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ASX200: Still Risk To The Downside

Technicals | Sep 18 2017

By Craig Parker, asset manager, Moat Capital

Again, another week with not a lot on offer from a technical point view. We tried to push up to the 5800 level only to be battered back down again. Our volatility index is back around support levels on the daily chart and I would be prepared for a move up here which would suggest a move down for our overall market. Assuming we break below the support level of 5660 then the next levels down are around 5500 to 5300. Gold is taking a break with a counter trend and the S&P 500 moving up the past week with clear bearish divergence on the weekly RSI. This can only go on for so long before a decent pullback occurs, especially considering the MACD and RSI indicators are in overbought territory on the monthly chart.

On a more positive note our small caps sector is looking good from a technical point of view having moved back into the long-term uptrend. Overall the coming week I would be keeping a keen eye on the support line on the volatility index and the 5660 level on the S&P/ASX 200 – and the missiles going over Japan of course.

ASX200 weekly

ASX Small Ords weekly

S&P500 weekly

S&P500 monthly

ASX200 VIX daily

Authorised Representative Sentinel Private Wealth AFSL 344762

www.moatcapital.com.au

Important Information

This document and its contents are general in nature and do not constitute or convey personal advice.  It has been prepared without consideration of anyone's particular financial situation, needs or financial objectives.  Personal advice should be sought before acting on any of the areas discussed.  The authors and distributors of this document accept no liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of that person, or any other person, placing any reliance on the contents of this document.

Moat Capital has made every reasonable effort to ensure the information provided is correct, but Moat Capital makes no representation or any warranty as to whether the information is accurate, complete or up to date.  To the extent permitted by law, Moat Capital accepts no responsibility for any errors or misstatements, negligent or otherwise.  The information provided may be based on assumptions or market conditions and may change without notice.

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