Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates 29M as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Underperform retained for 29Metals, target rises to $1.55 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ABC as Neutral (3) -

Adbri reported a "disappointing" trading update of profit after tax for the 2022 full year of $75-$85m, which Citi assesses as a -27% decline in the 2H22, excluding Rosehill and including recent acquisitions.

The broker attributed the weaker expected earnings to higher electricity costs, up $4m, an weather impacts of -$10m. Higher pricing (some 10% in 2H22) failed to offset rising fuel costs.

Citi expects margins to recover over the next 24 months, albeit at a level -13% below; while weaker conditions in the apartment market and infrastructure are anticipated.

Accordingly, the broker cuts earnings by -18% and -9% for FY22 and FY23, respectively. A Neutral rating is retained and the price target is lowered to $1.55 from $2.37.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.11
If ABC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.67, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ABC as Neutral (3) -

Adbri has downgrade FY guidance to -25% below Credit Suisse' forecast, and -27% below prior second half growth guidance, blaming the weather and prices not keeping up with costs. The broker expects only modest growth in FY23, assuming the absence of such factors.

With the balance sheet under pressure, Credit Suisse expects a dividend cut and the acceleration of property sales.

The broker does not see prices being able to keep up with costs, and retains Neutral, cutting its target to $1.50 from $2.30.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.06
If ABC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.67, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ABC as Equal-weight (3) -

As headwinds persist, and with inflation continuing to impact on price traction realisation, Adbri has delivered a second downgrade, with new net profit guidance of $75-85m a -27% miss to Morgan Stanley's forecast. 

While the broker does acknowledge recent earnings trajectory is disappointing, it highlights drivers are transitory. 

The Equal-weight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.70 from $2.40. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.26
If ABC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.67, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ABC as Hold (3) -

Another market update, another profit warning from Adbri, though this time the CEO fell on his sword. Rainfall and costs are to blame, and Ord Minnett points out the company expects both to persist into 2023.

While the shares now look "inexpensive", the broker adds earnings visibility and confidence are "very low". Earnings estimates have been reduced.

Ord Minnett displays no enthusiasm and sticks with its Hold rating. The target price falls to $1.55 from $2.50. 

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.11
If ABC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.67, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ABC as Neutral (3) -

Adbri reported a disappointing trading update and a reduction in FY22 earnings guidance to $75-$85m (ex-property) notes UBS.

The company failed to offset higher costs, predominantly from energy and diesel as well as wet weather, with the 2H22 revealing a fall in earnings from the core business over the 1H22.

Looking ahead, UBS assesses pricing as the key driver to improving earnings with no let up in cost pressures in the short term, while the balance sheet and interest cover remain sufficient, with room to divest surplus land if required.

Broker earnings forecasts are lowered by -16% for both FY22 and FY23 due to the higher costs and lower margins.

Neutral rating retained. Target price eases to $1.58 from $2.00.

Target price is $1.58 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.14
If ABC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.67, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALK as Buy (1) -

Alkane Resources' Q1 proved yet another positive surprise, comments Ord Minnett. The quarter produced a third of FY23 guidance at a low cost of $1200/oz, the broker highlights.

While management has nevertheless left FY guidance intact, Ord Minnett anticipates increased capital spending. Thus earnings estimates have been slightly reduced.

Buy rating retained. Price target falls to $1.10 from $1.20, also on incorporating fresh forecasts for gold and currencies.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.47
If ALK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

At the North American Gaming Expo, Credit Suisse learned that industry revenue strength continues to exceed pre-covid levels, but industry participants are cautious. Competition is intensifying as other players look to take market share from Aristocrat Leisure.

The broker assumes Aristocrat holds its market share and grows its installed base by 2% per annum. Outperform and $36 target retained.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $34.12 Difference: $1.88
If ALL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.71, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has used a deep dive into the Australian market for mortgages to increase the price target for ANZ Bank to $26.90 from $26. Rating remains Overweight.

All in all, Morgan Stanley expects the banks to enjoy margin increases that are "materially" higher than consensus forecasts in the September and December quarters, but at the same time multiples should remain subdued on the back of macro uncertainty.

On average, EPS forecasts have lifted by 3-4% across the board for FY23 and FY24. 

The broker's major bank order of preference is now ANZ Bank on top, followed by Westpac, National Australia Bank, then CommBank. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $26.90 Current Price is $25.41 Difference: $1.49
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.55, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Equal-weight (3) -

Based on the first ten days of trading in October, Morgan Stanley's tracking suggests ASX futures volumes will be down -25% year-on-year in October. With rate volumes flat year-on-year to September, the broker sees downside risk rising.

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $80.20 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $80.20 Current Price is $67.13 Difference: $13.07
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $79.79, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Outperform retained for Alumina Ltd, target falls to $1.80 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.58
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.59, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has used a deep dive into the Australian market for mortgages to upgrade Bendigo & Adelaide Bank to Overweight from Equal-weight.

All in all, Morgan Stanley expects the banks to enjoy margin increases that are "materially" higher than consensus forecasts in the September and December quarters, but at the same time multiples should remain subdued on the back of macro uncertainty.

On average, EPS forecasts have lifted by 3-4% across the board for FY23 and FY24. Target lifts to $9.50 from $9.40.

The broker's major bank order of preference is now ANZ Bank on top, followed by Westpac, National Australia Bank, then CommBank. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.58 Difference: $0.92
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.68, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has used a deep dive into the Australian market for mortgages to downgrade Bank of Queensland to Equal-weight from Overweight. Price target falls to $8.30 from $8.50.

All in all, Morgan Stanley expects the banks to enjoy margin increases that are "materially" higher than consensus forecasts in the September and December quarters, but at the same time multiples should remain subdued on the back of macro uncertainty.

On average, EPS forecasts have lifted by 3-4% across the board for FY23 and FY24.

The broker's major bank order of preference is now ANZ Bank on top, followed by Westpac, National Australia Bank, then CommBank. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.67 Difference: $0.63
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.79, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has used a deep dive into the Australian market for mortgages to increase the price target for CommBank to $85.50 from $83.50. Rating remains Underweight.

All in all, Morgan Stanley expects the banks to enjoy margin increases that are "materially" higher than consensus forecasts in the September and December quarters, but at the same time multiples should remain subdued on the back of macro uncertainty.

On average, EPS forecasts have lifted by 3-4% across the board for FY23 and FY24. 

The broker's major bank order of preference is now ANZ Bank on top, followed by Westpac, National Australia Bank, then CommBank. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $85.50 Current Price is $98.09 Difference: minus $12.59 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.40, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has lowered its 2022 earnings forecast for Costa Group to account for lower than expected citrus earnings in the second half. The broker's forecast decreases to $218m from $253m, but Macquarie warns of further downside risk if adverse weather continues. 

Citrus harvest volumes have been in line with budget but lower quality fruit picked has resulted in lower pricing, while challenging conditions drove higher labour and spraying costs. Earnings per share forecasts decline -40% and -12% for 2022 and 2023 respectively.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.71 from $3.24.

Target price is $2.71 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.71
If CGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGC as Add (1) -

Costa Group reported FY22 guidance of $218.2m, which is only slightly higher than 2021 earnings and disappointing according to Morgans.

The downgrade in earnings (profit warning) is due to the adverse weather conditions from wet weather and colder temperatures impacting on the quality of citrus products, even though volumes remained in line with budget.

Other products, international, berries, tomatoes and mushrooms were broadly as expected.

Morgans lowered earnings forecasts by -42.3% for FY22, due to the impact of an expected earnings decline at a time when the company has high financial leverage (interest costs). 

An Add rating is retained and the price target is lowered to $2.90 from $3.35. A recovery in the stock price is considered as contingent upon future earnings delivery.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.9
If CGC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGC as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Costa Group reported a weaker than expected trading update due to the impact of wet weather on the quality of citrus products, and FY22 EBITDA is expected to be only slightly above FY21 of $218m.

The company noted strong pricing assisted the Berry, Tomato and Mushroom products, as well as a recovery in the Avocado prices from 'historic lows'.

Despite the earnings downgrade, Costa Group's leverage remains manageable and the debt covenants are not threatened.

UBS remains positive about the longer term growth outlook in the Australian, Moroccan and Chinese markets.

Neutral retained, target falls to $2.20 from $2.80, resulting from a downgrade in earnings estimates for FY22 and FY23.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.2
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

While Challenger's investment experience was tracking positively as of the FY22 result, Credit Suisse expects a neutral to slightly negative experience from here on wider credit spreads and lower equities, while higher rates will drive ongoing margin expansion.

The broker retains Neutral on valuation but would be inclined to be positively disposed if higher rates began to drive a step-change in annuity book growth (which hasn't been seen yet) and larger margin expansion.

Target unchanged at $6.90.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $0.65
If CGF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.71, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

CSL's investor day on the recently acquired Vifor was as expected according to Citi, although the language of the presentation infers the earnings accretion has been pushed out.

The broker noted CSL offered a much better strategic explanation for Vifor, including forecast 10%-plus growth in revenue over the medium term, as the group's products are expanded into underdeveloped markets.

Nephrology is expected to be the "future jewel in the crown" with new product launches. Concerns linger around Vifor's product Ferinject and the iron franchise after 2027.

Citi makes minor adjustments to earnings forecasts of -1% and -2% for FY23 and FY24, to account for the changes in CSL earnings reporting to NPATA (net profit after tax & amortisation of Vifor acquisition), and reflect the -$200m FX impact.

The Buy rating and target price of $340.00 are retained.

Target price is $340.00 Current Price is $276.83 Difference: $63.17
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $323.95, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CSL as Neutral (3) -

CSL held an investor day to outline its plans for Vifor. Credit Suisse found Vifor guidance conservative, with earnings to be supported by new product launches, and is forecasting FY profit at the top end of guidance.

The broker believes Vifor will be a key contributor to growth for CSL, but views the business as lower quality, with the potential returns on the assets being muted by the license agreements and the Fresenius joint venture.

Neutral and $305 target retained.

Target price is $305.00 Current Price is $276.83 Difference: $28.17
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $323.95, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

CSL has guided to full year net profits of US$2,700-2,800m, including a US$300-330m contribution from Vifor. According to Macquarie, guidance implies annualised net profits of US$325-360m from Vifor, or 20-30% growth in FY23 on an annualised basis.

The broker reiterated its view of a positive growth outlook for CSL, underpinned by base business recovery, Vifor earnings and potential contributions from pipeline products. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $329.50 are retained.

Target price is $329.50 Current Price is $276.83 Difference: $52.67
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $323.95, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

CSL's newly upgraded full year net profit guidance of US$2.7-2.8bn, including a first contribution from Vifor, with strength in the acquisition offsetting pandemic impacts.

Having expected CSL to deliver softer guidance, Morgan Stanley reiterates merit in the Vifor acquisition, highlighting the purchase adds diversification and exposure to the untapped renal market.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $327.00 from $323.00. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $327.00 Current Price is $276.83 Difference: $50.17
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $323.95, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CSL as Add (1) -

Morgans views the CSL investor day for Vifor as positive with expected 10%-plus growth in revenues from the acquisition over the medium term, with improved leverage off an improved product suite across more markets.

The broker notes CSL has moved to reporting net profits after tax, ex-amortisation and one-off costs relating to the Vifor purchase.

After adjusting for the changes, Morgans estimates FY23 earnings of between US$2.5bn-US$2.7bn versus previous guidance of US$2.4bn-US$2.5bn.

The broker's earnings forecasts are adjusted by -4.5% to account for FX changes over FY23 to FY25.

The analyst remains positive on the earnings outlook as blood plasma collections remain strong and inventory is rebuilt, combined with demand strength for Behring and Seqirus alongside Vifor's incremental earnings contribution.

Morgans adjusts the target price to $312.20 from $321.30 and retains an ADD rating.

Target price is $312.20 Current Price is $276.83 Difference: $35.37
If CSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $323.95, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -

CSL expects the recently acquired Vifor can deliver medium-term revenue growth above 10%, ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast for high single-digit growth. 

The broker anticipates a strong lift in group results in FY24, supported by recovery in plasma product supply and a full year contribution from Vifor. 

The Accumulate rating and target price of $330.00 are retained.

Target price is $330.00 Current Price is $276.83 Difference: $53.17
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $323.95, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates DRR as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Outperform retained for Deterra Royalties, target falls to $4.90 from $5.00.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.19 Difference: $0.71
If DRR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EDV as Underperform (5) -

While Endeavour Group's quarterly update was largely in line with expectations and there is a strong positive story on leisure expenditure for FY23, retail liquor continues to underperform the market, Credit Suisse notes.

The broad-based introduction of pokie player loss caps is not the broker's base case (Tasmania the only state to indicate legislation) but could have a circa -20% negative impact on gaming revenue.

Credit Suisse upgrades earnings for the Hotels division, seeing an extended period of solid leisure expenditure, and downgrades Retail. Target rises to $6.62 from $6.61, Underperform retained.

Target price is $6.62 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Outperform (1) -

Endeavour Group delivered 3.1% year-on-year group sales growth in the first quarter, with retail sales down -6.2% but hotel sales up 90.8% as the company cycles lockdowns. 

A strong Christmas period is anticipated for both retail and hotel sales, but the company remains cautious on how a 4% retail pricing increase may impact on customer behaviour in the new calendar year, noting risk of customers opting for value offerings over premium. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $7.70 are retained.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: $0.73
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EDV as Hold (3) -

According to Morgans, Endeavour Group reported a better than expected 1Q23 trading update with sales rising 3.1%, as strength in hotels offset a decline in retail.

The decline in retail sales was largely attributable to the normalisation of earnings over the 2021 lockdown period.

After adjusting for NSW and Victoria, Morgans notes the underlying sales in liquor remain strong across a number of segments including "new, premium, low/no alcohol, craft and local products".

The Christmas outlook for Hotels is shaping up as positive with Endeavour Group highlighting the strong forward bookings as well as improved retail stock levels.

Hold rating is maintained and the target price is lifted to $7.31 from $7.30.

Target price is $7.31 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: $0.34
If EDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Buy (1) -

Endeavour Group's trading update proved slightly better-than-projected, comments Ord Minnett, also reflecting less market share loss in retail and the fact growth excluding Victoria and NSW turned out positive year-on-year.

The broker sees this company as well-positioned for any potential switches that may or may not occur in consumer spending.

Hotel operations performed in line with forecasts. Buy rating retained, target price $8.20 (unchanged).

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: $1.23
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Sell (5) -

UBS assesses the Endeavour Group's 1Q23 sales of 3.1% as better than expected with a -6.2% decline in retail sales as anticipated, while Hotel sales, up 90.8% were ahead of consensus and the broker's expectations.

The outlook for Hotels remains good with strong Christmas bookings and the potential for upside risks, notes UBS from five new hotels p.a., including 3 acquisitions in the 1Q23.

The broker adjusts earnings forecasts by 1.6% and 1.4% for FY23 and FY24 as a result of better Hotel sales.

A Sell rating is retained and the target price is adjusted to $6.75 from $6.60. 

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EHL as Outperform (1) -

Emeco Holdings has flagged potential risk to the full recovery of $32m in outstanding amounts owed to Pit N Portal for the completion of contractual services.

Pit N Portal's fleet has been demobilised, with all activities at the customer's site ceased as the company engages in discussion about the terms and timing of payment. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.20 are retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.44
If EHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Neutral retained for Evolution Mining, target falls to $2.20 from $2.45.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.3
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 31.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

UBS offers an update on Fortescue Metals post the site tours of Solomon, Eliwana and Iron Bridge.

The broker confirmed the strength of the operations at Solomon and Eliwana as one of the best operators in the Pilbara, but considers the time line for the completion of Iron Bridge remains a risk. 

A delay in the first tonnes shipped from Iron Bridge post March 2023 remains possible, although no material delays are expected on the 18 month ramp.

UBS also retains a cautious view for iron prices on a 12-month view. A Sell rating is retained for Fortescue Metals and the target remains at $14.30.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $16.91 Difference: minus $2.61 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.49, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Add (1) -

Morgans notes the Investment Bond (IB) sales inflows for Generation Development's 1Q23 results were softer than expected and at $136m were down on the previous year of $160, although the broker views them as "reasonable" given the macro environment.

Lonsec Investment Solutions FUM grew to $6.4bn and Morgans envisages ongoing growth, while the $3m sales in the Lifetime annuity product is considered a positive long-term growth story.

The broker's earnings forecasts are lowered by -3% and -4% for FY23 and FY24, respectively, accounting for lower IB sales.

An Add rating is maintained and the target price is lowered to $1.56 from $1.69.

Target price is $1.56 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.41
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Insurance Australia Group reported the start of a $350m share buy back, starting November, following what Citi considers as an end to the "court saga" with the BI (Business Interruption) provision.

The buyback is viewed a small part of the BI $975m provision, with some $360m released. 

Citi notes the near term mark-to-market impact on earnings as slightly negative, but considers the future higher investment yields as positive.

The broker adjusts earnings forecasts by -6% for FY23 and 4% for FY24.

The Buy rating is retained and the price target is raised to $5.40 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.51
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Insurance Australia Group has announced a $360m release of its Business Interruption provision and a $350m buyback, with Macquarie anticipating a further $200m provision release and buyback in the first half of FY24. 

The broker believes it would be prudent for Insurance Australia Group to discount further capital returns given the insurer will likely need to retain additional capital to account for a higher attachment point on catastrophe reinsurance.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.00 from $5.50.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $1.11
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Outperform retained for IGO, target rises to $17.00 from $14.50.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.07 Difference: $1.93
If IGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.12, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi has lowered forecasts for the industry on the back of higher pricing for natural gas and revised assumptions for ammonia and fertiliser prices.

European demand remains critical for nitrogen, points out the broker, while the outlook for phospate is bearish because of limited demand near term outside of India.

Target price reduced for Incitec Pivot to $3.70 from $4. Neutral. Forecasts have reduced.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.15
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

On touring Mineral Resources' lithium operations, Credit Suisse found the Wodgina ramp-up is on schedule, with plenty of growth options, and the Mt Marion expansion is on track.

The broker estimates increased volumes could add some $6/share to valuation.

Outperform and $75 target retained.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $68.92 Difference: $6.08
If MIN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $84.24, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Metcash's investor day provided a 23-week trading update (almost all of 1H23 expected earnings) with 7.7% sales growth, which is higher than the consensus estimate of 5%, notes Citi.

Supermarket sales of 1.5%, although moderating post August, suggest market share gains according to the broker. The Liquor group posted 12% sales growth, stronger than anticipated, while Hardware came in as expected with new store additions.

The trading update suggests a slowdown in supermarket sales, and FY23 company expectations for Liquor are below current levels.

Citi expects capex to come in higher at -$240m for FY23 and FY24, compared to previous guidance of -$190m to -$220m with some 60% targeted at Hardware.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and a $4.40 target price.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.6
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Metcash's investor day indicated sales revenue in Food Retail declined some -2% year on year in the six weeks to the trading update.

While the market share picture is unlikely to be clear until lockdowns are fully cycled, and therefore Metcash could be oversold on this recent update, it is unlikely that the stock will outperform near term, the broker believes.

The valuation is seen as attractive, as is a 5.5% yield, relative to the big supermarkets. Credit Suisse retains Neutral, but target falls to $4.16 from $4.67.

Target price is $4.16 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.36
If MTS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Outperform (1) -

In a strategy update for its food division, Metcash revealed plans to accelerate store openings, retain market share gains, and remain focused on being competitive on value. The company will also roll out new stores for hardware and reinvest in its network. 

Macquarie notes the company has also lifted its capital expenditure guidance 22% to -$250m from -$190-220m. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $4.60 are retained.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.8
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Metcash has announced major changes to its existing MFuture strategy at the first investor day under its new CEO.

Notably, capital expenditure guidance was increased to -$246.5m and -$256.5m in FY23 and FY24 respectively, with Ord Minnett expecting this will revert to -$135m long-term. 

The company has delivered good momentum across all three businesses, and Ord Minnett expects Metcash to continue to gain ground on peers. The company is targeting a number three market position in the food segment, ahead of Aldi. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.80 from $5.00.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $1
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has used a deep dive into the Australian market for mortgages to increase the price target for National Australia Bank to $29.60 from $28.50. Rating remains Equal-weight.

All in all, Morgan Stanley expects the banks to enjoy margin increases that are "materially" higher than consensus forecasts in the September and December quarters, but at the same time multiples should remain subdued on the back of macro uncertainty.

On average, EPS forecasts have lifted by 3-4% across the board for FY23 and FY24. 

The broker's major bank order of preference is now ANZ Bank on top, followed by Westpac, National Australia Bank, then CommBank. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $29.60 Current Price is $30.78 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.53, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Outperform and $24 target retained for Newcrest Mining.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $16.96 Difference: $7.04
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.53, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Outperform and $1.40 target retained for Nickel Industries.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.66
If NIC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Outperform retained for Northern Star Resources, target rises to $9.50 from $9.00.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.66 Difference: $1.84
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.07, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWH as Buy (1) -

UBS resumes coverage of NRW Holdings with a Buy rating and $3.10 target price.

The broker considers earnings growth will be driven by the Civil division which should benefit from the expected phase 2 iron ore capital expenditure cycle, of some US$24bn in investment over the next 3years, of which the addressable market for NRW Holdings is some US$2bn.

UBS also notes that the Primero acquisition will be a good strategic fit with the newly created MET division, noting the company has a strong track record in lithium mining.

Buy rating and $3.10 target.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: $0.65
If NWH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWS as Outperform (1) -

News Corp is exploring the possibility of re-merging with Fox Group, having de-merged almost a decade ago. Having sold off its entertainment assets to Disney, Fox is now just a news and sports broadcaster, Credit Suisse notes.

The broker doesn't see the deal as earnings accretive for either shareholders, but value could be realised if News were to spin out other assets, noting the company owns 60% of REA Group ((REA)), and ex-REA, trades on only a 2.7x enterprise value multiple.

No changes at this stage. Outperform and $38.10 target retained.

Target price is $38.10 Current Price is $26.84 Difference: $11.26
If NWS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.87, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NWS as Overweight (1) -

News Corp is considering a potential merger with its sister company Fox, but has stated there is no certainty a transaction will occur. Morgan Stanley sees positives to the merger from a shareholder perspective, claiming scale matters more than ever in global media.

The broker considers simplification of News Corp's asset portfolio as the main opportunity to unlock value for shareholders, and feels the most value for existing shareholders would be gained if this simplification was undertaken before any merger. 

The Overweight rating and target price of US$30.00 are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Current Price is $26.84. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $33.87, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Citi has lowered forecasts for the industry on the back of higher pricing for natural gas and revised assumptions for ammonia and fertiliser prices.

European demand remains critical for nitrogen, points out the broker, while the outlook for phospate is bearish because of limited demand near term outside of India.

Citi also prefers to remain conservative on synergie benefits from the Axis acquisition. Neutral rating retained for Orica, with the price target not shifting from $14.70.

It appears the broker is returning post an interruption in coverage.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $13.41 Difference: $1.29
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.12, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OZL as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Neutral and $28 target retained for OZ Minerals.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $25.75 Difference: $2.25
If OZL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.48, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett found the Q1 performance "robust" against a tough trading environment. Net flows slightly beat estimates with the broker pointing towards Powerwrap for the upside surprise.

Ord Minnett believes Praemium's update shows bottlenecks are disappearing for the industry, and this means more market share is up for grabs for the operators of independent platforms.

Ord Minnett reiterates its Buy rating with a price target of $1 (unchanged). No changes were made to forecasts.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.29
If PPS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Outperform and $1.85 target retained for Perseus Mining.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.3
If PRU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Outperform retained for Regis Resources, target rises to $1.75 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.22
If RRL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Outperform retained for South32, target falls to $4.45 from $4.60.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.69
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 29.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SBM as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Neutral retained for St. Barbara, target falls to 80c from 90c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.13
If SBM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting upside of 91.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Credit Suisse has marked to market the SepQ and revalued for its commodities team’s recent revisions, and lowered its near-term AUD assumptions.

The broker now expects the base metals (copper, nickel, zinc) to perform better in the second half but sees pressure on alumina, met coal and iron ore.

Sandfire Resources upgraded to Neutral from Underperform, target rises to $3.75 from $3.55.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.09
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 29.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Stockland has announced a -45% quarter-on-quarter residential sales decline in the first quarter, but did reiterate full year settlement guidance. Macquarie is increasingly cautious on the company's sales volume outlook through the remainder of the year.

Thr broker highlights annualising the 845 residential sales achieved in the first quarter would equate to full year settlements of 4,300, rather than the 6,000 guided to by the company. Macquarie now forecasts 4,600 total settlements for the year.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price deceases to $3.32 from $3.74. 

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.09
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Stockland maintains full year guidance for 6,000 residential settlements, with 845 residential sales within Morgan Stanley's expected 800-900 lots for the quarter. The broker anticipates similar sales in the second quarter with inquiries having moderated to pre-covid levels. 

The broker finds soft residential sales to be within market expectations, and reiterates the focus for the current fiscal year will be developments. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $4.30 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $1.07
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGP as Hold (3) -

It did not come as a surprise to Ord Minnett, but Stockland's Q1 trading update came with the warning that residential sales volumes are slowing, and slowing "materially".

Luckily, for the company, there is strength in retail sales and strong leasing growth in the industrial segment.

Ord Minnett continues to rate the stock as a Hold with a price target of $4.20.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.97
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

Volpara Health Technologies is due to release the 2Q23 earnings report next week. Morgans remains positive on the company.

The broker hosted the MD/CEO, Teri Thomas at the Morgans Conference last Thursday where the company highlighted the aim to move to profits by concentrating on larger customers which should help raise the revenue per account and lower the costs.

The company is aiming for revenue growth of 20-33% or NZ$31.5m-NZ$33m in FY23. Add rating and $1.20 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.62
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 107% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has used a deep dive into the Australian market for mortgages to increase the price target for Westpac to $24.40 from $23. Rating remains Overweight.

All in all, Morgan Stanley expects the banks to enjoy margin increases that are "materially" higher than consensus forecasts in the September and December quarters, but at the same time multiples should remain subdued on the back of macro uncertainty.

On average, EPS forecasts have lifted by 3-4% across the board for FY23 and FY24. 

The broker's major bank order of preference is now ANZ Bank on top, followed by Westpac, National Australia Bank, then CommBank. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $23.43 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.06, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy has placed an order for an alkaline hydrogen electrolyser for its first hydrogen project, H20K. Macquarie expects the US$55m contract to cover a 150-170 megawatt electrolyser, as well as alkaline stacks and stack equipment.

The electrolyser should allow for the production of 64 tonnes of hydrogen per day, -26 tonnes per day short of Woodside Energy's planned 90 tonnes per day production. The company is anticipating a final investment decision in 2023, and first production in 2025.

The Neutral rating and target price of $30.45 are retained.

Target price is $30.45 Current Price is $33.13 Difference: minus $2.68 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.36, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources