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Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Apr 27, 2020

Daily Market Reports | Apr 27 2020

This story features ADAIRS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ADH

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ADH (2)   ASB   BOT   BUB   CCX   COE   ELO (2)   EML   EXP   FPH   HRL (2)   INA   JAN   LCK   LYL   MND   MZZ   NAN   NEA   OTW   PBH   PPS   PRN   RFF   SGM   SHL   SHV   SNL   TNE   VHT   WZR  

ADH    ADAIRS LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $1.25

E.L. & C Baillieu rates ((ADH)) as Buy (1) –

Earnings guidance withdrawn for FY20 amidst covid-19 led uncertainty. For the first eleven weeks of the second half, the like-for-like sales have gone up 7.1%, with the recently acquired Mocka also delivering 18.1% sales growth during the period.

The company has cancelled the first half dividend of $0.07. This move would retain $11.8m but would not make investors happy, comments Baillieu. The broker notes supply is no longer an issue with weekly incoming inventory shipments.

With future trading uncertain, Baillieu has reduced fourth quarter of FY20 and first quarter of FY21 earnings contributions respectively. Overall. EPS forecasts have been reduced by -28% and -39% for FY20 and FY21 respectively.

The broker believes Adairs has a robust business model with strong cash generation and high returns on invested capital although high fixed costs and uncertain trading conditions have led to a reduction in the target price.

Buy retained with target price revised to $1.45 from $3.10.

The report was published on March 20, 2020.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.2
If ADH meets the E.L. & C Baillieu target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

E.L. & C Baillieu forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.93.

Forecast for FY21:

E.L. & C Baillieu forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 14.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.56.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Goldman Sachs rates ((ADH)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

Even with like-for-like sales of Adairs up 7.1% in the first eleven weeks of the second half and Mocka delivering 18.1% sales growth during the period, Goldman Sachs has lowered earnings estimates anticipating the impact of measures to contain covid-19.

Goldman Sachs considers the company’s balance sheet a cause for concern with the lockdown increasing total debt/operating earnings forecast to 3.3x in FY20.

The broker points out that the current underperformance is mostly macro driven. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy with target price at $0.70.

The report was published on March 24, 2020.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If ADH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.33.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.33.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASB    AUSTAL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies – Overnight Price: $2.93

Goldman Sachs rates ((ASB)) as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) –

Austal has underperformed the ASX 200 by -10%, observes Goldman Sachs, after reporting a strong first half in February. The broker highlights Austal is an engineering and construction company that builds ships instead of typical construction works.

The broker is optimistic about the company irrespective of lowering core estimates due to covid-19 related disruptions and sums up the positives: a defensive stream of income with 90% operating profit generated from the low-risk US subsidiary, plus a strong balance sheet with net cash of $95m.

The broker notes two upcoming catalysts- navy force structure assessment and the award of the US Navy FFG[x] program- for 2020.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral with target price at $3.73.

The report was published on March 17, 2020.

Target price is $3.73 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.8
If ASB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 40.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 19.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 8.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOT    BOTANIX PHARMACEUTICALS LTD

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.06

Bell Potter rates ((BOT)) as Buy (1) –

2020 is a crucial year for Botanix Pharmaceuticals, with two separate phase two trials lined up for treatment of atopic dermatitis and rosacea respectively, notes Bell Potter.

The broker reminds investors the company has recently called for a third phase two study. BTX1801 is a new formulation to be used as an antimicrobial against staphylococcus aureus and methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). Data released by the company show BTX1801 being effective even against mupirocin (antibiotic) resistant strains of staphylococcus aureus and MRSA.

This trial will be a stepping stone to a pivotal study in the US, comments the broker, while data from the atopic dermatitis trial will be the short-term driver.

Buy rating retained with target price at $0.25.

The report was published on March 16, 2020.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.19
If BOT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 317% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.33.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BUB    BUBS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $0.87

Bell Potter rates ((BUB)) as Buy (1) –

Bubs Australia’s recent update highlights measures to meet demand for infant formula products as well as inventory building as demand increases for A2M branded infant milk formula products, notes Bell Potter.

While the current demand may simply be a pull forward in revenues due to product hoarding, the broker acknowledges the boost this has given to near term revenues.

The earnings ceiling for the company is high, states Bell Potter, with signs of positive momentum in value being extracted from the milk pool.

The first half net cash is at circa $37m and even with a net circa -$11m in investment and working capital related outflows, the broker considers the company to be adequately funded.

Speculative Buy retained with target price at $0.75.

The report was published on March 20, 2020.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If BUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 58.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 435.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCX    CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LTD

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $1.90

E.L. & C Baillieu rates ((CCX)) as Buy (1) –

City Chic Collective's year-to-date (YTD) sales growth has increased 8.6% and while this is a solid result, the broker comments it does indicate a decrease from 11.3% achieved in the first half.

The comparable sales estimate for the third quarter is just over 3%, observes Baillieu and this decline is expected to continue till the first quarter of FY21.

With online sales being about 70% of total sales, possible store closures would not have a severe impact, notes the broker. Another positive is the resumption of stable supply from Chinese supply partners.

The broker considers the company well placed to deliver strong earnings growth in the medium term on the back of store network expansion, new categories addition and growth from online activities.

Baillieu has reduced EPS forecasts by -15%, -23% and -8% for FY20-22. Buy rating reiterated with target price reduced to $1.75 from $3.80.

The report was published on March 23, 2020.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the E.L. & C Baillieu target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

E.L. & C Baillieu forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.84.

Forecast for FY21:

E.L. & C Baillieu forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.76.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.41

Bell Potter rates ((COE)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

The fact that Cooper Energy is scaling up gas production while steadily reducing exposure to oil has not helped stem the fall in its share price which is down by -40% since the start of 2020, notes Bell Potter.

The broker is not worried and reminds investors that by mid-2021, 90% of the company’s sales would come from gas sold under fixed contracts.

With the oil price outlook worsening, the broker has downgraded earnings forecasts for FY20 and FY21 by -34% and -14%.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold with target price at $0.50.

The report was published on March 23, 2020.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.09
If COE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting upside of 31.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 68.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.5, implying annual growth of 483.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELO    ELMO SOFTWARE LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $5.86

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ELO)) as Buy (1) –

Due to covid-19, Elmo Software has lowered its revenue forecast for FY20 to $50-52m with operating loss estimated between -$4-6m. The company has recalled previous guidance for annual recurring revenue for the entire year, notes Canaccord Genuity.

Elmo Software anticipates a deferral in purchase by existing and prospective clients. Canaccord Genuity notes this is due to the major target segment- small-mid market- focusing on business continuity rather than overhauling existing HR management systems. The broker states that the company has not yet experienced customer churn.

The software company is focusing on increasing headcount, comments the broker, while forecasting recurring revenue breakeven to increase to $75m versus $56m previously.

Canaccord has reduced recurring revenue forecasts by -11%, -19% and -22% for FY20-22. Buy rating retained with target price at $6.75.

The report was published on March 18, 2020.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $5.86 Difference: $0.89
If ELO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.63.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 31.01.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((ELO)) as Sell (5) –

Elmo Software recently reduced revenue guidance by circa -6% to $50-52m. This is driven by delays in the procurement cycle by existing and new customers owing to the impact of covid-19, observes Wilsons.

Wilsons expects investments in staff would continue as planned while general and administration expenses would be curbed. The operating loss is now estimated to widen to -$4-6m for FY20.

Management views the purchase deferrals a transitory issue, with the situation normalising in about six months although with the possibility of bad debts and lower value client churn till then, states the broker.

The software company has a net cash balance of $71m (end of February) which is enough for the medium-term, predicts Wilsons, while also pointing to potential M&A activity. The broker is concerned about customer deferrals stretching into FY21.

Underweight rating reiterated with target price at $4.32.

The report was published on March 19, 2020.

Target price is $4.32 Current Price is $5.86 Difference: minus $1.54 (current price is over target).
If ELO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 26.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.11.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 22.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.40.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EML    EML PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $2.23

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EML)) as Buy (1) –

EML Payments has suspended previous FY20 operating profit guidance of $38.5-$42.5m. 65% of EML Payment’s gross profit comes from selling gift and incentive cards to shopping malls across Europe, UK and USA.

Canaccord Genuity reminds investors these malls which are being shut down due to covid-19 while 5% is derived from reloadable gaming accounts in Australia and UK, also likely impacted due to social distancing.

The broker expects the company to either breakeven or incur losses during the current trading period.

Overall, the broker is positive and comments that EML Payments is the largest gift and incentive card provider to shopping malls globally and would return to the previous levels in about 18-24 months.

In late 2019, EML Payments announced it would be acquiring Prepaid Financial Services, a white label payment and digital banking platform provider in Europe. The firm has been materially impacted due to strict lockdown laws, notes the broker, and there is concern regarding balance sheet risk if the acquisition moves forward.

Canaccord Genuity revises down operating profit forecasts by -32%, -41% and -23% for the three successive years. Buy rating retained with target price reduced to $3.5.

The report was published on March 19, 2020.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $1.27
If EML meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.73.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.23.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EXP    EXPERIENCE CO LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $0.10

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EXP)) as Buy (1) –

Operations of Experience Co have been indefinitely suspended. Canaccord Genuity notes the company has been de-levering with circa $18m asset sales to date and taking out complexity and costs. Clearly, comments the broker, the focus is on cash flow management.

The broker has updated the forecast assuming the following; a shut-down till September 2020 with the company standing down a majority of the workforce, putting on hold all asset sales and cash outflows funded by existing debt facilities.

Believing the recovery to start in FY21, the broker forecasts operating earnings of $11.9m with the business expected to get back to FY19 levels by FY23. The short-term theme involves cash burn of about -$10-$12m.

While retaining the current rating, the broker acknowledges execution and assumption risks. Buy retained with target price at $0.17, down from $0.27.

The report was published on March 25, 2020.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.07
If EXP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH    FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $26.32

Wilsons rates ((FPH)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare recently released a second earnings guidance upgrade, noting an increase in demand for nasal products which would drive long term adoption in adjacent clinical settings, notes Wilsons.

Although seemingly "expensive", with increased product demand, low-risk earnings and a healthy leverage ratio, the stock remains an attractive option, opines the broker.

The company has increased revenue guidance for FY20 to $1.24b while the net profit guidance is between $275-280m. This upgrade reflects the increased demand for humidification and nasal highflow devices, a weak NZ dollar and higher than expected sales in Homecare. The broker feels the demand uplift will create tailwinds for the second half, continuing in the first half of FY21.

The company is manufacturing critical healthcare equipment and, the broker expects, would be exempted from drastic containment measures taken up by countries involved in manufacturing.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight with target price at $28.41.

The report was published on March 18, 2020.

Target price is $28.41 Current Price is $26.32 Difference: $2.09
If FPH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.77 cents and EPS of 45.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 60.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 25.67 cents and EPS of 50.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.9, implying annual growth of 15.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HRL    HRL HOLDINGS LTD

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.09

Bell Potter rates ((HRL)) as Buy (1) –

With the New Zealand operations significantly impacted by the shutdown, HRL Holdings has withdrawn FY20 earnings guidance.

For the eight months till Feb 2020, the business was performing well, notes Bell Potter, with group revenues of $22m and operating earnings at $3.6m. This has now changed with the broker forecasting $3.1m in revenue and operating loss of -$0.3m for the fourth quarter.

The business would rebound in FY21, predicts the broker, adding that the outlook for food and environmental testing services remains strong.

Buy reiterated with target price at $0.13.

The report was published on March 26, 2020.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.04
If HRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.86.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Canaccord Genuity rates ((HRL)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

HRL Holdings has been impacted by the shut down in New Zealand, with 50% of the Analytica division and the entire Precise Consulting business shut down, notes Canaccord Genuity.

The broker believes the business is well funded to deal with disruptions till June 2020 and potentially beyond. Assuming an eight-week shutdown period in New Zealand and a subsequent four weeks to ramp up, the broker has revised down the FY20 and FY21 operating earnings forecasts to $5.4m and $7.6m respectively.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy with target price at $0.15.

The report was published on March 26, 2020.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.06
If HRL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.25.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 555.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.14.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INA    INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $3.57

Goldman Sachs rates ((INA)) as Buy (1) –

Although Ingenia Communities Group has withdrawn FY20 guidance in the face of the ongoing uncertainty, Goldman Sachs considers the business to be of high quality and likely to come out of the disruption strongly.

The points in the group’s favour include a strong balance sheet, adequate capitalisation and a significant permanent rental income base. The broker also considers the risk of a breach of debt covenant low.

With a sufficient annuity income and an attractive product offering, this is a good stock to hold during and post covid-19, opines Goldman Sachs. Buy retained with target price at $4.75.

The report was published on March 25, 2020.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $1.18
If INA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.79.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.79.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JAN    JANISON EDUCATION GROUP LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.30

Bell Potter rates ((JAN)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

The Janison Education Group announced Japan to be the latest addition to the Janison Insights platform. Also announced was a global partnership with D2L Corporation, a move that provides the group with an opportunity to leverage its existing IP and scale up the business, comments Bell Potter.

On the flip side, the Language & Testing Consultants (LTC) business has been impacted by postponement of the June CFA exam, leading the broker to reduce the second-half revenue estimate to $2.5m from $4m.

The overall operating earnings estimate for FY20 has also been downgraded to $4m from $4.5m. Forecasts for FY21 and FY22 remain unchanged. Bell Potter uses the pull-back in share price as an opportunity to upgrade the rating to Buy from Hold. Target price is $0.40.

The report was published on March 23, 2020.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.1
If JAN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 300.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LCK    LEIGH CREEK ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.10

State One Stockbroking rates ((LCK)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

With Leigh Creek Energy’s 2P reserves almost the same size as the entire Cooper basin, the company is now in Australia’s energy premiership, declares State One Stockbroking.

The broker finds while there is no guarantee of a successful JV deal, management at the company has indicated it is making significant progress on securing partners for the Leigh Creek Energy Project.

With onshore gas exploration and development in Victoria commencing, there would likely be a significant new source of gas for the east coast market and the broker supports the view of fertiliser production offering a more realistic path for commercialisation.

The broker feels Leigh Creek Energy offers capital upside for speculative investors. Some catalysts include customer offtake announcements, financing, and farm-in agreements.

The stock is rated a Speculative Buy with target price at $0.60.

The report was published on March 19, 2020.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.5
If LCK meets the State One Stockbroking target it will return approximately 500% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

State One Stockbroking forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.00.

Forecast for FY21:

State One Stockbroking forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYL    LYCOPODIUM LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $3.91

Bell Potter rates ((LYL)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Lycopodium is likely to be significantly impacted by efforts to stem the coronavirus onslaught, states Bell Potter. This, elaborates the broker, is because Lycopodium focuses more on construction activities rather than maintenance and new projects would find it difficult to kick off in the present environment.

Also, the company’s clients include junior/mid-tier miners who may find obtaining finance difficult. Lastly, most of the company’s recent work is from Africa and the broker believes these projects may be delayed due to unfavourable logistics.

All is not lost, however, the broker finds with Lycopodium being a premier provider of E&C services to the gold sector and the latter strengthening over the past year.

