Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

For 29metals, Morgan Stanley raises its target price to $3.40 from $3.10 after higher EPS estimates and a higher forecast long-term copper price lifts the broker's base-case valuation.The Overweight rating is unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.55
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AKE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

For Allkem, Morgan Stanley's Equal-weight rating is retained, while the target rises to $11.30 from $10.35.  Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $0.29
If AKE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AKE as Buy (1) -

After allowing for the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the UBS commodities team sees higher commodity prices for longer on the assumption the global economy avoids a material downturn.

The broker's price revisions are highest for thermal and metallurgical coal, nickel, aluminium, zinc, the platinum group metals, iron ore and gold. It is believed demand headwinds will be offset by commodity supply disruptions/trade re-alignment for the next 12-18 months.

Allkem is one of the broker's key picks and the price target moves up to $13.80 from $12.40. Buy.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $2.79
If AKE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

UBS notes independent data show Aristocrat Leisure is the top performing manufacturer in both premium and non-premium categories and key franchises like Dragon Link are performing well.

The analyst points out the gaming category has been relatively resilient over time, and continues to forecast around 15% per annum
profit growth over the next three years. The Buy rating and $49 target are maintained.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $36.62 Difference: $12.38
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.40, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Buy (1) -

Aurelia Metals has announced geological complexities at its newly acquired Dargues gold mine that will impact grade expectations, but Ord Minnett notes the update doesn't change its valuation.

The company anticipates the discovery will reduce grades -15% and cost $60-80m by way of an impairment charge. However the project retains an expected four-year mine life at a 45-55,000 ounce per annum production.

Incorporating a $70m impairment charge into Ord Minnett's second half forecasts sees net profit fall to $23m from $47m.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.95 from $1.00.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.46
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ATA as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage on IT services company Atturra with an Add rating and $0.78 target price. The company provides expertise across a range of specialist in-demand IT areas for many of Australia’s largest private and public organisations.

High demand for services including cloud, remote working and general digitisation trends are set to benefit the company, according to the analyst.

The broker cautions there may be share price volatility as the company has a limited trading history on the ASX and limited share trading liquidity.

Target price is $0.78 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.09
If ATA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

For Alumina Ltd, Morgan Stanley sees potential upside to alumina input costs (bauxite, caustic and energy all declining), which could help support higher prices. Also, elevated freight rates into China could also assist in buoying alumina prices in 2022.

The broker raises its target price to $2.30 from $2.10 and maintains its Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.3
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

After allowing for the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the UBS commodities team sees higher commodity prices for longer on the assumption the global economy avoids a material downturn.

The broker's price revisions are highest for thermal and metallurgical coal, nickel, aluminium, zinc, the platinum group metals, iron ore and gold. It is believed demand headwinds will be offset by commodity supply disruptions/trade re-alignment for the next 12-18 months.

For BHP Group, UBS raises its target to $43 from $42 and retains its Neutral rating.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $49.77 Difference: minus $6.77 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $49.56, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

Morgan Stanley lifts its target price for Deterra Royalties to $5.25 from $4.70 while noting the company's yield is less sensitive than peers to iron ore price changes. The Overweight rating is maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.67 Difference: $0.58
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

After allowing for the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the UBS commodities team sees higher commodity prices for longer on the assumption the global economy avoids a material downturn.

The broker's price revisions are highest for thermal and metallurgical coal, nickel, aluminium, zinc, the platinum group metals, iron ore and gold. It's  believed demand headwinds will be offset by commodity supply disruptions/trade re-alignment for the next 12-18 months.

For Deterra Royalties, UBS raises its target price to $4.40 from $4.10 and retains its Neutral rating.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.67 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

For Evolution Mining, Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating and $5.05 price target.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.54 Difference: $0.51
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

After allowing for the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the UBS commodities team sees higher commodity prices for longer on the assumption the global economy avoids a material downturn.

The broker's price revisions are highest for thermal and metallurgical coal, nickel, aluminium, zinc, the platinum group metals, iron ore and gold. It's believed demand headwinds will be offset by commodity supply disruptions/trade re-alignment for the next 12-18 months.

Evolution Mining is one of the broker's least preferred exposures in its coverage of the mining sector. The broker downgrades its rating to Sell from Neutral, while the target price rises to $4.23 from $3.65.

