Australian Broker Call

October 12, 2016

Access Broker Call Report Archives here

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on symbol for fast access.

The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

Last Updated: 01:21 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BHP - BHP BILLITON Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
MTO - MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
NAB - NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
OZL - OZ MINERALS Upgrade to Neutral from Sell UBS
S32 - SOUTH32 Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
TAH - TABCORP HOLDINGS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
VOC - VOCUS COMMUNICATIONS Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL Downgrade to Sell from Neutral UBS
ANZ  AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP

Banks

Overnight Price: $28.20

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett expects FY16 cash earnings of $6.18bn and a final dividend of 80c. Margins are expected to decline by around 2 basis points as the bank continues to run off low-yielding exposures.

While provisioning remains high the broker does not expect another leg up in the current environment. The broker retains an Accumulate rating and $31.50 target.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $28.20 Difference: $3.3
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.34, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 214.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.8, implying annual growth of -23.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.2, implying annual growth of 15.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP BILLITON LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $23.80

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Reports suggest Peabody and Nippon Steel have settled Q4 coking coal contracts at US$200/t. The broker had forecast US$170/t for Q4, declining to US$140/t in Q1.

The broker has not made earnings forecast changes, but notes there is material upside at spot prices and notes consensus is currently below the broker. BHP could receive a cash flow boost. Outperform and $25 target retained.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $23.80 Difference: $1.2
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.35, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 58.26 cents and EPS of 104.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 50.33 cents and EPS of 99.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.1, implying annual growth of 2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates BHP as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS is downgrading to Neutral from Buy believing the risk/reward has become more balanced as iron ore and coal prices are expected to fall back over the next 3-6 months and oil prices stabilise.

The company has largely completed its restructuring in the broker's view and the priority now is to strengthen the balance sheet. FY17 EBITDA forecasts are upgraded by 13%. Target rises to $23.50 from $23.00.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $23.80 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.35, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 59.61 cents and EPS of 121.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 66.39 cents and EPS of 112.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.1, implying annual growth of 2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ERA  ENERGY RESOURCES OF AUSTRALIA

Energy

Overnight Price: $0.35

UBS rates ERA as Sell (5) -

Weak fundamentals remain a headwind for the stock but legacy contracts are envisaged supporting the stock. The broker lowers uranium price forecasts for the next 12 months.

September quarter uranium production improved to 666 tonnes, ahead of UBS estimates, as a result of higher throughput. This lifts estimates and reduces the broker's forecast loss for 2016 to -$40m.

UBS retains a Sell rating and reduces the target to 9c from 10c.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If ERA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.89.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.00.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $2.17

UBS rates EVN as Buy (1) -

UBS continues to envisage upside for gold prices as low inflation should keep yields down and US Fed policy loose. This should take the price towards a US$1,400/oz average in 2017, the broker believes.

The stock remains the broker's pick in the sector and a Buy rating is retained. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $2.89.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.63
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of 4.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO  INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL

Materials

Overnight Price: $3.90

UBS rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes nickel demand is lifting and 10% of supply is set to leave the trade. While prices are yet to reach a point where the industry is on a more sustainable footing the broker expects nickel to lift to US$5.50/lb in 2017 and US$6.25/lb in 2018.

The higher prices lift estimates for earnings in FY17 and FY18 by 18% and 16% respectively. Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $4.21 from $4.19.

Target price is $4.21 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.31
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.1.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 296.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX  JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.

Materials

Overnight Price: $20.21

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley remains cautious about the stock for the near term and believes earnings risks are skewed to the downside, despite the probability of near-term strength in volume growth.

The broker observes US macro data has slowed a little and retailer sales data could point to weaker renovations activity.

Equal-weight retained. Target is $20.33. In-Line sector view.

Target price is $20.33 Current Price is $20.21 Difference: $0.12
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.84, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 56.90 cents and EPS of 82.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 80.47 cents and EPS of 92.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.0, implying annual growth of 20.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTO  MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing

Overnight Price: $3.58

Morgans rates MTO as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Industry data suggests motorcycle sales are buoyant and Morgans upgrades FY17 growth assumptions to 7% from 4.5%. The industry remains ripe for consolidation and the broker believes it is just a matter of time before the company makes another acquisition.

The main downside risk is a deterioration in economic conditions and discretionary spending. Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. Target rises to $3.86 from $3.65.

