Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 04, 2021

Daily Market Reports | May 04 2021

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALU   ANP   APC   APE   APT   ASG   COE   CRN   ERD   EXP   GCY   GOR   HDN   LBY   OFX   OLL   SXY (2)   TPW (3)   WES (2)   WOW  

ALU    ALTIUM LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment - Overnight Price: $28.59

Bell Potter rates ((ALU)) as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Based on what it sees as increased risk of a miss in the FY21 revenue guidance, Bell Potter has reduced Altium's price target to $27.50 from $28.50.

Given that this is an 8% discount to the share price, the broker’s recommendation on Altium has been downgraded to Sell from Hold.

Also contributing to the broker’s downgrade were perceived risks associated with Altium’s a shift to cloud, and industry transformation which Altium is attempting to drive by creating market dominance in its current key market of electronic design.

Despite the negative short term impact of discounting the price of a term license for its Altium Designer (AD) software by -50% in the first year, there is no change in Bell Potter’s forecasts.

The broker’s FY21 revenue forecast of US$175m (excludes TASKING) is US$5m below the low end of the guidance range.

This report was published on April 20, 2021.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $28.59 Difference: minus $1.09 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.90, suggesting upside of 18.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 50.60 cents and EPS of 42.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 65.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 54.71 cents and EPS of 50.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.6, implying annual growth of 20.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANP    ANTISENSE THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences - Overnight Price: $0.19

Wilsons rates ((ANP)) as Overweight (1) -

Having realised a 200%-plus capital return increase since December, Wilsons reminds investors of the further potential upside within the next 12 months for Antisense Therapeutics, specifically in relation to their European Phase IIb trial campaign in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD).

Despite several notable calendar year 2021 setbacks within the sector highlighted by Wilsons last month, the broker continues to view Antisense’s ATL1102 as well placed within the competitive pipeline given the few players actively targeting non-ambulant, wheelchair bound, DMD patients (which comprise 50% of the DMD population).

Commenting on ATL1102, Wilsons notes, pivotal status would mean that ATL1102 may be considered for marketing authorisation following this upcoming EU Phase IIb trial, as opposed to requiring a follow- on Phase III.

The Overweight rating and $0.57 target are maintained.

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.38
If ANP meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 200% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.60.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APC    AUSTRALIAN POTASH LIMITED

Agriculture - Overnight Price: $0.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APC)) as Speculative Buy (1) -

The completion of the front-end engineering design work for Australian Potash Limited's Lake Wells development has validated the technical and commercial viability of the project according to Canaccord. 

Upfront capital has increased to $292m from $208m, which the broker attributes to an increase in production and the inclusion of a granulation and bagging plant to produce premium product. 

Operating costs of the Lake Wells development are projected at $358 per tonne for 170 thousand tonnes per annum over the life of the mine, placing cash costs in the lower quartile of the global industry, according to the broker. 

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of $0.30 are retained. 

This report was published on April 21, 2021.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.13
If APC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


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