Australian Broker Call

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October 30, 2019

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
FLN - FREELANCER Upgrade to Neutral from Sell UBS
PLS - PILBARA MINERALS Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
360  LIFE360 INC

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $3.48

Credit Suisse rates 360 as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse was pleased with the September quarter update as the core subscription business has outperformed expectations. The broker is increasingly confident regarding revenue and earnings guidance.

Product pricing is expected to improve meaningfully in the first half of 2020. Outperform rating and $5.20 target reiterated.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $1.72
If 360 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 32.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.57.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.02.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BGA  BEGA CHEESE LIMITED

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $3.66

Morgans rates BGA as Hold (3) -

Challenging operating conditions have caused the company to assume weak earnings guidance for FY20. Operating earnings (EBITDA) have been guided at $95-105m, which is -10-19% below consensus forecasts, Morgans suggests. This is also -9-18% below FY19 results.

Falling milk supply and excess manufacturing capacity are creating fierce competition for milk. Given a stretched balance sheet, the broker remains cautious about the stock and retains a Hold rating. Target is reduced to $3.60 from $3.88.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If BGA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.27.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.53.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates BGA as Buy (1) -

Bega Chees's maiden FY20 guidance leads the broker to cut FY20-21 earnings forecasts by -30% and -14%. The company has blamed an escalation of competitive milk supply conditions and easing in demand from third party exporters.

While Bega is close to a debt covenant breach, the broker does not believe one would be enforced due to strong asset and inventory backing and interest serviceability.

The broker is expecting a step-up in milk pricing in FY21 and a return to more normal conditions by FY22. Buy retained, target falls to $5.10 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $1.44
If BGA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 12.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.52.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.90 cents and EPS of 22.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.49.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BVS  BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $3.93

Macquarie rates BVS as Outperform (1) -

Bravura Solutions has acquired FinoComp, which provides software to registry systems, for $25m. The acquisition is expected to deliver around $6.8m in revenue and $1.2m in operating earnings (EBITDA) on a pro forma basis.

Macquarie assesses the acquisition enhances the company's wealth management capability. The decline in the share price recently is likely to be the result of an absence of short-term news flow, in the broker's opinion.

Outperform rating and $5.55 target maintained.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $1.62
If BVS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.90 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.19.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.10 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.72.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR  CARSALES.COM LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $15.51

Morgans rates CAR as Reduce (5) -

Morgans incorporates the impact of the new accounting standard for leases. Changes to forecasts occur at the operating earnings (EBITDA) line while changes in net profit are immaterial.

The broker maintains a Reduce rating and raises the target to $14.04 from $13.80.

Target price is $14.04 Current Price is $15.51 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.52, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.9, implying annual growth of 65.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.7, implying annual growth of 11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGC  COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $2.66

Morgans rates CGC as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes significant challenges have been experienced by the company since the interim result. This has led to material downgrades for 2019. Costa Group has undertaken a large equity raising to strengthen its balance sheet.

The broker expects an earnings recovery in FY20 but remains around -16% below guidance. Scope for an earnings recovery is envisaged over 2020-21 as growth projects deliver and seasonal/structural pressures ease.

Still, Morgans expects it will take time for the market to regain confidence in the growth outlook. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.56 from $3.48.

Target price is $2.56 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If CGC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of -74.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.8, implying annual growth of 50.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CGC as Buy (1) -

Costa Group has slashed its 2019 profit guidance by -50%, provided 2020 guidance -7% below consensus, and announced a capital raising via rights issue at $2.20. UBS has cut earnings forecasts by -28-50% across the forecast period to reflect both the downgrade and dilution. Target price is under review.

The broker nonetheless poses the question, after four downgrades this year, how much of the issue relates simply to a one-off bad year of drought, poor yields, additional water costs and ongoing raspberry "crumbling"? Could 2020 see a turnaround?

It will all come down to one thing: rain. The broker retains Buy for now.

Current Price is $2.66. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of -74.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.3.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.8, implying annual growth of 50.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLQ  CLEAN TEQ HOLDINGS LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $0.24

Macquarie rates CLQ as No Rating (-1) -

The company's first quarter activities report indicates the scope of work plans for the project with Fluor Australia have begun and are scheduled for completion in the fourth quarter of FY20.

During the September quarter work continued on the Sunrise project. Macquarie makes modest changes to earnings forecasts, reducing FY20 estimates for earnings per share by -8%.

The broker is currently restricted from making a recommendation.

Current Price is $0.24. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.82.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL  COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $14.80

Citi rates COL as Neutral (3) -

While like-for-like sales growth in the first quarter was flat it was better-than-expected by the market, Citi observes. Second quarter sales growth is expected to improve to 2.4% as a soft November and December 2018 is cycled and inflation remains elevated.

Citi upgrades estimates for FY20 and FY21 by 1%. The broker retains a Neutral rating as the stock is trading close to fair value.

Citi expects Coles to remain fully priced for some time, given the demand for defensive income streams from Australian investors. Target rises to $14.70 from $13.90.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $14.80 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 56.50 cents and EPS of 66.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of -21.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 60.60 cents and EPS of 71.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.2, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates COL as Underperform (5) -

Sales growth accelerated in the early weeks of the December quarter, Credit Suisse observes, towards the 2.2% rate achieved in the June quarter.

The broker assesses the major supermarkets have allowed their price competitiveness to weaken. Both majors appear to be taking price increases, creating more support for margin than in the recent past.

Coles supermarket like-for-like sales in the September quarter were flat and in line with Credit Suisse forecasts. The main negative noted was a considerable lag in automation and data usage vs competitor Woolworths ((WOW)).

Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $13.17 from $13.23.

Target price is $13.17 Current Price is $14.80 Difference: minus $1.63 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 55.41 cents and EPS of 65.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of -21.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 60.82 cents and EPS of 71.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.2, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates COL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes a flat September quarter was better than the bearish market expectations. The broker also welcomes an improvement in dry grocery inflation at the start of the December quarter.

Total sales growth was 1.8% in the first quarter and comparable store sales growth of 0.1% in supermarkets was the softest in 12 years.

Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating on the back of higher costs and increased competitive pressures. Target is raised to $15.00 from $13.62.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $14.80 Difference: $0.2
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 49.70 cents and EPS of 62.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of -21.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 50.70 cents and EPS of 63.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.2, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates COL as Equal-weight (3) -

First quarter sales were broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. Like-for-like sales growth in supermarkets was 0.1%.

Supermarket price inflation of 1.4% in the September quarter was in line with the June quarter. Online sales growth slowed to 23.5% from 30%.

The company has indicated that December quarter comparable sales growth is trending towards June quarter levels of 2.2%.

Equal-Weight retained. Industry view: Cautious. Target is $13.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $14.80 Difference: minus $1.8 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of -21.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.2, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates COL as Hold (3) -

First quarter sales were slightly better than Morgans expected. The main negative was liquor, which was affected by the timing of public holidays. Morgans expects underlying earnings (EBIT) to decrease by -1% in FY20.

While sales continue to grow, the earnings impact remains unclear because of ongoing investment in automation, store format, ranges and data. Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $14.01 from $13.20.

Target price is $14.01 Current Price is $14.80 Difference: minus $0.79 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of -21.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.2, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates COL as Lighten (4) -

Like-for-like sales growth in supermarkets was 0.1% in the September quarter and beat Ord Minnett's estimates. The broker estimates second quarter growth will remain subdued, at 1.6%.

The willingness of Coles to support food inflation is a positive for the industry, in the broker's opinion. Estimates are unchanged. Lighten rating maintained. Target rises to $12.50 from $12.00.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $14.80 Difference: minus $2.3 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of -21.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.2, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates COL as Sell (5) -

Coles surprised by growing sales in the Sep Q when all and sundry expected a contraction. The broker nevertheless notes this was driven by FlyBuys activity and margin-dilutive online promotions.

Inflation returned, which meant real sales growth actually was negative. Coles continued to lose share.

If the company continues to push for sales growth at the expense of margins, UBS sees earnings risk to the downside, with the potential of a step-up in investment to counter falling market share. Sell retained, with target rising to $13.00 from $12.65. Woolworths ((WOW)) and Metcash ((MTS)) are preferred.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $14.80 Difference: minus $1.8 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of -21.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.2, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELO  ELMO SOFTWARE LIMITED

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $6.64

Morgan Stanley rates ELO as Overweight (1) -

The company has reiterated FY20 guidance for revenue of $53-55m and operating earnings (EBITDA) of  $1-3m. Elmo Software has also noted traction in the lower mid-market and success in cross selling modules across its customer base.

The AGM will be held on November 26. Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating, In-Line industry view. Target is $9.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.64 Difference: $2.36
If ELO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 31.62.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of minus 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 41.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLN  FREELANCER LIMITED

IT & Support

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Overnight Price: $0.76

UBS rates FLN as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Freelancer posted benign organic growth in the Sep Q once adjusted for currency. The company is at a challenging crossroad, UBS suggests. Underlying growth is underwhelming but changes to the platform and new currency offerings in Escrow have the potential to re-stimulate.

Penetration of Escrow payments into the second hand car market creates significant longer term potential but is as yet unproven.

The broker has reduced forecasts and its target to 79c from 88c but upgrades to Neutral on valuation.

Target price is $0.79 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.03
If FLN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 760.00.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 380.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $8.78

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

The company has highlighted a record operating performance at the AGM and has a focus on growth and increasing shareholder returns. An improving product mix continues to drive higher price realisation.

Fortescue Metals has approved the development of Eliwana and Iron Bridge for a combined US$3.9bn. The company has also maintained and reiterated a dividend yield of 50-80% of earnings.

Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating. Target is $10.30.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $8.78 Difference: $1.52
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.34, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 128.19 cents and EPS of 191.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 14.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 145.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 16.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 73.58 cents and EPS of 105.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.6, implying annual growth of -47.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX  JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $24.94

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

The business is benefiting from improved US housing activity and experiencing cost relief. Combined with internal initiatives, this provides Morgan Stanley with the confidence that 6% primary demand growth and margins of over 25% are achievable.

The broker does not believe the re-rating opportunity has played out and the stock continues to trade at a discount to Australian industrial peers.

This disregards the quality & growth attributes of the business, suggest the analysts, and Morgan Stanley reiterates an Overweight rating. Target is raised to $28 from $25. Cautious industry view.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $24.94 Difference: $3.06
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.34, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 58.46 cents and EPS of 116.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 67.02 cents and EPS of 138.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.5, implying annual growth of 15.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KLL  KALIUM LAKES LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $0.48

Macquarie rates KLL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes a busy first quarter, with around $19.5m in development expenditure at Beyondie. The company has locked down funding, with a $72m capital raising, while securing $176m in government-backed debt.

Phase 1 is expected to start commissioning late in 2020. Macquarie reduces estimates for FY20 by -7%, given this is a sensitive development year, and makes no material changes thereafter. Outperform and 90c target retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.42
If KLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.67.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.46.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV  LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Luxury

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Overnight Price: $13.26

Citi rates LOV as Buy (1) -

Lovisa continues to have the best long-term growth story in the Australian small cap retail sector, in Citi's view. This is supported by a global roll-out that is ahead of expectations.

Gross margin pressure from currency is considered temporary and cost investment in new markets necessary. The broker retains a Buy rating and $14.10 target.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $13.26 Difference: $0.84
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 33.50 cents and EPS of 36.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.6, implying annual growth of 10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 41.40 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.4, implying annual growth of 25.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates LOV as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes a marginal softening in same-store sales momentum in the year to date but points out the key trading period is yet to come. Store roll-out is considered the key driver of the investment case.

The US is the main medium-term opportunity, in the broker's view. Outperform rating maintained. Target rises to $14.50 from $13.50.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $13.26 Difference: $1.24
If LOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 37.80 cents and EPS of 41.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.6, implying annual growth of 10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 51.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.4, implying annual growth of 25.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley understands the appeal of a global roll-out amid strong unit economics. However, this is balanced by a significant premium in the stock. Hence, both a strong result in like-for-like sales and store growth are required to maintain that premium.

The latest AGM information points to a faster pace in store roll-out and a focus on the US, but like-for-like sales growth has softened since August, the broker observes.

Equal-weight rating retained heading into the crucial Christmas period. Target is raised to $11.40 from $9.00. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $13.26 Difference: minus $1.86 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 38.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.6, implying annual growth of 10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.10 cents and EPS of 48.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.4, implying annual growth of 25.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates LOV as Add (1) -

Same-store sales growth has moderated slightly in the year to date but remains positive. Morgans is pleased the store roll-out continues to accelerate. There are now 33 stores in the US.

While this stock is far from cheap, obtaining exposure to a significant global roll-out is rare in the Australian retail sector, the broker points out.

Add rating retained. Target price is raised to $14.12 from $13.66.

Target price is $14.12 Current Price is $13.26 Difference: $0.86
If LOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.60 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.6, implying annual growth of 10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 39.10 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.4, implying annual growth of 25.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAI  MAINSTREAM GROUP HOLDINGS LTD

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $0.52

Morgans rates MAI as Add (1) -

Morgans notes a strong September quarter, with a sequential increase of 6% in funds under administration.

The main negative in the update was growth in client and fund numbers, which is tracking well below FUA growth, reflecting some industry consolidation and the closure of small funds.

The broker maintains a steady outlook, awaiting further data points before re-examining estimates. Add rating and $0.64 target maintained.

Target price is $0.64 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.12
If MAI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.30 cents and EPS of 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.25.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.40 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.06.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MWY  MIDWAY LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $1.80

Morgans rates MWY as Hold (3) -

Midway has downgraded FY20 earnings guidance because of challenging industry fundamentals, now expecting first half operating earnings to be down more than -50%.

The woodchip market has been affected by excess production and stocks of paper pulp in Brazil amid US tariffs on Chinese paper imports. Woodchip export vessels from Australia are being cancelled or deferred and customers are trading down to lower quality wood fibre products, Morgans notes.

In some cases demand for woodchips from Australia is being replaced by supply from Vietnam or other lower quality sources. Morgans maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $1.88 from $3.16.

Target price is $1.88 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.08
If MWY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 180.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS  PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $0.31

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

September quarter spodumene concentrate production was just 27% of annualised capacity and -67% lower than the prior quarter, Citi notes.

The company has successfully concluded a $111m capital raising which should help it manage working capital requirements during the ramp up of Pilgangoora. Citi suspects, for the short term, lithium market dynamics are likely to get worse before they get better.

Neutral/High Risk rating. Target reduced to $0.35 from $0.40.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.04
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 103.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates PLS as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Production was higher and sales lower in the September quarter as production was curtailed at Pilgangoora. The company has reduced December quarter sales guidance because of continued market weakness.

Macquarie notes a muted spodumene market is squeezing the company's sales volumes, and a recovery in demand in the near-term will determine whether curtailment measures are lifted as well as provide more certainty on stage 2.

Target is reduced to $0.32 from $0.60 and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.01
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Pilbara Minerals shipped 20,000t of spodumene in the September quarter, at the lower end of guidance.

Mining activity remains on a campaign basis and subject to market conditions while December quarter sales guidance has been lowered to 35-70,000t on the back of a further deterioration in demand.

Ord Minnett maintains a Sell rating and $0.25 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMS  RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $1.26

Morgans rates RMS as Add (1) -

The company continues to meet production and cost guidance while developing assets to increase future production. Production guidance for the December quarter is 45-50,000 ounces at an all-in sustainable cost of between $1325-1425/oz.

Morgans notes a strong track record of delivering to guidance and maintains a Hold rating. Target rises to $1.25 from $1.12.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If RMS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.81.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 6.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.81.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR  SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL

Copper

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Overnight Price: $5.83

Citi rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects Sandfire Resources to meet its FY20 guidance. The broker believes investors need to balance the modest mine life at DeGrussa with the timing of new projects.

There is upside to the broker's view if the copper price exceeds expectations. The company has softened the top end of guidance to 70-72,000t of copper and 38-40,000 ounces of gold. Neutral/High Risk rating. Target is reduced to $6.60 from $8.10.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.83 Difference: $0.77
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.58, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.40 cents and EPS of 77.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.0, implying annual growth of 15.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.80 cents and EPS of 100.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.0, implying annual growth of 30.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

URW  UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD

REITs

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Overnight Price: $11.30

Ord Minnett rates URW as Hold (3) -

The third quarter update revealed another period of robust tenant sales growth, Ord Minnett asserts. The company expects adjusted recurring earnings per share in 2019 will be at the upper end of the guidance range of EUR12.1-12.3.

The broker notes there was no update on disposals while retailers continue to outperform in the company's shopping centres. Hold rating and $12.60 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: $1.3
If URW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.04, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 86.61 cents and EPS of 88.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 88.21 cents and EPS of 91.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.9, implying annual growth of 2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGN  WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $1.93

Credit Suisse rates WGN as Outperform (1) -

Wagners is taking a conservative view of the market in south-east Queensland, which Credit Suisse welcomes. The company has raised $40m in equity and has noted continued delays with major projects.

Competition is also likely to hinder the utilisation of concrete plants, the broker notes. Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $2.05 from $2.40. No dividend is expected in FY20/21.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.12
If WGN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting downside of -15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of -10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of 19.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
BGA BEGA CHEESE $3.66 Morgans 3.60 3.88 -7.22%
UBS 5.10 5.60 -8.93%
CAR CARSALES.COM $15.51 Morgans 14.04 13.80 1.74%
CGC COSTA GROUP $2.66 Morgans 2.56 3.48 -26.44%
UBS N/A 5.20 -100.00%
COL COLES GROUP $14.80 Citi 14.70 13.90 5.76%
Credit Suisse 13.17 13.23 -0.45%
Macquarie 15.00 13.62 10.13%
Morgans 14.01 13.20 6.14%
Ord Minnett 12.50 12.00 4.17%
UBS 13.00 12.65 2.77%
FLN FREELANCER $0.76 UBS 0.79 0.88 -10.23%
JHX JAMES HARDIE $24.94 Morgan Stanley 28.00 25.00 12.00%
LOV LOVISA $13.26 Macquarie 14.50 13.50 7.41%
Morgan Stanley 11.40 9.00 26.67%
Morgans 14.12 13.66 3.37%
MWY MIDWAY $1.80 Morgans 1.88 3.16 -40.51%
PLS PILBARA MINERALS $0.31 Citi 0.35 0.40 -12.50%
Macquarie 0.32 0.60 -46.67%
RMS RAMELIUS RESOURCES $1.26 Morgans 1.25 1.12 11.61%
SFR SANDFIRE $5.83 Citi 6.60 8.10 -18.52%
WGN WAGNERS HOLDING $1.93 Credit Suisse 2.05 2.40 -14.58%
Summaries
360 LIFE360 Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.48
BGA BEGA CHEESE Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.66
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.66
BVS BRAVURA SOLUTIONS Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.93
CAR CARSALES.COM Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $15.51
CGC COSTA GROUP Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.66
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.66
CLQ CLEAN TEQ HOLDINGS No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.24
COL COLES GROUP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $14.80
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $14.80
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $14.80
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $14.80
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $14.80
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $14.80
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $14.80
ELO ELMO SOFTWARE Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.64
FLN FREELANCER Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS Overnight Price $0.76
FMG FORTESCUE Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.78
JHX JAMES HARDIE Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $24.94
KLL KALIUM LAKES Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.48
LOV LOVISA Buy - Citi Overnight Price $13.26
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $13.26
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $13.26
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $13.26
MAI MAINSTREAM GROUP HOLDINGS Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.52
MWY MIDWAY Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.80
PLS PILBARA MINERALS Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $0.31
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.31
Sell - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.31
RMS RAMELIUS RESOURCES Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.26
SFR SANDFIRE Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $5.83
URW UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $11.30
WGN WAGNERS HOLDING Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.93
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

14

3. Hold

13

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

4

Wednesday 30 October 2019

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