Target price is $4.23 Current Price is $4.54 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

Across Morgan Stanley's mining sector coverage, Fortescue Metals is the least preferred due to a lack of valuation support and risks surrounding rising Fortescue Future Industries spending. The Underweight rating is maintained.

The target rises to $15.95 from $13. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $15.95 Current Price is $19.27 Difference: minus $3.32 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.59, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

After allowing for the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the UBS commodities team sees higher commodity prices for longer on the assumption the global economy avoids a material downturn.

The broker's price revisions are highest for thermal and metallurgical coal, nickel, aluminium, zinc, the platinum group metals, iron ore and gold. It's  believed demand headwinds will be offset by commodity supply disruptions/trade re-alignment for the next 12-18 months.

For Fortescue Metals, UBS raises its rating to Neutral from Sell after upgrading its iron ore price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 by 23% and 24% to $135/dmt and $105/dmt [62% Fines cost and freight (CFR) China] with minor changes to forecasts from 2024.

The target price rises to $17.10 from $16.30.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $19.27 Difference: minus $2.17 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.59, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPH as Outperform (1) -

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's updated full year revenue guidance of $1.69-1.70bn was a -3% miss on Macquarie's estimates, with the broker attributing lower than expected consumables revenue to a decrease in hospitalisation intensity.

According to Macquarie while the company has delivered around seven years' worth of device growth in just two years, clinical device adoption may take longer than previously expected but a clear read on device adoption is unlikely until FY23.

In the meantime, the broker reduces earnings per share estimates -5%, -21% and -23% through to FY24 on decreasing hospitalisations.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to NZ$29.87 from NZ$37.57.

Current Price is $22.82. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $27.00, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GOR as Buy (1) -

After allowing for the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the UBS commodities team sees higher commodity prices for longer on the assumption the global economy avoids a material downturn.

The broker's price revisions are highest for thermal and metallurgical coal, nickel, aluminium, zinc, the platinum group metals, iron ore and gold. It's believed demand headwinds will be offset by commodity supply disruptions/trade re-alignment for the next 12-18 months.

For Gold Road Resources, UBS raises its target price to $2.05 from $1.94 and retains the Buy rating.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.35
If GOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

For IGO, Morgan Stanley retains its Underweight rating and raises its target to $11.35 from $10.05.

Target price is $11.35 Current Price is $13.68 Difference: minus $2.33 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.55, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

For Iluka Resources, Morgan Stanley increases its target price to $9.75 from $8.70 and maintains its Equal-weight rating. The mineral sands market is thought to remain tight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $11.05 Difference: minus $1.3 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.41, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

Morgan Stanley lifts its rating for Mineral Resources to Overweight from Equal-weight and raises its target to $56 from $45.70.

While lithium production is ramping-up and high prices are being achieved, higher iron ore prices are also benefiting the company's high cost operations, explains the analyst. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $48.69 Difference: $7.31
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.09, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

After allowing for the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the UBS commodities team sees higher commodity prices for longer on the assumption the global economy avoids a material downturn.

The broker's price revisions are highest for thermal and metallurgical coal, nickel, aluminium, zinc, the platinum group metals, iron ore and gold. It's  believed demand headwinds will be offset by commodity supply disruptions/trade re-alignment for the next 12-18 months.

For Mineral Resources, UBS lowers its target price to $54.45 from $61.80 and retains its Buy rating.

Target price is $54.45 Current Price is $48.69 Difference: $5.76
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.09, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

While Morgan Stanley lowers its target price for Newcrest Mining to $33.70 from $34.20, an Overweight stance is retained. The company is the broker's preferred pick in its gold sector coverage due to long term growth potential. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $33.70 Current Price is $26.90 Difference: $6.8
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.83, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

After allowing for the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the UBS commodities team sees higher commodity prices for longer on the assumption the global economy avoids a material downturn.

The broker's price revisions are highest for thermal and metallurgical coal, nickel, aluminium, zinc, the platinum group metals, iron ore and gold. It is believed demand headwinds will be offset by commodity supply disruptions/trade re-alignment for the next 12-18 months.

For Newcrest Mining, UBS lowers its rating to Neutral from Buy and raises its target to $27.10 from $26.50.

Target price is $27.10 Current Price is $26.90 Difference: $0.2
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.83, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

While Morgan Stanley lowers its target price for Northern Star Resources to $12.80 from $13.20, an Overweight stance is retained. The company is thought to provide the best earnings sensistivity and highest free cash flow in the broker's gold sector coverage.

Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $10.78 Difference: $2.02
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.42, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -

After allowing for the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the UBS commodities team sees higher commodity prices for longer on the assumption the global economy avoids a material downturn.

The broker's price revisions are highest for thermal and metallurgical coal, nickel, aluminium, zinc, the platinum group metals, iron ore and gold. It is believed demand headwinds will be offset by commodity supply disruptions/trade re-alignment for the next 12-18 months.

Northern Star Resources is one of the broker's key picks and the price target moves up to $12 from $10.80 and Buy rating retained.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.78 Difference: $1.22
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.42, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

For OZ Minerals, Morgan Stanley raises its target price to $26.40 from $25.90 after raising copper and gold forecasts. The Equal-weight rating is maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $26.40 Current Price is $26.89 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.28, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

On the back of a solid first half result from Premier Investments, Citi is increasingly convinced of the company's ability to perform well through the transition to normalisation given it is well-positioned for an ecommerce shift and retains strong brand recognition.

Smiggle remains the point of uncertainty among Premier Investments' brands, and while some recovery was demonstrated in the first half it was below the broker's expectations. Citi expects the brand's sales to return to pre-covid levels by FY23.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $30.80 from $30.30.

Target price is $30.80 Current Price is $28.48 Difference: $2.32
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.18, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PMV as Outperform (1) -

Premier Investments' reported first half earnings of $212m were slightly ahead of guidance despite a weaker than anticipated performance from Smiggle. Credit Suisse described results, including retained elevated gross margins, as exceptional given trading disruptions.

Peter Alexander reported a sales increase of 57% above the pre-pandemic levels seen in the first half of FY20, and strong performance from the brand more than offsets downgraded forecasts for Smiggle, where sales remain below pre-covid levels.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $30.10 from $29.16.

Target price is $30.10 Current Price is $28.48 Difference: $1.62
If PMV meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.18, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMV as Outperform (1) -

First half earnings growth of 5.5% to $196.4m was in line with Macquarie's expectations for Premier Investments. Despite a challenging environment in the half, like-for-like sales growth of 8.9%, including 27.3% growth in higher margin online sales, drove the result.

The company also benefited from improved performance from its higher gross margin brands, including Smiggle.

With challenges including inflationary pressure and elevated freight costs expected to continue, the broker decreases expected full year earnings per share -1.6% to account for conservatism towards margins.

The Outperform rating and target price of $35.00 are retained.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $28.48 Difference: $6.52
If PMV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.18, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PMV as Equal-weight (3) -

On Morgan Stanley's first impression, 1H sales and earnings for Premier Investments were in-line with guidance. The broker notes strong sales momentum, ahead of the consensus expectation, is continuing into the first five weeks of the 2H.

The broker estimates that if the three year historical 1H/2H split can be achieved, then the consensus forecast for FY22 Retail earnings will be met. However, it's thought industry-wide inflation may weigh upon the sustainability of margins.

The Equal-weight rating and $26.75 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $26.75 Current Price is $28.48 Difference: minus $1.73 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.18, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PMV as Accumulate (2) -

While largely pre-announced, Ord Minnett notes Premier Investments' first half results were slightly above guidance and with a record 65.9% gross margin.The broker expects the company to finish the year with flat year-on-year margin growth, before settling near 63% by FY24.

With sales from Smiggle missing expectations the broker has decreased earnings forecasts -0.8% and -1.8% in FY22 and FY23 respectively. Despite this, Ord Minnett expects the company is well placed to benefit from the unpredictable retail environment.

The Accumulate rating is retained and the target price increases to $33.40 from $32.10.

Target price is $33.40 Current Price is $28.48 Difference: $4.92
If PMV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.18, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Following 1H results for Premier Investments, UBS points out gross margins were slightly ahead of the broker's expectation, while cash flow was weaker than expected due to higher inventory levels.

This higher inventory resulted from a build for Chinese New Year and the overall disrupted supply chain, explains the analyst.

UBS has raised its FY22 and FY23 EPS forecasts by 3% and 2% respectively. The target price rises to $31 from $30 and the Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $28.48 Difference: $2.52
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.18, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

Rio Tinto remains Morgan Stanley's preferred iron ore exposure, with options to either pursue growth and/or increase shareholder returns. The Overweight rating is maintained and the target price rises to $130.5 from $122.50. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $130.50 Current Price is $116.87 Difference: $13.63
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $119.50, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS upgrades Rio Tinto to Neutral from Sell and raises its target price to $104 from $90 on an improving risk reward ratio for the iron ore price over the next 12 months.

Apart from the boost via the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the analyst notes stronger-than-expected data from China in January and February and believes there is a prospect of further easing to achieve the country's growth targets.

The broker upgrades its 2022 iron ore price forecast to US$135/t from $110/t and its 2023 forecast to US$105/t from $85/t.

Target price is $104.00 Current Price is $116.87 Difference: minus $12.87 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $119.50, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

For Regis Resources, Morgan Stanley lowers its target price to $2.30 from $2.35 while retaining its Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.13
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.31, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

Morgan Stanley raises its target price for South32 to $6.05 from $5.05 and maintains its Overweight rating. The company remains the broker's top pick across its mining sector coverage due to base metals and met coal exposure. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: $0.95
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.72, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

After allowing for the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the UBS commodities team sees higher commodity prices for longer on the assumption the global economy avoids a material downturn.

The broker's price revisions are highest for thermal and metallurgical coal, nickel, aluminium, zinc, the platinum group metals, iron ore and gold. It is  believed demand headwinds will be offset by commodity supply disruptions/trade re-alignment for the next 12-18 months.

South32 is one of the broker's key picks and the price target moves up to $6.30 from $5. Buy.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: $1.2
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.72, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

Morgan Stanley has Sandfire Resources listed as its third preferred exposure across its mining sector coverage. It's felt higher costs at MATSA are now more than priced in and the target price rises to $7.35 from $6.65. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: $1.64
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.39, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Buy (1) -

After allowing for the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the UBS commodities team sees higher commodity prices for longer on the assumption the global economy avoids a material downturn.

The broker's price revisions are highest for thermal and metallurgical coal, nickel, aluminium, zinc, the platinum group metals, iron ore and gold. It is believed demand headwinds will be offset by commodity supply disruptions/trade re-alignment for the next 12-18 months.

For Sandfire Resources, UBS raises its target price to $7.35 from $7 and retains its Buy rating.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: $1.64
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.39, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SOL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Following solid 1H results, Morgans raises its rating for WH Soul Pattinson to Add from Hold given more than 10% upside for total shareholder returns to the new 12-month target of $30.60, reduced from $36.78.

Underlying group profit was $344m, up by 281% on the previous corresponding period.

The new target arises after allowing for the 1H result and further improvements to the broker's near-term yield assumptions post the recent results of core portfolio holdings.

Target price is $30.60 Current Price is $27.59 Difference: $3.01
If SOL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

For Syrah Resources, Morgan Stanley decreases its target price to $1.35 from $1.40. Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UMG as Outperform (1) -

The Russia Ukraine conflict seems to have exacerbated United Malt's supply constraint issues and input costs, with Macquarie noting the company's share price has declined -10% since Russia's invasion seemingly as a reflection.

Despite no direct exposure to the European conflict the company anticipates North American logistical costs of $8-12m to manage supply constraints in FY22. More positively, Macquarie believes underlying trends remain positive for on-premise recovery in key geographies.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.29 from $4.55.

Target price is $4.29 Current Price is $3.87 Difference: $0.42
If UMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.77, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

Morgan Stanley expects thermal coal to trade higher for longer and sees 31% upside for Whitehaven Coal. It's felt longer term value should derive from project approvals and development, particularly at the Vickery project.

The company is the broker's second most preferred pick across  its mining sector coverage, behind South32 ((S32)). The target rises to $5.45 from $3.75 and the Overweight rating is maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $0.97
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.11, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WSA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley points to near-term earnings support for the mining sector from inflation expectations, rising input costs (particularly energy) and supply impacts from the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

Should inflation persist and demand destruction is avoided, longer-term commodity price estimates will need to be raised across the sector, suggests the broker. This is especially the case for commodities like aluminium, alumina and zinc, which have high input costs.

For Western Areas, Morgan Stanley maintains its Underweight rating, while increasing its target price to $3.40 from $2.95. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.62 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources