Carsales Takes Korea, Brokers Applaud

Australia | Nov 21 2017

By Greg Peel

Leading Australian online vehicle classifieds company ((CAR)) has signed a memorandum of understanding to lift its stake in South Korea’s number one equivalent business, SKEncar, to 100% from 49.9%.

Carsales acquired 49.9% of Encar in 2014 and since that time it has become the company’s best performing segment, growing revenue and earnings by compound rates of 27% and 28% respectively compared to 16% and 8% for the group as a whole, Citi notes. Encar is the leader in a market that sees around 10-15% more used cars sold each year than in Australia, Credit Suisse points out.

Carsales is still dominated by a domestic market providing around 87% of earnings, but as that business matures, the company is looking offshore for growth. Carsales otherwise currently owns 30% of Brazil’s WebMotors as well as controlling interests in leading portals in Mexico, Argentina and Chile.

Calling the Shots

Brokers are in agreement that a full takeover provides the opportunity to exploit successful strategies implemented in Australia to the Korean business in order to enhance upside potential. Deutsche Bank suggests Carsales’ pay-per-lead model may not have been popular with Encar’s owner SKGroup given its previous operation of used car dealerships. Encar’s earnings uplift over the past year has been driven by inspections/display growth, so implementing new initiatives has the potential to significantly improve the core business.

The question for UBS is will Carsales monetise leads? However the broker believes there is still material upside available from driving penetration alone. Having crunched the Korean industry numbers, UBS calculates that despite its number one position, Encar may still only be responsible for 15-30% of Korea’s used car transactions.

The acquisition will be funded with a new debt facility. While this will lift Carsales’ debt to equity ratio it is not a concern, Deutsche suggests, given the company’s strong cash flow growth. It will mean, nevertheless, that near term earnings accretion will be offset by a higher interest expense. But brokers are not that fussed about the near term numbers.

Credit Suisse sums up the mood in suggesting SKE has many years of double-digit earnings potential ahead and the price paid for 100% will in time be seen to be a great deal.

Value Discount

That price paid, being $370m, represents a discount to Carsales’ own current valuation. Estimations vary slightly among brokers but by so much that Deutsche’s calculation cannot be used as indicative, being an FY18 enterprise value to earnings multiple of 14.6x and a PE of 21.9x for Encar compared to 15.6x and 25x currently for Carsales.

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