Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 30, 2021

Daily Market Reports | Sep 30 2021

FNArena will be updating Special Editions of this Report in September dedicated to the August Reporting Season.

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AIS   APE   ASG   AVH   BGA   BRI   BWX   CSS   CSX   DDH   FLT   FWD   LME   LNK   MTO   MYX   PPE   PWR   QIP   WES   WHC  

LNK    LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments - Overnight Price: $4.33

Goldman Sachs rates ((LNK)) as Neutral (3) -

Link Administration Holdings' profit after tax for FY21 of $113.2m was a -6% miss on Goldman Sachs' forecast, resulting in a final dividend of 5.5 cents per share, below the broker's expected 6.0 cents per share. 

Goldman Sachs notes group revenue in the second half was down -7% on the first half, but cash control was far stronger than expected and full-year expenses were down -4% on the previous year. 

With the company guiding to FY22 earnings before tax being largely flat on FY21, the broker has found guidance disappointing and a downgrade on previous commentary. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.69 from $5.06. 

This report was published on August 26, 2021.

Target price is $4.69 Current Price is $4.33 Difference: $0.36
If LNK meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 20.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.7, implying annual growth of 17.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTO    MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components - Overnight Price: $2.93

Moelis rates ((MTO)) as Buy (1) -

Motorcycle Holdings delivered an FY21 result at the top end of the guidance range. Underlying earnings of $44.5m were a 61% increase on the previous year, and profit after tax of $28.3m was an 86% increase. Moelis notes the company continues to take market share. 

Despite no guidance for FY22, Moelis notes the company indicated an expectation that current demand levels would continue in the short to medium term. The broker also highlighted covid lockdowns would impact on FY22's first half results. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.54 from $3.63.

This report was published on August 30, 2021.

Target price is $3.54 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.61
If MTO meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.40 cents and EPS of 28.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.14.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.10 cents and EPS of 28.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.35.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYX    MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences - Overnight Price: $0.28

Bell Potter rates ((MYX)) as Buy (1) -

Following FY21 results, to better reflect trading, Bell Potter determines that by excluding weaker US$ impacts, revenues in constant currency declined by a mere -3%. Gross profit margin across the group decreased by -100bps to 45%.

Management noted commercialisation opportunities for the recently launched Nextstellis. There is now 50% commercial coverage in place, of which 38% is unrestricted. The broker expects a realised selling price of US$90/woman/cycle, as per branded peers.

The analyst points out, the company remains comfortably inside debt covenants. The Buy rating is retained, with some significant wins for Nextstellis expected in the coming months. The price target eases to $0.52 from $0.56.

This report was published on August 30, 2021.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.24
If MYX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.31, suggesting upside of 9.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPE    PEOPLE INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services - Overnight Price: $3.81

Moelis rates ((PPE)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

People Infrastructure's FY21 underlying earnings of $38m were a 33% year-on-year increase, while earnings per share of 26 cents marked an increase of 13%.

Looking ahead, Moelis' FY22 underlying earnings forecast of $43m reflects impacts of current lockdowns, as well as a boost from acquisitions, with the Techforce and Vision Surveys acquisitions expected to be $7.8m accretive to underlying earnings in FY22.

The broker notes People Infrastructure had $25m net debt at June, and a $50-70m capacity for further acquisition. It is the broker's view that the company is positioned for organic and acquisitive growth over a number of years. 

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target price increases to $5.06 from $4.76. 

This report was published on August 30, 2021.

Target price is $5.06 Current Price is $3.81 Difference: $1.25
If PPE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.70.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.80 cents and EPS of 32.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.58.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PWR    PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Overnight Price: $3.03

Jarden rates ((PWR)) as Buy (1) -

The FY21 result was materially stronger than consensus estimates, with profit (PBT) 68% ahead of the prospectus forecast. This resulted from strong demand along with supply that is thought set to continue to suffer from ongoing supply chain difficulties into 2022.

The analyst assumes guidance is light-on should deliveries remain resilient through the first half of FY22 and notes gross profit per vehicle remains robust. It's also believed M&A opportunities will present.

The broker makes minor forecast changes and raises its target price to $4.32 from $4.17. The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 27, 2021. 

Target price is $4.32 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $1.29
If PWR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.90 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.02.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.10 cents and EPS of 26.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.61.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


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