Australian Broker Call
October 17, 2016
Access Broker Call Report Archives here
COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 12:17 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| OGC - | OCEANAGOLD | Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform | Credit Suisse |
| RRL - | REGIS RESOURCES | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -
An update from Aristocrat sees the broker lifting its North American ship-share growth forecasts for the video and stepper markets to 25% growth to FY21 from a previous 22%, up from 20% currently.
On such growth potential alongside current earnings momentum and on an FY18 forecast PE of 20x, the broker retains Outperform. Target rises to $17.30 from $15.80.
Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $16.12 Difference: $1.18
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.88, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 20.30 cents and EPS of 58.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.4, implying annual growth of 87.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.90 cents and EPS of 71.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.3, implying annual growth of 24.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates ANZ as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts are of the view local banks continue to battle weak top line growth and the upcoming results releases will reveal just that. With payout ratios already at around 80%, Citi analysts believe the pressure is mounting on boards to cut dividends for shareholders.
ANZ Bank, of course, already cut its dividend payout and as such is Citi's most preferred sector exposure. ANZ is expected to report cash NPAT of $6,184m, basic EPS 212.8c, and a DPS of 80c. Buy.Target $32.75.
Target price is $32.75 Current Price is $27.53 Difference: $5.22
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.34, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 203.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.0, implying annual growth of -24.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 235.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.0, implying annual growth of 16.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AQG as Outperform (1) -
September quarter production is expected to be stronger with lower costs. Credit Suisse updates FX and gold price forecasts. Gold prices of US$1,200 oz are expected to hold in 2016 and US$1,400 oz is expected in 2017.
Credit Suisse retains Outperform rating and $5.45 target.
Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $2.47
If AQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.60, suggesting upside of 56.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.75 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of -98.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1470.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AWC as Neutral (3) -
Alcoa's alumina business reported US$72m in September quarter adjusted income and Credit Suisse was surprised by the large distribution to Alumina Ltd, which suggests that most of the cash balance is being distributed ahead of Alcoa's November 1 split.
The broker notes the Australian alumina price has now converged with the Chinese price, restoring price parity. Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and $1.30 target.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: minus $0.225 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 7.90 cents and EPS of 2.34 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.9. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.49 cents and EPS of 6.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.1, implying annual growth of 21.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BHP as Outperform (1) -
Following on from bulk commodities Credit Suisse revises base metal and oil price forecasts. Copper forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are revised up 1% and 6% respectively to US$2.12/lb and US$2.00/lb. Brent oil forecast is reduced to US$65/bbl for 2018.
BHP remains the preferred large cap miner. The broker retains Outperform rating and raises its target to $24.00 from $21.50.
Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.54 Difference: $1.46
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.54, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 86.11 cents and EPS of 119.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 81.80 cents and EPS of 103.24 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.3, implying annual growth of -0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CCL as Lighten (4) -
The company will hold an investor briefing on October 21. Ord Minnett expects the news will be positive, because of cost savings via bottling plant rationalisation and digital sales initiatives.
The broker maintains a Lighten rating because of channel and product challenges and valuation. Target is raised to $9.25 from $8.50.
Target price is $9.25 Current Price is $9.91 Difference: minus $0.66 (current price is over target).
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.60, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.0, implying annual growth of 4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates DUE as Buy (1) -
Post share market sell downs of bond proxies, Citi analysts are now of the belief certain regulated utilities stocks offer "compelling" yield value for investors.
Spark Infrastructure ((SKI)) is highest preferred in the sector, but DUET comes second. Target drops to $2.62 from $2.88. Buy.
Target price is $2.62 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.22
If DUE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of 197.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates EVN as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse implements revised gold and FX price forecasts and expects, from an operating perspective, the September quarter should be benign. Gold prices of US$1,200 oz are expected to hold in 2016 and US$1,400 oz is expected in 2017.
The deflationary cost environment appears to have run its course and the broker suspects cost reductions outside of portfolio re-balancing are likely to be incremental and delivered via operational improvements.
An Outperform rating is retained and the target is lowered to $2.40 from $2.45.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.23
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.98 cents and EPS of 20.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.34 cents and EPS of 22.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of 7.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates FAN as Neutral (3) -
Fantastic has received a full takeover bid from Steinhoff Asia Pacific at $3.50, representing a 43% premium to last traded price, the broker notes. The board has recommended shareholders accept.
The broker agrees, despite Fantastic's performance having improved of late. The chance of a counter-bid is low in the broker's view. Target rises to $3.50 from $3.30, Neutral retained.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.07
If FAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of 96.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 24.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of 10.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -
Independence's reserve and resource update showed a modest cut for Tropicana, as was expected, and an upgrade for Bentley, which was not. Drilling at Nova continues to show positive results, the broker notes.
The upgrade for Bentley sees the broker lift its zinc production forecast by 50% over the life of the project, driving earnings upgrades. Target rises to $5.00 from $4.80. Outperform retained.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $1.16
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.85, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 30.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of 297.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -
Citi analysts are of the view local banks continue to battle weak top line growth and the upcoming results releases will reveal just that. With payout ratios already at around 80%, Citi analysts believe the pressure is mounting on boards to cut dividends for shareholders.
Macquarie is expected to report cash NPAT of $956m, basic EPS of 283.2c, and a DPS cut to $1.45. Sell. Target $59. Citi's projections for underlying performance are lower than most expectations elsewhere.
Target price is $59.00 Current Price is $81.95 Difference: minus $22.95 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $76.69, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 360.00 cents and EPS of 555.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 603.7, implying annual growth of -7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 397.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 360.00 cents and EPS of 549.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 622.4, implying annual growth of 3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 414.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates MQG as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett expects first half cash earnings of $969m and an interim dividend of $1.70 a share. The broker observes the stock has outperformed global peers since the AGM as they become bogged down in geopolitical issues.
While this, in part, reflects the group's diversified operations the broker also believes valuation is becoming stretched. Transactions such as the Green Investment Bank will become key to earnings growth.
The broker retains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $78 from $73.
Target price is $78.00 Current Price is $81.95 Difference: minus $3.95 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $76.69, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 390.00 cents and EPS of 603.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 603.7, implying annual growth of -7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 397.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 607.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 622.4, implying annual growth of 3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 414.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts are of the view local banks continue to battle weak top line growth and the upcoming results releases will reveal just that. With payout ratios already at around 80%, Citi analysts believe the pressure is mounting on boards to cut dividends for shareholders.
National Australia Bank is expected to report cash NPAT of $6,318m, basic EPS of 238.9c, plus a DPS cut to 79c. Neutral. Target $30.50. If Citi's projections prove correct, shareholders should expect no more than 158c in dividends in FY17.
Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $27.76 Difference: $2.74
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.19, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 178.00 cents and EPS of 229.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 240.7, implying annual growth of -4.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 191.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 158.00 cents and EPS of 223.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.2, implying annual growth of -1.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 179.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NCM as Underperform (5) -
The September quarter is expected to be soft, reflecting the scheduled maintenance at Lihir. Steady and consistent performance is expected from Bonikro and Hidden Valley is now removed from the portfolio.
Credit Suisse implements revised gold and FX price forecasts. Gold prices of US$1,200 oz are expected to hold with US$1,400 oz expected in 2017.
Credit Suisse retains an Underperform rating and reduces the target to $18.20 from $19.20 on the back of revised gold price and FX forecasts.
Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $21.01 Difference: minus $2.81 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $20.45, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.54 cents and EPS of 116.66 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.7, implying annual growth of 60.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 54.17 cents and EPS of 171.86 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.5, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NST as Underperform (5) -
Credit Suisse expects steady production and costs to be announced at the upcoming production report. Credit Suisse implements revised gold and FX price forecasts. Gold prices of US$1,200 oz are expected to hold in 2016 and US$1,400 oz is expected in 2017.
On implementing revised gold and FX forecasts, the broker reduces the target to $3.75 from $4.30. Underperform rating retained.
Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.91 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.42 cents and EPS of 44.74 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.4, implying annual growth of 64.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.96 cents and EPS of 59.88 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.9, implying annual growth of 25.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates OGC as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -
Credit Suisse implements revised gold and FX forecasts. Gold prices of US$1,200 oz are expected to hold in 2016 and US$1,400 oz is expected in 2017. The September quarter is expected to be a sequentially weaker quarter, consistent with guidance for a softer second half.
The broker observes the company's conservative guidance rarely disappoints. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Underperform as a valuation call, reflecting assumptions that Didipio is cleared to continue operating. Target is lowered to $4.10 from $4.40.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.34
If OGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 5.42 cents and EPS of 33.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 2.71 cents and EPS of 53.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.9, implying annual growth of 546.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates OZL as Neutral (3) -
Copper forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are revised up 1% and 6% respectively to US$2.12/lb and US$2.00/lb. Credit Suisse also implements revised FX and gold price forecasts, expecting gold to average US$1,200 oz in 2016 and US$1,400 oz in 2017.
The broker's Neutral rating is maintained. Target raised to $5.80 from $5.70.
Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.94 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.97, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 32.05 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.7, implying annual growth of -21.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 27.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of -1.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates PPS as Add (1) -
The company reported strong net fund inflows in Australia and the UK. Morgans observes the source of the inflows was highly diversified, reflecting the benefit of recent investment in training client advisors on the use of the SMA platform.
The broker believes the stock offers exposure to growing demand from financial planners and investment advisors. Add rating retained. Target is 61c.
Target price is $0.61 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.095
If PPS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates PPT as Neutral (3) -
Perpetual's market update shows organic growth remains a tough ask with retail funds flows remaining tepid. At the same time, any progress with international equities remains slow too.
Regardless, Citi analysts think published numbers for Q1 support their slightly above consensus forecasts. On this basis they have lifted the price target to $47.15. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $47.15 Current Price is $46.77 Difference: $0.38
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $46.03, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 260.00 cents and EPS of 285.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 279.0, implying annual growth of -4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 254.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 275.00 cents and EPS of 307.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 256.4, implying annual growth of -8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 272.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates PPT as Neutral (3) -
September quarter funds under management were above expectations although the broker notes medium-term performance in some large strategies remains behind benchmark.
Neutral and $49 target retained. While the stock has value appeal, flows remain minimal, Credit Suisse observes, and growth initiatives appear to be longer term.
Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $46.77 Difference: $2.23
If PPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $46.03, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 265.00 cents and EPS of 281.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 279.0, implying annual growth of -4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 254.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 270.00 cents and EPS of 301.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 256.4, implying annual growth of -8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 272.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates PPT as Neutral (3) -
The value of Perpetual's funds under management increased along with the equity market in the Sep Q but funds flow was net negative. The broker thus retains Neutral, suggesting this needs to turn around. Target falls to $44.80 from $45.70.
Target price is $44.80 Current Price is $46.77 Difference: minus $1.97 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $46.03, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 250.00 cents and EPS of 260.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 279.0, implying annual growth of -4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 254.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 263.00 cents and EPS of 267.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 256.4, implying annual growth of -8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 272.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Equal-weight (3) -
Net outflows in the September quarter were lower margin smart beta products, Morgan Stanley observes, and Australian equity flows were resilient.
The broker downgrades FY17-19 earnings estimates by around 5%, marking to market for the September quarter flows. An Equal-weight rating and In-Line sector view are retained. Target falls to $48.50 from $51.00.
Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $46.77 Difference: $1.73
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $46.03, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 256.00 cents and EPS of 276.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 279.0, implying annual growth of -4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 254.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 300.00 cents and EPS of 310.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 256.4, implying annual growth of -8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 272.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates PRU as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse upgrades FX and gold price forecasts. Gold prices of US$1,200 oz are expected to hold in 2016 and US$1,400 oz is expected in 2017.
The first half is considered to be very much a transitional period for the company. Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and lowers the target to 87c from 90c.
Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.375
If PRU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.72, suggesting upside of 50.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.17 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates QAN as Outperform (1) -
Cathay Pacific has issued a profit warning citing lower yields from overcapacity and intense competition. While Cathay flies into Australia, the broker does not believe Cathay's issues reflect such problems on that particular route.
Rather they reflect overcapacity on routes into Hong Kong and competition in flying direct to the US, bypassing the traditional hubs of Hong Kong and Singapore. No change to Outperform and a $4.40 target for Qantas.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $1.16
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 38.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 53.60 cents and EPS of 67.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.9, implying annual growth of 27.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.30 cents and EPS of 62.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.4, implying annual growth of -4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates RIO as Neutral (3) -
Following on from bulk commodities Credit Suisse revises base metal and oil price forecasts. Copper forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are revised up 1% and 6% respectively to US$2.12/lb and US$2.00/lb.
Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and $50 target. Given the long-life nature of the company's assets value support is expected with the business enjoying an eventual lift in prices back to assumed long-run levels.
Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $51.05 Difference: minus $1.05 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $55.29, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 148.97 cents and EPS of 342.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 276.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 185.54 cents and EPS of 315.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 287.9, implying annual growth of 4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates RRL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
Citi has upgraded its rating to Neutral from Sell following recent pull back in share prices for gold producers. Price target has declined, a little, to $3.22 from $3.31.
The analysts are of the belief the company is on track to meet FY17 guidance. Regis Resources should have "healthy" FY17 yields on FCF and dividends, they argue, predicting 8% and 5.5% respectively.
Citi thinks the next challenge for company management will be integrating satellites deposits into the ore stream.
Target price is $3.22 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 27.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 23.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates RRL as Underperform (5) -
September quarter gold production of 74,600 ozs is annualised at slightly below unchanged guidance but the broker notes higher grade new satellite pits are set to contribute.
Moolart Well experienced its highest production since December 2014 while McPhillamys is progressing towards a feasibility study.
Gold prices of US$1,200 oz are expected to hold in 2016 and US$1,400 oz is expected in 2017.
The broker retains an Underperform rating and $2.95 target.
Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.17 cents and EPS of 28.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 23.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.85 cents and EPS of 38.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates RRL as Sell (5) -
September quarter production was 5% below the June quarter and 5% below Deutsche Bank's estimates, driven by lower grades at Rosemont and Garden Well.
Costs were in line with expectations. The broker likes the business but considers it overvalued and a Sell rating is retained. Target price is raised to $2.90 from $2.80.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 23.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RRL as Neutral (3) -
Regis Resources' Sep Q production and costs were in line with the broker's forecast. Exploration is showing promise at Toohey's Well, the broker notes, while the McPhillamys project looks increasingly like going ahead.
Production was at the lower end of the guidance range but the broker likes the exploration potential. Until a McPhillamys go-ahead is confirmed, the broker retains Neutral. Target rises to $3.70 from $3.60.
Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $0.38
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 23.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 40.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RRL as Sell (5) -
September quarter production was down 5% but in line with UBS estimates. Production is expected to lift steadily into FY17 as the satellite pits at Gloster and Erlistoun come on line.
UBS remains favourably inclined towards gold, looking for prices to lift to US$1,400 oz in 2017. While the stock's premium valuation is easy to justify, the broker believes there is better value elsewhere in the sector. Target is reduced to $3.10 from $3.20.
Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 23.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates S32 as Neutral (3) -
The Chinese alumina price has been volatile but imports remain weak, Credit Suisse observes, and the Australian alumina price has now converged with the Chinese price.
The broker expects alumina to trade in sympathy with aluminium. Aluminium price forecasts are reduced to US73c/lb on a falling Chinese cost curve. In contrast zinc and silver prices are raised 12% and 15% respectively.
The net impact for South32 is a 24% lift in forecast underlying EBITDA for FY17. Neutral retained. Target is lifted to $2.50 from $2.10.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.02
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.46 cents and EPS of 16.14 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.81 cents and EPS of 12.03 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of -17.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SBM as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse implements revised gold and FX price forecasts. Gold prices of US$1,200 oz are expected to hold in 2016 and US$1,400 oz is expected in 2017.
The main catalysts are the Gwalia Deeps vent upgrade, with a December decision looming and the outcome of the Simberi strategic review.
The broker's Neutral rating is retained. Target is reduced to $2.90 from $2.95.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.33
If SBM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of -4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.75 cents and EPS of 41.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.1, implying annual growth of 31.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SFR as Underperform (5) -
Copper forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are revised up 1% and 6% respectively to US$2.12/lb and US$2.00/lb. Credit Suisse upgrades the target to $3.95 from $3.80 on implementing the revised forecasts.
Commodity price aside, the broker expects free cash generation should be aided by progressively reducing mine development costs. Underperform rating is unchanged.
Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $5.06 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.70, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.18 cents and EPS of 13.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.95 cents and EPS of 19.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of 70.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates SKI as Buy (1) -
Spark Infra has been Citi's preferred exposure in the utilities space. Following a general sell off in share market bond proxies, the analysts have reiterated their preference for Spark Infra among domestic regulated utilities.
It is Citi's view that dividend yields are now offering "compelling value" for investors. Target falls to $2.64 from $2.81. Buy.
Target price is $2.64 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.39
If SKI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of 58.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SLM as No Rating (-1) -
Salmat is looking to raise $15m through a rights issue to fund the acquisition of the 50% of Microsourcing it doesn't own. The broker is advising and hence is currently restricted from making a recommendation.
Current Price is $0.48. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.50 cents and EPS of 4.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.70 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. |
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates WBC as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts are of the view local banks continue to battle weak top line growth and the upcoming results releases will reveal just that. With payout ratios already at around 80%, Citi analysts believe the pressure is mounting on boards to cut dividends for shareholders.
Westpac is expected to report cash NPAT of $7,865m, basic EPS 236.7c, and a cut in DPS to 79c. Neutral. Target $32. If Citi's projections prove correct, shareholders should expect no more than 158c in FY17.
Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $30.24 Difference: $1.76
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.34, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY16:
Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 173.00 cents and EPS of 230.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 232.1, implying annual growth of -9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 158.00 cents and EPS of 237.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.4, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 185.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| ALL - | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $16.12 |
| ANZ - | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $27.53 |
| AQG - | ALACER GOLD | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.98 |
| AWC - | ALUMINA | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.53 |
| BHP - | BHP BILLITON | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $22.54 |
| CCL - | COCA-COLA AMATIL | Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $9.91 |
| DUE - | DUET | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.40 |
| EVN - | EVOLUTION MINING | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.17 |
| FAN - | FANTASTIC HOLDINGS | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.43 |
| IGO - | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.84 |
| MQG - | MACQUARIE GROUP | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $81.95 |
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $81.95 | ||
| NAB - | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $27.76 |
| NCM - | NEWCREST MINING | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $21.01 |
| NST - | NORTHERN STAR | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.91 |
| OGC - | OCEANAGOLD | Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.76 |
| OZL - | OZ MINERALS | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.94 |
| PPS - | PRAEMIUM | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.52 |
| PPT - | PERPETUAL | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $46.77 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $46.77 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $46.77 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $46.77 | ||
| PRU - | PERSEUS MINING | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.50 |
| QAN - | QANTAS AIRWAYS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.24 |
| RIO - | RIO TINTO | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $51.05 |
| RRL - | REGIS RESOURCES | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $3.32 |
| Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.32 | ||
| Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.32 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.32 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $3.32 | ||
| S32 - | SOUTH32 | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.48 |
| SBM - | ST BARBARA | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.57 |
| SFR - | SANDFIRE | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.06 |
| SKI - | SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.25 |
| SLM - | SALMAT | No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.48 |
| WBC - | WESTPAC BANKING | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $30.24 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 12 |
| 3. Hold | 15 |
| 4. Reduce | 1 |
| 5. Sell | 7 |
Monday 17 October 2016
Access Broker Call Report Archives here
Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
Latest News
| 1 |
ASX Winners And Losers Of Today – 26-04-24Apr 26 2024 - Daily Market Reports |
| 2 |
In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 26-04-24Apr 26 2024 - Weekly Reports |
| 3 |
Weekly Top Ten News Stories – 26 April 2024Apr 26 2024 - Weekly Reports |
| 4 |
The Short Report – 26 Apr 2024Apr 26 2024 - Weekly Reports |
| 5 |
Next Week At A Glance – 29 Apr-May 2 2024Apr 26 2024 - Weekly Reports |