Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 17, 2021

Daily Market Reports | Feb 17 2021

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALC   AZJ   BVS   CAT   CNI   CQR   EHL (3)   GNG   GPT   IPH   JBH   KMD   MND   MP1 (2)   OPY   PPS (3)   VOC  

ALC    ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services - Overnight Price: $0.21

Bell Potter rates ((ALC)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has initiated coverage on Alcidion Group with a Buy rating and a price target of 28c.

Alcidion is a healthcare IT company aimed at improving patient care and operational efficiency in hospitals and healthcare systems.

The product offering includes AI-driven clinical decision support tools complete with active patient monitoring and back-end clinical workflow and patient flow.

The broker highlights sales growth has been impressive over the last 2 years, citing Australia and New Zealand as great examples.

The group's long term contracts provide a predictable largely recurring revenue base, adds Bell Potter, with upside risk in existing geographies and into new markets.

This report was published on February 11, 2021.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.07
If ALC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 105.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 210.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ    AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics - Overnight Price: $4.07

Jarden rates ((AZJ)) as Move to Overweight from Neutral (2) -

Characterised by weaker performance from Coal, but better earnings from Bulk, Aurizon Holdings reported 1H21 underlying earnings (EBIT) of $454m, ahead of Jarden's ($423m) and consensus forecast of $416m.

Network earnings were boosted by Wiggins Island Rail Project (WIRP) 'catch-up' payments which are expected to contribute net $40m of 'one-off' benefits to earnings (EBIT) in FY21.

To reflect the WIRP benefits, and uplift in Bulk earnings (but lower Coal earnings with volumes down -4.2% in 1H21 to 102mt.) Jarden has upgraded its FY21 EPS forecast by around 8%.

Due to the increased contribution from the Bulk business, Jarden is forecasting FY21 underlying earnings (EBIT) of $890m, at the mid-point of management's guidance range of $870m - $910m.

With the share price lower and concerns about the earnings outlook removed, Jarden sees near-term value and has raised its rating to Overweight from Neutral, with its target price increasing to $4.30 from $4.15.

This report was first issued February 15, 2021.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.23
If AZJ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 17.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 1.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 8.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BVS    BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments - Overnight Price: $2.88

Goldman Sachs rates ((BVS)) as Buy (1) -

Goldman Sachs has incorporated Bravura Solutions' acquisition of Delta Financial Systems in its model. While the sales pipeline remains strong, Goldman Sachs believes Bravura will likely continue to be impacted by covid, especially in the UK.

The broker takes Bravura Solutions to be well-positioned due to its strong market position in existing offerings and a high degree of recurring revenues along with an emerging microservices ecosystem strategy that should increase the company's scope and velocity of sales.

Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating with the target falling to $4.20 from $4.50.

This report was published on February 4, 2021.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $1.32
If BVS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAT    CATAPULT GROUP INTERNATIONAL LTD

Medical Equipment & Devices - Overnight Price: $1.88

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CAT)) as Buy (1) -

Catapult Group International will be releasing its first-half results on 24 February. Also to note is the group intends to change its reporting date to a March year-end and change its reporting currency to USD from AUD.

Canaccord Genuity deems these changes to be sound given more than 70% of Catapult's new sales/renewals are generated between May-August and more than 70% of its revenue is derived in USD.

Over the last six months, as opposed to a stellar rally in stocks that are exposed to a vaccine-led recovery, the group has lagged given the lack of immediate catalysts coupled with enterprise sales to sporting organisations considered late-cycle.

While Catapult has not issued any revenue or operating income guidance, the group expects to be cash-flow positive in FY21.

Buy rating with a target price of $2.45.

This report was published on February 4, 2021.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.57
If CAT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 41.59.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 52.08.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


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