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Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 19, 2021

Daily Market Reports | Jul 19 2021

This story features AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIZ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AIZ   ALU (2)   APC   AQR   ARF   ASB   AVH   BET   BGA   BOE   BOQ   BPT   BTH   BXB   CBA   CLU   CNI   COE   COL   CQE   DDH   EHL   IGO   IPH   IRI   MAH   MNY   NWH   OPY   OSH   PBH   PWR   STO   SXY   SYD   TRJ   UWL   VCX   WGX   WPL  

AIZ    AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $1.47

Jarden rates ((AIZ)) as Sell (5) –

Air New Zealand issued in-line earnings guidance for FY21 though announced a major downgrade for FY22.

Jarden continues to see operational challenges for border reopenings and further upside risk to jet fuel costs, which could drive further earnings downgrades. This is considered untimely when the company is looking to raise material new equity.

The broker downgrades its FY22 and FY23 revenue forecasts, due to a slower revenue recovery profile on lower Tasman and long-haul load factors and negative mix effect on yields in the Tasman.

Jarden's Sell rating is retained and its target price decreases to NZ$0.95 from NZ$1.10.

This report was published on June 18, 2021. 

Current Price is $1.47. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 27.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.34.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.84.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALU    ALTIUM

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $36.55

Jarden rates ((ALU)) as Underweight (2) –

Jarden points out that Altium continues to commit to delivering US$500m revenue and 100,000 subscribers by 2025. Management  expects to achieve the latter without M&A though hitting the US$500m may rely on 10-20% of the total coming from acquisitions.

Regarding the bid by Autodesk for the company, management stated it will continue to engage with the bidder, and other potential parties, around strategic partnerships. They are open to bids, but at what they deem to be the right price.

A trading update revealed the company expects FY21 revenue to be at the low-end of guidance of US$190-195m. This includes circa US$11m from TASKING, which was sold on the 5th February.

Jarden retains its Underweight rating and $23 target price.

This report was published on June 18, 2021.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $36.55 Difference: minus $13.55 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $35.30, suggesting downside of -3.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 55.10 cents and EPS of 44.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 82.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 81.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 59.10 cents and EPS of 52.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 69.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.3, implying annual growth of 20.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 67.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates ((ALU)) as Buy (1) –

During an investor presentation recently hosted by Altium, the company re-affirmed that FY21 revenue and earnings would be at the low end of guidance and that FY25 goals are achievable.

Commenting on the presentation, Shaw and Partners notes that positive momentum has returned to the company. The broker believes Altium's mainstream dominance is a strategic asset.

Shaw also believes the company's proven ability to out-innovate the competition and strong early adoption of its cloud platform provides management with confidence in its ability to execute through FY25, and ultimately become the “world’s would-be-largest manufacturer of electronics – that owns no factory”.

Shaw maintains a Buy rating and target price of $38.50, which is in line with the proposed rejected offer from Autodesk.

Shaw will conduct a full review of forecasts and valuation methodology at the upcoming full-year result. Meanwhile, the broker feels the downside is limited and that there is a reasonable chance of a revised offer from Autodesk, or even a competing bid from private equity, big tech or other trade buyers.

This report was published on June 22, 2021. 

Target price is $38.50 Current Price is $36.55 Difference: $1.95
If ALU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.30, suggesting downside of -3.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 73.24 cents and EPS of 46.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 78.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 81.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 80.18 cents and EPS of 52.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 69.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.3, implying annual growth of 20.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 67.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APC    AUSTRALIAN POTASH LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $0.14

Shaw and Partners rates ((APC)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners noted numerous positive read-throughs for Australian Potash from BHP Group's ((BHP)) recently hosted inaugural potash briefing.

Australian Potash is preparing for the start-up of its flagship 100%-owned Lake Wells sulphate of potash project in Western Australia.

The broker notes BHP’s view of muriate of potash prices implies an Australian Potash valuation of $0.38ps. Shaw's Buy rating and target price of $0.32 are retained.

But the broker believes the stock appears very cheap at current levels, with every $50/t in sulphate of potash realised pricing adding 6cps to Shaw's Australian Potash model.

This report was published on June 22, 2021. 

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.18
If APC meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 28.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQR    APN CONVENIENCE RETAIL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.71

Moelis rates ((AQR)) as Buy (1) –

APN Convenience Retail announced a 10% net tangible asset valuation increase since December 2020. The portfolio's weighted average capitalisation rate (WACR) has fallen to 6.02% from 6.47% in December 2020.

