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Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 27, 2022

Daily Market Reports | Jul 27 2022

This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

29M   AKE   AVG   AX1 (2)   BKW   BPT   COE   CRN   DSK   FLT   GDC   ILU   IRE   LIC   MP1   NST (2)   OZL   PAN   SMP  

29M    29METALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $1.52

Canaccord Genuity rates ((29M)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Favourable working capital movements and production beats combined to generate 2Q cash flow for 29Metals that surprised Canaccord Genuity to the upside.

Copper production outperformed the broker’s expectation, zinc underperformed, while gold and silver production were in-line.

Management cut guidance for gold and silver production by -19% and -9%, respectively, while -$2m in higher capex was due to additional costs for the Golden Grove paste plant.

The analyst explains these negatives were partially offset by lower treatment charges (TC) and refining charges (RC). The Speculative Buy rating is maintained, while the target falls to $1.80 from $1.90.

This report was published on July 21, 2022.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.28
If 29M meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 38.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AKE    ALLKEM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $10.45

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AKE)) as Buy (1) –

Second quarter production for Olaroz was in-line with Canaccord Genuity's expectation, while costs were higher at Mt Cattlin due to lower production and higher waste stripping.

However, these costs are expected to be covered by strong spodumene concentrate pricing.

The analyst highlights pricing is near all-time highs, sees upside risk versus consensus and retains a Buy rating. The target falls to $17.10 from $18.

In terms of growth projects, the broker notes Olaroz II remains on schedule for first production in the December quarter, while commissioning for the Naraha Lithium Hydroxide Plant in Japan is now pushed back to the September quarter.

This report was published on July 21, 2022.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $10.45 Difference: $6.65
If AKE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.51, suggesting upside of 38.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.1, implying annual growth of 75.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVG    AUSTRALIAN VINTAGE LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $0.64

Moelis rates ((AVG)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis has initiated coverage of Australian Vintage with a Buy rating and 86c price target. This, the broker highlights, is one of Australia’s largest producers of wine, with circa 60% of revenues stemming from international markets.

Equally important, the broker points out Australian Vintage has always been a low margin wine producer without major leading brands, with some 40% of FY19 revenues coming from bulk wine sales.

CEO Craig Garvin, since 2019, has changed the corporate strategy and currently four pillar brands are being marketed: McGuigan, Tempus Two, Nepenthe, and BVWC.

Moelis finds the valuation "undemanding" and expresses confidence in management executing on its plans, with a greater return on capital and increased earnings poised to follow.

This report was published on July 26, 2022.

Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.22
If AVG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.21.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.20 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.44.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AX1    ACCENT GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $1.34

Jarden rates ((AX1)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden found Accent Group's trading update -9% below market consensus, with New Zealand carrying most of the blame. The broker notes how sales remained subdued in May and June while the company pursued a "full price" strategy (i.e. no discounting).

While consensus forecasts remain too high for Australia's retailers, in Jarden's view, the broker does anticipate Accent Group will prove relatively resilient even as pressure on household spending will show up.

With supply chains normalising, Jarden finds at least one of its key worries is being removed. Overweight rating retained.

Target price loses -10c to $2. Jarden maintains the share price looks undervalued.

This report was published on July 26, 2022.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.66
If AX1 meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.41, suggesting upside of 4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of -50.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.90 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of 60.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((AX1)) as Overweight (1) –

Accent Group's trading update missed market consensus by some -5%, on Wilsons assessment, and the broker's forecast by -7%.

The broker believes the miss is due to management unwilling to sacrifice the gross margin which translated into less promotions and less discounting.

Wilsons defends the strategy, advocating it is necessary for Accent Group to stay in a strong as possible price point position.

Earnings estimates have been reduced, but the Overweight rating remains in place. Target drops to $2 from $2.20.

This report was published on July 25, 2022.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.66
If AX1 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.41, suggesting upside of 4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of -50.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 12.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of 60.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKW    BRICKWORKS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $20.10

Jarden rates ((BKW)) as Neutral (3) –

Brickworks has negotiated a JV with Goodman Group ((GMG)) with the 50.1% owned property trust buying and leasing back 15 operational sites of Brickworks.

Net proceeds of $193m from the sale of property into the new trust will be used to reduce debt.

Jarden likes the flexibility of the new trust structure, arguing it could be used as a funding vehicle for future new plants as well as to develop underutilised sites in the Brickworks portfolio.

Separately, management's expectations for building products are below forecasts (-10%) which leads to reductions in estimates. Neutral rating retained. Price target lifts to $23.20 from $22.70.

This report was published on July 25, 2022.

Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $20.10 Difference: $3.1
If BKW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.18, suggesting upside of 25.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 65.30 cents and EPS of 450.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 367.4, implying annual growth of 131.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 68.50 cents and EPS of 170.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.8, implying annual growth of -56.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.80

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BPT)) as Hold (3) –

Following 4Q production results, Canaccord Genuity increases its target price for Beach Energy to $1.91 from $1.72. The analyst comments the results showed strong oil and gas price realisation and improving production.

The increased target also allows for the current high oil price and the rolling-off of low price gas contracts, explains the analyst. \

The Hold rating is maintained on concerns around the production outlook, in particular for the Western Flank due to disappointing recent drill results.

This report was published on July 21, 2022.

Target price is $1.91 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.11
If BPT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 9.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 23.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 80.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.22

Canaccord Genuity rates ((COE)) as Buy (1) –

During the 4Q, Cooper Energy raised equity for the acquisition of the Orbost gas plant. Following results for the quarter, Canaccord Genuity lowers its target to $0.47 from $0.51 after incorporating the share issue and higher (inflation-driven) capex.

The acquisition makes financial and strategic sense to the analyst and allows Cooper Energy to dictate its own destiny. It's thought the company will now focus on increasing production rates during a time of high gas prices. The Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on July 21, 2022.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.25
If COE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 28.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 220.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal – Overnight Price: $1.43

Bell Potter rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

Wet weather at Curragh and geological conditions in the US were Bell Potter's key reasons for weakness in June quarter saleable production and sales for Coronado Global Resources. Unit costs were US$91/t, much higher than the analyst's US$74/t forecast.

Management at the coal producer now guides to 2022 unit costs of US$79-81/t, up from US$69-71/t, and saleable production is expected to be at the low end of the previously guided range of 18-19Mt.

While Bell Potter's target price falls to $1.95 from $2.15, strong free cash flow is estimated on current pricing assumptions, and improving productivity at Curragh should see coal output lift in the 2H. Buy.

This report was published on July 22, 2022.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.52
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 77.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 48.30 cents and EPS of 76.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 33.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 41.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 45.59 cents and EPS of 42.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 31.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.0, implying annual growth of -31.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 30.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DSK    DUSK GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $2.21

Shaw and Partners rates ((DSK)) as Buy (1) –

There was a lot to like about Dusk Group's FY22 trading update according to Shaw and Partners.

Notably the company was able to achieve results above sales and earnings forecasts, quite an achievement given the high covid earnings results of FY21, points out Shaw.

The broker assesses the growth outlook as positive for Dusk Group's omni-channel approach with a strong balance sheet, new store openings in a fragmented market, and good inventory management on top.

Further guidance for FY23 will be provided at the Sept 2nd results and Nov AGM. A Buy rating is maintained with an attractive valuation relative to peers, suggests the broker.

The price target is retained at $3.00.

This report was published on July 21, 2022.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.79
If DSK meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 29.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.49.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 24.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.88.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $16.63

JP Morgan rates ((FLT)) as Underweight (5) –

After Flight Centre Travel upgraded its FY22 earnings (EBITDA) guidance (smaller loss) by around 12%, JP Morgan raises its target price to $16.50 from $16.00.

The broker attributes the upgrade to a strong total transaction value (TTV) recovery courtesy of an uplift in demand and increased airline ticket prices. The Corporate and Leisure segments are considered to have recovered strongly.

The Underweight rating is maintained due to the analyst's concerns around the impact of supply constraints on recovery momentum. Additionally, there are thought to be operating risks as the Leisure business changes distribution channels.

This report was published on July 26, 2022.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $16.63 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.16, suggesting upside of 3.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 125.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -128.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDC    GLOBAL DATA CENTRE GROUP

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $1.60

Shaw and Partners rates ((GDC)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners highlights Global Data Centre provided an updated independent Net Asset Value (NAV) calculation on a range of assets, rising 22% to $2.37 per share or $183.5m versus the market cap of $113m.

The broker considers the valuation to be conservative for the listed AirTrunk business in particular and will be looking for more details at the August results.

Shaw and Partners assesses the company is very undervalued with good structural tailwinds, a great management team, alongside some certainty in earnings and valuation.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.46 from $3.22.

This report was published on July 21, 2022.

Target price is $3.46 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $1.86
If GDC meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 228.57.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 123.08.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU    ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $9.72

Shaw and Partners rates ((ILU)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners considers the June quarter update for Iluka Resources as "Ok" for production and guidance with the company benefiting from strong pricing.

Production costs are coming in above guidance, rising by $55m, highlights the analyst.

Shaw and Partners points out Iluka Resources will continue to benefit from the macro tailwinds of elevated prices and the strategic restructuring to de-merge Sierra rutile as well as the move into rare earths.

Buy rating and the price target is retained at $14.

This report was published on July 21, 2022.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $4.28
If ILU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.67, suggesting upside of 20.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 102.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.5, implying annual growth of 53.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 95.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.1, implying annual growth of -21.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IRE    IRESS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $10.98

JP Morgan rates ((IRE)) as Overweight (1) –

JP Morgan assesses a soft 1H trading update by Iress, despite FY22 guidance being reaffirmed, and reduces its target price to $12.50 from $12.90, while the Overweight rating is maintained.

The analyst likes the potential upside from improved execution on the company's 2025 targets, and feels the company's defensive technology exposure is appropriate to the current economic backdrop.

Reaffirmed guidance suggests to the broker a large 2H skew, with the likelihood the bottom end of the $177-183m range will be attained.

This report was published on July 26, 2022.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.98 Difference: $1.52
If IRE meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.71, suggesting upside of 6.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.3, implying annual growth of 3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 17.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LIC    LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $15.72

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LIC)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity attributes a rally in the Lifestyle Communities share price (following a trading update) to new settlement guidance provided for FY23-25 for both new home settlements and resale settlements of 600 per year.

The analyst had previously assumed new home settlements of 425 per year. In addition, management confirmed 401 new settlements for FY22.

While the broker prefers to keep its forecasts conservative due to the economic backdrop and its potential impact on housing, the meeting of FY23-25 targets would create material value upside. The target rises to $17.25 from $17.20. Buy.

This report was published on July 21, 2022.

Target price is $17.25 Current Price is $15.72 Difference: $1.53
If LIC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 58.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.01.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 68.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.92.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MP1    MEGAPORT LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $8.50

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MP1)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Canaccord Genuity believes the first positive quarterly earnings (EBITDA) figure recorded by Megaport in the 4Q was a surprise to the market and added to positivity from a record quarter for new recurring revenue.

The broker's higher forecast earnings are offset by a higher assumed discount rate and the $11.00 target price is unchanged, though the rating rises to Buy from Hold on valuation.

Due to a relatively better split between sales channels for the month, the analyst feels 3Q sales efficiency issues have been resolved quicker than expected.

This report was published on July 21, 2022.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.50 Difference: $2.5
If MP1 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.11, suggesting upside of 42.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 34.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -24.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 81.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST    NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $7.28

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NST)) as Buy (1) –

Sales and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for Northern Star Resources in the June quarter were broadly in-line with forecasts by Canaccord Genuity.

FY23 growth capex guidance was increased by -$200m to a -$650m total, driven primarily by fuel costs and increased material movements at the KCGM operations, explains the analyst.