The broker has reduced earnings estimates by -10.7%, -25.2% and -23.1% for FY20-22 respectively. The broker is not concerned about long term growth due to cash reserves of $111m, a strong risk management framework and market standing.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy with target price at $4.80.

The report was published on March 18, 2020.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.91 Difference: $0.89
If LYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 31.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.30.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 37.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.34.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND    MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $9.96

Bell Potter rates ((MND)) as Buy (1) –

With covid-19 continuing to disrupt the resources market, Bell Potter acknowledges the impact on Monadelphous, with Woodside Petroleum’s ((WPL)) Scarborough project (major client) delayed by about twelve months from 2024.

The broker also believes the company would be insulated from major long-term damage due to a mostly blue-chip clientele that remains committed to their respective projects. Also, the company has a strong net cash position of $122.4m and a larger-than-before maintenance division, observes Bell Potter.

The broker has reduced earnings estimates by -3.6%, -14.2% and -13.5% for FY20-22, adding that while short term volatility would see the share price drop, long term investors would be rewarded by Monadelphous’s strong track record.

The broker retains Buy with target price reduced to $17 from $20.

The report was published on March 17, 2020.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $9.96 Difference: $7.04
If MND meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.15, suggesting upside of 52.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 63.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.6, implying annual growth of 14.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 72.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.8, implying annual growth of 14.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MZZ    MATADOR MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.18

Hartleys rates ((MZZ)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) –

Matador Mining is exploring the 1.2moz Cape Ray Gold project in Newfoundland, Canada which was acquired in mid-2018. A maiden JORC back then estimated reserves at 750koz at 1.7g/t gold, notes Hartleys, which has increased by 125% to 16.6mt at 2.2g/t Au in February 2020.

Matador Mining has a conceptual exploration target of 30-36mt grading 1.4 to 2.4 g/t Au for 1.3moz to 2.8moz across the Cape Ray Shear Zone, notes the broker.

The broker comments the stock is a Strong Buy but the company has not released a formal study. However, adds Hartleys, at 2.2g/t gold, Cape Ray is the highest grade, sole open pit resource of the 45 ASX-listed companies reviewed by Hartleys and the broker does not rule out near-term M&A activity.

Hartleys has initiated coverage with a Speculative Buy recommendation with target price of $0.38.

The report was published on March 16, 2020.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.2
If MZZ meets the Hartleys target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAN    NANOSONICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $6.38

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NAN)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity runs a scenario that highlights the impact covid-19 may have on Nanosonics. The broker estimates 3.5 months of revenue at risk in the second half which comes out to be about -$9.5m.

The company, with about 50% penetration in the North American Trophon market, may find it difficult to penetrate further, states the broker while adding that any major disruption in hospital operations could impact purchasing decisions.

Canaccord Genuity assumes capital sales for the group could be disrupted but that would only have a marginal impact on the annuity income streams as recurring revenues form about 70% of the group revenue.

The broker estimates a circa -58% decline in net profit for the second half with overall net profit for FY20 at $10.2m, a decline of -17%. 

Hold rating retained with target price $6.08.

The report was published on March 19, 2020.

Target price is $6.08 Current Price is $6.38 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If NAN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.24, suggesting downside of -2.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 155.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of -9.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 155.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 87.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of 70.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 91.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEA    NEARMAP LTD

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $1.19

Goldman Sachs rates ((NEA)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs has downgraded estimates for Nearmap and forecasts the Annualised Contract Value (ACV) for FY20 at $98.5m, down from $108.5m. Further, the broker estimates ACV growth for FY21 at 7%, well below the company's targeted 20-40% p.a.

Goldman Sachs expects the company to aggressively cut down on non-essential expenses and slow the frequency of the image capture program. The broker also notes the company is net cash on a very thin margin and expects a $30m equity raising in FY21.

Even so, Nearmap has a product/service suite and technology that would demonstrate value over time, believes the broker. Buy rating retained with target price at $1.3.

The report was published on March 24, 2020.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.11
If NEA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 59.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OTW    OVER THE WIRE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $2.93

Bell Potter rates ((OTW)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Bell Potter has reduced EPS forecasts for Over The Wire by -11%, -9% and -10% for FY20, FY21 and FY22 respectively. The main driver here is lower forecasted organic growth due to challenging macro conditions. The broker has reduced revenue and operating profit estimates by between -2-3% and -5-6%.

Even after reducing the target price to $3 from $4, the expected return is close to 50%. Bell Potter thus finds the stock is attractively valued with PE ratios dropping along with the chance of making an acquisition in the coming months.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold with target price at $3.

The report was published on March 20, 2020.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.07
If OTW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.64.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.30 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.53.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PBH    POINTSBET HOLDINGS LTD

Gaming – Overnight Price: $3.40

Bell Potter rates ((PBH)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

The widespread suspension of sports (including NBA and international soccer) has negatively hit bookmakers, notes Bell Potter, although the broker considers PointsBet Holdings to be better off than peers.

One of the reasons, states Bell Potter, is Australian racing, which forms a significant chunk of the group’s net revenue, appears to be continuing as per schedule. Other reasons include strong cash reserves of $157.8m, low wage expense and sports suspension aligning with quietest months for sports betting.

The broker downgrades revenue forecasts by -10.4% to $54.1m in FY20 and -12.9% to $77.7m in FY21 while the operating loss estimate jumps to -$54.8m from -$52.3m in FY20.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. The broker also flags a decrease in Customer Lifetime Valuation (CLV) to $2.25 from $6.45.

The report was published on March 18, 2020.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $3.9
If PBH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 115% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.29.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 33.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.03.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPS    PRAEMIUM LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $0.28

Bell Potter rates ((PPS)) as Buy (1) –

Praemium has been adversely impacted by covid-19, and Bell Potter notes momentum is slowing down in the UK market and the product VMASS (an extension of V-Wrap) is also impacted.

Praemium has a solid balance sheet, net cash of $15m and a development pipeline which will be worked on in this period, notes Bell Potter.

The broker has reduced estimates, commenting the same might need more adjustments depending on how the situation plays out. The cash EPS has been downgraded by -22.2%, -47.2% and -40% for FY20-22. The impact is not as bad as it looks due to a low earnings base, explains Bell Potter.

Buy rating retained with target price reduced to $0.5 from $0.75.

The report was published on March 17, 2020.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.22
If PPS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.67.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.50 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.54.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRN    PERENTI GLOBAL LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.77

Wilsons rates ((PRN)) as Overweight (1) –

After withdrawing net profit guidance, Perenti Global’s management has deferred the first-half dividend to October in a bid to retain cash, notes Wilsons. The broker highlights that the company’s revenue mix is skewed towards gold (circa 70% of revenues) and the recent price strength alleviates some of the risks except that from the African business.

Even though the business has customers ranging from tier one global miners to single asset businesses, the broker believes the miner can comfortably reduce exposure to the small ones if need be. The company has not been impacted so far from current disruptions and has put contingencies in place to manage risks.

The stock is rated Overweight with target price at $2.30.

The report was published on March 26, 2020.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $1.53
If PRN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 199% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.70 cents and EPS of 16.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.61.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.87.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RFF    RURAL FUNDS GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.94

Bell Potter rates ((RFF)) as Buy (1) –

Rural Funds Group has reiterated FY20 guidance for both Distribution Per Unit (DPU) and Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) at 10.85 cpu and 13.5 cpu.

With a long Weighted Average Lease Expiry (WALE) of 11.5 years and exposure to counterparties more sustainable in the current scenario, Bell Potter considers the group to enjoy some form of income certainty and leaves earnings forecast for the year intact.

Bell Potter highlights $268m invested by the agricultural REIT since 2016 in the cotton and cattle sector, that would act as a catalyst when the revaluation and rental review process is due in FY21.

Buy rating retained with target price reduced to $2.10 from $2.38.

The report was published on March 23, 2020.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.16
If RFF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $6.25

E.L. & C Baillieu rates ((SGM)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Sims Metal Management has withdrawn the second half guidance due to uncertain impact of covid-19 on scrap demand and activity levels. Ferrous and non-ferrous market conditions were already difficult before the covid-19 outbreak, note analysts at Baillieu.

The impact of the outbreak would extend into the first half of FY21 and thereafter normalise, comments the broker, while stating some other challenges faced by the company namely ferrous price declines, nil US-Turkish spread and declines in non-ferrous copper/aluminium price.

On the positive side, the company has a strong balance sheet with China’s activity levels also improving. Baillieu expects the share price to remain under pressure but believes it unlikely for covid-19 to have an enduring impact. The broker considers the stock to be attractively valued.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold with target price at $9.10.

The report was published on March 24, 2020.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $2.85
If SGM meets the E.L. & C Baillieu target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.45, suggesting upside of 51.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

E.L. & C Baillieu forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.60 cents and EPS of minus 14.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 42.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

E.L. & C Baillieu forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.70 cents and EPS of 25.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL    SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $24.48

Goldman Sachs rates ((SHL)) as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) –

Sonic Healthcare expects conventional diagnostics to be hit in the short to medium term with self-isolation on the rise and has withdrawn FY20 guidance.

Goldman Sachs notes the company is unable to quantify the volume at risk currently and believes a majority of tests for the remaining second half are at risk with some level of base demand intact.

The broker expects Sonic Healthcare to lose less volume as compared to peers and sees a relatively clearer path to recovery. Further, the broker notes, Sonic Healthcare is testing more covid-19 specimens than anyone else in Germany and Australia and is a significant contributor in the US, UK, Belgium, New Zealand etc.

The broker has revised down FY20 operating profit forecast by -22% to $922m while increasing it by 16% to $1,475m for FY21. Rating upgraded to Buy with target price at $27.80.

The report was published on March 21, 2020.

Target price is $27.80 Current Price is $24.48 Difference: $3.32
If SHL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.33, suggesting upside of 11.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.7, implying annual growth of -30.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 105.00 cents and EPS of 162.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.0, implying annual growth of 26.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHV    SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $7.18

Wilsons rates ((SHV)) as Market Weight (3) –

Latest trading update for Select Harvests has the 2020 crop harvest progressing well with about 40% of the orchards harvested and the rest to be done by April.

Wilsons observes company management is optimistic about crop size and quality and has committed more than 65% of the crop for sale at $8-8.50/kg.

While Wilsons is cautious, the broker does admit to the yield being great and has revised crop volume forecast for FY20 to 22.6 kt. The broker believes the coming months will provide catalysts on the 2020 US almond crop with reports suggesting good progress on the bloom.

The broker has upgraded EPS estimates by 17-18% in both FY20 and FY21.The stock is rated Market weight with target price at $6.38.

The report was published on March 18, 2020.

Target price is $6.38 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If SHV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 32.60 cents and EPS of 50.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.30.

Forecast for FY21:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 44.20 cents and EPS of 68.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.54.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SNL    SUPPLY NETWORK LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $3.49

E.L. & C Baillieu rates ((SNL)) as Buy (1) –

Supply Network operates under the Multispares Limited brand, providing aftermarket parts to commercial vehicles in Australia and New Zealand. Experiencing a demand slowdown in both Australia and New Zealand due to the ongoing covid-19 situation, the company has withdrawn guidance and deferred interim dividend, notes Baillieu.

The broker has downgraded earnings forecasts by -8%, -14% and -9% for FY20-22. Even so, Baillieu is positive about future prospects given Supply Network’s strong track record of growth coupled with modest gearing levels.

Buy retained with target price at $3.60.

The report was published on March 26, 2020.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.11
If SNL meets the E.L. & C Baillieu target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

E.L. & C Baillieu forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.62.

