Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 26, 2020

This story features BEGA CHEESE LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BGA

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

BGA   BSL   CCL   CSL   DMP   ELO (2)   GEM   HRL   HVN   IPH   IRI   JBH   JLG (2)   KGN   MSB   NHC   NUF   OPY   PKS   SGM   TNK   WES  

BGA    BEGA CHEESE LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $4.50

Bell Potter rates ((BGA)) as Hold (3) –

Bega Cheese is engaged in the processing, manufacturing and distribution of dairy and associated products to both Australian and international markets.

Bell Potter notes a material softening in skim milk powder (SMP) returns after the first half, falling circa -18% from February 2020 levels. The farmgate prices (FMP) by the company are higher than expected by the broker.

Milk volume intake in FY20 is expected to rise by 8% for the company. Headwinds in the form of low SMP returns and strong competition for milk will define FY21 and the broker has downgraded net profit for each of FY20-22.

Bell Potter retains its Hold rating with target price unchanged at $4.85.

This report was published on June 10, 2020.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.35
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.46.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.81.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $11.04

Goldman Sachs rates ((BSL)) as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) –

A broad pro-cyclical rally led by the restart of economic activity has improved the outlook for the steel sector. Goldman Sachs expects an improvement over the coming months with the first half of FY21 looking materially better than assumed.

Goldman Sachs has upgraded its rating on BlueScope Steel to Buy from Neutral with target price increasing to $14.95 from $10.25.

This report was published on June 8, 2020.

Target price is $14.95 Current Price is $11.04 Difference: $3.91
If BSL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.80, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 52.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of -67.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 58.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.9, implying annual growth of 8.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCL    COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $8.60

Goldman Sachs rates ((CCL)) as Neutral (3) –

Coca Cola Amatil remains concerned about the outlook for the economy, especially around October with the end of interest/debt repayment holidays.

The impact on demand from social distancing is a cause for worry too. While the recession remains a risk, Goldman Sachs notes the risk stemming from the covid-19 induced shutdown was more severe for the group.

While brand Coca-Cola managed well during the downturn, the company's MOJO brand of Kombucha test struggled as consumers stayed away from experimentation. Going forward, the broker considers most of the group’s products to be affordable and perform relatively well.

The broker suggests now is a good time for the group to focus on resetting its cost base and retains its Neutral rating with a target price of $9.50.

This report was published on June 12, 2020.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: $0.9
If CCL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.38, suggesting upside of 8.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.1, implying annual growth of -16.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of 14.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $294.00

Goldman Sachs rates ((CSL)) as Buy (1) –

CSL has invoked the option to acquire Vitaeris, a clinical-stage biotech focused on developing a treatment for rejection of solid organ kidney transplant patients.

Goldman Sachs notes while the acquisition cost is immaterial for FY20, CSL will incur additional R&D expenditure for FY21 of -$30-50m to complete the phase 3 study.

This study evaluates the interaction of an antibody clazakizumab with an inflammatory signaling molecule that plays an important role in long term rejection of kidney transplants.

The broker reminds investors that CSL’s most compelling opportunities lie within the transplant domain.

Goldman Sachs retains its Buy rating with a target price of $336.

This report was published on June 9, 2020.

Target price is $336.00 Current Price is $294.00 Difference: $42
If CSL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $311.67, suggesting upside of 7.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 675.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 671.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 297.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 787.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 743.6, implying annual growth of 10.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 335.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $67.23

Goldman Sachs rates ((DMP)) as Buy (1) –

Domino’s Pizza Enterprises provided an update that notes strong delivery sales in ANZ and Europe while carry-out sales, slower than others, has shown recovery with the easing of lock-downs.

Store roll-outs were mostly paused during March and April with the exception of Japan which not only saw strong growth in delivery and carry out sales, but even store roll-outs, with 27 new stores added half year-till-date.

Even so, Goldman Sachs anticipates a flat second half operating income. FY21 is expected to see growth driven by store sales and new store additions, although FX will likely play spoilsport. No changes by the broker to forecasts for FY20 and FY21.

The broker maintains its Buy rating with its target price increased to $67.70 from $62.60.

This report was published on June 10, 2020.

Target price is $67.70 Current Price is $67.23 Difference: $0.47
If DMP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.33, suggesting downside of -16.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 117.00 cents and EPS of 167.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 173.3, implying annual growth of 27.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 110.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 205.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.1, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 138.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELO    ELMO SOFTWARE LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $7.20

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ELO)) as Buy (1) –

On Canaccord Genuity's assessment, Elmo Software is the fastest growing and most well-capitalised HR tech company in the region.

The company recently reinstated its annual recurring revenue (ARR) guidance for FY20 to between $55-$55m and has also upgraded the operating income guidance to between -$2.5-$4.5m.

Canaccord Genuity expects the company to go for acquisitions, especially after having raised capital to enhance its balance sheet position.

Earnings forecasts have been upgraded for FY20-22, while the broker still sees further upside potential, with the procurement activity returning to normal.

Canaccord Genuity maintains its Buy rating with the target price increased to $8.20 from $6.75.

This report was published on June 11, 2020.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $1
If ELO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 32.88.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 44.44.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((ELO)) as Market Weight (3) –

Elmo software has guided towards FY20 annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $55-$57m with its operating loss improving to -$2.5-$4.5m.

Wilsons believes this to be the impact of cost-saving measures taken during the last few months along with a pickup in business activity post-covid-19 disruptions.

The broker has revised its operating loss estimate for FY20 to -$3.5m from -$5.1m. Wilsons also notes the company has a war chest of circa $80m reserved for M&A activity and expects potential M&A activity in ANZ/UK.

The other catalyst is the monetisation of ELMO Connect in the second quarter of FY21. Wilsons maintains its Market Weight rating with a target price of $6.40.

This report was published on June 10, 2020.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If ELO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.51.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 36.18.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GEM    G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $0.89

Wilsons rates ((GEM)) as Market Weight (3) –

Child Care Subsidy will resume on July 13 with benefits for both families and centres to support occupancy and underwrite costs in the near term.

Wilsons notes strong improvement in metrics since April and the company expects booked occupancy to be impacted by parents returning to work and students returning to school and unemployment rates.

The broker makes no changes to forecasts with operating income forecasted at $13.8m and $5.7m for FY20 and FY21.

Wilsons retains its Market weight rating with a target price of $1.15.

This report was published on June 9, 2020.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.26
If GEM meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 37.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 148.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.7, implying annual growth of -72.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 890.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of 97.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HRL    HRL HOLDINGS LTD

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.12

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HRL)) as Hold (3) –

HRL Holdings Ltd was earlier known as Hot Rock Limited. The company is an environmental and laboratory services provider with operations in Australia and New Zealand.

Services include HAZMAT services, food and environmental laboratory services and geotechnical services. HRL Holdings reinstated its FY20 operating income guidance of $5.5-$5.8m with New Zealand fully opened since April end.

The guidance is also materially ahead of Canaccord Genuity’s estimated $4.5m as the broker had based its estimates on the assumptions of an eight-week lockdown (which ended in just four weeks).

Canaccord Genuity notes the company will get wage subsidies worth circa $1.4m for the June quarter, salary reduction by the board and company management, and better than expected second-half earnings.

The broker has reduced its FY20 net debt estimate to -$2.5m from -$3.4m on the expectations of a better year but predicts flat FY21 operating income due to high uncertainty.

Earnings forecasts have increased for FY20, while reduced for FY21 due to high economic uncertainty. Canaccord Genuity retains its Hold rating with its target price unchanged at $0.15 per share.

This report was published on June 11, 2020.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.03
If HRL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.25.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.24.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN    HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $3.51

Goldman Sachs rates ((HVN)) as Buy (1) –

Harvey Norman's trading update till May 31 (year to date) revealed stronger than expected sales. Store closures were much shorter than expected by Goldman Sachs, while online sales were much stronger than anticipated although more details are awaited on this.

The board has announced a special dividend as an indication of the group’s comfort level when it comes to balance sheet and cash flows.

Earnings forecast revised upwards significantly by the broker for FY20-21. Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating with a target price of $4.05.

This report was published on June 11, 2020.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.54
If HVN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.98, suggesting upside of 11.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of -6.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of -18.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $7.48

Goldman Sachs rates ((IPH)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs considers IPH well placed to grow its earnings through both organic and inorganic means, despite a weakening economic background.

The company has announced the potential acquisition of Baldwins Intellectual Property by its subsidiary AJ Park for NZ$7.9m, funded by a mix of cash and scrip.

The broker expects more acquisitions in the short to medium term.

Goldman Sachs cuts its FY20-22 earnings forecasts to cater to the soft post-covid-19 economic environment as while the business is defensive as a whole, patent and trademark filings are economically sensitive, point out the analysts.

Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating with target price reducing to $9.35.

This report was published on June 11, 2020.

Target price is $9.35 Current Price is $7.48 Difference: $1.87
If IPH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.78.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.18.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IRI    INTEGRATED RESEARCH LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $3.65

Bell Potter rates ((IRI)) as Buy (1) –

Integrated Research provides performance management software for business-critical computing environments. The core product of the company is Prognosis which provides performance management, diagnostics and insight for systems.

The company's user base includes major stock exchanges, banks and telecommunication companies.

In April, Bell Potter highlighted the company may benefit from the current environment given the sudden shift to work from home along with the increasing shift towards the digital workplace.

March saw the announcement of the company’s largest-ever contract with JP Morgan Chase worth US$10m.

The broker believes the company will announce a strong second half with a strong FY20 overall. Guidance for FY20 is expected by early to mid-July and Bell Potter expects a net profit of $24m.

No changes by Bell Potter in its forecasts for FY20, while it expects strong revenue and net profit in FY21-22.

Bell Potter retains its Buy with target price increasing to $4.25 from $3.50.

This report was published on June 9, 2020.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.6
If IRI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.26.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.40.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $41.51

Goldman Sachs rates ((JBH)) as Neutral (3) –

JB Hi-Fi’s trading update till May 31^st shows sales growth of 20% and 23.5% for both JBH Australia and The Good Guys while sales fell by -19.3% for JBH New Zealand driven by store closures.

Company management has guided towards FY20 net profit between $300-$305m while implying sales growth of 10.8% (year on year).

Net profit estimates have been revised upwards by Goldman Sachs for FY20-21. The broker maintains its Neutral rating with a target price of $39.30.

This report was published on June 11, 2020.

Target price is $39.30 Current Price is $41.51 Difference: minus $2.21 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $40.53, suggesting downside of -3.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 190.00 cents and EPS of 286.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 275.5, implying annual growth of 26.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 157.00 cents and EPS of 240.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 229.1, implying annual growth of -16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 138.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JLG    JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $2.35

Canaccord Genuity rates ((JLG)) as Buy (1) –

Division wise, Johns Lyng Group's core insurance building and restoration services (IB&RS) division is expected to benefit from record levels of job registrations.

This has led the group to upgrade its FY20 revenue guidance to $470m from $420m with operating income pegged at $39m, in-line with Canaccord Genuity’s estimates.

The commercial building services division has been adversely impacted by the lock-downs and Canaccord Genuity has reduced FY20 divisional operating income by -24%, while the division for commercial construction services is forecasted to earn operating income of $1.1m (unchanged) in FY20.

The broker also highlights the commercial construction division, considered an essential service during the pandemic, may also benefit from the Victorian State government’s building works package of $2.7bn.

The current record level of job registrations implies the group has work in hand till at least Christmas, reports the broker.

Canaccord Genuity reiterates its Buy rating with the target price increased to $2.83 from $2.75.

This report was published on June 11, 2020.

Target price is $2.83 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.48
If JLG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.57.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.11.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((JLG)) as Buy (1) –

Johns Lyng Group is a building services company involved in insurance building and restoration services, commercial building services and commercial construction. 

The group has upgraded FY20 guidance with revenue pegged at $470m with an operating income of $39m, primarily driven by an increase in catastrophic revenue.

Goldman Sachs finds the group’s growth can be attributed to a record number of new jobs after six catastrophic events during the financial year and strong operational performance in business as usual (BAU) activity.

The group has highlighted its core Insurance Building and Restoration Services (IBRS) segment continues to do well. The strong increase in registration volumes continuing into May 2020 will underpin volume growth into FY21, expects the broker.

Earnings forecasts have been increased for FY20-22. Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating with a target price of $3.06.

This report was published on June 11, 2020.

Target price is $3.06 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.71
If JLG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.57.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.38.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KGN    KOGAN.COM LTD

Retailing – Overnight Price: $14.98

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KGN)) as Buy (1) –

Kogan.com released a trading update showing strong growth continuing into May.

The company reported fourth-quarter to date operating income growing by more than 200% while gross profit increased by more than 130%. Financial year to date operating income has grown by more than 50%.

Canaccord Genuity has upgraded earnings forecasts for FY20-22. The broker notes while the company holds a small share of the market, it certainly has a price advantage along with having the lowest cost of doing business ratio.

The broker notes the company recently added Samsung and a number of other brands to its website through direct partner agreements which potentially signals towards a new wave of suppliers/brands joining the platform.

Canaccord Genuity retains its Buy recommendation with its target price increased to $14 from $11.20.

This report was published on June 5, 2020.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $14.98 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.32.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.42.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MSB    MESOBLAST LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $3.25

Bell Potter rates ((MSB)) as Buy (1) –

Mesoblast is a biotechnology company commercialising the therapeutic use of a type of adult stem cells – mesenchymal lineage cells.

The company’s technology allows these cells to be extracted from the bone marrow of donors and administered to patients that are not related to the donor. The company boasts of the most diversified pipelines and is one of Bell Potter’s top picks.

After the recent capital raising, the company has cash reserves of about US$147m supplemented by existing debt facilities, notes Bell Potter.

The broker expects the launch of Ryoncil for pediatric SraGvHD in the fourth quarter of 2020 in the US, subject to the FDA’s approval.

Also, phase 3 trial for Revascor (for advanced heart failure) is expected to report results in mid-2020 as is the phase 3 trial for MPC-06-ID (for chronic low back pain).

Bell Potter maintains its Buy rating with the target price slightly increased to $5.90 from $5.80.

This report was published on June 9, 2020.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $2.65
If MSB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 22.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.18.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.64.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC    NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $1.35

Wilsons rates ((NHC)) as Overweight (1) –

New Hope Corp is involved in the exploration, development, production and processing of coal, oil and gas. The company has business interests spanning coal mining, port operation, oil, agriculture, innovative technologies and investment.

Wilsons observes the legal battle over the New Acland mine expansion continues, with no timeframe for the High Court hearing.

If the company were to lose, the entire approval process will have to be restarted (began in 2007), comments the broker. Also, with state elections due in October, this is likely to remain a prominent issue.

The broker has removed the New Acland mine from its net present value calculations due to the uncertainty surrounding the issue.

Wilsons has reduced FY20 coal price forecast to US$65/t from US$67.5/t due to the ongoing thermal weakness, with operating income reducing to $326m from $345m.

The broker retains its Overweight rating with the target price reduced to $2.50 from $3.30.

This report was published on June 9, 2020.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $1.15
If NHC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting upside of 14.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.90 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of -37.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.60 cents and EPS of 13.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of -36.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF    NUFARM LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $4.18

Goldman Sachs rates ((NUF)) as Buy (1) –

Nufarm’s trading update for the third quarter proved mostly in line with peers.

Goldman Sachs is concerned about the company’s fourth-quarter commentary, which anticipates headwinds again for its European business driven by covid-19 led disruptions and dry weather.

As a result, the broker has downgraded FY20 operating income estimates by -10%, offset somewhat by a higher contribution from Australia in the second half.

The broker has also reduced operating income estimates for FY21 and FY22 by -1% each. Goldman Sachs reiterates its Buy recommendation with a target price of $6.40.

This report was published on June 9, 2020.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $2.22
If NUF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting upside of 30.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 139.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OPY    OPENPAY GROUP LTD

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $2.25

Shaw and Partners rates ((OPY)) as Buy (1) –

Openpay is a player in the buy now pay later (BNPL) category but unlike Afterpay which targets the retail sector, Openpay is mainly focused on healthcare, automotive and home improvement.

Outside of Australia and New Zealand, the company has forayed into the UK. Recently, the company secured debt funding of $25m from the UK.

Shaw and Partners points out May saw strong growth with active customers growing by 131% year-on-year (yoy) to more than 293,000, while active merchants increased by 50% to 2,096 yoy.

The company recently entered the B2B segment through an agreement with Woolworths ((WOW)) for a SaaS payments solution providing end to end trade account management.

The broker highlights the company, instead of going down the same road as other BNPL players, has differentiated itself in a number of ways.

This includes focusing on the UK rather than the US, targeting an older demographic, developing B2B capability and a move towards online education (payment of school fees etc).

Shaw and Partners points out Openpay’s differentiated model ensures it is well placed for long term growth even though it may not be grabbing headlines like Afterpay. The current valuation is also attractive with the stock trading at quite a discount to its peers.

The broker maintains its Buy rating with a target price of $2.25.

This report was published on June 2, 2020.

Special Note: the broker lifted its price target to $3.25 on June 16, 2020.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0
If OPY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 42.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.31.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.04.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PKS    PKS HOLDINGS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.19

Shaw and Partners rates ((PKS)) as Buy (1) –

PKS Holdings is a healthcare technology company that provides a proprietary subscription-based service called RippleDown that automates decision-making within healthcare organizations.

The company recently acquired Pavilion Health, considered by Shaw and Partners to be a bold move by the software company given the pandemic. The broker notes this will generate a substantially larger base of recurring revenues and earnings.

Pavilion Health provides a number of solutions like auditing records, coding for billing and analysis and a risk tool for trend identification.

Shaw and Partners considers the company as one of the cheapest methods to gain access to software and healthcare earnings.

The broker retains its Buy rating with a target price of $0.34.

This report was published on June 12, 2020.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.15
If PKS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.83.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.56.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $7.81

Goldman Sachs rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

A broad pro-cyclical rally led by a broader restart of economic activity has also improved the outlook for the steel sector, reports Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs believes while Sims will be a beneficiary of the sector-wide re-rating, ferrous scrap demand is expected to remain muted.

The broker retains its Neutral rating on Sims with the target price increasing to $8.86 from $6.35.

This report was published on June 8, 2020.

Target price is $8.86 Current Price is $7.81 Difference: $1.05
If SGM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.82, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of minus 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 35.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -22.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNK    THINK CHILDCARE AND EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $0.85

Wilsons rates ((TNK)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

The current early Childhood and Care Relief Package will end on July 12 and switch back to the Child Care Subsidy aided by temporary relief packages to support occupancy and underwrite centre costs in the near term.

Think Childcare’s occupancy at 64% is in-line with pre-covid-19 levels of 63%, notes Wilsons. However, the broker expects this to decline once the relief package ends. 

The broker downgrades earnings forecasts but notes the company is well-capitalised, has a good strategy and attractive valuation metrics.

Wilsons upgrades Think Childcare’s rating to Overweight from Market Weight, despite the potential risk to earnings, with a target price of $1.20.

This report was published on June 12, 2020.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.35
If TNK meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 10.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.94.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.83.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES    WESFARMERS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $43.70

Goldman Sachs rates ((WES)) as Neutral (3) –

Wesfarmers’ trading update highlighted retails sales to be materially above prior trends. Both Bunnings and Officeworks seem to be emerging as direct beneficiaries of the covid-19 led shift to consumer spending.

Goldman Sachs expects this to continue, while also noting a better than expected macro outlook. Operating earnings forecasts revised upwards for FY20-21.

Goldman Sachs maintains its Neutral rating with a target price of $42.50.

This report was published on June 9, 2020.

Target price is $42.50 Current Price is $43.70 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $38.96, suggesting downside of -11.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 187.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.3, implying annual growth of -1.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 142.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 166.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.0, implying annual growth of -5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 145.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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