Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jan 31, 2023

This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

29M   AUB   AUT   C79   CDA   COE (2)   CRN (2)   DRE   IAG   KGN (2)   OFX   QBE   RED   SDF   SDV   SFR (2)   SUN   TLS   TPG  

29M    29METALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $2.04

Canaccord Genuity rates ((29M)) as Sell (5) –

29Metals's December-quarter copper production missed Canaccord Genuity's forecast by -11% but zinc production outpaced the broker by 15%. 

All-in-sustaining costs rose sharply. Cash missed the broker's forecasts and the company closed the quarter in a net debt position of -$32m, notes Canaccord.

Overall, the result was within or just outside of guidance, observes the broker. Sell rating retained. Target price falls to $1.60 from $1.70.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting downside of -15.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 68.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -19.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUB    AUB GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $23.76

Goldman Sachs rates ((AUB)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of the insurance brokers.

The broker adopts a positive stance on the sector with macro tailwinds.

Revenues are 60-70% commission based and are forecast to drive revenue growth (higher insurance costs driving a robust backdrop for broker); defensive business models and industry consolidation via earnings positive acquisitions of smaller brokers at appealing valuations.

The broker's forecasts for FY23 are positioned at the middle of management guidance.

AUB Group is the preferred exposure over Steadfast Group ((SDF)) with the company benefiting from more organic growth as well as offering a cheaper valuation.

A Buy rating and $27.80 target price.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $27.80 Current Price is $23.76 Difference: $4.04
If AUB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.16, suggesting upside of 11.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 72.10 cents and EPS of 111.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.5, implying annual growth of 6.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 86.30 cents and EPS of 132.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.0, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUT    AUTECO MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.06

Shaw and Partners rates ((AUT)) as Buy (1) –

Auteco Minerals has published assay results from the Tyson Vein system at Pickle Crow and has intercepted a new zone of mineralisation.

Shaw and Partners says this augurs well for a big resource upgrade this half, noting Pickle Crow is one of the highest-grade gold exploration projects on the ASX.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to 14c from 21c to reflect lower peer multiples following the 2022 sell off in emerging gold companies.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.083
If AUT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 146% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 57.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.25.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

C79    CHRYSOS CORP. LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $3.87

Shaw and Partners rates ((C79)) as Buy (1) –

Chrysos has announced its December-quarter cash flow and trading update.

Shaw and Partners highlights three points: Lower cash costs and higher cash receipts reduced cash burn; utilisation is trending ahead of guidance meaning the company should hit prospectus forecasts; and the project is on track and management retains expectations of hitting 21 deployments by June 30.

Buy recommendation and $5.40 price target retained.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $3.87 Difference: $1.53
If C79 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 96.75.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 203.68.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CDA    CODAN LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $5.29

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CDA)) as Hold (3) –

Codan's December-half trading update met October AGM targets, outpacing Canaccord Genuity by 22% at the net profit after tax level (which still fell -39% on the June half).

The broker expects strength in the gold price should support the outlook for metal detection product demand but the timing of the turnaround is uncertain.

On the upside, Communications revenue and margins strengthened in the half and the segment now accounts for 60% of group profit before tax, observes the broker.

EPS estimates rise 8% for FY23 and 7% for FY24. Hold rating retained. Target price rises to $5.64 from $4.45.

This report was published on January 24, 2023.

Target price is $5.64 Current Price is $5.29 Difference: $0.35
If CDA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.69.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.60.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.18

Bell Potter rates ((COE)) as Buy (1) –

Cooper Energy suffered a weaker second quarter, with unplanned outages at the company's Orbost processing plant and planned maintenance at Otways weighing on performance. Bell Potter notes the company reported production of 0.83m barrels equivalent and sales revenue of $45.8m. 

Despite the result, full year guidance is maintained. The company did warn of an expected delay in its final investment decision on the Otways expansion development given uncertainty around the Federal Government's proposed gas market code of conduct. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.22 from $0.29.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.035
If COE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 44.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.40 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of 21.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((COE)) as Overweight (2) –

Cooper Energy's second quarter production result was largely in line with Jarden's expectations, with revenue beating by 6%. It is worth noting Jarden remains below Cooper Energy's guidance range.

The broker feels the market may be waiting for signs of sustained improvement from the Orbost processing plant before re-rating on the stock, and notes improving both Orbost performance and market sentiment is a top priority for the company's incoming CEO. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.24 from $0.26.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.055
If COE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 44.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 37.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of 21.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal – Overnight Price: $2.00

Bell Potter rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter observes a soft end to the year for Coronado Global Resources. The broker anticipates a stronger 2023 as benefits from upgrades and optimisation at Curragh emerge. 

The weather remains an unknown factor according to the broker, with extreme wet weather continuing into January. Bell Potter expects Coronado Global Resources will provide 2023 guidance with its 2022 results in late February. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.20 from $2.50.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.2
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 13.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 53.80 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 26.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 30.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 57.27 cents and EPS of 47.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 28.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of -20.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 17.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

The travails of wet weather impacted on coal production for Coronado Global Resources with a miss on the December quarter production and sales according to Goldman Sachs.

