Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 09, 2021

This story features ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABP

FNArena will be updating Special Editions of this Report in September dedicated to the August Reporting Season.

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ABP   ADA   AQR   AQZ   ARB   ARF   BEN   BHP (2)   BPT (4)   BRG   BSX   CAR   CBA   CL1 (3)   COE   CQE (3)   DHG (2)   DXS   EHL   EML   GDF   GMG   GPT (2)   IMD   JBH (3)   MFG (2)   MGR   MNY (2)   PPS (2)   QBE   RRL   SCP (2)   STO   SWM   TGR   UBI   VVA  

ABP    ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.59

Shaw and Partners rates ((ABP)) as Hold (3) –

Shaw and Partners re-initiates coverage of Abacus Property Group with a Buy rating and a target price of $3.55.

Shaw believes Abacus – a REIT with an investment portfolio focused primarily on the Self-Storage and Office sectors across Australia and NZ – represents a very attractive investment opportunity for investors seeking exposure to a sector in high demand.

The broker forecasts a 12-month total shareholder return (TSR) of circa 14% and hence given the combination of value upside, strong macro thematic tailwinds, and likely additional positive news flow.

This report was published on August 18, 2021.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If ABP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting downside of -10.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.60 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of -64.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.10 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ADA    ADACEL TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $1.27

Bell Potter rates ((ADA)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Driven by a better profit before tax (PBT) margin than forecast, which more than offset a modest miss in sales revenue, Adacel Technologies FY21 result was a beat against Bell Potter's forecasts.

Adacel announced plans to change the currency it reports in from AUD to USD, and provided FY22 guidance for PBT of US$5.7-6.0m.

Bell Potter's FY22 and FY23 PBT forecasts are little changed and the broker continues to forecast FY22 PBT of $7.9m which equates to US$5.8m at the current spot rate, hence within the guidance range. But due to a lower assumed tax rate in both periods, the broker has upgraded FY22 and FY23 earnings per share (EPS) forecasts by 13% and 8% respectively.

Bell Potter downgrades Adacel Technologies to Hold from Buy and the price target increase to $1.50 from $1.25.

This report was published on August 13, 2021.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.23
If ADA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.43.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.96.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQR    APN CONVENIENCE RETAIL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.62

Moelis rates ((AQR)) as No Rating (-1) –

Having reported FY21 results, APN Convenience Retail REIT is now undertaking a $50m equity raise to fund contracted acquisitions and prime it's balance sheet for additional growth.

The company has agreed to acquire two Queensland service stations, both of which are expected to settle in the first quarter of FY22. 

The company is also guiding to funds from operations of 22.9 cents per unit in FY22, which Moelis notes is a 4.6% increase on FY21.

Due to research restrictions Moelis is not rated and has not provided a target price. 

This report was published on August 18, 2021.

Current Price is $3.62. Target price not assessed.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQZ    ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $4.17

Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons describes Alliance Aviation Services' FY21 results as robust, with the company reporting 25% before tax profit growth, while underlying earnings were up 15% on the previous year.

The broker notes that with demand remaining strong the company should be able to facilitate rapid deployment of the newly acquired E190s through the next year, driving significant earnings growth over the next two years.

The Market Weight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.38 from $4.58.

This report was published on August 16, 2021.

Target price is $4.38 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.21
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.18, suggesting upside of 24.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.10 cents and EPS of 27.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 25.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 38.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of 31.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARB    ARB CORPORATION LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $49.28

Wilsons rates ((ARB)) as Overweight (1) –

ARB Corp's FY21 sales of $623m, up 34% on the previous period, were in line with guidance from July, and a final dividend of 39cps, was well above Wilsons' forecast of 31cps.

While ARB provided no explicit guidance, Wilson notes the company maintains a positive short-term outlook based on strong global sales since the end of the financial year, a strong customer order book, increasing new car sales in Australia, and customer opportunities already announced to the market.

Wilsons' initial analysis suggests sales mix is more skewed to exports and OEM, relative to the broker's assumptions. Wilson also notes gross margin -30bps below the broker's forecast is likely reflecting the different sales mix

The Overweight rating is unchanged: The target price of $48.40 is under review.

This report was published on August 17, 2021.

Target price is $48.40 Current Price is $49.28 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $46.93, suggesting downside of -2.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 115.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.9, implying annual growth of -0.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 144.0, implying annual growth of 3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF    ARENA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.24

Moelis rates ((ARF)) as Sell (5) –

Moelis expects further outperformance from Arena REIT in income growth over time and believes further cap rate compression is likely.

However, the broker notes that 160bp of cap rate compression would be needed to bridge the current gap between share price and net tangible assets (NTA), which grew by 10% half-on-half, to $2.53.

The company has guided to an FY22 dividend of 15.8cpu, implying growth of 7%, driven by a combination of rental growth and continued capital deployment. This implies a yield of 4.1%.

Moelis maintains the Sell rating and the target price increases to $3.27 from $3.23.

This report was published on August 12, 2021.

Target price is $3.27 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: minus $0.97 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting downside of -13.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of -60.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BEN    BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $9.89

Goldman Sachs rates ((BEN)) as Neutral (3) –

While Bendigo and Adelaide Bank's FY21 cash earnings were up 52% on the previous year, final results were a -0.7% miss on Goldman Sachs' forecast. The broker notes the small operating profit miss was largely due to higher-than-expected operating expenses. 

The company has also announced it will acquire Ferocia Pty Ltd, a Melbourne-based fintech, in order to accelerate digital strategy. The company is guiding the acquisition to increase expenses by 1.0-1.5% in FY22 and add little revenue. 

The broker updates earnings per share forecasts by 4.5%, -6.7% and -5.5% through to FY24.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $10.50 from $10.37. 

The report was published on August 16, 2021. 

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.89 Difference: $0.61
If BEN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.33, suggesting upside of 6.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 85.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.4, implying annual growth of -25.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 87.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.3, implying annual growth of -0.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $41.61

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as No Rating (-1) –

Following BHP Group's in-line FY21 result, the company's FY22 capex has increased from US$8.5bn to US$9bn, including a US$0.9bn increase in maintenance capital mainly on truck replacement in Chile.

Goldman Sachs notes the key focus from the FY21 result was on the announced 48/52 oil merger with Woodside, approval of the Jansen potash project, and listing unification which is expected to be completed first half 2022, before the oil merger.

Goldman Sachs' FY22 and FY23 earnings per share (EPS) estimates are down 2% and 3% on higher unit costs and the broker's net asset value (NAV) is down -6% to $45.7/sh on higher unit costs, sustaining capex and rehab provisions.

Goldman Sachs is not rated on BHP Group.

This report was published on August 18, 2021.

Current Price is $41.61. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $47.98, suggesting upside of 16.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 566.72 cents and EPS of 685.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 13.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 561.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 393.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 424.37 cents and EPS of 606.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 398.2, implying annual growth of -29.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 281.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Shaw and Partners rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners notes a lot of moving parts in the BHP investment thesis following the inline FY21 result, which included a dividend beat and the second-highest earnings ever.

Shaw questions whether, against the backdrop of a declining stimulus pulse in China, FY21 marks the peak. The broker also notes the petroleum demerger option is a big step in BHP’s slimming down process, with another $15-20bn of returns to shareholders potentially but a truncated earnings profile ex-petroleum.

While slowing global growth will invariable be a headwind for the sector and by extension BHP, Shaw believes there is now enough bottom-up news at hand to keep the focus on BHP a net positive.

Shaw and Partners retain a Buy rating and the target price of $56.00.

This report was published on August 18, 2021.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $41.61 Difference: $14.39
If BHP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $47.98, suggesting upside of 16.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 511.24 cents and EPS of 472.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 561.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 393.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 327.92 cents and EPS of 320.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 398.2, implying annual growth of -29.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 281.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.05

Bell Potter rates ((BPT)) as Buy (1) –

While Beach Energy delivered better than expected FY21 earnings, Bell Potter believes soft FY22 guidance signals a weaker year ahead.

Beach Energy's guidance of 21-23MMboe at an operating cost of $11.50- 12.50/boe, has contributed to Bell Potter's earnings per share (EPS) changes for FY22 -10%, FY23 -9%, and FY24 -9%.

Bell Potter expects the company to benefit from tightening east coast gas markets flowing through to higher pricing as GSAs are renegotiated. The broker also expects the company's strong balance sheet to support its growth ambitions, with a net cash position and available liquidity of $402m.

The broker retains a Buy rating and the target is lowered to $1.60 from $1.85.

This report was published on August 16, 2021.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.55
If BPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 38.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 21.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of -10.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Canaccord Genuity rates ((BPT)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity has lowered Beach Energy's FY22 earnings to $895m following the downgrading of the broker's production forecast to 23.0mnboe.

Canaccord's negative FY22 free cash flow (FCF) stands at -$194m which the broker notes the company can easily manage within its current liquidity.

The broker retains the view that post the 16.4mnbbl 2P downgrade in April the decline of the Western Flank looks terminal for valuation purposes.

Hold rating is unchanged and the price target is lowered to $1.35 from $1.51.

This report was published on August 17, 2021.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.3
If BPT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 38.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 21.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 14.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of -10.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((BPT)) as Neutral (3) –

Reported underlying earnings of $51m and profit after tax of $42m for Beach Energy were broadly in line with Goldman Sachs' forecasts, after adjusting for the Kupe arbitration one-off payment.

The broker notes production guidance was lower than expected given declines from both the Western Flank and BassGas projects. This has driven higher unit production cost guidance, while capital expenditure guidance of $900-1,100m was also higher than anticipated.

Goldman Sachs highlights exploration at Otway and acquisitions at Cooper Basin and Bass Basin as assisting in offsetting reserve downgrades at Western Flank.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.40 from $1.55.

This report was published on August 16, 2021.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.35
If BPT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 38.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 21.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of -10.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Buy (2) –

Jarden expects FY22 to be Beach Energy's trough production year, with a modest uptick in FY23 before ramping up to 35 mmboe in FY26, up 50% versus FY23, due to Waitsia, Victorian Otway and Trefoil contributions.

While Jarden sees value at the current share price, the broker acknowledges that with FY22 the peak capex year, investors may need to be patient and wait for execution on this year's growth programme.

Key risks to the brokers unchanged Overweight rating include the oil price, drilling success, facility reliability and gas customer demand, plus regulatory and ESG risks. Target is lowered to $1.50 from $1.55.

This report was published on August 16, 2021.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.45
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 38.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 21.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of -10.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $31.32

Wilsons rates ((BRG)) as Market Weight (3) –

Following Breville Group's reported FY21 earnings of $136.4m, up 20.5% year-on-year, and in line with guidance, Wilsons expects FY22 to be a “transitional” year for the group due to mixed progress of vaccination, lockdown, and opening up status across its operational geographies.

The broker notes while the group continues to take price increases where possible and highlights consumers have pent-up savings which will be deployed once economies re-open, spending may be redirected to services.

Wilsons suspects sales up 8.4% and earnings margins up 20bps to 12.4%, may point to the potential for positive price events and the higher sales proportion of Breville Local during the period.

The Market Weight rating is retained. Target price $32.00.

This report was published on August 17, 2021. 

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $31.32 Difference: $0.68
If BRG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.59, suggesting upside of 11.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 31.50 cents and EPS of 77.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.6, implying annual growth of 16.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.9, implying annual growth of 14.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSX    BLACKSTONE MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.48

Shaw and Partners rates ((BSX)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Blackstone Minerals, a battery metals company producing battery pre-cursor products for Asia's lithium-ion battery industry. 

The broker highlights Blackstone Minerals owns a 90% stake in the Ta Khoa nickel and copper project, and the company plans to restart and expand mining operations at the site. The company has also leveraged nickel resource ownership into relationships with some of South Korea's largest battery metal companies, including EcoPro. 

Blackstone Minerals expects a Final Investment Decision in the second half of 2022. 

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $1.90. 

This report was published on August 17, 2021.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $1.42
If BSX meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 296% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.82.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR    CARSALES.COM LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $25.88

Goldman Sachs rates ((CAR)) as No Rating (-1) –

Carsales.com's FY21 results were marginally ahead of provided guidance, and sales and profit after tax were both a 1% beat on Goldman Sachs' forecast.

In Australia, the company reported core domestic revenue growth of 8% and underlying earnings growth of 20%. Internationally, Trader Interactive saw 12% revenue growth in the second half.

Looking ahead, the company has announced the launch of Carsales Select and the introduction of dynamic pricing for private customers. 

The broker is not rated and no target price has been provided. 

This report was published on August 17, 2021. 

Current Price is $25.88. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $24.03, suggesting downside of -4.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.4, implying annual growth of 26.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.0, implying annual growth of 11.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $102.92

Bell Potter rates ((CBA)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Looking through the pandemic noise, Bell Potter notes Commonwealth Bank's FY21 had more positives, including strong core volume growth, overall net interest income, other income, asset quality, capital, funding, and liquidity; than negatives including net interest margin (NIM) and operating expenses, in the result.

The main changes to the broker's cash net profit (continuing) projections relate to higher non-interest income, mainly higher card fees, fee waivers, and removal of wealth contributions, plus a still lower LIE charge in FY22 and beyond. As a result, notes the broker, cash net profit estimates are now 2% higher in FY22, FY23, and FY24.

Bell Potter has also matched the statutory and cash dividend payout ratios of 75% in FY22-24.

Bell Potter has upgraded Commbank to Buy from Hold and the target price increases to $118 from $105.

This report was issued August 12, 2021

Target price is $118.00 Current Price is $102.92 Difference: $15.08
If CBA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $90.50, suggesting downside of -10.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 406.00 cents and EPS of 543.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 522.2, implying annual growth of -9.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 392.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 427.00 cents and EPS of 567.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 552.5, implying annual growth of 5.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 416.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CL1    CLASS LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $1.87

Jarden rates ((CL1)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Jarden has initiated coverage of Class Ltd with a Buy recommendation and a target price of $2.58.

Class is a cloud-based SMSF, portfolio, trust, and document management (DM) software provider which the broker believes is at a positive inflection point in its multi-year growth strategy.

The broker forecasts consistent above-market growth driven by the company's increasing share of the DM and trust segments, leading to a 9% revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to the broker's terminal year (FY31).

The broker expects the company to maintain SMSF market share while expanding share of DM and trust segments, and estimates 12.2% revenue and 11.5% earnings CAGR over FY21-23, driven by 37% revenue contribution CAGR across the DM and Trust businesses.

This report was issued August 13, 2021.

Target price is $2.58 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.71
If CL1 meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.22.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Shaw and Partners rates ((CL1)) as Buy (1) –

Following the surprise acquisition of Top Docs for $13m, Shaw and Partners have upgraded Class's FY22-23 revenue by 7-9% and earnings by 4-6%.

FY22 guidance includes revenue of $65m and earnings of $25m.

In the broker's view, Trust remains the key share price catalyst for Class and notes the company will be reviewing its capital management strategy in first half FY22, including its dividend payout policy.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.55 from $2.48.

The report was issued on August 18, 2021.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.68
If CL1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.22.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.16.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((CL1)) as Market Weight (3) –

Driven by continued strong contributions from recent M&A, Class ended FY21 with total revenue exceeding pre-disclosed guidance of 1%.

In the “core” business, Wilsons notes the muted, although not unexpected, SMSF account growth, while average revenue per user (ARPU) grew 2% on the previous period to $221 following the recent price rise.

The broker continues to expect Class Trust contribution to remain muted until FY23.

Looking ahead, Wilsons suspects top-line growth is likely to primarily arise from the documents business, recently bolstered by the acquisition of TopDocs for $13m. The broker notes guidance of $65m and earnings of $25m appears broadly in line with consensus.

Marketweight unchanged: Target $2.26 under review.

This report was published on February 17, 2021.

Target price is $2.26 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.39
If CL1 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.50.

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.24

Canaccord Genuity rates ((COE)) as Buy (1) –

Subject to finalisation of its year-end audit, Cooper Energy is expected to report FY21 underlying earnings (EBITDAX) of $30m, which was below consensus of $45m, and Canaccord Genuity's at $47m.

Canaccord Genuity notes the company expects to report an underlying net loss after tax of approximately $26m, including depreciation and amortisation of $43m, and net finance costs of ~$13m.

From Canaccord Genuity perspective three main drivers of this miss were operating costs of $64m were $6m higher than forecast,  third-party gas purchases were $4m higher than anticipated, and other expenditure was $6m higher than forecast.

For FY22 the broker is forecasting production guidance of 3.5mnboe and earnings (EBITDAX) of $67m.

Canaccord Genuity maintains its Buy rating. The target price is lowered to $0.40 from $0.45.

This research update was released on August 18, 2021.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.16
If COE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 12.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQE    CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT

Childcare – Overnight Price: $3.78

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CQE)) as Buy (1) –

While Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT reported FY21 results slightly below Canaccord Genuity expectations, the broker continues to see some valuation upside in the stock, and potential catalysts in the form of asset purchases given the balance sheet capacity and outlook commentary.

The outlook for FY22 included distribution guidance of 16.7c. The trust noted a slight moderation in childcare supply, with 159 centres added in the last six months compared to 181 in the previous period and 204 in the corresponding 2019 period.

The broker expects growth from the already announced acquisitions and developments, as well as rental increases and further investments.

The broker believes the trust is well-positioned to invest substantially more in social infrastructure assets and notes a pivot towards the portfolio eventually being 50%-plus non-childcare.

Buy rating is unchanged and the target increases to $3.69 from $3.18.

The report was published on August 13, 2021.

Target price is $3.69 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If CQE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.36.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.11.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CQE)) as Buy (2) –

Despite a slightly weaker-than-expected FY21 result and FY22 guidance, Jarden believes Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT's 6.4% distribution per unit (DPU) growth could prove conservative and well ahead of the average for the passive REIT peer group.

Jarden has reduced FY22 forecasts by 2% but remains ahead of guidance, as this does not include any further acquisitions or rising inflation. With $207m of debt capacity at a very low marginal cost of debt (less than 2%), the broker expects acquisitions to drive upgrades.

Despite the 70bps cap rate compression in FY21 and 11% net tangible asset (NTA) growth, the broker still sees some upside to NTA from fixed rent increases (2.9%) and 20bps further cap rate compression.

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating, and the target increases to $3.70 from $3.45.

This report was published on August 12, 2021.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If CQE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.80 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.72.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.90 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.43.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((CQE)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis' medium-term earnings profile for Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT has been reduced due to childcare asset disposals, timing delays on developments, and development cost inflation.

However, the broker notes most of these headwinds to earnings are temporary in nature, with the earnings growth profile likely to improve through further balance sheet deployment.

The broker calculates deployment capacity of $225m before reaching the midpoint of the REIT's 30-40% target gearing range.

Moelis expects capacity to expand as valuation gains continue to be realised and notes that the REIT has access to funding mechanisms including the potential sale of its 3.5% stake in Arena REIT ((ARF)).

Hold rating and target price is lowered to $3.50 from $3.52.

This report was published on August 13, 2021.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If CQE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.70 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.60.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.90 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.54.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG    DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $5.30

Goldman Sachs rates ((DHG)) as Neutral (3) –

In addition to continued strength in underlying revenue trends, another key positive from Domain Holdings Australia's reported FY21 result – which saw yield growth ahead of expectations – notes Goldman Sachs was the acceleration in controllable yield growth, highlighted by the 15% growth in the lock-down impacted July 2021, with the company reiterating its 12% through the cycle target.

Equally noteworthy, adds the broker, was the company's relatively upbeat assessment of FY22 listings: Including growth in July (nationally) and expectations for any negative lock-down impact to be caught up in later periods, plus the company's explicit commitment to margin expansion, and a planned continuation of annual price-rises.

While Goldman Sachs revises FY22-24 earnings -1% to +2% to reflect the stronger revenues and associated opex investments, lower D&A drives the broker's earnings per share (EPS) estimates 8% to 10%.

The Neutral rating and target price of $5.40 are retained. 

This report was published on August 17, 2021. 

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $0.1
If DHG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting downside of -1.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 39.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of 46.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((DHG)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes that while Domain Holdings Australia's FY21 revenue result was in line, underlying earnings were stronger than expected driven by a volume rebound in the second half. Further, national listings are tracking positively year-to-date despite lockdowns.

The broker has updated underlying earnings for FY22 and FY23 by -4.5% and -4.2% respectively, and profit after tax by 0% and -0.9%, driven by an expected softer listing environment in FY22.

Despite this, it is Jarden's view that Domain Holdings Australia is well positioned to continue to benefit from near-term depth penetration uptake on expected housing momentum once restrictions are lifted. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.50 from $5.40.

This report was published on August 17, 2021.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $0.2
If DHG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting downside of -1.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.20 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 63.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 39.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of 46.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS    DEXUS

REITs – Overnight Price: $10.66

Jarden rates ((DXS)) as Buy (2) –

Dexus' FY21 funds from operations of 66.1 cents per share was in line with Jarden's expectations, and the company is guiding to at least 2% dividend per share growth in FY22.

The broker notes the second half of FY21 saw Dexus grow funds under management to $25bn, but management has aspirations to double this to $50bn. Further, Jarden highlights the company's balance sheet could allow for debt funded acquisitions to drive earnings growth.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $11.30 from $10.60.

This report was published on August 17, 2021. 

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $10.66 Difference: $0.64
If DXS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.91, suggesting upside of 1.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 52.90 cents and EPS of 68.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.9, implying annual growth of -38.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 71.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.0, implying annual growth of 3.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHL    EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.13

Euroz Hartleys rates ((EHL)) as Buy (1) –

Emeco Holdings' FY21 operating profit after tax of $57m proved a beat on Euroz Harleys' forecast of $54m. The company also announced a dividend of 1.25 cents per share.

The broker highlights the company has also announced a small on-market buyback of around $4m, which it finds unusual. Despite this, it is Euroz Hartley's view that the company's FY21 results are good and in line with expectations. 

The broker notes improving macro conditions in the mining cycle is key driver of earnings, and improvement in coal demand could be a big catalyst.

The broker is Buy rated with a target price of $1.33. 

This report was published on August 19, 2021.

Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.2
If EHL meets the Euroz Hartleys target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EML    EML PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $4.03

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EML)) as Hold (3) –

EML Payments has provided guidance for FY22 revenue to be between $220m and $255m at a 69% gross profit margin with earnings to be between $58m and $65m.

Canaccord Genuity attributes the core drivers of the FY22 earnings revisions to higher investment in Sentenial, lower expected gross profit margins due to lower run-rate reloadable margins, and higher opex/compliance costs.

The broker believes there does not appear to be an issue with the company's revenue growth which is expected to be 13%/31% in FY22. 

Canaccord foresees the company acquiring PFS for $252m, which generates $47m in gross profit while retaining its long-term potential growth profile. The broker's FY22 and FY23 earnings forecasts have been revised -20% and -18%, respectively.

Hold rating and target of $3.50 are both unchanged.

This report was first published August 18, 2021.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If EML meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 18.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 103.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDF    GARDA PROPERTY GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.45

Moelis rates ((GDF)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Moelis believes Garda Property Group's development pipeline offers a unique exposure amongst small-cap REITs and expects the group to be accretive over time, with funding likely to come from a mix of valuation support, asset recycling, equity, and debt.

The group has guided to flat dividend per share (DPS) of 7.2c in FY22, and an expected payout ratio of 85% – 90%, implying earnings per share (EPS) of 8.0c to 8.5c.

The broker notes the group's development pipeline is up to 160k sqm following the acquisition of 3 sites announced in May 2021. From a capital commitments perspective, Moelis assume $27m is required in FY22, with a further $40m expected to be deployed in FY23.

Moelis' DPS estimates are consistent with FY22 guidance, and the broker's earnings increase is largely driven by higher than anticipated capitalised interest in FY22.

Moelis downgrades Garda Property Group to Hold from Buy and the target price increases to $1.41 from $1.40.

This report was published on August 13, 2021.

Target price is $1.41 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If GDF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.90.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.60 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.86.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG    GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $22.77

Jarden rates ((GMG)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden sees Goodman Group as being in a good position to deliver 10-14% annual earnings per share (EPS) growth in the next three years on the back of a strong development pipeline, growing assets under management (AUM), and reinvesting retained earnings.

Jarden has upgraded FY23/24 forecasts to reflect the growing development pipeline but notes that the earnings composition is shifting towards more development income (50%-plus of earnings).

Jarden notes while management's continued use of options to smooth earnings and avoid too much volatility, should be good for the sustainability of earnings growth, the broker believes it also raises questions around visibility and quality of earnings, especially with 50%-plus of earnings likely to come from (riskier) development profits.

The Underweight rating is unchanged and the target price increases to $20.70 from $19.

This report was published on August 12, 2021.

Target price is $20.70 Current Price is $22.77 Difference: minus $2.07 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $24.40, suggesting upside of 7.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 74.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.5, implying annual growth of -39.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 33.40 cents and EPS of 82.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.4, implying annual growth of 13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT    GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $5.02

Goldman Sachs rates ((GPT)) as Buy (1) –

GPT Group's first half results were solid, with funds from operations of 15.64 cents per share an approximate 3% beat on Goldman Sachs' forecast. The company also reported a 13.3 cent dividend per share. 

The broker highlights given GPT Group's retail portfolio is largely concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne ongoing impact from current lockdowns should be expected, but retail sales and trading are expected to improve following restrictions. 

Further, Goldman Sachs notes the company is well positioned for acquisition opportunities or future developments, and GPT Group did note it is in exclusive due diligence with Ascot Capital for a potential $800m portfolio acquisition. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.08 from $5.11.

The report was published on August 16, 2020.

Target price is $5.08 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.06
If GPT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.98, suggesting upside of 0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of 9.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((GPT)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden applauds GPT Group for looking beyond current lockdowns to the strong retail recovery in second half FY21, which the broker believes bodes for when lockdowns end, the potential accretive acquisition of the $800m Ascot logistics and office portfolio, and the potential upside from the longer-term development pipeline.

While taking gearing to 30-35% in the current environment involves some risk, Jarden believes it will underpin a strong earnings recovery beyond second half FY21.

Jarden has lowered second half FY21 forecasts to reflect a 70% gross collection rate, but notes this could still prove optimistic if bad news on current infections overshadows progress in terms of vaccination.

The Neutral recommendation remains unchanged, with the target price increased to $5.10 from $4.90.

The report was issued August 16, 2021.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.08
If GPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.98, suggesting upside of 0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.70 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of 9.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMD    IMDEX LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.33

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IMD)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity was impressed with Imdex Ltd's reported second half FY21 margin expansion that saw earnings comfortably ahead of the broker's forecast.

While no specific guidance was provided, the early indicators all suggest to the broker that FY22 appears likely to be another year of strong growth.

The broker notes geographically, it appears that the Americas is leading the company's recent growth with second-half FY21 segment earnings of $16.9m compared to $0.1m in the previous period, while margins were also robust in Africa/Europe.