Target price is $3.86 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $0.28
If MTO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.57.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.32.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

Overnight Price: $28.28

UPDATED

Citi rates NAB as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi analysts observe NAB shares have outperformed amidst a notable rotation in investor funds flows in the Australian banking sector. But now the going is expected to get tougher and thus the recommendation has been pulled back to Neutral from Buy.

According to the analysts, continuation of the stocks’ outperformance appears less clear cut now as management at the bank is tackling a number of substantial issues within the remaining operations. Target drops to $30.50 from $31.50. Earnings estimates have been rejigged, a little.

Note: on current projections by Citi NAB will cut its dividend next financial year to 158c from an estimated 178c this year.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $28.28 Difference: $2.22
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.50, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY16:

Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 178.00 cents and EPS of 229.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.5, implying annual growth of -4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 191.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 158.00 cents and EPS of 223.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.6, implying annual growth of -1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 179.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OFX  OZFOREX GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials

Overnight Price: $1.90

Deutsche Bank rates OFX as Buy (1) -

A major driver of revenue growth is volatility in foreign exchange. With the major trading pair of AUD/USD experiencing very low volatility in the past four months and the second largest, AUD/GBP, appreciating 25% since the first quarter, Deutsche Bank reduces forecasts.

FY17 revenues are lowered by 10% and EBITDA by 8%. A Buy rating is retained. Target is reduced to $2.20 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.3
If OFX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.00.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.83.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OGC  OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION

Materials

Overnight Price: $3.76

UBS rates OGC as Sell (5) -

The broker was surprised that the Didipio mine was one of 20 singled out for suspension by the Philippines mines department following the audit of all mines.

At this stage day-to-day operations are unaffected while management seeks clarification. Assuming the mine can operate without interruption, UBS still believes investors will price in country risk.

UBS retains a Sell rating. Target is reduced to $3.59 from $3.79.

Target price is $3.59 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If OGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 6.77 cents and EPS of 28.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.77 cents and EPS of 504.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.5, implying annual growth of 544.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OML  OOH!MEDIA LIMITED

Media

Overnight Price: $4.89

Credit Suisse rates OML as Outperform (1) -

The company will acquire Executive Channel Network for $68.5m. Credit Suisse does not consider this a bargain but it does provide increased exposure to a highly sought after demographic that has historically been difficult to reach.

The broker observes a number of strategic merits in the deal and while not factoring in many revenue synergies, notes the possibility of packaging "office" with other verticals.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $6.00 from $5.95.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $1.11
If OML meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.98, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 11.22 cents and EPS of 23.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -30.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 14.15 cents and EPS of 29.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates OML as No Rating (-1) -

oOh! has agreed to acquire Executive Channel International, funded by an underwritten share placement and debt from an existing facility. The deal would combine the number one and two players in the Office segment, the broker notes.

The broker is advising om the deal and as such is currently restricted from making a recommendation.

Current Price is $4.89. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.98, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -30.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL  OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $5.97

UBS rates OZL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS is starting to shift its view, having been negative for some time on copper. The broker observes the demand side is stronger, particularly in China while supply side growth should slow.

2017 earnings estimates lift 19% on higher copper prices.

Despite the risks, with few ways to play copper in Australia, the broker upgrades OZ Minerals to Neutral from Sell. Target rises to $6.34 from $6.26.

Target price is $6.34 Current Price is $5.97 Difference: $0.37
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.96, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of -20.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of -4.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRU  PERSEUS MINING LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $0.48

UBS rates PRU as Neutral (3) -

UBS continues to envisage upside for gold prices as low inflation should keep yields down and US Fed policy loose. This should take the price towards a US$1,400/oz average in 2017, the broker believes.

Earnings estimates are lifted for FY18 to account for Sissingue in group earnings. Neutral retained with the target slipping to 50c from 55c.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.02
If PRU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.72, suggesting upside of 52.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 475.0.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.2, implying annual growth of 5100.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM  PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Diversified Financials

Overnight Price: $5.07

Morgan Stanley rates PTM as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley estimates net outflows of $330m in September, increasing the downside risks to its FY17 forecasts. The prospect of a buy-back is likely to support the share price.

Morgan Stanley envisages risks to flows from limited mix of distribution channels, a more mature retail business and rising competition. Underweight rating retained. Target is $4.50. In-Line sector view retained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.07 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 30.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -12.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation

Overnight Price: $2.26

Ord Minnett rates QUB as Initiate coverage with Buy rating (1) -

Ord Minnett suggests a solution to the inefficient and complex import/export logistics in NSW will not be easy, but should be rewarding. Qube Holdings intends to drive greater acceptance of rail through investment in Sydney's largest integrated intermodal terminal.

The broker expects this will create a commercial alignment of stevedore and logistics operations which should in turn drive efficiency gains, lower freight costs for customers and ultimately lead to a greater acceptance of rail versus road.

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on the stock with a Buy rating and $2.85 target.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.59
If QUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.63, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 19.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 9.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $53.20

UBS rates RIO as Buy (1) -

UBS expects the company to generate strong free cash flow from the Pilbara even at cycle lows because of the restructuring potential within the group and believes this feature is unappreciated by the market.

2017 EBITDA estimates are upgraded by 6%. The broker's Buy rating is unchanged. The target is lifted to $61 from $59.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $53.20 Difference: $7.8
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.41, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 149.03 cents and EPS of 308.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 273.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 148.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 205.93 cents and EPS of 338.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 288.1, implying annual growth of 5.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $2.53

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Reports suggest Peabody and Nippon Steel have settled Q4 coking coal contracts at US$200/t. The broker had forecast US$170/t for Q4, declining to US$140/t in Q1.

The broker has not made earnings forecast changes, but notes there is material upside at spot prices and notes consensus is currently below the broker. South32 cash flow could double at spot prices. Outperform and $2.70 target retained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.17
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.66 cents and EPS of 17.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.96 cents and EPS of 15.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of -13.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates S32 as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS downgrades South32 to Neutral from Buy and lifts the target to $2.50 from $2.25. The broker considers the risk/reward is more balanced as coal and manganese prices are expected to fall back over the next three months. The rand is also becoming a headwind.

The company has said it is contemplating two transactions and additional returns are expected in FY17 as cash continues to build. UBS upgrades FY17 EBITDA by 23%.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.48 cents and EPS of 24.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.77 cents and EPS of 17.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of -13.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR  SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL

Materials

Overnight Price: $5.04

UBS rates SFR as Buy (1) -

UBS is starting to shift its view, having been negative for some time on copper. The broker observes the demand side is stronger, particularly in China while supply side growth should slow.

FY17 earnings estimates are lifted by 30% following an 8% lift to FY17 copper price forecasts. The Buy is supported by organic growth and low-cost domestic production. Target rises to $6.63 from $6.24.

Target price is $6.63 Current Price is $5.04 Difference: $1.59
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.68, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of 6.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of 64.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $3.94

Credit Suisse rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse observes there is great uncertainty regarding equity gas at Fairview and Roma as well as the variability in some of the third party contracts.

While there is clear potential upside for Santos from changes in the Horizon contract, the broker believes these are likely to be more than offset at GLNG.

Credit Suisse reviews its valuation and reduces the target to $3.90 from $4.90. Neutral retained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.97, suggesting upside of 29.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 64.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 191.8.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 1000.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH  TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Services

Overnight Price: $5.07

Credit Suisse rates TAH as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The NSW government has reversed its decision to ban greyhound racing from FY18. NSW greyhounds represent 5% of Tabcorp's wagering turnover.

Credit Suisse does caution investors that early indications of wagering growth could be erased later by intense competition.

The broker reverses its prior downgrade to FY18 estimates and upgrades its rating to Outperform from Neutral rating, despite a lack of constructive views on the UK venture, Sun Bets. Target is raised to $5.60 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.07 Difference: $0.53
If TAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 22.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 16.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 24.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 11.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates TAH as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank views the decision by the NSW government to overturn the greyhound racing ban a minor positive for Tabcorp. NSW greyhound racing represents 5% of total wagering turnover.

The broker raises the target to $4.80 from $4.70 and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.07 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 16.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 11.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TTS  TATTS GROUP LIMITED

Consumer Services

Overnight Price: $3.55

Deutsche Bank rates TTS as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank considers the NSW government's backing down from the greyhound racing ban a minor positive for Tatts, although it represents only 2-3% of total wagering revenue.

Earnings forecasts are increased by 1% with a Hold rating and $3.90 target retained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.35
If TTS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 18.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VOC  VOCUS COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED

Telecommunication Services

Overnight Price: $5.63

UPDATED

Citi rates VOC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

The Vocus share price has been under the pump in recent weeks and that almost reads like a severe understatement. Citi analysts have now jumped to the rescue, essentially declaring the market is being silly.

Even with slower growth ahead, which has become Citi's base case scenario, Vocus shares look significantly undervalued in the analysts' opinion. They have upgraded to Buy from Neutral while the target (on lowered estimates) drops to $7.40 from $8.00.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.63 Difference: $1.77
If VOC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.92, suggesting upside of 63.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 34.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.7, implying annual growth of 105.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 39.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES  WESFARMERS LIMITED

Food & Staples Retailing

Overnight Price: $45.35

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts have conducted an in-depth comparison between supermarket operators in Australia and Tesco in the UK. The analysts believe there are sufficient differences in both markets to support higher operating margins in Australia.

The analysts have also used the study to reiterate their view that Coles is facing lower EBIT margins, albeit not in a fall-off-the-cliff manner. Regardless, this is sufficient for the analysts to retain a Sell rating for Wesfarmers. Target $38.80.

Target price is $38.80 Current Price is $45.35 Difference: minus $6.55 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $42.59, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 200.00 cents and EPS of 249.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 245.0, implying annual growth of 576.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 203.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 207.00 cents and EPS of 246.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 261.2, implying annual growth of 6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 216.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC  WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $2.86

Macquarie rates WHC as Underperform (5) -

Reports suggest Peabody and Nippon Steel have settled Q4 coking coal contracts at US$200/t. The broker had forecast US$170/t for Q4, declining to US$140/t in Q1.

The broker has not made earnings forecast changes, but notes there is material upside at spot prices. Whitehaven could be debt free in a year at current spot prices. Underperform and $1.50 target retained given the broker's longer term bearish view on thermal coal.

But using spot prices, the broker's earnings forecasts would jump by 121% and valuation by 320%.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: minus $1.36 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting downside of -18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 952.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of -20.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates WHC as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS expects the company to focus on cost controls in FY17. Thermal coal price estimates are lifted for FY17 by 6% to US$68/t and semi soft coking coal by 32% to US$102/t. As a result FY17 earnings are expected to almost double.

The broker downgrades to Sell from Neutral to reflect the premium at which the stock trades versus net present value. Target is raised to $2.60 from $2.15.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting downside of -18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 952.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of -20.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSA  WESTERN AREAS NL

Materials

Overnight Price: $2.64

UBS rates WSA as Sell (5) -

UBS observes nickel demand is lifting and 10% of supply is set to leave the trade. While prices are yet to reach a point where the industry is on a more sustainable footing, the broker expects nickel to lift to US$5.50/lb in 2017 and US$6.25/lb in 2018.

Despite the expectations for the nickel price, the broker believes the stock is overvalued and retains a Sell rating. Target raised to $1.88 from $1.86.

Target price is $1.88 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 426.7.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of 1516.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
ANZ - ANZ BANKING GROUP Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $28.20
BHP - BHP BILLITON Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $23.80
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $23.80
ERA - ENERGY RES OF AUSTRALIA Sell - UBS Overnight Price $0.35
EVN - EVOLUTION MINING Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.17
IGO - INDEPENDENCE GROUP Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.90
JHX - JAMES HARDIE Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $20.21
MTO - MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.58
NAB - NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $28.28
OFX - OZFOREX GROUP Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $1.90
OGC - OCEANAGOLD Sell - UBS Overnight Price $3.76
OML - OOH!MEDIA Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.89
No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.89
OZL - OZ MINERALS Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS Overnight Price $5.97
PRU - PERSEUS MINING Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $0.48
PTM - PLATINUM Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.07
QUB - QUBE HOLDINGS Initiate coverage with Buy rating - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.26
RIO - RIO TINTO Buy - UBS Overnight Price $53.20
S32 - SOUTH32 Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.53
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.53
SFR - SANDFIRE Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.04
STO - SANTOS Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.94
TAH - TABCORP HOLDINGS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.07
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $5.07
TTS - TATTS GROUP Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.55
VOC - VOCUS COMMUNICATIONS Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $5.63
WES - WESFARMERS Sell - Citi Overnight Price $45.35
WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.86
Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.86
WSA - WESTERN AREAS Sell - UBS Overnight Price $2.64
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

11

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

10

5. Sell

7

Wednesday 12 October 2016

Access Broker Call Report Archives here

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.