Australian Broker Call
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June 15, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 11:37 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| BOQ - | BANK OF QUEENSLAND | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
| CL1 - | CLASS | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| GMG - | GOODMAN GRP | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| NHF - | NIB HOLDINGS | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Credit Suisse |
AIZ AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $2.99
Credit Suisse rates AIZ as Underperform (5) -
The investor briefing focused on the structural advantages that have allowed the airline to perform through the cycle as well as sustainable returns. Credit Suisse found nothing materially new to change its investment view.
The broker believes a combination of high elasticity in demand and a competitive international environment will act as a constraint on the company's ability to fully absorb fuel headwinds.
Neutral maintained. Target is NZ$2.98.
Current Price is $2.99. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.34 cents and EPS of 32.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.34 cents and EPS of 27.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of -7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AIZ as Neutral (3) -
UBS believes Air New Zealand is currently caught between falling FY19 earnings because of higher fuel costs and the strong free cash flow that will be generated from FY20 as its fleet modernisation program ends.
The cash flow benefits of lower gearing and higher distributions are starting to creep into investor timeframes, the broker observes. FY18 guidance was reaffirmed at the investor briefing and pre-tax profit is expected to exceed the prior year.
UBS maintains a Neutral rating and NZ$3.05 target.
Current Price is $2.99. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.30 cents and EPS of 33.68 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.15 cents and EPS of 29.53 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of -7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $142.20
Credit Suisse rates BKL as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse points out that investors should be prepared for Blackmores to increase its investment in China. China is not just another export market as its vitamin and supplement industry is large, at US$20bn.
The broker lowers FY19-21 EBITDA estimates, now projecting flat sales margins at around 19%. Credit Suisse suspects that the gap in Blackmores' marketing expenditure in China versus rival Suisse has widened and the latter also benefits from its parent's Chinese infrastructure.
Neutral rating and $130 target retained.
Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $142.20 Difference: minus $12.2 (current price is over target).
If BKL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $130.00, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 330.00 cents and EPS of 414.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 410.7, implying annual growth of 19.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 318.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 360.00 cents and EPS of 456.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 470.0, implying annual growth of 14.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 366.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.15
Credit Suisse rates BOQ as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Credit Suisse believes the stock is now trading below fair value and represents a good entry point.
While acknowledging a challenging macro backdrop for the sector the broker calculates Bank of Queensland is currently sitting near the trough in valuation across most metrics.
The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is steady at $11.40.
Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $10.15 Difference: $1.25
If BOQ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.67, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 86.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.1, implying annual growth of -6.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.6, implying annual growth of -3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.10
Citi rates BXB as Neutral (3) -
Cost inflation has been explained and is now well understood by investors for the CHEP Americas business, suggest Citi analysts. The problem is, however, main input costs continue to rise.
Citi analysts also believe management's counter-inititiatives have mixed effectiveness only. An improving outlook for North American food and beverage retailers might provide salvation.
Citi analysts retain a cautious view. Neutral rating and $10.10 price target retained.
Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $9.10 Difference: $1
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.35, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.94 cents and EPS of 52.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.61 cents and EPS of 56.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.9, implying annual growth of 1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CL1 CLASS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $2.70
UBS rates CL1 as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
The company is reacting to increased competitive intensity by offering fee holidays to January 1 2019 for new accounts, which UBS estimates could add around four months to customer acquisition costs and impact FY19 EBITDA by -$2m.
That said, with improved valuation support and the possibility there may be a faster-than-expected transition to cloud-based SMSF accounting software the rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $2.95 from $2.85.
Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.25
If CL1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of 26.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.0. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.61
Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -
Earlier in the week, Citi analysts had published their so-called Bull Case scenario for Goodman Group's growth ambitions in the years ahead (see update 13 June 2018).
Post the Investor Day, the analysts note management's expressed ambition falls in-line with that scenario. The analysts suspect this might have come as a positive surprise to most of their peers, indicating market consensus predictions are probably due an upgrade.
Buy rating reiterated with Citi highlighting Goodman Group retains its position as most preferred inside the A-REITs sector. Target $9.66 (unchanged).
Target price is $9.66 Current Price is $9.61 Difference: $0.05
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.75, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 46.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.20 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates GMG as Hold (3) -
Management has reaffirmed FY18 guidance for earnings per share of 46.5c and an intention to maintain low gearing levels. The key takeaway from the investor briefing, in Deutsche Bank's view, was the buoyant state of the industrial property market, in particular in the US.
Themes include a push towards multi-storey warehouses and automation while there is significant capital flow into the sector. Hold rating and $8.80 target maintained.
Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $9.61 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.75, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -
Goodman's investor day revealed a need for proximity to urban areas by e-commerce and logistics providers is driving strong demand for prime assets. To that end, Goodman will not be looking to acquire high-priced sites but will continue with its own development pipeline.
The REIT also noted that investors in its funds typically had real estate weightings of 7-15%, but that has now risen to 10-20%, with industrial preferred over retail. Despite trading above the broker's sum-of-the-parts valuation, an Outperform rating is retained on Goodman given industry tailwinds and sector-leading earnings growth.
Target rises to $9.30 from $8.79.
Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $9.61 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.75, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 46.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.10 cents and EPS of 50.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates GMG as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -
Ord Minnett believes the business is in great shape but the stock is expensive versus history and its peers. The broker is also somewhat concerned about the quality of earnings growth.
While the company, at its investor briefing, highlighted the exuberance of the industrial market, Ord Minnett suggests that not all industrial assets are equal and some in the marketplace appear not to be allowing for this fact.
The broker downgrades to Lighten from Hold. Target is raised to $8.40 from $8.10.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $9.61 Difference: minus $1.21 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.75, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.52
Credit Suisse rates IPL as Underperform (5) -
Credit Suisse notes 110,000 tonnes of volume in the Western Australian explosives market has changed hands under the company's new contract from Fortescue Metals ((FMG)), gained at rival Orica's ((ORI)) expense.
With the market likely to remain in oversupply until 2025, contract pricing appears likely to be re-set lower and Credit Suisse calculates this implies destruction to the profit pool of around -$100m per annum.
Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.37 from $3.39.
Target price is $3.37 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 20.75 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 21.04 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -
Incitec's new five-year ammonium nitrate and services contract with Fortescue Metals ((FMG)), won from Orica ((ORI)), goes about half way to mitigating the impact of lost BHP ((BHP)) and Roy Hill contracts, the broker estimates.
The broker further notes Incitec still has 3% to complete of its buyback, which it expects to complete by FY-end (Sept). Outperform and $3.91 target retained.
Target price is $3.91 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.39
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.10 cents and EPS of 20.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 22.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $16.98
Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -
Atlas Iron ((AGO)) has confirmed a notification from the government stating it does not have priority in developing South West Creek. Morgan Stanley points out that this implies that anyone acquiring the company for the sole purpose of access to South West Creek has now lost a motive.
Moreover, the entity that takes over Atlas Iron now needs to extract value through production of iron ore or stopping production in order to reduce supply and benefit existing production elsewhere.
If the takeover does not go ahead Mineral Resources will have less internal tonnage for its BOSS project which may cause a delay.
Target is $23.60. Overweight retained. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $23.60 Current Price is $16.98 Difference: $6.62
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.03, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.20 cents and EPS of 143.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.3, implying annual growth of 51.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 241.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.0, implying annual growth of 42.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.91
Credit Suisse rates MPL as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse lowers FY19 estimates for net profit by -0.3% on the assumption that premium rate increases will be less than 3%. In FY20 and the outer years the broker allows for a 2% premium rate increase and minor margin contraction.
Neutral rating maintained, as the broker believes the market does not offer enough near-term growth to support a more positive view. Target is reduced to $3.10 from $3.25.
Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.19
If MPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.94, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.56
Credit Suisse rates NHF as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
Credit Suisse lowers FY19 net profit estimates by -0.1% on the assumption that premium rate increases will be less than 3%. In FY20 and the outer years the broker allows for a 2% premium rate increase and minor margin contraction.
While the broker struggles to be positive on the stock, the share price has moved back to around fair value and the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target is reduced to $5.35 from $5.65.
Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $5.56 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.0, implying annual growth of 6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of 6.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $24.06
Ord Minnett rates SHL as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett is confident that the major parties will support Medicare and could announce promises to boost primary care funding as the next federal election draws closer. The broker notes Sonic Healthcare's domestic operations offer exposure to the current positive conditions and potential for a boost to GPs.
However, the broker believes these positives are largely offset by the cuts being faced by the company's large US and German operations. US and German funding reforms are expected to reduced operating earnings (EBITDA) by -2% in FY19. Hold rating and $24 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $24.06 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $24.97, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 114.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.4, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 84.00 cents and EPS of 119.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.7, implying annual growth of 6.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.57
Ord Minnett rates TAH as Lighten (4) -
Point of consumption taxes have been announced across key states in Australia. As the rates are considered to be low for NSW and Victoria, Ord Minnett believes the impact on bookmaker growth will be softer than anticipated.
Hence, while the implementation of the tax is favourable for Tabcorp, its higher exposure to retail and tote versus the high-growth online and sports betting channels remains a key negative for growth prospects, in the broker's view. Lighten rating and $4.20 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 32.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AIZ | AIR NEW ZEALAND | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.99 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.99 | ||
| BKL | BLACKMORES | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $142.20 |
| BOQ | BANK OF QUEENSLAND | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $10.15 |
| BXB | BRAMBLES | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $9.10 |
| CL1 | CLASS | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.70 |
| GMG | GOODMAN GRP | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $9.61 |
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $9.61 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.61 | ||
| Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $9.61 | ||
| IPL | INCITEC PIVOT | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.52 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.52 | ||
| MIN | MINERAL RESOURCES | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $16.98 |
| MPL | MEDIBANK PRIVATE | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.91 |
| NHF | NIB HOLDINGS | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.56 |
| SHL | SONIC HEALTHCARE | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $24.06 |
| TAH | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.57 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 6 |
| 3. Hold | 7 |
| 4. Reduce | 2 |
| 5. Sell | 2 |
Friday 15 June 2018
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