FY22 production of 16Mt, down -9% on the previous year was below both the broker forecast of 16.2Mt and guidance. Costs were below guidance but above expectations.

Looking ahead, higher metallurgical coal prices are forecast with China re-opening and the impact on production for all operators in the Bowen Basin due to wet weather.

Goldman Sachs adjusts earnings forecasts by -10% for FY22 off the back of the December trading update but raises FY23 earnings by 100%.

A Buy rating is maintained and the target raised to $2.45 from $2.25.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.45
If CRN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 13.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 46.16 cents and EPS of 67.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 23.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 30.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 53.38 cents and EPS of 60.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 26.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of -20.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 17.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRE    DREADNOUGHT RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.11

Bell Potter rates ((DRE)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter notes essay results released by Dreadnought Resources "show promise", with 23 holes returning signs of rare earth mineralisation. According to the broker early results point to potential for an enriched near-surface zone, but it is too early to estimate the scale of the opportunity. 

Drilling will recommence in February and March, with the company intending to release an updated mineral resource estimate by the end of the year. Dreadnought Resources is targeting a resource between 30m and 50m tonnes. 

The Buy rating and target price of $0.19 are retained.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.08
If DRE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.57.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.83.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $4.89

Goldman Sachs rates ((IAG)) as Initiate with a Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of Insurance Australia Group with a Neutral rating and $5.29 target.

The analyst prefers Suncorp Group ((SUN)) over Insurance Australia Group based on the relatively more attractive valuation.

Of note pressure on margins is likely to persist into the 2H23 and maybe into FY24 from ongoing catastrophe reinsurance costs and peril allowances.

The positive interest rate cycle and higher insurance rate increases across the commercial and business sectors could be clouding some of the cost margin pressures.

Neutral rating and $5.29 target.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $5.29 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.4
If IAG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 6.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 125.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.2, implying annual growth of 14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KGN    KOGAN.COM LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $4.61

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KGN)) as Hold (3) –

Kogan.com's December-half trading update appears to have mised Canaccord Genuity's expectations, with profits and headline growth continuing to contract.

But the broker observes the company has prioritised its balance sheet, emerging with a net cash position of $74m at year end, to become one of the better capitalised ASX-listed e-commerce stocks.

The company did manage to clear about 40% of its inventory, finishing with $98m from $160m (and compared to a group high of $300m at the end of June).

Management guided to an improvement in gross profit margins (boosted by the inventory clearance), which it expects will boost leverage once revenue stabilises.

Hold recommendation and $4 target price retained given the recent share-price rally, the broker awaiting a consistent shift in revenue growth given the macro challenges.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting upside of 33.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 179.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 39.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 104.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.2, implying annual growth of 1.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 18.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((KGN)) as Underweight (4) –

Kogan.com has reported a weak first half according to Jarden, with gross sales declining -32.5% year-on-year and gross profits declining -42.0% year-on-year. 

More positively, the broker notes inventory unwind is on track. The company reported the majority of excess stock has been cleared and inventory has been reduced to $98.3m from $132.0m. However, given the impact of ongoing discounting to clear stock on gross profit margins, the broker reduces its FY23 earnings estimate -31%. 

The Underweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.42 from $3.37.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $3.42 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: minus $1.19 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting upside of 33.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 80.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 179.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 39.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 164.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.2, implying annual growth of 1.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 18.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OFX    OFX GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.97

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OFX)) as Buy (1) –

OFX Group's December-quarter result broadly met Canaccord Genuity's forecasts, and management reiterated net operating income guidance, although the broker says consumer ATVs appears to be tracking below March-half guidance, dragging on group revenue.

Management did not disclose a cash balance but the broker says other cash metrics, combined with a roomy debt facility should support the company's M&A ambitions in 2023.

Buy rating and $3.35 target price retained.

This report was published on January 24, 2023.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $1.38
If OFX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.07.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.07.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $13.67

Goldman Sachs rates ((QBE)) as Initiate with a Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs initiates a Buy rating and $16.67 for QBE Insurance.

The broker highlights QBE Insurance is the preferred stock in the general insurance sector.

QBE Insurance has a highest exposure to the commercial property and motor sectors and is well positioned to benefit from the higher premium rates in those segments of the market.

Management have highlighted their target to place pricing above inflation pressures from higher reinsurance costs.

Buy rating on an appealing valuation and $16.67 target.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $16.67 Current Price is $13.67 Difference: $3
If QBE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.01, suggesting upside of 16.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 36.07 cents and EPS of 64.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 73.57 cents and EPS of 154.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.8, implying annual growth of 125.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 101.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RED    RED 5 LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.22

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RED)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Red 5's December-quarter 36% rise in production largely met Canaccord Genuity's forecasts and the broker welcomes the shift to commercial production.

All-in-sustaining costs were not included in the report. The company also amended its debt-repayment profile, reporting $15m was due in the March quarter but revealing little else. The broker observes this is sharply more aggressive than was suggested in the Annual Report.

June-half guidance was retained and the company entered into more forward contracts at an average price of A$2780/oz.

Canaccord Genuity believes the June half is a critical period for the company, which is expected to be positive free cash-flow (December-quarter FCF was -$68m).

Rating cut to Hold from Speculative Buy, the broker awaiting more visibility on the balance sheet. Target price eases to 35c from 36c.

This report was published on January 24, 2023.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.13
If RED meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDF    STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $5.28

Goldman Sachs rates ((SDF)) as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of the general insurance brokers.

The broker adopts a positive stance on the sector with macro tailwinds.

Revenues are 60-70% commission based and are forecast to drive revenue growth (higher insurance costs underpinning a robust backdrop for broker); defensive business models and industry consolidation via earnings positive acquisitions of smaller brokers at appealing valuations.

Goldman Sachs' forecasts for FY23 are positioned at the middle of management guidance.

Steadfast Group is considered to be relatively fully priced versus AUB Group ((AUB)) at current levels, with Steadfast Group more reliant on accretive acquisitions to grow earnings.

A Neutral rating and $5.64 target price.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $5.64 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $0.36
If SDF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.03, suggesting upside of 14.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 19.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 25.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 8.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDV    SCIDEV LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.42

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SDV)) as Buy (1) –

SciDev's December-quarter revenue met Canaccord Genuity's forecasts; cash flow sharply outpaced; and earnings (EBITDA) fell a tad shy.

The broker appreciates the company's recent contract wins; the company's six-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 87%; and the pleasing consequences of this on the company's cash and margin performance.

Canaccord Genuity believes the company can still benefit from strong ESG tailwinds around water and PFAs and appreciates the size of the prospect.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 54c from $52c.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.115
If SDV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.36.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.71.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $6.38

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SFR)) as Hold (3) –

Sandfire Resources's December-quarter copper production outpaced Canaccord Genuity's forecast, falling -29% on the June quarter due to the expected closure of DeGrussa. 

Net debt came in at -US$378m, well above the broker's forecasts of US$237m, due to a timing issue explains the broker.

Matsa production fell but it appears the mine is ready to kick in where DeGrussa left off. Management guides to a sharp recovery in the June half enabling the company to hit the lower end of guidance, and the broker observes costs at the mine are falling. Management did not hazard guidance on the DeGrussa mine.

Canaccord Genuity observes a discovery in the San Pedro Zone could prove a near-term boon for Matsa.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $6.75 from $6.50.

This report was published on January 24, 2023.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.38 Difference: $0.37
If SFR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting downside of -9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((SFR)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs was disappointed with the December quarter trading update from Sandfire Resources, noting ongoing problems with the Magdalena deposit and the flow on challenges at Matsa, Spain, from higher costs and lower copper production.

Conversely, the Botswana, Motheo project remains on track for first copper production in the upcoming June quarter.

The broker's earnings forecasts are adjusted by -95% and -4% for FY23 and FY24 due to the Matsa problems, alongside an inventory rundown at Degrussa.

A Sell rating is retained with a stretched valuation, in spite of the broker's higher than consensus copper price forecasts.

 The target is lowered to $4.30 from $4.50.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $6.38 Difference: minus $2.08 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting downside of -9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 58.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $12.56

Goldman Sachs rates ((SUN)) as Initiate with a Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of Suncorp Group with a Buy rating and a $13.88 target price.

The analyst is positive of the company with the management focus on pricing and margins expected to alleviate some of the pressures from rising perils allowances and reinsurance costs. 

Rising insurance rates are forecast to boost earnings over the 2H23 and into the 1H24. Buy rating and $13.88 target.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $13.88 Current Price is $12.56 Difference: $1.32
If SUN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.62, suggesting upside of 8.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 78.00 cents and EPS of 101.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.4, implying annual growth of 53.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 105.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.1, implying annual growth of 16.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS    TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.11

Goldman Sachs rates ((TLS)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs assesses the recent price increase of $5/month with accompanying changes to the plans as well as the removal of the "Infinite unlimited data sim-only plan" for Vodafone ((TPG)).

The broker highlights the changes are on the back of similar adjustments that were made by both Telstra Group and Optus in July 2022 and in line with expectations.

A Neutral rating and $4.40 target price are retained.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.29
If TLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 9.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 16.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 11.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPG    TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.94

Goldman Sachs rates ((TPG)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs assesses the recent price increase of $5/month with accompanying changes to the plans as well as the removal of the "Infinite unlimited data sim-only plan" for Vodafone ((TPG)).

The broker highlights the changes are on the back of similar adjustments that were made by both Telstra Group and Optus in July 2022 and in line with expectations.

The Neutral rating and target price of $6.10 are retained.

This report was published on January 25, 2023.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $4.94 Difference: $1.16
If TPG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.09, suggesting upside of 25.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 281.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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