Moelis retains its Buy rating and $4.11 target price. In general, the analyst believes the REIT’s current cap rate of 6.0% represents a relatively attractive entry point.

This report was published on June 21, 2021.

Target price is $4.11 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: $0.4
If AQR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.86.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.60 cents and EPS of 23.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.52.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF    ARENA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.60

Moelis rates ((ARF)) as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) –

Moelis downgrades its rating to Sell from Hold after a share price rally of around 18% since February. The REIT is currently trading on a FY22 dividend yield substantially below long-weighted average lease expiry (WALE) peers.

The REIT has added six projects to its development pipeline since December, which is now comprised of 13 projects. Moelis increases its target price to $3.23 from $3.07.

This report was published on June 21, 2021.

Target price is $3.23 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting downside of -1.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.80 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of -34.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.10 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 8.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASB    AUSTAL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies – Overnight Price: $2.19

Shaw and Partners rates ((ASB)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners notes an improvement in sentiment for Austal has been somewhat derailed by a covid-19 induced earnings downgrade, commencement of ASIC civil proceedings and the company’s removal from the ASX200 index.

In a major strategic move, the company is currently investing to become a major naval steel hulled shipbuilder, and positive developments in recent weeks suggest to the broker this steel potential is emerging.

The near-term outlook remains uncertain with a declining order book for shipbuilding and relative weakness in vessel sustainment, at least through 2021, explains the analyst. The broker's target price is reduced to $2.80 from $3 and the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on June 21, 2021.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.61
If ASB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 27.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of -10.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.3, implying annual growth of -9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVH    AVITA MEDICAL INC

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $5.08

Bell Potter rates ((AVH)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter updates forecasts to reflect upgraded fourth quarter revenue guidance from Avita Medical. Management raised the midpoint of guidance by 14%, largely due to stronger-than-expected demand from hospitals for the Recell spray on skin product.

The company forecasts FY22 revenues of $33m, implying to the broker 32% revenue growth relative to the exit rate from the fourth quarter. The analyst upgrades its FY21 revenue forecasts by 4%, while changes to FY22/FY23 are not material.

Bell Potter expects generation of positive cash flows from operations in FY24. The broker's Buy rating and $9.80 target price are maintained.

This report was published on June 21, 2021.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: $4.72
If AVH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 118.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.29.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 119.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.26.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BET    BETMAKERS TECHNOLOGY GROUP LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.98

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BET)) as Buy (1) –

The New Jersey State Senate and State General Assembly recently passed a Bill that authorises fixed odds wagering on thoroughbred horse races.

Canaccord Genuity's interpretation of the Bill is that it requires account holders to be at least 18 years of age, which opens up an incremental customer base for NJ corporate bookmakers.

The broker believes this will likely act as a significant incentive for the bookmakers to sign up with Betmakers to receive the fixed odds product.

Canaccord also notes by extension this will likely create more interest from independent racetracks wanting to work with Betmakers in monetising their content.

The Buy rating and target price of $1.45 are both unchanged.

This report was published on June 22, 2021.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.47
If BET meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 245.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 980.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BGA    BEGA CHEESE LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $5.37

Bell Potter rates ((BGA)) as Buy (1) –

Having reviewed movements in commodity returns and opening farmgate prices for the 2021-22 season, there are no material changes to Bell Potter's forecasts, with the Buy rating and target price of $7.35 for Bega Cheese both remaining unchanged. 

The broker expects the acquisition of Lion Dairy & Drinks and the targeted synergy base to drive a material step change in returns for Bega over the next three years.

In addition, Bell Potter sees Bega benefiting from an improved competitive position at the farmgate in FY22 as indicated by the company opening its 2021-22 Southern farmgate milk price at the upper end of the industry at $6.80KgMS.

This report was published on June 222, 2021.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $1.98
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 23.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 13.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 67.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 30.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of 73.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOE    BOSS ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.15

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BOE)) as Buy (1) –

Having assessed Boss Energy's enhanced restart study for its fully permitted Honeymoon Uranium project in South Australia, Canaccord Genuity concludes the study has met or exceeded the broker's estimates at every level.

With a 12-month lead time to first production, bottom quartile capital intensity and low AISC of US$26/lb, the broker remains confident Honeymoon will be one of the first projects to restart as the market tightens.

Canaccord now models a breakeven price of less than US$35/lb for Honeymoon. Canaccord rates Boss Energy as a Buy with the target price rising to $0.23 from $0.21.

This report was published on June 22, 2021.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.08
If BOE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 75.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 150.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOQ    BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $8.85

Goldman Sachs rates ((BOQ)) as Buy (1) –

Bank of Queensland has announced that the Federal Treasurer has approved its acquisition of Members Equity Bank Limited (ME Bank). The acquisition was funded by a $1.35bn equity raise.

Having incorporated ME Bank’s earnings into the broker's Bank of Queensland forecasts, Goldman Sachs' FY21, FY22, and FY23 earnings per share estimates move up by 5%, 38%, and 41% respectively.

Goldman Sachs's retained Buy rating reflects continued improvements in volume momentum, particularly in housing, and the group's funding mix, which will be positively leveraged to the current funding environment.

The broker also notes the growth and synergy opportunity that the ME Bank acquisition provides the group. The target price moves to $9.90 from $9.85.

This report was published on June 21, 2021.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $8.85 Difference: $1.05
If BOQ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.84, suggesting upside of 11.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.4, implying annual growth of 174.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.8, implying annual growth of 2.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.29

Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden has initiated on the oil and gas sector and provided detail on a number of companies as they address rising investor concerns about the role of fossil fuels as a future energy.

According to Jarden, market confidence in Beach Energy will take some time to rebuild following the company's surprise -38% downgrade to the company's Western Flank reserves.

For investors willing to wait, Jarden believes there is upside to the Otway drilling, Waitsia LNG marketing and Trefoil development. 

The broker expects investors will likely be waiting until FY24 for higher dividends, as significant investment will impact free cash flow ahead. 

Beach Energy currently reports only its gross emissions, but has outlined a reduction target based on this. Jarden notes a reduction of -25% by FY25 is likely to be achieved through activities in the Western Flank coupled with lower output at BassGas. 

Jarden sees value in Beach Energy as a smaller cap stock pick for the sector. Jarden initiates with an Overweight rating and a target price of $1.50.

This report was published on June 17, 2021.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.21
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 36.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.6, implying annual growth of -33.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BTH    BIGTINCAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $1.03

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BTH)) as Buy (1) –

The second half result highlights to Canaccord Genuity improved new business and renewals momentum, implying incremental annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of $4.6m in the second half. This equates to an annualised organic growth rate of around 20%. 

The company issued a trading update noting the achievement of greater than $53m ARR, ahead of 30-June year-end. This is at the top-end of its previous guidance of $49-53m.

The analyst believes the company is evolving into a serious SaaS player on the ASX. Management has a target to exceed over $100m ARR over the medium term. The broker's Buy rating is unchanged and its target rises to $1.55 from $1.50.

This report was published on June 18, 2020.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.52
If BTH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 42.92.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 54.21.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB    BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $11.30

Jarden rates ((BXB)) as Buy (2) –

Reflecting tight supply from lumber mills and elevated levels of demand from a range of lumber users, especially the US housing industry, lumber prices continue to rise for Brambles, increasing by more than double the prior year.

Jarden estimates lumber could have added around 4% points of inflation to Brambles' US Pallets cost base in the second half FY21.

Overall, the broker believes inflationary pressures are being effectively managed with better contract structures and surcharges, assisted by rational competition and tight supply of alternatives, like whitewood and recycled pallets.

Key risks highlighted by Jarden include irrational competition globally, ineffective inflation offsets, and pressure from higher capex.

The Overweight rating and target price of $11.85 both remain unchanged.

This report was published on June 21, 2021.

Target price is $11.85 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: $0.55
If BXB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.14, suggesting upside of 7.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 31.08 cents and EPS of 49.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 31.62 cents and EPS of 52.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.1, implying annual growth of 9.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $98.19

Goldman Sachs rates ((CBA)) as Sell (5) –

CommBank announced that it has entered an agreement to sell its Australian general insurance business to Hollard Group.

As part of the sale, CommBank will establish a 15-year strategic alliance with Hollard for the distribution of home and motor vehicle insurance products to the bank's Australian retail customers.

CommBank notes that the transaction’s upfront consideration is $625m.

But there are also deferred payments, subject to certain milestones, as well as additional investment from Hollard through the 15-year strategic alliance.

Goldman Sachs believes the transaction is entirely consistent with CommBank's strategy of simplifying the overall group, with a focus back on A&NZ banking, but still allowing customers to access non-bank product via strategic alliances.

Given CommBank's previous disclosures, the broker expects this is the last of the major transactions that the bank is likely to undertake to deliver on this simplification.

The Sell rating and target price of $80.26 are both retained.

This report was published on June 21, 2021. 

Target price is $80.26 Current Price is $98.19 Difference: minus $17.93 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $89.33, suggesting downside of -9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 446.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 476.1, implying annual growth of -12.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 343.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 480.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 519.3, implying annual growth of 9.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 389.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLU    CLUEY LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $1.03

Bell Potter rates ((CLU)) as Buy (1) –

Cluey has been selected by the NSW Government to be one of four providers for the $337m covid intensive learning support program, designed to provide ongoing student support following disruptions to the 2020 school year.

While it's difficult to assign value until take-up is achieved, the broker views this as a positive development, as it provides significant validation for the company's value proposition. It's also considered to show an appetite for additional learning support in Australia.

After adjusting assumptions applied to the relationship between the growth in core business and the cost of adding new students (CAC) to drive this growth, the analyst reduces its revenue forecasts by -15% and -12% in FY22 and FY23.

Bell Potter's Buy rating is retained and its target price falls to $1.70 from $1.80.

This report was published on June 18, 2021.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.67
If CLU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.37.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.73.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNI    CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $3.06

Moelis rates ((CNI)) as Buy (1) –

Centuria Capital has successfully completed its merger with Primewest Group ((PWG)), increasing the group's assets under management to around $15.9bn, combining two complementary real estate platforms both in terms of asset exposures and distribution capabilities.

Moelis believes the complementary asset classes, platforms, and distribution capability make strategic sense and suspects the group is well-positioned to build on this significant merged platform, having had recent experience following the introduction of Augusta.

Moelis believes the transaction is 4% accretive to the group's security holders and reinstates coverage with a Buy rating and $3.03 target price.

This report was published on June 23, 2021.

Target price is $3.03 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If CNI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting downside of -6.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 12.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of 159.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.30 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of 5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.26

Jarden rates ((COE)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden has initiated on the oil and gas sector and provided detail on a number of companies as they address rising investor concerns about the role of fossil fuels as a future energy. 

According to Jarden, Cooper Energy's focus is on identifying and resolving ongoing operational issues at the Orbost Gas Processing Plant and refinancing debt, but does note upside if both can be resolved in the next 18 months.

Identifying the root cause of foaming and fouling at Orbost has led to output well below capacity.

Cooper Energy announced in August 2020 that it was Australia's first carbon-neutral oil and gas company. Its 12,000 tonnes of reported emissions were offset through investment in an emissions project, and the company plans to remain carbon neutral. 

Jarden sees value in Cooper Energy as a smaller cap stock pick for the sector. Jarden initiates with an Overweight rating and a target price of $0.32. 

This report was published on June 17, 2021.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.06
If COE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.37, suggesting upside of 42.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 32.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 260.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL    COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $17.05

Jarden rates ((COL)) as Neutral (3) –

A strategy update from Coles shows the company is guiding to capital expenditure of $1.4bn in FY22, compared to the expected $1.1bn spend in FY21.

While Citi notes directing 60% of that capital expenditure to growth in the next financial year is a good move, the broker highlights a lack of detail as to how this will help Coles differentiate itself from Woolworths ((WOW)), to which it remains three years behind.

According to Jarden the company was under invested before its demerger and will need to accelerate capital expenditure, with the broker noting retailers need to increase investment to drive longer-term competitive advantage.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $17.00 from $17.50.

This report was issue June 17, 2021

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $17.05 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.69, suggesting upside of 3.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 78.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.2, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 76.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.7, implying annual growth of -0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQE    CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT

Childcare – Overnight Price: $3.55

Moelis rates ((CQE)) as Hold (3) –

Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT's full-year distribution of 15.7cpu is in line with guidance and equates to a yield of 4.5%.

In addition, the REIT has declared a special distribution for the year of 4.0cpu, which serves to offset the impact of taxable capital gains that were accrued during the year.

Moelis notes the childcare sector is currently the subject of strong investor interest, with many transactions in NSW & VIC occurring at cap rates of less than 5%. 

This follows the announcement in May 2021 that the federal budget now implies a 33% increase in childcare subsidies between FY21-FY25, which the broker regards as an important signal of the government’s support for the sector.

With the REIT trading at an implied cap rate of 5.2% and a 6% premium to revised net tangible assets, the broker views strong market conditions as largely priced-in.

Moelis' earnings forecasts are reduced slightly, due to increased management fees. As a result, the broker's target price reduces slightly to $3.52.

Hold rating is retained.

This report was published on June 22, 2021.

Target price is $3.52 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If CQE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.70 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.52.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.70 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.51.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DDH    DDH1 LIMITED

Overnight Price: $1.11

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DDH)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity believes the mining industry is currently in the second phase of an increase in exploration investment. It's thought this will lead to increased contractor work, via an increase in construction, followed by an increase in production.

DDH1 is a recently-listed drilling company with a fleet of 100 rigs. It has favorable exposure to the exploration phase of mineral investment, but has proven it can grow through the cycle while maintaining impressive margins, points out Canaccord.

The analyst highlights the company is somewhat protected from current labour pressures with a revenue skewed towards productivity. It also maintained strong margins through the last downturn.

The broker notes the company has the balance sheet flexibility to grow, and is trading at a roughly -50% discount to its closest international peer. Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage with a Buy rating and a $1.32 price target.

This report was published on June 21, 2021.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.21
If DDH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.20 cents and EPS of 9.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.81.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.90 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHL    EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.26

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EHL)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity believes the mining industry is currently in the second phase of an increase in exploration investment. It's thought this will lead to increased contractor work, via an increase in construction, followed by an increase in production.

The analyst initiates coverage on Emeco Holdings with a Buy rating and $1.35 price target. Emeco is an equipment rental company that also offers maintenance, rebuild and contract mining services.

The analyst highlights the company is somewhat protected from current labour pressures with the lowest labour demand of peers, with its cash flow more capital intensive.

The company has a dominant market position, with industry leading margins, an attractive valuation and less exposure to wage/labour pressures, notes the broker. 

The company operates a unique ‘mid-life asset model’ by utilising its in-house maintenance and rebuild expertise, allowing it to operate at a lower cost to its peers, explains the analyst.

This report was published on June 21, 2021.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.09
If EHL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.60 cents and EPS of 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.67.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.20 cents and EPS of 12.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.92.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $8.56

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IGO)) as Buy (1) –

In order to progress the completion of the sale of the stake in Tianqi's lithium business, IGO has announced a tax-sharing agreement with Tianqi.

The agreement means that the companies will share any unforeseen tax outcome in proportion with the JV interest (IGO 49%). There is also a clause that limits IGO's maximum exposure within the agreement, but the total was not given.

Canaccord Genuity views the announcement as a positive, removing doubt that the 30 June completion target would be met.

Based on Canaccord's estimates every -$50m in cash outflow would result in a -$0.06/share reduction in the broker's valuation of IGO.

On completion IGO will have transitioned from a nickel/gold producer to lithium/nickel producer, aligning itself with the lithium-ion supply chain with a strong growth profile.

The broker estimates IGO's earnings will transition from 75% nickel/copper-driven (25% lithium) in FY22 to 50% nickel/copper, 50% lithium in FY25.

The Buy and target price of $8.75 are both maintained.

This report was published on June 22, 2021.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $8.56 Difference: $0.19
If IGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.00, suggesting downside of -6.5%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of -11.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 8.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $8.03

Jarden rates ((IPH)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Jarden initiates coverage on IPH, a leading Intellectual Property services group. The company's key value proposition is offering services to global clients in eight Intellectual Property jurisdictions in Asia-Pacific and acting as a single market access point for that region.

The broker notes IPH has a cash generative and capital light business model which drives strong incremental return on capital, as well the long lifecycle of Intellectual Property which should provide high revenue visibility and recurring revenue streams. 

IPH has led consolidation in the Australia and New Zealand Intellectual Property services market, and Jarden estimates further debt-funded acquisition capacity of around $240m. IPH has a pipeline of pending patent applications undergoing examination over the next two to five years. 

Jarden initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $8.55.

This report was published on June 17, 2021. 

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $8.03 Difference: $0.52
If IPH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 34.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.34.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 38.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.08.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IRI    INTEGRATED RESEARCH LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $2.13

Bell Potter rates ((IRI)) as Hold (3) –

Due to customers requiring shorter-term contracts to provide future flexibility, plus delays due to indecision on future environments, Integrated Research's trading update is guiding to second half FY21 revenue and net profit below Bell Potter's forecasts.

As a result, the broker has downgraded FY21, FY22, and FY23 earnings per share forecasts by -42%, -24%, and -11% respectively.

The net result is an -18% decrease in Bell Potter's price target to $2.25 which is a 9% premium to the share price, so the broker maintains a Hold recommendation.

This report was published on June 22, 2021.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: $0.12
If IRI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 64.55.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.98.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAH    MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.22

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MAH)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity believes the mining industry is currently in the second phase of an increase in exploration investment. It's thought this will lead to increased contractor work, via an increase in construction, followed by an increase in production.

The broker initiates coverage on Macmahon Holdings with a Buy rating and $0.27 target price. The company is a contract miner that is considered to have grown impressively in recent years, and has been very successful in winning work recently.

The analyst notes the company is somewhat protected from current labour pressures in Australia, with a large workforce in Indonesia. The company also favours alliance-style contracts, so is thought to be more protected than some contractors.

Canaccord Genuity highlights a cornerstone contract with its major shareholder that has proven lucrative. The company favours contract styles that provide the most protection against wage inflation. 

This report was published on June 21, 2021.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.05
If MAH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.70 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.15.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.60 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.17.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MNY    MONEY3 CORPORATION LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $3.12

Bell Potter rates ((MNY)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Bell Potter initiates coverage on Money3 Corp with a Buy rating and $3.70 price target. The specialist provider of Automotive consumer finance in A&NZ provides secured automotive loans to customers that are unable to access mainstream lenders. 

The company is well funded to support its objectives, explains the broker. It's estimated to have capacity under existing funding arrangements to support book growth to around $800m over the medium term, from around $557m currently.

The analyst lists several positives including automotive lending macro tailwinds and improved profitability from improving loan book scale. There's also considered to be enhanced lending economics from improved lending terms and credit quality.

This report was published on June 18, 2021.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.58
If MNY meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.34.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.93.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWH    NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.80

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NWH)) as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity believes the mining industry is currently in the second phase of an increase in exploration investment. It's thought this will lead to increased contractor work, via an increase in construction, followed by an increase in production.

The broker initiates coverage on NRW Holdings with a Hold rating and $1.70 price target. The company is seen as a high-quality contractor that provides end-to-end solutions for mining and construction industries.

The analyst highlights the company is somewhat protected from current labour pressures with the shortest contract profile of peers. It's believed the ramp up and down of projects is particularly hard at present.

The company has a robust balance sheet, impressive management, a strong earnings outlook and is a clear takeover target, due to attractive multiple, explains the broker. 

Canaccord Genuity values the stock at $2.12 per share though applies a -20% discount in setting the target price, due to near-term uncertainty around second half cash results.

This report was published on June 21, 2021.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If NWH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.84.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.68.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OPY    OPENPAY GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.41

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OPY)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity believes Openpay's GBP11.5m acquisition of Payment Assist, a profitable BNPL provider in the UK automotive space, significantly increases the company's scale in the region and further demonstrates the company's focus on bigger-ticket categories with longer financing terms.

The broker assumes the acquisition settles in October, delivers slightly faster growth rates under Openpay ownership, and dilutes for all earn-out triggers. This sees the broker's group total transaction value forecasts increase by 15% in FY22 and 12% in FY23.

It also adds further confidence to the broker's expectation of earnings breakeven by the end of FY23.

.Canaccord Genuity retains a Buy recommendation, with the target price increasing to $3.30 from $2.80.

This report was issued on June 23, 2021.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $1.89
If OPY meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 134% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 47.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.95.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.52.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH    OIL SEARCH LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $3.87

Jarden rates ((OSH)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden has initiated on the oil and gas sector and provided detail on a number of companies as they address rising investor concerns about the role of fossil fuels as a future energy. 

According to Jarden, after a challenging eighteen months Oil Search Limited looks to progress its Alaskan oil development this year.

The company is moving forward on the sale of a 15% interest in the project, reducing its share to 36%, with sale profits providing partial funding for the development.

Oil Search is targeting a -30% emissions reduction by 2030, but hasn't provided clarity on existing emissions. The company is focused on emissions intensity of its gross operated business.

Oil Search is Jarden's top large cap stock pick for the sector. Jarden initiates with an Overweight rating and a target price of $4.45.

This report was published on June 17, 2021.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.87 Difference: $0.58
If OSH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 16.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.67 cents and EPS of 22.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.34 cents and EPS of 30.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 32.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PBH    POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $12.14

Goldman Sachs rates ((PBH)) as Buy (1) –

After a meeting with Pointsbet Holdings, Goldman Sachs came away incrementally more confident in the company’s US market execution and positioning.

The broker highlights that management sees the US market over the medium term as supportive for seven or eight good-sized operators.  The company remains "absolutely keen" to push for a license in New York.

The analyst's Buy rating and target price of $17.20 are unchanged.

This report was published on June 21, 2021.

Target price is $17.20 Current Price is $12.14 Difference: $5.06
If PBH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1462.65.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2207.27.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PWR    PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Overnight Price: $3.50

Moelis rates ((PWR)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (-1) –

Moelis initiates coverage on Peter Warren Automotive with a Buy rating, and a target price of $4.25, which implies a 17.8% total return to the broker's valuation over the next 12 months. 

Peter Warren is an operator of 17 dealerships representing 27 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in NSW and QLD.

Key short-term drivers of growth Moelis has identified include abnormally strong margins until at least the end of calendar year 2021. 

In the short to medium term, Moelis believes Peter Warren can internalise its two Toyota dealerships that are currently run by the family: Which the broker expects to generate around 9.4% upside to calendar year 2021 consensus estimates.

Given its strong relationship with OEMs and its balance sheet position, the broker also believes Peter Warren is well placed to participate in industry consolidation over the longer term.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $0.75
If PWR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.40.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.58.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $7.02

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) –

Jarden has initiated on the oil and gas sector and provided detail on a number of companies as they address rising investor concerns about the role of fossil fuels as a future energy.

While Santos has been the energy sector favourite in recent years, Jarden's view is that the stock is trading at significant premium to valuation. The company is preparing to invest as much as US$8.5bn over the next five years and this growth phase will impact the free cash flow enjoyed in recent years. 

Jarden notes Santos has been the most proactive in discussing its emission reduction, abatement and offset plans, with the company's Moomba CCS project expected to play a role in a 1m tonne per annum emission reduction.

Santos is Jarden's third prefered large cap stock pick for the sector. Jarden initiates with a Sell rating and a target price of $5.65.

This report was published on June 17, 2021.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: minus $1.37 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.96, suggesting upside of 13.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.81 cents and EPS of 35.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.54 cents and EPS of 44.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.4, implying annual growth of 15.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXY    SENEX ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $3.39

Jarden rates ((SXY)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Jarden has initiated on the oil and gas sector and provided detail on a number of companies as they address rising investor concerns about the role of fossil fuels as a future energy. 

Senex Energy is a standout for Jarden as it looks to execute on it's next round of Queensland coal seam gas developments. According to Jarden this focus offers a pipeline of value-accretive, relatively low-risk growth options. 

Following the divestment of its Cooper Basin assets, Senex is now a pure Queensland coal seam gas company. Senex has outlined a 10m barrels of oil equivalent stretch target by FY25 which the broker views as achievable. 

Senex is yet to outline emissions reductions, but Jarden notes its recent divestment should reduce previously reported emissions. 

Senex Energy is Jarden's top small cap stock pick for the sector. Jarden initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $4.10. 

This report was published on June 17, 2021.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.39 Difference: $0.71
If SXY meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 14.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 18.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 138.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYD    SYDNEY AIRPORT

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $7.91

Jarden rates ((SYD)) as Sell (5) –

May traffic statistics revealed domestic passengers returned to 60.8% of their 2019 level, but were -9.5% down month-on-month. Jarden currently expects FY21 domestic passengers could return to around 78% of 2019 levels.

Meanwhile, international traffic continued to show minor improvements resulting from the travel bubble with New Zealand, explains the analyst. Jarden maintains its Sell rating and $4.90 target price.

The broker reiterates a cautious view that there are multiple uncertainties between FY21 and FY23. It's considered these could challenge the international recovery, and hence Sydney Airport's financial performance.

This report was published on June 18, 2021.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $7.91 Difference: minus $3.01 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.21, suggesting upside of 3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 202.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.70 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 343.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 208.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TRJ    TRAJAN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Overnight Price: $2.48

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TRJ)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage of Trajan Group Holdings with a Buy rating, and a target price of $2.86.

A Melbourne-based developer and manufacturer of analytical science instruments, devices, and solutions, Trajan's mission is to deliver value and impact through collaboration and agile commercial partnerships, developing leading technologies to deliver breakthrough analytical solutions to the world, the report explains.

Trajan listed on the ASX in June (last month) and expects part of the IPO funding to go toward two more acquisitions that it estimates could deliver an additional circa $45m in annual revenue.

Canaccord expects these acquisitions to make a partial contribution in FY22.

The broker thinks there will be potential valuation upside in gross margin uplift from investing in manufacturing infrastructure, smaller tuck-in acquisitions not reliant on IPO funding, and the commercialisation of new product opportunities sourced from historical R&D investment.

This report was issued on June 22, 2021.

Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.38
If TRJ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 63.59.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UWL    UNITI GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.38

Canaccord Genuity rates ((UWL)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity believes positive market dynamics for Uniti Group are likely to help see the company's contracted development pipeline of 200,000-plus premises for future fibre deployment potentially grow from that reported at first half FY21.

Canaccord also expects second half FY21 earnings to benefit from a high level of operations efficiency that the broker forecasts will result in improved near-term earnings.

The broker is now forecasting FY21 underlying earnings of $124.1m (up 6%), and face value FY21 earnings of $90.3m (up 2%), while FY22 earnings increase to $142.5m (up 8%).

Canaccord's upgrades, largely driven by higher margin expectations, reflect a high level of operational efficiency currently, which the broker expects to continue into FY22.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target rises to $3.70 from $2.80.

This report was published on June 23, 2021.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.32
If UWL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.89.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.48.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VCX    VICINITY CENTRES

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.52

Goldman Sachs rates ((VCX)) as Buy (1) –

Vicinity Centres' June-21 preliminary revaluations led to a total net valuation decline of -1.2% (-$164m) with its portfolio cap rate remaining unchanged at 5.49%.

Given that the bulk of the declines were seen in the CBD assets, Goldman Sachs believes the market will view the June valuation announcement as a positive for Vicinity.

With the environment remaining uncertain and challenging due to the prolonged impact from covid, Goldman Sachs believes CBD asset valuations will remain a key focus for investors.

Based on the broker's estimates, the market was already implying negative devaluations of -22% for the Vicinity portfolio and an implied cap rate of 7.0% (versus 5.49% book).

While a plateauing of asset valuations was expected, the broker would expect the performance of these assets to bounce back as CBD foot traffic returns – which may lead to positive revaluations.

The Buy rating and target price of $1.94 are retained. 

This report was published on June 21, 2021. 

Target price is $1.94 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.42
If VCX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting upside of 7.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.4, implying annual growth of 9.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGX    WESTGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.93

Canaccord Genuity rates ((WGX)) as Buy (1) –

Due to the availability of operational personnel, haulage constraints, weather conditions and mine plan sequencing issues, Westgold Resources has flagged that FY21 production is now expected to be between 245–250koz at all-in costs (AISC) of $1,460-1,560/oz.

This sits against the original FY21 guidance of 270-300koz at an AISC of A $1,460-1,560/oz.

As a result, Canaccord Genuity has lowered the price target to $2.35 from $2.55.

While Canaccord maintains a Buy recommendation based on valuation, the broker continues to have a cautious investment approach to Westgold with conviction contingent on consistent production delivery in line with market expectations.

This report was issued June 21, 2021.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.42
If WGX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.72.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.39.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL    WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $22.76

Jarden rates ((WPL)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden has initiated on the oil and gas sector and provided detail on a number of companies as they address rising investor concerns about the role of fossil fuels as a future energy. Investors are increasingly placing pressure on oil and gas companies to provide colour as to how they will manage the transition away from hydrocarbons.

It is Jarden's view that investor pressure will force the market to accept that a timeline to net zero emissions is inevitable and the conversation will shift to finding tangible steps to achieve this outcome, and the cost of achieving zero emissions on a more compressed timeframe.

Jarden notes value in Woodside Petroleum, but highlights the company faces a challenging year as it finalises costs for the proposed Scarborough LNG project with capital expenditure for the development potentially higher than market expectations.

Woodside has also provided the most detail about its emission activities and target, with short, medium, and long-term targets already in place. 

Woodside is Jarden's second preferred large cap stock pick for the sector. Jarden initiates with an Underweight rating and a target price of $23.10.

This report was published on June 17, 2021.

Target price is $23.10 Current Price is $22.76 Difference: $0.34
If WPL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.33, suggesting upside of 20.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 108.06 cents and EPS of 175.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 100.05 cents and EPS of 197.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 173.0, implying annual growth of -7.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

As part of emerging new trends overseas, The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition also includes providers of sponsored research. Readers should bear in mind, sponsored research, while not necessarily of lower quality, has the embedded complication that the company that is the subject of the research has paid for this research. Providers of sponsored research that can potentially be included in this Report are Breakaway Research, Edison Investment Research, Independent Investment Research, NDF Research, Pitt Street Research, and TMT Analytics.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

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