Forecast for FY21:

E.L. & C Baillieu forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 22.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.65.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNE    TECHNOLOGYONE LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $8.45

Bell Potter rates ((TNE)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Bell Potter has downgraded Technology One’s EPS forecasts for FY21 and FY22 by -2% and -4% while leaving FY20 unchanged. The main drivers are conservatism and a reduction in forecasted net profit to fall within the guidance range.

TechnologyOne, with an FY21 P/E ratio of 34x, looks reasonably valued along with being defensive, states Bell Potter. There is also a strong pipeline as well as customers switching to SaaS.

The broker has upgraded its rating to Buy from Hold with target price of $8.25.

The report was published on March 19, 2020.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $8.45 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.14, suggesting downside of -3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.3, implying annual growth of 10.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 23.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of 12.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VHT    VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.28

Bell Potter rates ((VHT)) as Buy (1) –

The CEO of Volpara Health Technologies stated in March that the company was on track to meet the upgraded recurring revenue guidance of NZ$17.8m. 

The broker comments this momentum was sustained till at least February but the key question now is the impact covid-19 may have on hospital purchasing in the event of a US recession.

Bell Potter is keen on the US reporting season to gain further insights while continuing to believe Volpara Health Technologies to be a very high-quality healthcare technology operator.

Buy rating retained with target price reduced to $1.75 from $2.32.

The report was published on March 20, 2020.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.47
If VHT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.19.

Forecast for FY21:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.07.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WZR    WISR LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.12

Shaw and Partners rates ((WZR)) as Buy (1) –

Wisr released a positive trading update, stating that while the fintech sector has been smashed due to the coronavirus, Wisr has not seen any tangible impact on the core business. The company has a lot of operating cost levers that can be controlled should the situation change, note the analysts.

Shaw and Partners considers the update a validation of the company’s resilient business model. The broker in particular notes the high quality of customers with the average credit score and net promoter score higher than peers. The broker also notes the company is the market leader in the neo-lending space, and has the financial capacity to support strong growth and scale across core lending business.

Shaw and Partners considers the stock a key pick, expecting more growth in the core business from additional channels. The timing is perfect, states the broker, for online lending in Australia. 

Noting the neo-lender is well-positioned for long term growth, Shaw and Partners retains the stock rating of Buy with target price at $0.35.

The report was published on March 17, 2020.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.23
If WZR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 192% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.23.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.33.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

As part of emerging new trends overseas, The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition also includes providers of sponsored research. Readers should bear in mind, sponsored research, while not necessarily of lower quality, has the embedded complication that the company that is the subject of the research has paid for this research. Providers of sponsored research that can potentially be included in this Report are Breakaway Research, Edison Investment Research, Independent Investment Research, NDF Research, Pitt Street Research, and TMT Analytics.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

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CHARTS

ADH ASB BOT BUB CCX COE ELO EML EXP FPH HRL INA JAN LCK LYL MND MZZ NAN NEA OTW PBH PPS PRN RFF SGM SHL SHV SNL TNE VHT WPL WZR

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ADH - ADAIRS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ASB - AUSTAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOT - BOTANIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BUB - BUBS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CCX - CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: COE - COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ELO - ELMO SOFTWARE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EML - EML PAYMENTS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EXP - EXPERIENCE CO LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HRL - HRL HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: INA - INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JAN - JANISON EDUCATION GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LCK - LEIGH CREEK ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LYL - LYCOPODIUM LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MND - MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MZZ - MATADOR MINING LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NAN - NANOSONICS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NEA - NEARMAP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: OTW - OVER THE WIRE HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PBH - POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PPS - PRAEMIUM LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PRN - PERENTI GLOBAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RFF - RURAL FUNDS GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGM - SIMS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SHL - SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SHV - SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SNL - SUPPLY NETWORK LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TNE - TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: VHT - VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WPL - WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WZR - WISR LIMITED