

As the market is already pricing in a degree of long-term upside, the broker retains a Neutral rating. Target is steady at $2.49.

Target price is $2.49 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.28
If BPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 25.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of -0.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 26.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates BPT as Underperform (5) -

Beach Energy reported in line with expectation. The company believes it can achieve full year earnings guidance but it will require a strong second half, the broker notes. In the meantime, Brent crude and east coast gas prices have notably fallen, leading to a fall of some -30% in the share price this year.

The broker believes prices remain a risk and is cautious on the stock on a five-year outlook. Underperform retained, target falls to $2.30 from $2.50 on lower price assumptions.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.09
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of -0.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.60 cents and EPS of 27.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Underweight (5) -

The company has lowered near-term production forecasts at its first half result. Net profit was below Morgan Stanley's forecasts.

Capital expenditure guidance has been increased to $875-950m. The broker considers the medium-term outlook is sound but the equity has run hard and risks are building.

Underweight maintained. Target is $2.00. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of -0.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates BPT as Hold (3) -

The company has lowered FY20 production guidance to 27-28 mmboe but has maintained operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $1.28-1.35bn.

Morgans notes oil demand has been affected by the reaction to the coronavirus and lowers oil price assumptions.

While the stock has fallen -10% over the last month, the broker remains neutral, believing the company needs to build confidence so it can successfully deliver on its growth program.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.28 from $2.32

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.07
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of -0.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates BPT as Hold (3) -

First half net profit was slightly below forecasts. Ord Minnett believes the market reaction to the result has highlighted the concerns around capital expenditure.

Concerns centre on whether investors will wait longer to obtain cash returns from growth projects. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.45 from $2.65.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.24
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of -0.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA  COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks

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Overnight Price: $88.18

UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -

In an initial reaction to today's interim report release, UBS analysts note CommBank has released a "solid" result, some 2% above market consensus, but also with weak Net Interest Margin (NIM) guidance for the second half.

UBS finds CommBank continues to outperform its peers in Australia operationally, but maybe today's guidance might weigh on consensus forecasts upgrades post today. The broker announces it is not changing its $70 valuation for the shares.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $88.18 Difference: minus $18.18 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.41, suggesting downside of -16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 431.00 cents and EPS of 457.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 481.3, implying annual growth of -0.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 431.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 372.00 cents and EPS of 454.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 497.7, implying annual growth of 3.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 418.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF  CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $10.12

Citi rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects the company will beat its revised FY20 pre-tax profit guidance, which at present is at the high-end of its $500-550m range. The broker lifts estimates for earnings per share in FY20 by 7%.

Although there is no precise reason why product margin in life products held up relatively well in the first half, the broker notes margins have apparently improved. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $9.80 from $8.30.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $10.12 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 60.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.7, implying annual growth of 11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 62.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.7, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

First half results were in line with expectations. FY20 guidance has been upgraded for pre-tax profit of around $550m.

Credit Suisse notes weak domestic sales persisted in the second quarter but Japanese sales countered this.

The result has appeased concerns around margins and provides greater confidence, Credit Suisse suggests, although the 14% increase in the share price may have been somewhat of an over-reaction.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $9.40 from $7.20.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $10.12 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.7, implying annual growth of 11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.7, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CGF as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

After a tough operating environment in the past 12-18 months, Challenger has delivered a strong result. Full year profit is expected to be around the top end of the guidance range. Macquarie believes this might prove conservative.

The broker continues to like the company's long term growth thematic, but the stock has risen 60% since June and 25% in 2020, including 14% yesterday. Downgrade to Neutral. Target rises to $10.00 from $8.50.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.12 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 58.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.7, implying annual growth of 11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 36.50 cents and EPS of 64.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.7, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -

The company's retail sales and margins proved more resilient than Morgan Stanley expected in the first half. Funds management also delivered growth.

The broker considers the valuation is now full and retains an Equal-weight rating. Target is raised to $8.60 from $7.50. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $10.12 Difference: minus $1.52 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.7, implying annual growth of 11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.7, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates CGF as Hold (3) -

Net profit was ahead of expectations in the first half. The revised commentary points to a FY20 result for net profit at the top end of the target guidance, Morgans suggests.

The broker believes the first half results were a first step in recovering some momentum but requires more evidence of improving sales to become more positive.

FY20 and FY21 estimates for earnings per share are lifted by 4%. Target rises to $8.85 from $7.99. Hold ratings maintained.

Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $10.12 Difference: minus $1.27 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 56.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.7, implying annual growth of 11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 36.70 cents and EPS of 59.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.7, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CGF as Downgrade to Sell from Lighten (5) -

First half results were ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast. FY20 guidance appears conservative but the broker suspects the company will struggle to provide an adequate return on capital, given the inherent risks and the business model.

As the stock is considered too expensive, Ord Minnett downgrades to Sell from Lighten. Target is steady at $7.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $10.12 Difference: minus $2.62 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.7, implying annual growth of 11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.7, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

First half results were ahead of estimates. However, with the result boosted by a one-off asset gain, the drivers are low quality in the broker's view.

Hence, with growth in the core domestic annuity franchise under pressure, the broker assesses the value upside is limited and retains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $9.56 from $8.25.

Target price is $9.56 Current Price is $10.12 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.7, implying annual growth of 11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.7, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COH  COCHLEAR LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $233.11

Citi rates COH as Sell (5) -

The company has lowered net profit guidance for FY20 because of the expected impact of coronavirus on greater China.

Citi notes the lower end of guidance, at $270-290m, anticipates a significant decline in sales in the second half. At this stage no impact is expected on other countries.

Citi downgrades FY20 estimates for earnings per share by -6% and FY21 by -3%. The broker retains a Sell rating and $198 target.

Target price is $198.00 Current Price is $233.11 Difference: minus $35.11 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $205.29, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 355.00 cents and EPS of 504.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 493.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 348.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 400.00 cents and EPS of 573.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 553.3, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 382.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates COH as Neutral (3) -

Management has downgraded FY20 underlying net profit guidance to $270-290m because of coronavirus.

Hospitals across greater China are currently deferring elective surgeries, including cochlear implants, to limit the risk of infection.

Management does not believe the coronavirus will have an impact to operations outside of China.

The magnitude of the downgrade relative to the earnings exposure to China, Credit Suisse suspects, presents downside risk to consensus first-half forecasts.

Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $234 from $240.

Target price is $234.00 Current Price is $233.11 Difference: $0.89
If COH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $205.29, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 341.00 cents and EPS of 489.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 493.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 348.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 378.00 cents and EPS of 542.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 553.3, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 382.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates COH as Underperform (5) -

Cochlear has downgraded guidance due to the virus impact. The company noted it suffered a similar drop in sales from SARS before a swift rebound. The broker agrees the impact is likely to be temporary, albeit visibility is limited at this stage.

Macquarie retains Underperform, maintaining a pre-virus view that competition is heightened and not reflected in the share price.Target unchanged at $185.

Target price is $185.00 Current Price is $233.11 Difference: minus $48.11 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $205.29, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 339.00 cents and EPS of 484.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 493.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 348.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 380.00 cents and EPS of 543.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 553.3, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 382.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates COH as Equal-weight (3) -

Cochlear has downgraded FY20 net profit guidance to $270-290m, representing 2-9% growth on FY19. The downgrade stems from the coronavirus impact in greater China as surgeries are being delayed in this market.

Morgan Stanley expects strong FY20 unit growth in other markets from the recovery in market share on the launch of the Nucleus Profile Plus. Target is $233. Equal-weight rating. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $233.00 Current Price is $233.11 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $205.29, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 382.10 cents and EPS of 517.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 493.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 348.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 581.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 553.3, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 382.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates COH as Hold (3) -

FY20 profit guidance is downgraded by up to -7% because of the impact of coronavirus in greater China. Management has not witnessed any impact outside of greater China and is not making any changes to the cost base.

While lowering FY20-22 estimates Morgans increases valuation multiples and the target rises to $222 from $207. Hold rating maintained.

Target price is $222.00 Current Price is $233.11 Difference: minus $11.11 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $205.29, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 340.00 cents and EPS of 491.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 493.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 348.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 379.00 cents and EPS of 547.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 553.3, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 382.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates COH as Lighten (4) -

The company has updated guidance for a strong first half when it reports on February 18, but suspects FY20 will be challenged by coronavirus and the deferral of implant surgery in China.

Ord Minnett expects the weakness in 2020 will be short lived, although the current share price makes little allowance for the risk of protracted or more widespread impact.

The broker retains a Lighten rating and $180 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $180.00 Current Price is $233.11 Difference: minus $53.11 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $205.29, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 335.00 cents and EPS of 483.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 493.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 348.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 560.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 553.3, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 382.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates COH as Sell (5) -

FY20 net profit guidance is reduced by -5% as surgery in China is delayed because of the coronavirus outbreak. Net profit guidance is now $270-290m.

UBS lowers implant volume growth assumptions in Asia-Pacific for the second half. Sell rating and $185 target maintained.

Target price is $185.00 Current Price is $233.11 Difference: minus $48.11 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $205.29, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 345.00 cents and EPS of 485.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 493.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 348.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.2.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 376.00 cents and EPS of 527.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 553.3, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 382.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU  COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $17.46

Citi rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

In initial response to today's release of interim financials, Citi analysts find diluted EPS has fallen -17% year-on-year, also missing their forecast. FY20 guidance was reaffirmed, however. The analysts highlight this implies/requires a strong second half performance.

The analysts note the tax rate should be lower in H2. In addition, it appears the Equatex business is tracking above expectations.

Target price is $18.30 Current Price is $17.46 Difference: $0.84
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.25, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 45.25 cents and EPS of 96.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 46.99 cents and EPS of 100.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.3, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DOW  DOWNER EDI LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $7.29

Citi rates DOW as Buy (1) -

On initial assessment of today's interim report release, Citi analysts described it as "in-line" while also noting a number of bidders have announced themselves for the company's mining services operations.

Dividend was better, but the operational cashflow marks a large miss, comment the analysts. Given multiple troubled contracts, also responsible for the dismal cash conversion, management reiterating guidance for FY20 should be taken as a positive, suggest the analysts.

Citi is retaining a positive view.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.29 Difference: $0.71
If DOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.90 cents and EPS of 39.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.1, implying annual growth of -1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.40 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.0, implying annual growth of 25.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ECX  ECLIPX GROUP LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $1.80

Morgan Stanley rates ECX as Equal-weight (3) -

The AGM update revealed positive income growth and cost reductions in the fleet division while momentum is continuing in the novated leasing business, supported by increased client penetration.

The latter remains the key growth driver in Morgan Stanley's view. Equal-weight rating. Industry view is In-Line. Target is $1.70.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If ECX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.60 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 12.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 18.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ECX as Buy (1) -

UBS found some incremental positives in the AGM update as the simplification and cost optimisation strategies are on track.

Core business is stable and novated leasing is experiencing solid growth.

The broker envisages upside risks to earnings. Buy rating and $2.20 target maintained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.4
If ECX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 18.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG  INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $6.89

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

In an initial response to today's interim report release, Citi analysts find the performance fell short of their forecasts, with higher interest expense and lower investment income on shareholder funds to blame.

The insurer has downgraded full year guidance on the back of recent heavy rainfall. Citi believes any share price weakness should be limited given the one-off nature of the factor that triggered the guidance downgrade.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $6.89 Difference: $1.51
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.48, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 34.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.3, implying annual growth of -3.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 40.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX  JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $31.65

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

Citi observes the third quarter was strong as, while Europe and Australia face contracting markets, fibre cement penetration is encouraging.

North America demand continues to accelerate. Assuming system growth of around 2%, Citi estimates primary demand growth is running at around 6%.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $36 target.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $31.65 Difference: $4.35
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.79, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 70.84 cents and EPS of 118.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 80.96 cents and EPS of 134.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.0, implying annual growth of 15.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

Third quarter results were largely favourable, in Morgan Stanley's view. While Europe missed expectations and delivery on that front remains important, the broker emphasises North America is the cornerstone of the business.

North America continues to impress and the broker retains an Overweight rating, Cautious industry view and $35.90 target.

Target price is $35.90 Current Price is $31.65 Difference: $4.25
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.79, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 59.27 cents and EPS of 118.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 69.39 cents and EPS of 140.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.0, implying annual growth of 15.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates JHX as Accumulate (2) -

Third quarter net profit was below forecasts because of higher-than-expected corporate costs.

Overall, the broker still believes investors should be pleased with the result which showed very strong volume growth in North America.

Accumulate rating and $33 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $31.65 Difference: $1.35
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.79, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 117.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 137.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.0, implying annual growth of 15.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MP1  MEGAPORT LIMITED

Cloud services

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Overnight Price: $10.81

Ord Minnett rates MP1 as Hold (3) -

On initial assessment, Ord Minnett finds today's released set of interim financials was in-line with both market consensus and the broker's own forecasts. Gross profit beat expectations but the broker points at the adoption of AASB16.

No quantitative guidance was provided by company management, with Ord Minnett noting management has maintained their 380 data centre install target by the end of FY20. The CFO has announced his resignation.

The broker suggests the business remains well funded for the planned rollout over the next 3 years.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $10.81 Difference: $0.49
If MP1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.48, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of minus 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 51.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -22.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of minus 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 83.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MQG  MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $148.29

Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -

FY20 guidance has been maintained. Despite positive longer-term drivers, Citi finds tangible near-term challenges.

The broker suspects the market is implying around 15% earnings upside in the stock and considers this too high.

Management has noted that no large asset realisations are scheduled for the fourth quarter and this reduces the possibility of a material beat to guidance.

Sell rating and $123.50 target maintained.

Target price is $123.50 Current Price is $148.29 Difference: minus $24.79 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $138.82, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 580.00 cents and EPS of 843.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 857.8, implying annual growth of -2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 587.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 580.00 cents and EPS of 799.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 870.0, implying annual growth of 1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 600.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie Group has reiterated prior guidance, expecting FY20 to be slightly weaker than FY19. Credit Suisse continues to believe the guidance is conservative and anticipates growth of around 2% in FY20.

This is based on the fact that each division's guidance has not changed over the year and the commodities business has benefited from strong market conditions which have not, historically, persisted to this extent.

Neutral rating and $135 target maintained.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $148.29 Difference: minus $13.29 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $138.82, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 615.00 cents and EPS of 901.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 857.8, implying annual growth of -2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 587.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 625.00 cents and EPS of 921.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 870.0, implying annual growth of 1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 600.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Macquarie Group has not revised guidance at its trading update, expecting FY20 will be "slightly down" on FY19.

Yet Morgan Stanley notes commodity market conditions remain strong and this is a positive, given this environment was not expected to persist for so long.

The broker suspects there remains upside risk to guidance. Overweight rating and In-Line industry view. Target is $143.

Target price is $143.00 Current Price is $148.29 Difference: minus $5.29 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $138.82, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 585.00 cents and EPS of 840.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 857.8, implying annual growth of -2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 587.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 600.00 cents and EPS of 853.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 870.0, implying annual growth of 1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 600.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

While some may be disappointed with the lack of an upgrade to the FY20 outlook at the December quarter update, Ord Minnett considers this simply Macquarie Group being conservative.

The broker continues to look for 2% earnings growth. Ongoing strength in commodities and base & performance fees were the highlights. Moreover, the headwind from lower asset realisation income has been well flagged.

The broker maintains an Accumulate rating and $149 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $149.00 Current Price is $148.29 Difference: $0.71
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $138.82, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 595.00 cents and EPS of 859.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 857.8, implying annual growth of -2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 587.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 610.00 cents and EPS of 873.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 870.0, implying annual growth of 1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 600.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

The third quarter was broadly in line with expectations. Conditions remain favourable within all businesses and management continues to benefit from higher base and performance fees.

UBS considers this a strong business with unique opportunities. However, given absolute valuation, the broker retains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $142 from $130.

Target price is $142.00 Current Price is $148.29 Difference: minus $6.29 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $138.82, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 586.00 cents and EPS of 861.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 857.8, implying annual growth of -2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 587.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 586.00 cents and EPS of 874.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 870.0, implying annual growth of 1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 600.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST  NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $13.73

Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes the first half was strong with revenue in line and an operating earnings (EBITDA) margin of 40%.

Going forward, the second half will be the company's first at a 1.1mozpa run rate, adding to its global appeal.

Citi maintains a Neutral rating and $12.70 target.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $13.73 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.54, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 60.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.4, implying annual growth of 147.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 80.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.4, implying annual growth of 43.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates NST as Underperform (5) -

First half net profit beat Credit Suisse estimates because of toll treatment contributions that were not discernible from the quarterly reports.

FY20 guidance is unchanged and a stronger second half is expected. Underperform rating and $10.30 target maintained.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $13.73 Difference: minus $3.43 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.54, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.38 cents and EPS of 67.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.4, implying annual growth of 147.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 33.64 cents and EPS of 93.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.4, implying annual growth of 43.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star's first half profit modestly beat expectations. The game has nonetheless changed with the Super Pit acquisition, which, along with the ramp-up of Pogo, should see the miner's production rate hit 1moz per annum in the second half, the broker notes.

Updates on Super Pit wall remediation and Pogo momentum are now the key catalysts. Outperform retained, target rises to $15 from $14 on a valuation roll-forward.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.73 Difference: $1.27
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.54, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 50.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.4, implying annual growth of 147.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 74.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.4, implying annual growth of 43.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates NST as Underweight (5) -

First half results were better than expected at the earnings level. The dividend was ahead of Morgan Stanley's forecasts.

The broker considers this a quality business but notes the risk to achieving full-year cost guidance. Target is $10.25. Underweight. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $13.73 Difference: minus $3.48 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.54, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.4, implying annual growth of 147.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.4, implying annual growth of 43.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates NST as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Underlying first half operating earnings (EBITDA) were ahead of forecasts because of higher tolling revenue and lower costs.

The share price has lifted 42% since December, UBS observes, outperforming the gold price. Hence, while the production outlook is firm, the shares are considered fair value.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target is raised to $14.00 from $13.75.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $13.73 Difference: $0.27
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.54, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.4, implying annual growth of 147.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.4, implying annual growth of 43.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS  NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $21.58

UBS rates NWS as Buy (1) -

Second quarter results were ahead of UBS estimates at the operating earnings (EBITDA) line.

FY20 forecasts are lowered by -2% to reflect lower volumes at REA Group ((REA)), lower subscribers at Foxtel and softness in book publishing.

The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $24.00 from $23.75.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $21.58 Difference: $2.42
If NWS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.62, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.91 cents and EPS of 69.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.3.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.91 cents and EPS of 60.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.3, implying annual growth of 8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $2.56

Morgans rates S32 as Add (1) -

Morgans remains cautious about global miners with a large exposure to manufacturing activity and trims FY20 forecasts for South32.

However, the share price risk is reduced by the selling pressure already witnessed to date, which in the broker's view has factored in the weakness.

Hence, the stock is seen as providing an attractive value proposition and an Add rating is maintained. Target is raised to $3.27 from $3.23.

Target price is $3.27 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.71
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.34 cents and EPS of 8.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.46 cents and EPS of 28.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 175.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR  SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL

Copper

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Overnight Price: $5.24

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

The broker notes Sandfire Resources' share price has fallen -16% in the past month when the copper price has fallen -2%. This has taken valuation to the equivalent of the company's net cash position plus cash flow from DeGrussa.

Macquarie suggests the above implies no value for long term growth projects T3 in Botswana and Black Butte in Montana. The broker thus reiterates an Outperform rating. Target unchanged at $6.80.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $1.56
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.41, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 56.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.4, implying annual growth of -4.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 73.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.8, implying annual growth of 48.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL  SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $31.69

Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley suggests Australian business is stable and funding risks are well known, ahead of the first half results on February 19.

Funding risk aside, the broker believes the market should be prepared to pay a premium for structural volume growth, strong cash generation, moderating collection costs and balance sheet flexibility.

Target is raised to $34.58 from $32.38. Overweight rating. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $34.58 Current Price is $31.69 Difference: $2.89
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.29, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 91.20 cents and EPS of 127.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.9, implying annual growth of 0.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 98.70 cents and EPS of 137.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 130.9, implying annual growth of 6.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 94.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN  SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $12.43

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

First half results were worse than expected. Citi downgrades estimates for earnings per share in FY20 and FY21 by -6%.

While industry conditions remain supportive and the stock is reasonably valued, the broker still believes the near-term outlook is challenging.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $13.40 from $14.30.

Target price is $13.40 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: $0.97
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.58, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 74.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.0, implying annual growth of 468.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 82.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.8, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates SUN as Underperform (5) -

First half results missed Credit Suisse forecasts. Volume growth in home and motor was positive, demonstrating that growth can happen.

However, as the broker feared, the growth lever is net negative to profit, as the margin compression more than offsets the extra revenue.

Underlying margins declined by -300 basis points and compression is likely to continue in the second half, in the broker's view.

Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $12.00 from $12.50.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.58, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.0, implying annual growth of 468.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.8, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SUN as Underperform (5) -

Suncorp's result revealed several "green shoots", the broker notes, including volume growth in Home and Motor, cost control across General Insurance and a solid dividend. Yet despite it being a transitory year, the broker is surprised by underlying margins some -100 basis points below forecast.

The broker has downgraded forecasts due to low margins and, given recent disasters, the potential for a complete reinsurance overhaul mid-year leading to a higher cost or less cover. Target falls to $11.45 from $12.85. Underperform retained.

Target price is $11.45 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.58, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 66.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.0, implying annual growth of 468.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 70.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.8, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes consensus estimates are underestimating the work required to re-build insurance margins to 12%. Meanwhile, growth at the bank is constrained.

In the first half margins disappointed the broker and cash net profit was lower than expected.

Underweight rating maintained. In-Line sector view. Price target is reduced to $11.80 from $12.00.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.58, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.0, implying annual growth of 468.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 87.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.8, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates SUN as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

First half earnings were -13% below consensus and Morgans lowers FY20 and FY21 estimates for earnings per share by -8-12%, mainly because of reduced group insurance margin forecasts.

The broker believes the strategy to reduce earnings volatility and improve the core performance is correct but headwinds continue and a timeframe for a meaningful uplift in the trajectory is difficult to assess.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add and the target reduced to $12.47 from $13.85.

Target price is $12.47 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: $0.04
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.58, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 69.30 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.0, implying annual growth of 468.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 66.30 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.8, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

First half results revealed weak general insurance margins. However, Ord Minnett notes the banking business experienced strong net interest margin, albeit weaker volumes.

Capital management has been put on hold until the full year results, so Ord Minnett assesses FY20 as a reinvestment year for the company.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $13.41 from $13.96.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $13.41 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: $0.98
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.58, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.0, implying annual growth of 468.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.8, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

First half results were already depressed by elevated losses from catastrophic events and lower reserve releases, UBS notes. Other weak factors meant net profit missed estimates by -11%.

Margins continue to underwhelm and the target of 12% over the medium term appears further out of reach, in the broker's view.

Buy rating retained on a relatively undemanding PE ratio of 14.4x. Target is reduced to $13.50 from $14.00.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: $1.07
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.58, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.0, implying annual growth of 468.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.8, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL  TRANSURBAN GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $16.05

Citi rates TCL as Sell (5) -

First half operating earnings (EBITDA) were -3.5% below Citi's estimates. This implies a 51% skew to the second half in order to achieve FY20 consensus forecasts.

Capital releases now comprise 22% of free cash flow with an additional $125m flagged for the second half.

Citi believes the quantum of capital releases could now have future consequences for distribution growth.

Sell rating maintained. The target is reduced to $12.03 from $12.09.

Target price is $12.03 Current Price is $16.05 Difference: minus $4.02 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 172.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 209.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 78.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 145.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 19.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 65.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates TCL as Underperform (5) -

First half results were slightly below expectations. Management cited softer economic conditions in Sydney and remains cautious about the recovery in traffic growth.

Distribution guidance for FY20 has been reaffirmed, supported by debt-funded capital releases in the first half.

Credit Suisse expects dividend growth of 5% in FY21 and FY22. In FY21 this would require further capital releases of $90m. Underperform rating and $13 target maintained.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $16.05 Difference: minus $3.05 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 14.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 109.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 209.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 78.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.50 cents and EPS of 17.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 92.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 19.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 65.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Transurban's earnings fell short of the broker and consensus, but mainly due to one-offs and maintenance provisions. The broker notes cash generation is improving but the company will still need to release capital to cover dividends. The pipeline of opportunities is nevertheless beginning to refill.

Neutral retained on valuation, although the broker suggests there is latent option value in a quality management team. Target rises to $15.64 from $14.82.

Target price is $15.64 Current Price is $16.05 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 51.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 209.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 78.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 59.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 19.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 65.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes the mix of yield and asset growth continues to underscore the investor appeal. First half earnings were higher than expected.

The broker suggests that the cumulative delay of several projects is manageable and there are a few growth opportunities.

Equal-weight and $15.70 target retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $16.05 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 84.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 209.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 78.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 61.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 19.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 65.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates TCL as Hold (3) -

First half results were solid, Morgans assesses, particularly given weaker economic conditions in Sydney.

The broker lifts the target to $14.81 from $14.67 as a result of minor downgrades to operating earnings (EBITDA) estimates and the capital releases, offset by the rolling forward of the valuation.

Hold rating maintained. The broker believes its valuation is resistant to mild project cost over-runs and delivery delays.

Target price is $14.81 Current Price is $16.05 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 209.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 78.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 19.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 65.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates TCL as Hold (3) -

First half net profit was lower than expected. Traffic growth was also below expectations.

The company has flagged a resolution of the West Gate tunnel dispute in coming months as absolutely critical.

No site is available to take contaminated soil under new environmental regulations and tunnel boring machines have been idle since October.

Given the project uncertainty, Ord Minnett lowers the target to $15.65 from $16.00. Hold rating maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $15.65 Current Price is $16.05 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 114.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 209.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 78.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 133.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 19.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 65.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Cash flow in the first half was stronger than UBS expected. Growth of 5% in distributions is expected until the West Gate tunnel and WestConnex are completed in 2023.

Critical milestones are the opening of NorthConnex and the M5 tunnel mid 2020. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $16.05 from $15.10.

Target price is $16.05 Current Price is $16.05 Difference: $0
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.70, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 13.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 120.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 209.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 78.7.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 20.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 79.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 19.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 65.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AVN AVENTUS GROUP $2.91 Macquarie 3.45 3.30 4.55%
Morgans 3.03 2.86 5.94%
UBS 2.76 2.70 2.22%
BPT BEACH ENERGY $2.21 Citi 2.44 2.65 -7.92%
Macquarie 2.30 2.50 -8.00%
Morgans 2.28 2.32 -1.72%
Ord Minnett 2.45 2.65 -7.55%
CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL $12.01 Ord Minnett 13.00 11.50 13.04%
CGF CHALLENGER $10.12 Citi 9.80 8.30 18.07%
Credit Suisse 9.40 7.20 30.56%
Macquarie 10.00 8.50 17.65%
Morgan Stanley 8.60 6.95 23.74%
Morgans 8.85 7.53 17.53%
UBS 9.56 6.95 37.55%
COH COCHLEAR $233.11 Credit Suisse 234.00 240.00 -2.50%
Morgans 222.00 207.00 7.25%
NST NORTHERN STAR $13.73 Macquarie 15.00 14.00 7.14%
Morgan Stanley 10.25 9.10 12.64%
UBS 14.00 13.75 1.82%
NWS NEWS CORP $21.58 UBS 24.00 23.75 1.05%
S32 SOUTH32 $2.56 Morgans 3.27 3.23 1.24%
SHL SONIC HEALTHCARE $31.69 Morgan Stanley 34.58 32.38 6.79%
SUN SUNCORP $12.43 Citi 13.40 14.30 -6.29%
Credit Suisse 12.00 12.50 -4.00%
Macquarie 11.45 12.85 -10.89%
Morgan Stanley 11.80 12.00 -1.67%
Morgans 12.47 13.85 -9.96%
Ord Minnett 13.41 13.96 -3.94%
UBS 13.50 14.00 -3.57%
TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP $16.05 Citi 12.03 12.09 -0.50%
Macquarie 15.64 14.82 5.53%
Morgan Stanley 15.70 15.28 2.75%
Morgans 14.81 14.01 5.71%
Ord Minnett 15.65 16.00 -2.19%
UBS 16.05 15.10 6.29%
Summaries
AVN AVENTUS GROUP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.91
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.91
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.91
BPT BEACH ENERGY Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $2.21
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.21
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.21
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.21
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.21
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.21
CBA COMMBANK Sell - UBS Overnight Price $88.18
CGF CHALLENGER Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $10.12
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $10.12
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $10.12
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $10.12
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $10.12
Downgrade to Sell from Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $10.12
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $10.12
COH COCHLEAR Sell - Citi Overnight Price $233.11
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $233.11
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $233.11
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $233.11
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $233.11
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $233.11
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $233.11
CPU COMPUTERSHARE Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $17.46
DOW DOWNER EDI Buy - Citi Overnight Price $7.29
ECX ECLIPX GROUP Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.80
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $1.80
IAG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA Buy - Citi Overnight Price $6.89
JHX JAMES HARDIE Buy - Citi Overnight Price $31.65
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $31.65
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $31.65
MP1 MEGAPORT Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $10.81
MQG MACQUARIE GROUP Sell - Citi Overnight Price $148.29
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $148.29
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $148.29
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $148.29
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $148.29
NST NORTHERN STAR Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $13.73
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $13.73
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $13.73
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $13.73
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $13.73
NWS NEWS CORP Buy - UBS Overnight Price $21.58
S32 SOUTH32 Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.56
SFR SANDFIRE Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.24
SHL SONIC HEALTHCARE Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $31.69
SUN SUNCORP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $12.43
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $12.43
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $12.43
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $12.43
Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $12.43
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $12.43
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $12.43
TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP Sell - Citi Overnight Price $16.05
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $16.05
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $16.05
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $16.05
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $16.05
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $16.05
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $16.05
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

14

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

29

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

15

Wednesday 12 February 2020

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