The broker lowers its FY23 sales and production forecast to 1.63Moz at an AISC of $1,686/oz from 1.7Moz at $1,737/oz, and lowers its target price to $12.15 from $12.25. The Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on July 21, 2022.

Target price is $12.15 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $4.87
If NST meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.20, suggesting upside of 40.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of -79.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.2, implying annual growth of 47.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates ((NST)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners highlights Northern Star Resources' 4Q22 and FY22 gold sales and costs came in-line with guidance in a tough year for all gold miners from inflationary pressures, weather and covid impacts.

The guidance for FY23 is noted as being in-line with the market consensus and the balance sheet remains strong with net cash and bullion of $628m at June end.

The Buy rating and $12.80 target price are maintained with any improvements in the macro backdrop likely to result in a share price upgrade, suggests the broker.

This report was published on July 26, 2022.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $5.52
If NST meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.20, suggesting upside of 40.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 23.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of -79.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 47.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.2, implying annual growth of 47.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL    OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $17.19

JP Morgan rates ((OZL)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

JP Morgan downgrades its rating for OZ Minerals to Neutral from Overweight and reduces its target to $17 from $21. Forecast earnings for 2022 and 2023 fall by -15% and -33% after factoring-in higher costs and lower production at Carrapateena.

The broker is wary of recently-revised 2022 cost guidance, particularly at Carrapateena, due to rising cost pressures through the 1H.

The analyst has a reduced conviction on a 2022 copper price recovery due to rising recession risk and, in addition, spot copper has fallen. This fall is thought to pressure medium term cash flows and execution of the company's growth pipeline.

This report was published on July 26, 2022.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $17.19 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $19.42, suggesting upside of 13.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.9, implying annual growth of -33.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.6, implying annual growth of 10.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PAN    PANORAMIC RESOURCES LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $0.18

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PAN)) as Buy (1) –

Panoramic Resources' guidance for FY23 is being summarised as: lower production and higher costs. Canaccord Genuity explains labour shortages, cost pressures and covid interruptions have been plaguing the company's plans.

Management at the company anticipates quarter-on-quarter improvements over FY23, the broker adds, as development progresses and new mining fronts at Savannah North are opened up.

Canaccord Genuity has made a number of changes to its modeling, resulting in large reductions to previous forecasts. Target drops to 29c from 33c. Buy.

This report was published on July 25, 2022.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.11
If PAN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMP    SMARTPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.65

Shaw and Partners rates ((SMP)) as Buy (1) –

SmartPay's 1Q23 results impressed Shaw and Partners with better than expected results across the board.

Australia traded 17% ahead of the broker's expectations and NZ continued to exhibit improvements to pre-covid levels.

Shaw and Partners assesses SmartPay as offering value with growing revenues and customers, increasing revenue per terminal as well as potential for more business deals.

Earnings forecasts are raised on expectations of growing transation terminals and improved revenue per terminal.

The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $1.49 from $1.35.

This report was published on July 21, 2022.

Target price is $1.49 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.84
If SMP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.97.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.55 cents and EPS of 4.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.37.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

As part of emerging new trends overseas, The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition also includes providers of sponsored research. Readers should bear in mind, sponsored research, while not necessarily of lower quality, has the embedded complication that the company that is the subject of the research has paid for this research. Providers of sponsored research that can potentially be included in this Report are Breakaway Research, Edison Investment Research, Independent Investment Research, NDF Research, Pitt Street Research, and TMT Analytics.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

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CHARTS

29M AVG AX1 BKW BPT COE CRN DSK FLT GDC GMG ILU IRE LIC MP1 NST OZL PAN SMP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M - 29METALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AVG - AUSTRALIAN VINTAGE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AX1 - ACCENT GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BKW - BRICKWORKS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT - BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: COE - COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CRN - CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DSK - DUSK GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FLT - FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GDC - GLOBAL DATA CENTRE GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GMG - GOODMAN GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ILU - ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IRE - IRESS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LIC - LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MP1 - MEGAPORT LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NST - NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: OZL - OZ MINERALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PAN - PANORAMIC RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SMP - SMARTPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED