Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 06, 2021

Daily Market Reports | Jul 06 2021

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALU   AX1   AZJ   CRN   DOC   EHL   EXP   FDV   FLT   GNC (2)   IPH   JHC   JRV   MAH   MND   MNF   NCK   NSR   NWH   PLT   PMV   RMD   SCP   SUL   TRS   TWE   WHC  

EXP    EXPERIENCE CO LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism - Overnight Price: $0.30

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EXP)) as Buy (1) -

Taking into consideration Experience Co's recent acquisitions as well as continuing international border closures, Canaccord Genuity updates forecasts on the company.

The broker is now forecasting underlying earnings for FY22 of $8.6m, down from $10.8m, and for FY23 of $18.9m, down from 19.5m. 

Canaccord Genuity is still guiding to full volume recovery by FY24, but notes that the company has proved its ability to activate local catchments and operate profitably from a domestic market. The broker is confident Experience Co will be able to execute strong earnings over the next three years, and build to levels exceeding FY19.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $0.32 from $0.25.

This report was published on June 10, 2021.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.02
If EXP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FDV    FRONTIER DIGITAL VENTURES LIMITED

Online media & mobile platforms - Overnight Price: $1.43

Bell Potter rates ((FDV)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

After increasing the target price to $1.72 from $1.70 to reflect Frontier Digital Ventures Ltd's increased ownership in South American property portal, Infocasas -from 51% to 100%- Bell Potter has upgraded the company to a Buy from a Hold.

The broker sees this portfolio optimisation as a move to further expand on an already solid growth platform for FY21.

This report was published on June 10, 2021.

Target price is $1.72 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.29
If FDV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 62.17.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 476.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism - Overnight Price: $15.75

Jarden rates ((FLT)) as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

Jarden initiates coverage on Flight Centre Travel Group with a Neutral rating and a price target of $16.10.

The broker believes the medium-term outlook from both an earnings and return on investment capital potential is higher today than it was pre-covid.

With near-term earnings likely to be volatile and hard to forecast, the broker believes consensus is too optimistic, and will remain Neutral until consensus recalibrates.

Jarden believes the next catalyst should be signs of travel bubbles through FY22.

The broker is looking for clarity over improving margin outlook, particularly with respect to airline commissions, and Australia beginning to reopen borders.

This report was issued June 9, 2021.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: $0.35
If FLT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.97, suggesting upside of 7.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 186.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -176.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 82.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -18.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is -0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of -0.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC    GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture - Overnight Price: $5.13

Bell Potter rates ((GNC)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

To reflect the high likelihood a seasonal peak in earnings is close to being reached, Bell Potter has downgraded GrainCorp to a Hold from a Buy.

To reflect the application of a lower multiple to through-the-cycle earnings, on the view the market is now de-rating earnings and no longer responsive to earnings upgrades at the perceived seasonal peak in earnings, Bell Potter has lowered the target price to $5.50 from $6.20.

Despite a record June crop forecast, Bell Potter notes historically the June report has proven the least accurate of the ABARES estimates, with a range of 69%-188% on variability since 2010.

The broker has upgraded net profit forecasts by 2% in FY22 and 4% in FY23, with the latter reflecting a higher assumed carryout.

This report was issued June 9, 2021.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.37
If GNC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 23.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 43.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 48.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 48.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of -3.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((GNC)) as Market Weight (3) -

After adjusting for non-core crops and adding in a nominal summer crop, the ABARES forecast implies an FY22 east coast crop volume at 22.0Mt, compared to the 10-year historical average at 18.5Mt and Wilsons' current FY22 forecast at 20.0Mt.

Given it remains very early in the season to forecast yield, the broker believes the area forecast is of particular interest.

Wilsons notes ABARES forecast at 10.8Mha is actually above last year, which delivered a record crop and 14% above the 10-year historical average at 9.5Mha.

Wilsons' market-weight rating and price target of $5.36 are both unchanged but currently under review.

This report was published on June 8, 2021.

Target price is $5.36 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.23
If GNC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 23.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 42.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 48.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 38.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of -3.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


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