In regard to the gross margin, Canaccord believes there is likely to be a small increase in FY22 and has increased revenue estimates by 3% and 4% in FY22 and FY23, respectively, but also increase earning margins forecasts by 160bps and 180bps.

Canaccord Genuity maintains its Buy rating with the target price increasing to $2.70 from $1.97.

The report was published on August 17, 2021.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.37
If IMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.90 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.30.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.42.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $45.79

Bell Potter rates ((JBH)) as Hold (3) –

Driven by strong like-for-like sales throughout the year, JB Hi-Fi's FY21 result was in line with its 20 July update, with earnings lifting 54% to $743.1m.

The company stated discounting is returning in the market as inventory levels improve, and Bell Potter expects discounting to increase further as consumers start to shop around again. Meantime, the broker notes cost of goods sold (COGS) inflation is also a headwind with the company noting that conversations around potential price rises with suppliers have started.

Given the robust sales trading update entering FY22, Bell Potter has strengthened sales forecasts, resulting in FY22 earnings per share (EPS) increases by 9.8%, although the broker notes there is no material change in FY23/FY24.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $47.15 from $46.50.

This report was published on August 16, 2021.

Target price is $47.15 Current Price is $45.79 Difference: $1.36
If JBH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $52.31, suggesting upside of 15.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 213.80 cents and EPS of 326.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 321.3, implying annual growth of -27.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 211.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 196.50 cents and EPS of 302.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 320.4, implying annual growth of -0.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 208.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((JBH)) as Neutral (3) –

JB Hi-Fi's full-year FY21 results reported $8,916.1m in sales and $506.1m in profit after tax, with operating cash flow of $558.7m.

Following FY21 results, Goldman Sachs notes The Good Guys' trading momentum has continued into July and August and online sales continue to improve, while JBH Australia has seen an approximate 80 basis point decline. 

Goldman Sachs expects the current favourable trading environment to be temporary in nature. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $49.60 from $49.40.

This report was published on August 16, 2021.

Target price is $49.60 Current Price is $45.79 Difference: $3.81
If JBH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $52.31, suggesting upside of 15.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 219.00 cents and EPS of 335.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 321.3, implying annual growth of -27.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 211.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 206.00 cents and EPS of 315.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 320.4, implying annual growth of -0.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 208.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((JBH)) as Underweight (4) –

While Jarden's earning forecasts for JB Hi-Fi are largely unchanged with the trading update in line, the broker remains cautious with a return to discounting and little scope to lower the cost of doing business (CODB) suggesting 150bp-plus of earnings margin compression in FY22.

Overall, Jarden continues to see the company as a great business, yet one with mounting competitive risks which create risk to medium-term return on invested capital (ROIC).

While Jarden thinks the company is one of the best electronics retailers globally, the broker notes competition is increasing and customer expectations are rising, specifically with respect to last-mile, and data capabilities.

The Underweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $46.00 from $47.00.

This report was published on August 16, 2021.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $45.79 Difference: $0.21
If JBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $52.31, suggesting upside of 15.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 200.00 cents and EPS of 307.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 321.3, implying annual growth of -27.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 211.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 288.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 320.4, implying annual growth of -0.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 208.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG    MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $42.75

Goldman Sachs rates ((MFG)) as Sell (5) –

Following Magellan Financial Group's FY21 adjusted net profit of $412.7m, down -6% on the previous period and -4% below Goldman Sachs, the broker notes the group did not provide a clear message around the near-term contribution for its new non-core investments.

Goldman Sachs assumes a drag of circa $20m for FY22.

The broker notes while the second half FY21 core funds management result was good, expense guidance for FY22 of $125-130m was greater than anticipated, and Goldman Sachs continues to see risks to revenues.

On balance, the broker downgrades FY22 and FY23 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) by -2.5%, and -2.9% respectively.

The Sell rating is retained and the target price is lowered to $46.07 from $49.20.

This report was published on August 17, 2021.

Target price is $46.07 Current Price is $42.75 Difference: $3.32
If MFG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $47.22, suggesting upside of 13.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 254.00 cents and EPS of 260.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 250.1, implying annual growth of 73.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 241.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 268.00 cents and EPS of 284.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 271.8, implying annual growth of 8.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 253.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((MFG)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Magellan Financial Group's adjusted profit after tax of $413m was a -$30m, or -7%, miss on Jarden's forecast which the broker notes was solely driven by higher-than-expected losses from strategic investment. 

The Barrenjoey investment was a large driver of a -$42m loss, and Jarden expects higher costs to continue dragging on earnings in the short term, but also notes losses are likely to stabilise in the first half of FY22.

Jarden updates earnings per share estimates by -10%, -5% and -12% through to FY24. The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight and the target price decreases to $47.20 from $57.50.

This report was published on August 18, 2021.

Target price is $47.20 Current Price is $42.75 Difference: $4.45
If MFG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $47.22, suggesting upside of 13.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 234.40 cents and EPS of 250.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 250.1, implying annual growth of 73.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 241.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 247.40 cents and EPS of 287.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 271.8, implying annual growth of 8.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 253.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR    MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $3.02

Jarden rates ((MGR)) as Overweight (2) –

With strong coverage across the active part of Mirvac's business, with 91% residential earnings locked in, Jarden sees upside potential should the group be able to deliver on the sustained strength in residential markets in FY21. However, the broker notes delays in delivery would have the opposite effect.

Following on from FY21 earnings per share (EPS) of 14.0c, which beat upgraded guidance, Jarden believes FY22 sets the stage to be a big year for residential, with a pull-forward of projects to meet demand manifesting in higher pre-sales, up 25% year-on-year to $1.2bn.

The broker continues to see the group as well placed to capitalise on the strength of residential markets into FY22/23, but ultimately believes a strong commercial development pipeline and scaling up of residential derivative build-to-rent (BTR) will complement as residential tailwinds start to ease looking further ahead.

Overweight rating and target of $3.20 are both unchanged.

This report was issued August 12, 2021.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.18
If MGR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.14, suggesting upside of 5.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of -35.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 10.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MNY    MONEY3 CORPORATION LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $3.46

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MNY)) as Buy (1) –

Having successfully navigated a year where one of the biggest challenges was getting cash out the door into the hands of borrowers, Canaccord Genuity believes pent-up demand flowing through to the loan book growth sets Money3 Corp up nicely for 20%-plus growth in FY22. 

Looking beyond some of the caution implied by the guidance, the broker believes the company is demonstrably growing its asset base while maintaining improvements in credit quality, funding costs, and the diversification of its funding sources.

The company closed the year with the gross loan book at $601m, which Canaccord suggests means organic growth of 21% (excl. AFS).

The broker believes $170m in current funding headroom should be sufficient to get the book to $850m.

Management anticipates being able to deliver 20%-plus  growth in FY22,  in line with consensus, and Canaccord numbers provide for 38% growth in the average gross loan book, 31% revenue growth, and some normalisation in BDD, which translates to 24% net profit growth.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.20 from $3.60.

This report was published on August 17, 2021. 

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.74
If MNY meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.04.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.36.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Shaw and Partners rates ((MNY)) as Buy (1) –

Having delivered what Shaw and Partners believe was a cracking FY21 result, the broker notes Money3 Corp is increasingly giving further disclosure on near term and long term growth with the loan book flagged to grow to $760m in FY22.

The broker notes from a company nearly completely equity financed that was paying 12%-plus for debt with associated incentives when initiated upon, the company is now flexing the high risk-adjusted returns that are attractive to financiers.

Following the FY21 result, Shaw makes changes to the composition of the broker's loan book increasing loans in lower yield divisions (such as AFS & NZ) while lowering core used in Australia. The net result of Shaw's changes is net profit up 3% across forecast years.

The stock’s Buy rating is maintained with the target price moving to $4.13 from $3.49.

The report was published on August 18, 2021

Target price is $4.13 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.67
If MNY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.90 cents and EPS of 22.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.38.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.30 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.01.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPS    PRAEMIUM LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.19

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PPS)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity believes the drag on Praemium Ltd's earnings is coming largely from the ongoing A&NZ funds outflow, while an investment in the business has front-ended the onboarding of new VMASS and Platform clients during the period, the benefits of which the broker expects to be realised in FY22.

The broker's FY22 earnings forecast (Australia) is largely unchanged at $25.4m, however, that does account for the reallocated $1.6m in UAE-associated costs. For FY22 the broker is forecasting the combined international operation to deliver a loss of $2.3m, from $3.9m in FY21.

Overall, at an earnings level, the broker has downgraded FY22 and FY23 earnings to $22m and $26.8m respectively.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.33 from $1.30.

This report was published on August 17, 2021.

Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.14
If PPS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.67.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Shaw and Partners rates ((PPS)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners reports Praemium's FY21 results were weaker-than-expected, driven by higher costs from sales, marketing and platform investments, as well as the costs of the Powerwrap acquisition. 

While no FY22 guidance was provided, the broker notes record flows continued into January and finds Praemium an attractive investment prospect. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.35 from $1.00.

This report was published on August 17, 2021.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.16
If PPS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 119.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 99.17.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $11.94

Jarden rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden believes QBE Insurance Group's first-half FY21 results provided clear evidence of its significant leverage to the strongest commercial premium rate cycle in the past decade. 

The broker notes gross written premium (GWP) growth accelerated to 27%, while well-above inflation premium rate rises and scale efficiencies, drove the underlying combined operating ratio (COR) below 92%, leading to a near doubling of underlying underwriting profits on the previous period.

While Jarden's is mindful of premium rate momentum moderating and claims inflation potentially surfacing, the broker sees further margin expansion ahead for the group, with the COR forecast to fall to 91% by FY22.

The target price lifts to $14.20 from $13.15 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 12, 2021.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $11.94 Difference: $2.26
If QBE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.94, suggesting upside of 18.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 62.53 cents and EPS of 78.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 90.46 cents and EPS of 100.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.2, implying annual growth of 23.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL    REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.21

Shaw and Partners rates ((RRL)) as Coverage initiated with Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners have initiated coverage on Regis Resources with a Buy and a target price of $3.20.

The broker believes FY21 was a pivotal year for Regis with the company establishing a step-change in the production base to 500koz pa via a well-timed acquisition, while the core asset (Duketon) continued generating an earnings margin of over $1,000/oz at current spot prices.

Shaw believes the longevity of the company is also underpinned by 5Moz of gold reserves and over 10Mozs of resources, while more production growth opportunities also lie ahead. 

Shaw believes Regal is the cheapest gold miner in the broker's coverage universe (P/NPV basis) and has a production pathway to FY25 that is sector leading.

This report was issued August 18, 2021.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.99
If RRL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 56.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.9, implying annual growth of -5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 32.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 0.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCP    SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP RE LIMITED

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.70

Jarden rates ((SCP)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden highlights, despite covid lockdowns driving a -5% decrease to FY22 funds from operations forecasts, Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group is still expected to achieve 8% growth in funds from operations for the year. 

The broker expects a -$1.0-1.5m monthly impact to the company's funds from operations from the current lockdowns, but expects a strong recovery based on the results of the second half of FY21.

Further, the company executed $452m in acquisitions throughout FY21, with management confident in delivering a further $200-250m in acquisitions each year, which Jarden expects to drive superior growth.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.95 from $2.80.

This report was published on August 17, 2021.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.25
If SCP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting downside of -6.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -63.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 6.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((SCP)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group's funds from operations of 14.76 cents per share proved ahead of Moelis' forecast of 14.5 cents, despite covid impacting adjusted funds from operations by around -$7.3m. 

The company is guiding to an expected -$0.5m impact each for every additional month Victoria and New South Wales remain in lockdown. Moelis notes FY21 results show the resilience of the portfolio, and expects a quick recovery following lockdown.

Looking ahead, the company is set to benefit from the full year contributions of nine additional assets acquired in FY21. 

The rating is downgraded to Hold and the target price increases to $2.70 from $2.68.

The report was published on August 18, 2021.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0
If SCP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting downside of -6.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.90 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -63.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 6.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $6.19

Goldman Sachs rates ((STO)) as No Rating (-1) –

While there is potential for further capital recycling through farm-ins/sell downs as Santos executes on its growth pipeline, Goldman Sachs believes the company is leveraged to continued upside risk in oil.

The first half FY21 result was in-line, with underlying earnings (EBITDAX) up 24% on the previous period, and 2021 guidance is unchanged, with production guidance for 2021 remaining at 87-91mmboe.

Expenditure of $1.6bn is also unchanged, with Santos continuing to target a free cash flow (FCF) breakeven of US$25/boe (pre-hedging).

Meantime, Santos is finalising the sale of 12.5% of Barossa with JERA, with major workstreams initiated, Dorado FEED underway, with the final investment decision expected around mid-2022.

Goldman Sachs is not rated on Santos.

This report was published on August 17, 2021.

Current Price is $6.19. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $8.00, suggesting upside of 31.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.63 cents and EPS of 54.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.77 cents and EPS of 77.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.9, implying annual growth of 23.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SWM    SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $0.45

Goldman Sachs rates ((SWM)) as Neutral (3) –

Seven West Media's FY21 results were largely in line with Goldman Sachs' expectations, with the company reporting a 1% beat in sales and 2% beat in profit after tax, but a -3% miss in underlying earnings. 

Goldman Sachs highlights the big disappointment of the update was cost guidance for FY22, with the company guiding to $1,175-1,195m, ahead of the broker's forecast of $1,097m. This is largely due to high content production costs, as well as the one off costs related to the Olympics which were $12m higher than expected.

Goldman Sachs updates underlying earnings forecasts -7% to -3% through to FY24. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.52 from $0.55.

This report was published on August 16, 2021.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.07
If SWM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.72, suggesting upside of 59.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.0, implying annual growth of -51.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 13.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TGR    TASSAL GROUP LIMITED

Aquaculture – Overnight Price: $3.62

Goldman Sachs rates ((TGR)) as Buy (1) –

Despite uncertainty for volumes into the domestic wholesale channel given current covid lockdowns, Goldman Sachs believes the outlook is generally more positive for Tassal Group in FY22.

Medium-term, the broker expects a return to a more normal supply/demand balance to drive higher prices and see the group deliver improved earnings/kg for both salmon and prawns.

While export markets seem to be on a strong recovery path, the broker notes the most difficult swing factor to gauge is market conditions in the domestic wholesale channel.

The broker has cut FY22/FY23 earnings per share (EPS) by -1.4%/-4.6% mainly on the back of minor adjustments to sales mix, and prices, driving a -0.7%/-0.1% change in FY22/FY23 earnings.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target price is lowered to $4.00 from $4.10.

This report was published on August 17, 2021.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.62 Difference: $0.38
If TGR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 27.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.12.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.60 cents and EPS of 29.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBI    UNIVERSAL BIOSENSORS, INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.83

Sequoia rates ((UBI)) as Buy (1) –

Sequoia believes Universal Biosensors' interim result, with revenue 13% ahead of the broker's $3.0m forecasts, provides confidence in the company's product development pipeline, with 3 further Sentia tests by December, and new cancer Tn Antigen biosensor to commence clinical later trials this year.

There are no changes to the broker's forecasts. Sequoia reiterates a Buy rating, and the target price increases to $1.69 from $1.42.

This report was issued August 10, 2021.

Target price is $1.69 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.86
If UBI meets the Sequoia target it will return approximately 104% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Sequoia forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 24.41.

Forecast for FY22:

Sequoia forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 41.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VVA    VIVA LEISURE LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $1.58

Moelis rates ((VVA)) as Buy (1) –

Viva Leisure's FY21 revenue was largely in line with Moelis' expectations, totaling $83.7m, while underlying earnings of $13.1m were within the company's provided guidance range. 

Moelis notes the impact of current lockdowns has been material given restrictions in three of the four states Viva Leisure operates in, and the company has reported a -$6.9m revenue impact on FY22 to date. An additional -$5.3m impact is expected through September and October from lockdown in NSW alone.

Long-term, it is Moelis' view that management has proven ability to execute on strategy and there may be an opportunity to consolidate a fragmented market. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.45 from $3.05.

This report was published on August 18, 2021.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.87
If VVA meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 98.75.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.12.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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