Weekly Reports | Aug 15 2023
The situation in Niger is keeping uranium market participants on the sidelines, in a market already quiet during summer holidays.
-Situation in Niger remains fluid
-EU utilities impacted the most
-Uranium market participants watch from the sidelines
By Greg Peel
Uranium market participants had hoped for some clarity last week on the situation in Niger following the meeting of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on August 10. West Africa leaders met to discuss last month’s coup in Niger, after the nation’s junta ignored an August 2 deadline set by the region’s economic bloc to return power to Niger’s civilian ruler.
Sellers in the spot uranium market have responded by remaining patiently on the sidelines, industry consultant TradeTech reports, to assess the potential for events in Niger to impact the near-term market.
ECOWAS, which has already imposed severe economic sanctions on Niger, has indicated that it may take military action and has begun preparation of troops.
As a result, only one transaction was reported in the spot market last week, for 100,000lbs U3O8, at US$57.00/lb. TradeTech’s weekly spot price indicator thus settled at that price, up US20c from the week before.
Term Markets
The events unfolding in Niger have introduced yet another element of uncertainty into the term uranium market, which has been beleaguered by questions around security of supply since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
While Niger accounts for only about 5% of world uranium mining output, it is the European Union that will be disproportionately affected if uranium deliveries are disrupted, TradeTech notes. About 25% of that production goes to European utilities.
Three French companies operating in Niger have indicated they are monitoring the situation closely, but have not yet encountered operational difficulties or security issues.
In a statement last week, the Global Atomic President and CEO stated, “While the situation in Niger remains fluid, the country remains relatively calm. Importantly, our people remain safe and normal business is being conducted at our offices and development of the Dasa [uranium] Project continues”.
Otherwise, several US and non-US utilities are already in off-market discussions with potential suppliers, TradeTech reports. Additionally, a considerable number have expressed their intention to enter the term markets in September or October, after the end of the northern summer holidays.
TradeTech’s term price indicators remain at US$57.25/lb (mid-term) and US$57.75/lb (long).
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGE | 0.0400 |  0.00% | $0.08 | $0.03 | ||||
| BKY | 02/01/2008 | 0.3900 | 0.00% | $0.80 | $0.25 | |||
| BMN | 02/01/2008 | 1.7900 | 0.00% | $2.49 | $1.19 | $3.200 |  78.8% | |
| BOE | 3.3600 | 0.00% | $3.47 | $1.97 | $3.540 | 5.4% | ||
| DYL | 02/01/2008 | 0.8500 | 0.00% | $1.25 | $0.48 | $1.040 | 22.4% | |
| EL8 | 0.3800 | 0.00% | $0.64 | $0.27 | ||||
| ERA | 02/01/2008 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.30 | $0.03 | |||
| LOT | 0.2200 | 0.00% | $0.30 | $0.15 | $0.530 | 140.9% | ||
| NXG | 7.7500 | 0.00% | $7.89 | $0.00 | ||||
| PDN | 02/01/2008 | 0.8100 | 0.00% | $0.96 | $0.52 | -24.2 | $1.080 | 33.3% |
| PEN | 02/01/2008 | 0.1100 | 0.00% | $0.20 | $0.09 | $0.310 | 181.8% | |
| SLX | 02/01/2008 | 3.2500 | 0.00% | $5.32 | $2.56 | $5.800 | 78.5% |
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