Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

Prima facie, weaker-than-expected earnings flagged by Feihe, the number one infant milk formula company in China, is not positive for a2 Milk Co, suggests Citi. The company attributed potential weakness to China’s low birth rate and competition.

The broker believes some of this negativity may be company-specific, and also feels a2 Milk Co may have short-term resilience based on a range of factors including a declining Chinese consumer preference for domestic brands.

The $5.30 target and Neutral rating are unchanged.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.93 Difference: $0.37
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AKE as Outperform (1) -

Allkem has materially upgraded the size of the resource at James Bay, now at 110.2mt at 1.3% lithium, with a maiden 55.9mt at 1.29% inferred. The company plans to conduct additional drilling in November to expand the resource.

The 173% increase in resource tonnage was partially offset by lower grade, previously 1.4%. Macquarie is encouraged by the maiden inferred resource and notes the upside that is present with the north-west sector open along strike at depth.

Outperform maintained. Target rises to $19.20 from $19.00.

Target price is $19.20 Current Price is $14.54 Difference: $4.66
If AKE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.98, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Sell (5) -

First half results from AMP were ahead of estimates. UBS is surprised that the final tranche of capital returns will be delayed until the end of the year.

Flat underlying net profit reflected an improvement in several divisions, the broker observes, with platforms a highlight, experiencing EBIT margin expansion and 26% earnings growth.

Advice remains loss-making and the broker does not expect it will break even in the near term. The company is targeting annualised cost savings of $120m by the end of FY25.

The broker retains a Sell rating and raises the target to $1.08 from $1.00.

Target price is $1.08 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.19, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AQZ as Add (1) -

Morgans makes only slight changes to its forecasts for Alliance Aviation Services given the FY23 result was largely pre-released in July. The $5.20 target is retained.

Underlying profit (NPBT) of $56.9m was in line with the recent upgrade by management though was a beat compared to FY23 guidance provided at 1H results of $50-55m.

The broker also keeps its Add rating on current strong earnings momentum and increasing utilisation of the E190 fleet along with upside from the second E190 expansion program.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $1.74
If AQZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVH as Buy (1) -

Avita Medical reported an 11.5% increase in Q2 revenues to take first half revenues to a 41% gain year on year. The increasing revenue trend continues as Recell gains traction across smaller burns in more hospitals, Bell Potter notes.

Expenses increased following the expansion of the sales force from early in the June quarter. The broker expects some lift in Q3 revenues following deployment of the expanded sales force, however the impact should be more pronounced in the final quarter.

There remains ample growth in the burns market amongst existing clients with the majority of burn revenues attributable to some 50% of burn accounts, Bell Potter suggests. Buy retained, target rises to $7.45 from $6.20.

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: $1.73
If AVH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.60, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AVH as Add (1) -

Avita Medical's 2Q result came in at the top end of management guidance, while FY23 guidance was upgraded to US$52m from US$50m, suggesting to Morgans sales momentum is just getting started.

The broker raises short term cost forecasts due to ongoing investment towards sales staff, product expansion and post market studies.

Management provided 3Q revenue guidance in the range of US$13-$14m.

The Add rating is maintained in the expectation of greater than 20% revenue growth for the next five years while the target rises to $6.74 from $5.41.

Target price is $6.74 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: $1.02
If AVH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.60, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AVH as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes the second quarter net loss from Avita Medical largely reflects a more than doubling of the US sales team in the first quarter ahead of the US launch of Recell for soft tissue repair. This expansion is yet to contribute meaningfully to revenue.

The broker now considers the shares fairly valued and expects the product pipeline and high gross margins will provide a path to profitability, although a near-term transition is unlikely.

Hold rating and $5.60 target.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If AVH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.60, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial assessment, Citi analysts find Aurizon Holdings has updated with a financial result that matches the recently issued pre-guidance.

Compositionally, however, the analysts believe there's marginally negative news with both Coal and Bulk divisions suffering from high costs.

Also: dividends, free cash flow and balance sheet gearing all look rather "soft" to the broker. 'Underwhelming" is a term used elsewhere throughout the written response.

Target $3.92. Neutral.

Target price is $3.92 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.22
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Neutral (3) -

Citi raises its target for Baby Bunting to $2.20 from $1.65 following FY23 results. While sales continue to trend negatively, the comparisons get easier to cycle through the 1H of FY24 and cost-out provides some buffer against operating deleverage.

Citi retains its Neutral rating while questions remain on just how non-discretionary sales for Baby Bunting really are, and because of uncertainty over the strategic direction with a new ceo starting in October.

The analysts suggest sales remain under pressure given the like-for-like sales decline of -9% for the first six weeks of FY24.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: $0.11
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BBN as Neutral (3) -

FY23 results from Baby Bunting were previously reported, with like-for-like sales down -3.6%.

Macquarie maintains like-for-like sales assumptions for FY24, expecting a contraction of -1%. Yet the composition of forecasts has now changed with a larger decline in the first half expected of -5% and a recovery in the second half of 3.2%

 In FY24 the company expects to cut costs and open five additional stores including three in New Zealand.

While the broker envisages the $6-8m cost reduction program in FY24 is a positive, caution prevails given the current operating environment. A Neutral rating is maintained. Target rises to $2.10 from $1.55.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: $0.01
If BBN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BBN as Equal-weight (3) -

There were few surprises for Morgan Stanley in Baby Bunting's pre-guided FY23 profit result of $14.5m.

Despite a history of issuing guidance at this point of the year, management declined to do so, and there was no update on gross margin even though the 2H was below the broker's expectation.

More positively, management pointed to a net $6-8m improvement on the -$162m for cost-of-doing-business (CODB) in FY24, and
will incur less than -$1m in transformation costs compared to the original budget for -$5-7m.

The Equal-weight rating and $1.65 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If BBN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBN as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

FY23 results for Baby Bunting were largely in line with those pre-released in late-July though Morgans increases its profit estimates for FY24 and FY25 due to cost-out initiatives and higher sales assumptions.

The broker raises its target to $2.50 from $1.90 on the higher profit estimates, model roll forward and higher peer multiples and the rating is upgraded to Add from Hold.

The FY23 dividend of 7.3cps was in line with Morgans forecast but above the consensus estimate. Overall sales growth of 4.4% is expected in FY24 driven by an expansion of the store network and the recently announced launch of the online Marketplace.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: $0.41
If BBN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBN as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Baby Bunting reported a -51% decline in underlying net profit in FY23, in line with updated guidance provided in July. Ord Minnett notes the short term consists of challenging trading conditions, made more difficult by the cycling of strong comparable sales growth in the first quarter.

While household expenditure is likely to remain under pressure, the business should return to growth in the second half of FY24, the broker adds. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target lifted to $2.35 from $1.60.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: $0.26
If BBN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Buy (1) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank reported cash earnings of $577m, which at first glance is slightly weaker than Citi expected and attributed to slightly softer net interest margins in the fourth quarter as well as higher costs and bad debts.

The capital position appears strong with a CET1 ratio of 11.25%, ahead of estimates. While the FY24 market expectations appear reasonable, the broker expects further questions will be raised about the margin trajectory following the result.

Buy rating with a $9.25 target.

Target price is $9.25 Current Price is $9.19 Difference: $0.06
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.23, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BOE as Speculative Hold (3) -

In just over four months Boss Energy is anticipating to restart production from its Honeymoon uranium project and will become Australia’s third uranium producer, and first in the last decade, Bell Potter notes.

Uranium fundamentals continue to support the broker's pricing thesis which is based on advancement in nuclear energy across the globe filtering through to a growing demand, and a lack of near-term supply as producers exited the market post Fukushima.

Speculative Hold and $3.72 target retained.

Target price is $3.72 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.39
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

On a first assessment, underlying earnings in FY23 for Beach Energy were largely in keeping with expectations. Citi notes Waitsia is now expected to come on line in mid 2024, a little later than previously anticipated.

The broker is somewhat surprised that Waitsia guidance has been reinstated with total expenditure of $450-500m, yet the delay comes with an expense of up to $65m for take-or-pay contracts for processing and liquefying gas. Neutral retained. Target is $1.65.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

The rate of declines in consumer demand has moderated over the June quarter, particularly in Europe and North America, Macquarie notes.

Breville Group has outperformed the broker's benchmark for second quarter revenue by 14%, implying modest upside risk to June half revenue forecasts. The data also suggests inventory levels continue to normalise.

Neutral rating. Target is raised to $23.30 from $21.05.

Target price is $23.30 Current Price is $24.50 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.55, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

At first glance, FY23 net profit from Carsales was ahead of Citi's estimates. Minor upside risks to consensus expectations are envisaged for FY24 EBITDA.

While stock has had a strong run up in recent months the broker expects a result will be well received, given the performance of TI and guidance for private. Buy rating and $28 target.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $24.61 Difference: $3.39
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.12, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

Downer EDI pre-reported FY23 results, with underlying net profit of $174m at the lower end of the guidance range. Macquarie notes the focus is on the outlook for FY24, described by the company as a transition year.

EBITA margin improvement is targeted, underpinned by progress on reducing personnel, although the broker notes this remains in the context of still challenging external conditions.

Macquarie also observes utilities remains a "problem child" with ongoing losses that are likely to extend into the first half. This includes water projects which the company is now looking to exit. Neutral maintained along with a $4.15 target.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ELD as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -

Citi initiates coverage on high-quality agricultural play Elders with a Sell rating based on challenging upcoming seasonal conditions and a more gradual growth in livestock exports.

Moreover, the analysts anticipate lower commodity prices and negative overall rural sentiment. Among other limiting factors, crop production is expected to deteriorate leading to less demand for crop protection and fertiliser products.

Citi forecasts FY23 underlying earnings (EBIT) of $181m, at the bottom end of the guidance range. A $6.85 target is set.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $7.54 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.50, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

First half results at first glance were slightly ahead of Citi's expectations. The distribution from GPT Group was in line and the broker notes portfolio occupancy is stable at 97.9%.

The broker considers the spread of assets under management relatively attractive considering the cheap discount to the sum of the parts and retains a Buy rating with a $5.00 target.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: $0.8
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLO as Add (1) -

Morgans likes Helloworld Travel's acquisition of Express Travel Group for -$70m ($55m cash: $15m scrip) due to the attractive price, the scaling up of the company's A&NZ business and the potential synergies from the target's similar business model.

Both companies operate in A&NZ and provide air ticket consolidation travel to a network of travel agents, explain the analysts. Helloworld's earnings margins are expected to increase and make the 30% target in FY24 very achievable.

The price target rises to $4.22 from $3.46. Add.

Target price is $4.22 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $1.42
If HLO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, JB Hi-Fi posted EBIT of $769m in FY23, below Citi's estimates. Higher costs growth for both JB Hi-Fi Australia and The Good Guys drove the miss to forecasts. The final dividend was also below expectations.

Nevertheless, the broker believes the market will like the strong beat in the second half to consensus expectations, although there may be some lingering concerns regarding the sales trajectory of The Good Guys. Neutral rating and $48 target.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $47.21 Difference: $0.79
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.90, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

Upon first glance, UBS reports today's FY23 release by JB Hi-Fi revealed a better-than-forecast performance, while like-for-like sales in July were equally above expectations.

The $3.12 in dividend is higher than market consensus, but marginally below the broker's forecast of $3.15. UBS finds more positives in the cash conversion and labels today's a "high quality result".

While sales momentum has slowed in July, UBS had penciled in worse. Neutral. Target $45.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $47.21 Difference: minus $2.21 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $42.90, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

At first glance, FY23 operating profit from Lendlease Group was ahead of Citi's estimates. The broker observes this was a lower quality beat, driven by interest and tax. Gearing has reduced to 14.8%, reducing funding concerns.

Despite the earnings outcome, the broker believes investors may question the achievement of  FY24 targets given the uncertain environment and rising debt costs. Buy rating and $9.80 target.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $8.48 Difference: $1.32
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.41, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MEI as Outperform (1) -

Meteoric Resources has signed a cooperation agreement with the Mina Gerais government and will be now included in a priority list of mining projects. Macquarie observes this will support the approval process for the Caldiera rare earths project and reduce the risk of delays to permits.

The broker expects the high-grade core of the project should enable a company to provide a development that generates strong returns in most pricing scenarios. Material upside is also expected through exploration.

Outperform rating and $0.45 target maintained.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.21
If MEI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

After FY23 results for Nick Scali, Citi  upgrades its FY24 and FY25 core profit estimates by 17% and 14%, respectively, to reflect an improved gross margins outlook. Lower debt levels also lead to lower interest costs.

The profit estimates also benefit from synergies following the Plush acquisition. The broker believes the market under-appreciates Nick Scali's resultant increased scale.

The analyst upgrades the rating to Buy from Neutral, noting the company's made-to-order, minimal working capital business model is relatively attractive in a weak demand environment. The target jumps to $14.35 from $9.96.

July 2023 orders were down -8% on previous corresponding period with both Nick Scali and Plush delivering negative orders, notes the broker, with weakness likely a function of the housing market.

Target price is $14.35 Current Price is $12.12 Difference: $2.23
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCK as Neutral (3) -

Nick Scali's FY23 net profit was ahead of Macquarie's estimates, largely because of strong gross margins that was supported by Plush synergies and lower freight costs.

The company should continue to deliver solid gross margins but the broker suspects the current macro environment of higher interest rates and slowing housing turnover will be a headwind.

Macquarie makes minor reductions to like-for-like written sales assumptions for FY24, reducing the first half estimate to a contraction of -9% and the second half to -3%, while new stores should provide some offset.

Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $12.20 from $11.30.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $12.12 Difference: $0.08
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as No Rating (-1) -

FY23 results from Newcrest Mining were 8% ahead of Macquarie's expectations. FY24 guidance was mixed, with production and costs softer than the broker's prior estimates although capital expenditure was better than forecast.

The broker observes the company expects to have sufficient franking credits to frank the US$1.10 dividend that it is allowed to pay under the Newmont deal. Macquarie is restricted on providing a rating and target at present.

Current Price is $25.85. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $27.38, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses strong FY23 financials, cash and dividends for Newcrest Mining, exceeding forecasts by the broker and consensus.

The result was driven by a US$143m beat on operating cash flow and -US$51m lower capex versus Morgan Stanley's forecast.

FY24 production guidance for gold and copper were beats of 9% and 19%, respectively, versus consensus, while guidance for all-in sustaining costs (AISC) were a -6% miss versus the analyst's forecast.

There were no further updates on the bid by Newmont. Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating and $25 target. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $25.85 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.38, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NCM as Hold (3) -

FY23 profit and free cash flow for Newcrest Mining exceeded consensus estimates. A US20c final fully franked dividend was declared.

FY24 gold and copper production guidance was for 2-2.3moz and 120-140kt, respectively, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) increasing by -11% on the previous corresponding period.

Given the high likelihood of a merger with Newmont in November, Morgans sees limited share price upside and retains its Hold rating and lowers its target to $25.20 from $25.60.

Target price is $25.20 Current Price is $25.85 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.38, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Accumulate (2) -

Newcrest Mining's FY23 result broadly met Ord Minnett's forecasts. Net profit fell -11% while adjusted EBITDA was similar to the prior year as higher gold and copper sales offset increased costs and a weaker copper price.

The broker retains an Accumulate rating and $33 target, with the latter in line with the proposed purchase by Newmont.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $25.85 Difference: $7.15
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.38, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

FY23 results from Newcrest Mining was softer than UBS expected. The company has also updated its reserves which means a 5% increase to 64m ounces.

The broker notes the scheme meeting for the deal with Newmont remains on track for October. Based on Newmont's last closing price the target is reduced to $26.20 from $27.30 and a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $25.85 Difference: $0.35
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.38, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWS as Neutral (3) -

News Corp's fourth quarter EBITDA beat Macquarie's estimates by 10% because of cost reductions. The broker finds the stock attractive on a risk/reward basis although believes confirmation is at least 12 months away, given the Foxtel refinancing.

Most advertising revenue sources declined, as expected, with Australia the most negative. The broker's view on cyclical stocks is unchanged, stating the appropriate time to purchase a cyclical is when the declines in advertising revenue start to moderate - and they are currently accelerating.

Neutral reiterated. Target is raised 14% to $32.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $32.61 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.77, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWS as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett considers the fourth quarter normalised EBITDA increase of 2% from News Corp "quality", noting the result was achieved against an extra week in the prior period.

Benefits of cost reductions are observed, while the 25% jump in the earnings of Dow Jones was ahead of expectations.

The broker believes the results vindicate the rally in the stock price of more than 20% over the past three months and raises the target to $32.30 from $30.00. Hold maintained.

Target price is $32.30 Current Price is $32.61 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If NWS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.77, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLL as Outperform (1) -

Piedmont Lithium posted a net loss in the second quarter that was larger than Macquarie's forecasts, because of the treatment of associate losses.

As North American lithium production ramps up the broker expects the company will start to generate strong cash flow from offtake and this should help fund its share of the Ewoyaa project and the Tennessee lithium hydroxide plant.

Higher sales are expected in the second half of 2023. Outperform maintained. Target edges down to $1.80 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $1.1
If PLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 157% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QBE as Add (1) -

Following 1H results, Morgans expects the market will focus on FY23 guidance for the combined operating ratio (COR), which implies a material improvement for QBE Insurance in the 2H.

The broker mainly attributes a higher tax rate than expected for a -10% miss for 1H profit compared to the consensus estimate, while the 14cps interim dividend also missed the expected 24cps on a lower-than-expected payout ratio.

Based on stronger COR guidance (94.5%) and a lift in forecast for investment yield, the broker raises its target to $17.16 from $16.10.

A reshaping of the North American business is just one of several tailwinds for the company to drive an improved performance, in the analyst's view. Add.

Target price is $17.16 Current Price is $15.37 Difference: $1.79
If QBE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.11, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REA as Equal-weight (3) -

FY23 earnings (EBITDA) were in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. More importantly, outlook commentary confirmed a Q1 recovery in listings with easier comparisons to follow in Q2.

No specific guidance was issued, but the analyst believes the consensus FY24 earnings forecast is achievable, with potential for upside.

Management anticipates the residential buy yield will grow by double-digits in FY24, driven by an average 13% price rise, while losses in India will moderate.

Equal-weight rating. Target $130. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $158.68 Difference: minus $28.68 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $141.48, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -

Despite volume headwinds, REA Group has produced a broadly resilient FY23 result, in Morgans view, which just slightly beat consensus expectations. A 83cps final dividend was declared.

Apart from the resilience of the core Australian residential business, where 11% buy yield growth helped offset a -12% volume decline, the broker highlights strong revenue growth for REA India.

While there may be volatility due to the current macro backdrop, particularly around new listings volumes, Morgans believes management can adjust levers such as yield to provide a partial offset. The Hold rating and $155 target are unchanged.

Target price is $155.00 Current Price is $158.68 Difference: minus $3.68 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $141.48, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REA as Lighten (4) -

REA Group's net profit decline was better than Ord Minnett expected because of stronger yield growth. The broker suggests the business is demonstrated "exceptional pricing power".

Although buy listing volumes in Australian residential declined by -12% the company was able to offset almost all of this by an increase in buy yield.

The main risk the broker envisages for the medium term is that the annual double-digit price hikes start attracting regulatory scrutiny.

The Lighten rating is maintained. Target rises to $109 from $100.

Target price is $109.00 Current Price is $158.68 Difference: minus $49.68 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $141.48, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Neutral (3) -

Results were in line or marginally ahead of estimates in FY23 and going forward, UBS is confident in REA Group's ability to deliver 16% underlying yield growth. The broker raises FY24-26 estimates for revenue and EBITDA by an average of 2.5%.

July has started better than UBS expected, with volumes down -5% year-on-year and Sydney/Melbourne up 9%. For now, a 1% volume growth forecast is maintained, assuming rising investor selling activity is slightly offset by by homeowners being less eager to sell.

Neutral maintained. Target rises to $162.40 from $149.10.

Target price is $162.40 Current Price is $158.68 Difference: $3.72
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $141.48, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes progress is being made towards the final phases of approval for the Simandou iron ore mine with agreements reached between Rio Tinto and joint venture partners, for trans-Guinean rail and port infrastructure.

The agreements were with the Republic of Guinea and the Winning Consortium.

The Overweight rating and $122.50 target are unchanged. Sector view is Attractive.

Target price is $122.50 Current Price is $109.00 Difference: $13.5
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.92, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie flags media reports that suggest the sale of Honan may be in play for Steadfast Group. This asset is a network member of the company and is included in gross written premium of which the broker estimates it represents around 4%.

Although considering it unlikely Steadfast Group would win the bidding process against global peers with deeper pockets and access to cheaper capital, Macquarie points out the company does have a "history of overpaying".

At current multiples the broker maintains a Neutral rating, being cautious should a deal require Steadfast to raise capital. Target is $6.30.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: $0.41
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie assesses the in-principle agreement with the NSW government on casino duties at The Star Sydney is a reprieve. It provides a reduced impact initially before a material step up in 2030.

Yet the ability to offset the impact is somewhat challenged in the broker's opinion, as the company is expected to provide employment certainty in arrangements with the United Workers Union that will affect further cost reductions.

Still, the certainty on casino duties clears the way for more constructive negotiations on debt refinancing and covenant relief. Neutral maintained along with a $1.25 target.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.1
If SGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGR as Accumulate (2) -

Star Entertainment's deal with the NSW government has effectively meant a transitional period for increased levies and, Ord Minnett asserts, removes a key piece of uncertainty.

As the company is set to pay less tax over the next decade, in isolation, this is worth around 6% to the broker's valuation. The tax reprieve should also bring additional certainty to potential lenders as the company looks to refinance its debt.

Ord Minnett makes no changes to FY23 forecasts and retains an Accumulate rating and $1.80 target.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.65
If SGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGR as Buy (1) -

Star Entertainment has a new deal with the NSW government  which UBS assesses is a mix of wins and losses. Compared with the existing duty proposal, the new structure provides a material valuation benefit from delaying full-scale implementation by seven years.

The broker observes there are still several valuation swing factors in play for the business, including the extent of demand recovery, payment terms, impacts of refinancing and the scale of cost savings. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $1.45 from $1.59.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.3
If SGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TSK as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Task Group is an end-to-end Transaction Management and Customer Engagement platform that delivers a B2B SaaS solution to high-quality enterprise clients in entertainment and limited food service verticals by providing the platform for clients to manage the customer
experience from order to payment.

Bell Potter initiates coverage with a Buy rating and 62c target.

Task Group currently trades at a -20% discount to global industry peers despite comparable forecast revenue growth, earnings margins and free cash flow yields. Closing the valuation gap in th broker's view will be driven by continued revenue growth and profitability.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.15
If TSK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TYR as Buy (1) -

UBS updates its forecasts for Tyro Payments in line with guidance, noting a greater focus on costs with the company delivering three upgrades to profit estimates over the past 12 months. The long-awaited operating leverage is now in view, the broker adds.

Hence, confidence around the free cash flow outlook has increased and UBS forecasts $24m in FY24. The broker builds in some conservatism in FY24 transaction forecasts to allow for weaker consumer conditions.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $1.80 from $1.95.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.55
If TYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 51.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources