Weekly Reports | Apr 30 2018
This story features BEACH ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday April 23 to Friday April 27, 2018
Total Upgrades: 6
Total Downgrades: 4
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 45.58%; Hold 39.72%; Sell 14.70%
If we were to leave Healthscope ((HSO)) out of the equation, total upgrades and downgrades for the week ending Friday, 27th April 2018, would be almost in balance. Plus with the exception of one sole downgrade to Sell -Westpac being the recipient- all recommendation changes for the week ended in Neutral territory.
Clearly, with the share market recovering from early calendar year weakness, stockbroking analysts are seeing fewer reasons to upgrade to (an equivalent of) Buy ratings. In total numbers, FNArena registered six upgrades and four downgrades for individual ASX-listed stocks.
Other than these two observations, the third factor to take into account is that most of the action is now firmly centred around commodities and banks. UK bank CYBG was the sole recipient of an upgrade, other than Healtscope (2x), outside mining and energy stocks for the week.
The negative side looks a bit more varied with downgrades for ResMed (valuation), Fletcher Building (valuation), Westpac, and Healthscope.
Changes to consensus price targets all-in-all remain benign, with the largest increases recorded for three resources stocks; Beach Energy, Evolution Mining and Newcrest Mining. The week's table for negative amendments is short, including only four names, with Challenger taking the largest hit, followed by Janus Henderson.
The week saw some hefty increases to earnings expectations, with Senex Energy claiming top spot, followed by Alumina ltd, Beach Energy, AWE ltd, Newcrest Mining, and Boral.
Reductions to earnings estimates are equally eye-catching, with Galaxy Resources suffering most, followed by Village Roadshow, Western Areas, G8 Education, Fortescue Metals, and Orocobre.
The week ahead sees local reporting season heat up with more banks releasing financial results while resources stocks are releasing quarterly production updates.
Upgrade
BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/1
Beach's March Q numbers were in line with expectation. FY production guidance has been narrowed to the middle of the range and capex guidance has been lowered.
Capex deferrals and the divestment of 30% of Otway Basin could help fund the next phase of development, Macquarie suggests, unlocking undeveloped reserves and exploration upside on the back of recent drilling success. Valuation is closely leveraged to the oil price and higher prices lead to an upgrade to Neutral from Underperform.
Target rises to $1.20 from $1.05.
CYBG PLC ((CYB)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 2/2/1
Following a noticeable weakening in the share price, down -13% year-to-date, Citi analysts believe risk is now more evenly balanced, hence why they have upgraded their view to Neutral from Sell.
Citi retains a close watch on the outlook for Net Interest Margin (NIM), expecting downward pressure, but also suggests cost savings might provide compensation. There's ongoing potential for capital return, on Citi's projections.Target price lifts to GBP3.
HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED ((HSO)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse and Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/6/0
In the wake of a conditional private equity takeover bid for Healthscope at a 16% premium, Credit Suisse increases its target to $2.36 from $1.78 to match the bid and upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. The small control premium reflects challenging market conditions, the broker suggests.
Credit Suisse now awaits an assessment from the board, completion of due diligence and regulatory approval, notwithstanding the potential of a counter bid.
The company has received an unsolicited offer at $2.36 a share from a consortium. Morgan Stanley notes the near-term fundamentals will now take a back seat and the takeover premium will remain in the shares.
The broker considers the near-term outlook remains challenged but there are options in the business to unlock value. Rating is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight. Target is raised to $2.36 from $1.67. Industry view is In-Line.
See also HSO downgrade.
NEWCREST MINING LIMITED ((NCM)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/4/2
Cadia had been recovering strongly, Credit Suisse notes, but slumped in the March Q. Lihir delivered to expectation and a stronger copper price helped to reduce costs.
The broker has made negligible changes to forecasts but has increased its target to $19.95 from $18.50 as a result of de-risking its Wafi-Golpu valuation to 75% from 50%. This triggers an upgrade to Neutral from Outperform.
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED ((WPL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/5/1
Given bullish sentiment for the remainder of 2018 and increased forecasts for oil prices Macquarie upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Brent oil forecasts are raised by 20% to US$70/bbl for 2018 and by 5% to US$57/bbl for 2019.
The broker's target is raised to $31.90 from $28.10. Macquarie continues to expect 2019 will be in oversupply resulting in a build up of global oil stocks because of the return of OPEC volumes and sustained US production growth.
Downgrade
FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED ((FBU)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/0
After the de-leveraging of the balance sheet through the $750m capital raising, UBS envisages less upside for equity holders and downgrades to Neutral from Buy. The price target is reduced to NZ$6.30 from NZ$7.60.
This primarily reflects the increase in share count but operating earnings estimates are also lowered by -2-4%. The broker considers the capital increase an expensive, but probably necessary, move to improve the company's ability to negotiate with the USPP debt holders.
HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED ((HSO)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/6/0
The company has received a cash takeover bid of $2.36 a share from a consortium which includes majority shareholder AustralianSuper.
Morgans would be surprised if another bidder jumped in to sweeten the deal given there are a number of issues such as slowing utilisation, health fund price indexation and government policies.
If anything, the broker does not rule out the possibility the bid is reduced. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add as a result. Target is $2.42.
See also HSO upgrade.
RESMED INC ((RMD)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/4/1
UBS transfers coverage to another analyst and re-models earnings drivers. While the target increases to US$104 from US$96 the rating, based on recent share price performance, is downgraded to Neutral from Buy.
Non-GAAP growth in earnings per share of 12% is forecast over the next three years. Yet, UBS believes the robust earnings growth outlook is largely captured in the share price.
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION ((WBC)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/3/1
UBS analysts have drawn the conclusion that APRA's targeted review of mortgage loans is a "game changer" for lenders in Australia. As a direct result, the broker has downgraded Westpac to Sell from Neutral.
Data available to APRA, and released by the Royal Commission, raises questions about the quality of the bank's $400bn mortgage book, finds UBS. Addressing concerns by Westpac management can potentially lead to a sharp reduction in credit availability, says UBS.
Target price cut to $26.50 from $31 with earnings estimates left unchanged given the proximity of interim results release.
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT - BEACH ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FBU - FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NCM - NEWCREST MINING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RMD - RESMED INC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WBC - WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION