Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -

Since the last time Morgan Stanley updated for AGL Energy in early March, NSW FY23 electricity pool prices have risen from $95/mwh to $120mwh and FY24 and FY25 forwards have also followed higher.

The broker attributes higher prices to a number of factors including higher NSW coal prices and normalising demand post covid.

The broker only anticipates modest upside to the consensus FY23 EPS forecast for AGL Energy given management has pointed to a high degree of hedging already implemented. However, upside in FY24 and FY25 could be material should elevated prices persist.

The Equal-weight rating and $7.50 target are maintained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.48 Difference: $0.02
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AKE as Buy (1) -

UBS anticipates disruption to Western Australian mining activity from increased covid-related absenteeism, with iron ore, lithium, nickel, alumina and gold exposed to the risk. However, the currently high pricing environment is considered to provide a welcome buffer.

UBS maintains the Buy rating and $12.40 target price for Allkem.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $10.64 Difference: $1.76
If AKE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades its rating for Atlas Arteria to Neutral from Outperform and its target price falls to $6.66 from $7.09 after an unfavourable exchange rate is taken into account.

In addition, with French fuel prices having risen by 60% from 2019 levels, the analyst points out car trips are partly discretionary and expects trips to be cut by -6-7%. Traffic data so far in 2022 has been soft, notes Macquarie.

Target price is $6.66 Current Price is $6.72 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALX as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans has been surprised by the recent strength of Atlas Arteria's share price given momentum in sovereign bond yields and surges in exchange rates. 

The broker notes strength in the Australian dollar, and the Australian to US dollar exchange rate, has impacted negatively on distributions received by Macquarie Fund Advisors, driving dividend per share forecast downgrades from the broker of -5% in FY22 and -8-9% in FY23 and FY24.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Add and the target price decreases to $6.41 from $6.69.

Target price is $6.41 Current Price is $6.72 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Buy (1) -

After reviewing spot price valuations, Ord Minnett makes some brief observations on stocks within its mining sector coverage.

The broker points out aluminium play Alumina Ltd has earnings (at spot prices) more than double the consensus estimate.

The Buy rating and $2.30 target are retained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.32
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

While Morgans expects growth in iron ore pricing growth to slow the broker anticipates supply tightness will continue to support continuing strong earnings in the sector, maintaining the market remains strong with benchmark pricing of US$140-150 per tonne. 

While pressure is likely to be felt from surging fuel costs and labour and supply constraints, the broker doubts these will have significant impact on pricing.

BHP Group remains Morgans' top sector pick given superior diversification and ability to mitigate cost and labour pressures. Key to the company's outlook, according to the broker, is growth in China and internationally. 

The rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target price increases to $51.80 from $48.70.

Target price is $51.80 Current Price is $49.30 Difference: $2.5
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.36, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as No Rating (-1) -

After reviewing spot price valuations, Ord Minnett makes some brief observations on stocks within its mining sector coverage.

The broker points out iron ore majors are benefiting from higher iron ore and base metals prices with FY23 yields of 14-19%, while still having low multiples.

Ord Minnett is on rating restriction for BHP Group.

Current Price is $49.30. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $49.36, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS anticipates disruption to Western Australian mining activity from increased covid-related absenteeism, with iron ore, lithium, nickel, alumina and gold exposed to the risk.

The broker is monitoring shipping data to gain an appreciation as to how the iron ore producers are faring, and notes none of the iron ore majors have adjusted guidance as yet. The current high prices are seen as a welcome buffer.

UBS maintains its Neutral rating and $42 target price.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $49.30 Difference: minus $7.3 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $49.36, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BKL as Sell (5) -

In Citi's view Swisse's focus on growth in domestic grocery sales could be a risk to Blackmores' earnings, particularly since Blackmores has stepped back from aggressive discounting to maintain a competitive position.

Swisse also reported a marketing spend far higher than Blackmores, at 30% of sales compared to Blackmores' 10%. Citi notes Blackmores intends to increase marketing spend in the second half.

The Sell rating and target price of $73.16 are retained.

Target price is $73.16 Current Price is $73.80 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target).
If BKL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $82.93, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BKW as Buy (1) -

Brickworks has reported first half earnings of $450m from revenue of $535m, a 40% and 7% beat to Citi forecasts respectively, with North America reporting 84% revenue increase on the previous comparable period off the back of the Illinois Brick Company acquisition.

The broker highlights that property remains a key driver for the company's outlook, with the company suggesting pre-committed developments in its pipeline will provide an additional $60m in rental income over the next three years.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $26.00 from $25.00.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $22.87 Difference: $3.13
If BKW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.28, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BKW as Neutral (3) -

Overall, first half results for Brickworks were in-line with Macquarie's expectations, with a beat versus forecasts for both Property and Australian Building Products.

The analyst notes the North American Building Products division requires a strong non-residential recovery to counter rising interest rates.

The attractiveness of the portfolio presents a series of contrasts to the broker and the ultimate conclusion is that shares have a non-compelling overall valuation. The Neutral rating is maintained, while the target price is decreased to $24 from $25.15.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.87 Difference: $1.13
If BKW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.28, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BKW as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett raises its rating for Brickworks to Buy from Accumulate following 1H results that indicated further upside potential from the Property division. It's estimated upside will derive from further development opportunities and rental income growth.

First half profit of $330m exceeded the broker's $258m forecast, while the 22cps dividend was in-line.

Along with upside from Property operations, the analyst notes a strong pipeline of work from housing activity in Australia and improving
non-residential construction in the US. The target price is lowered to $26 from $26.20.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $22.87 Difference: $3.13
If BKW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.28, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BKW as Neutral (3) -

First half earnings (EBIT) for Brickworks were a beat versus UBS' expectation thanks to stronger-than-expected Property earnings, largely due to $228m in revaluation benefit.

However, the broker retains its Neutral rating, believing Property upside is adequately reflected in the current share price. In addition, there is considered to be uncertainties surrounding the new operating land trust, along with US property.

The analyst increases the FY22 profit estimate on stronger than expected property earnings, offset by lower US building Products earnings. The FY23 profit forecast lifts on stronger Property and Australian Building Products earnings. The target rises by 3% to $24.30.

Target price is $24.30 Current Price is $22.87 Difference: $1.43
If BKW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.28, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Buy (1) -

After reviewing spot price valuations, Ord Minnett makes some brief observations on stocks within its mining sector coverage.

Regarding steel, the broker points out BlueScope Steel is seeing upside due to rising hot rolled coil prices though raw inputs have also increased. The $25 target price and Buy rating are retained.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $20.42 Difference: $4.58
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.06, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes the current 3-4% shelf inflation for supermarkets is unlikely to slow in the near-term, with ongoing supply chain issues and growing fuel and input costs.

The analyst feels the revenue benefit to supermarkets may be lessened as consumers go back to offices and consumption shifts to
out-of-home.

Calling upon historical data, the broker notes Staples tend to outperform the market in the case of monetary tightening and economic downturns. The broker maintains its preference for Coles Group and Metcash ((MTS)) in the space.

The $19.70 target and Outperform rating for Coles Group are unchanged.

Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $17.85 Difference: $1.85
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.81, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CVN as Neutral (3) -

Carnarvon Energy and Santos ((STO)) have reported an oil discovery at Pavo-1 in Western Australia, which has increased the value of the Dorado project, according to Macquarie.

The analyst feels the market has fully priced-in the discovery for Carnarvon Energy's shares though the company's takeover appeal rises. Neutral rating. The target price is increased by 24% to $0.36 on an increased Dorado valuation.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.01
If CVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

UBS anticipates disruption to Western Australian mining activity from increased covid-related absenteeism, with iron ore, lithium, nickel, alumina and gold exposed to the risk. However, the currently high pricing environment is considered to provide a welcome buffer.

UBS maintains its Neutral rating and $3.65 target price for Evolution Mining.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.31, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Hold (3) -

While Morgans expects growth in iron ore pricing growth to slow the broker anticipates supply tightness will continue to support continuing strong earnings in the sector, maintaining the market remains strong with benchmark pricing of US$140-150 per tonne. 

While pressure is likely to be felt from surging fuel costs and labour and supply constraints, the broker doubts these will have significant impact on pricing.

In the last year Fortescue Metals has increased its discount to benchmark pricing from -9% to -32%, driving a -51% earnings decline in the December half. Further, the broker anticipates consensus operating expenditure will not sustain anticipated production.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $19.10 from $18.80.

Target price is $19.10 Current Price is $18.94 Difference: $0.16
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.06, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Hold (3) -

After reviewing spot price valuations, Ord Minnett makes some brief observations on stocks within its mining sector coverage.

The broker points out iron ore majors are benefiting from higher iron ore and base metals prices with FY23 yields of 14-19%, while still having low multiples.

Ord Minnett maintains its Hold rating and $21 target price for Fortescue Metals.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $18.94 Difference: $2.06
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.06, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

UBS anticipates disruption to Western Australian mining activity from increased covid-related absenteeism, with iron ore, lithium, nickel, alumina and gold exposed to the risk.

The broker is monitoring shipping data to gain an appreciation as to how the iron ore producers are faring, and notes none of the iron ore majors have adjusted guidance as yet. The current high prices are seen as a welcome buffer.

UBS maintains its Sell rating and $16.30 target price for Fortescue Metals.

Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $18.94 Difference: minus $2.64 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.06, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HDN as Outperform (1) -

Following a period of research restriction, Macquarie resumes coverage with an Outperform rating and $1.63 target for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT.

By comparison to peers, the analyst points to strong portfolio metrics aided by a high (78%) exposure to metropolitan markets. It's also estimated -$60m/year for development can be funded internally, which is expected to result in superior growth.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.17
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.62, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IVC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett examines the differences between the Australian and UK funeral industries, as well as differences between InvoCare and the UK-listed Dignity, which has released disappointing FY21 results.

A key difference is that Dignity guided to lower expected death volumes (after excess deaths during the pandemic), whereas in recent months, InvoCare Australia has seen a meaningful increase in death volumes, explains the broker.

The analyst points to InvoCare's 24% market share in Australia, while Dignity has 12% share and a large unlisted competitor. 

Ord Minnett maintains its Hold rating and $13 target price.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.70 Difference: $1.3
If IVC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.05, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

An unexpected sales momentum lift in the third quarter from JB Hi-Fi continues to defy market expectations for a slowing of sales, with Citi noting the retailer reported 10.5% like-for-like sales growth in the quarter to date, notably cycling 11.5% growth in the previous year. 

Citi notes improved shopping centre foot traffic likely supported results, but the trading update provides confidence in retail sales holding up in the second half.

Super Retail Group ((SUL)) and Harvey Norman ((HVN)) remain Citi's first and second pick, respectively, for discretionary retailers.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $55.00 from $54.00.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $52.90 Difference: $2.1
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.65, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JBH as Outperform (1) -

While JB Hi-Fi has managed to sustain strong sales growth through the third quarter, Credit Suisse anticipates a moderating of growth in the final quarter as inflation of food and petrol prices drive tightening of discretionary spending.

While indicators show continued robust retail spending in recent weeks, Credit Suisse acknowledges investors may be wary of data lagging the expenditure cycle given recent momentum in food and petrol pricing and the broker awaits further read through from industry data. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $60.08 from $60.27.

Target price is $60.08 Current Price is $52.90 Difference: $7.18
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.65, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Outperform (1) -

In an update on 3Q sales to-date, JB Hi-Fi noted heightened demand from consumers in Australia. Macquarie retains its Outperform rating and $57.80 target as the sales growth confirmed conclusions from the broker's internally generated data.

Macquarie highlights the best performer was JB Hi-Fi Australia with with 3Q FY22 comparative sales up by 10.5%.

The analyst feels the savings rate by consumers will provide a buffer over 2022 against any fall-off in consumer sentiment due to inflationary impacts. 

Target price is $57.80 Current Price is $52.90 Difference: $4.9
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.65, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JBH as Add (1) -

Heightened customer demand has driven a continuation of JB Hi-Fi's strong sales growth according to its latest trading update, with the strong performance driving Morgans to upgrade its comparable sales growth forecast from -0.3% to 1.7%. 

For the third quarter to date, JB Hi-Fi Australia's comparable sales growth is up 10.5%, JB Hi-Fi New Zealand's growth is up 2.9%, while The Good Guys growth is up 5.1%. With its strong sales momentum, Morgans finds the company undervalued at current multiples. 

The Add rating is retained and the target price increases to $58.00 from $57.00.

Target price is $57.00 Current Price is $52.90 Difference: $4.1
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.65, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JBH as Buy (1) -

With just one week left in the quarter, JB Hi-Fi provided a 3Q trading update which leaves the upgrade cycle intact, according to Ord Minnett.

Management attributed strong operating leverage to sales growth, cost control, stock availability and gross profit margin-mix benefits in
The Good Guys.

The broker sees strong sales growth and gross margin upside potential and lifts its target to $62 from $57. Buy.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $52.90 Difference: $9.1
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.65, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

Following a 3Q trading update by JB Hi-Fi, UBS notes strengthening sales growth in February and March, reflective of strong consumer demand.

The broker also liked the disciplined cost control, stock availability and sales mix, while The Good Guys showed gross margin expansion.

The $54 target price and Neutral rating are retained after upgrades to the broker's EPS estimates due to stronger JB Australia sales and earnings margins.

Meanwhile an unfavourable exchange rate lowered New Zealand earnings estimates and the recently announced buyback was also  incorporated into UBS' estimates.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $52.90 Difference: $1.1
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.65, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MCP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett expects McPherson's strategic alliance with Australia’s fastest growing major pharmacy group, Chemist Warehouse Group to be EPS accretive in FY23.

The alliance recognises McPherson's as a preferred supplier and expands the portfolio of the company’s brands that Chemist Warehouse
currently carries.

While the broker's Hold rating remains, the target price rises to $1.12 from $1.09.

Target price is $1.12 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.18
If MCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

UBS anticipates disruption to Western Australian mining activity from increased covid-related absenteeism, with iron ore, lithium, nickel, alumina and gold exposed to the risk.

The broker is monitoring shipping data to gain an appreciation as to how the iron ore producers are faring, and notes none of the iron ore majors have adjusted guidance as yet. The current high prices are seen as a welcome buffer.

UBS maintains the Buy rating and $60 target price.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $48.50 Difference: $11.5
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.14, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes the current 3-4% shelf inflation for supermarkets is unlikely to slow in the near-term, with ongoing supply chain issues and growing fuel and input costs.

The analyst feels the revenue benefit to supermarkets may be lessened as consumers go back to offices and consumption shifts to
out-of-home.

Calling upon historical data, the broker notes Staples tend to outperform the market in the case of monetary tightening and economic downturns. The broker maintains its preference for Metcash and  Coles Group ((COL)) in the space.

The $4.70 target and Outperform rating for Metcash are unchanged.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: $0.19
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

Following 1H results, National Australia Bank will commence a new on-market buyback of up to $2.5bn, which Morgan Stanley estimates will lower the share count by around -2.5%.

Such capital management aides the bank's ambition to increase sustainable return on investment, points out the analyst.

The broker had already incorporated into its forecast a $2bn buyback at both the 1H FY22 and 1H FY23 results. The Equal-weight rating and $31.50 target are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $31.79 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.99, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

Following the announcement of the completion of National Australia Bank's $2.5bn share buyback, the bank will undertake a further $2.5bn share buyback, which Morgans expects to drive a CET1 ration of 11.5% by the end of FY23.

Given the announcement, Morgans lifts its earnings per share forecasts 0.8%, 1.7% and 1.4% through to FY24. 

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $30.50 from $30.00.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $31.79 Difference: minus $1.29 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.99, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett expected National Australia Bank's announcement of a further on-market buyback. While the broker had planned for $2bn instead of $2.5bn, the impact on the analyst's forecast has been partly offset by a higher buyback price than previously assumed.

The broker maintains its Accumulate rating and $33.50 target price.

Target price is $33.50 Current Price is $31.79 Difference: $1.71
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.99, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

Citi has resumed coverage of Newcrest Mining following the company's acquisition of the Pretium mine for US$2.7bn, including Brucejack which the broker describes as high grade and low cost with exploration upside.

Despite this, Citi does not immediately see Brucejack's alignment with Newcrest Mining's usual strategy for technology and innovation leveraging. In Citi's view, key to company outlook will be how long Pretium can sustain current grades and how the company manages the project's risky geology.

The broker resumes coverage with a Neutral rating and a target price of $29.00.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $26.00 Difference: $3
If NCM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.82, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Buy (1) -

After reviewing spot price valuations, Ord Minnett makes some brief observations on stocks within its mining sector coverage.

Despite geopolitical tension, the broker points out Gold names are seeing limited mark-to-market upgrades due to an immaterial response by the gold price.

The analyst retains its Buy rating and $29 target for Newcrest Mining.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $26.00 Difference: $3
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.82, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Buy (1) -

UBS anticipates disruption to Western Australian mining activity from increased covid-related absenteeism, with iron ore, lithium, nickel, alumina and gold exposed to the risk. However, the currently high pricing environment is considered to provide a welcome buffer.

UBS maintains its Buy rating and $26.50 target price for Newcrest Mining.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $26.00 Difference: $0.5
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.82, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Equal-weight (3) -

Since the last time Morgan Stanley updated for Origin Energy in early March, NSW FY23 electricity pool prices have risen to $120mwh from $95/mwh and FY24 and FY25 forwards have also followed higher.

The broker attributes higher prices to a number of factors including higher NSW coal prices and normalisation of demand post covid.

The broker only anticipates modest upside to the consensus FY23 EPS forecast for Origin Energy given management has pointed to a high degree of hedging already implemented. However upside in FY24 and FY25 could be material should elevated prices persist.

The Equal-weight rating and $6.06 target are maintained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $6.06 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.29, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Hold (3) -

While Morgans expects growth in iron ore pricing growth to slow the broker anticipates supply tightness will continue to support continuing strong earnings in the sector, maintaining the market remains strong with benchmark pricing of US$140-150 per tonne. 

While pressure is likely to be felt from surging fuel costs and labour and supply constraints, the broker doubts these will have significant impact on pricing.

The broker notes strong earnings from Rio Tinto are offset by the company's ongoing operational issues.

The Hold rating and target price of $107.00 are retained.

Target price is $107.00 Current Price is $116.01 Difference: minus $9.01 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $116.36, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Hold (3) -

After reviewing spot price valuations, Ord Minnett makes some brief observations on stocks within its mining sector coverage.

The broker points out iron ore majors are benefiting from higher iron ore and base metals prices with FY23 yields of 14-19%, while still having low multiples.

Ord Minnett maintains its Hold rating and $105 target price for Rio Tinto.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $116.01 Difference: minus $11.01 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $116.36, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Sell (5) -

UBS anticipates disruption to Western Australian mining activity from increased covid-related absenteeism, with iron ore, lithium, nickel, alumina and gold exposed to the risk.

The broker is monitoring shipping data to gain an appreciation as to how the iron ore producers are faring, and notes none of the iron ore majors have adjusted guidance as yet. The current high prices are seen as a welcome buffer.

UBS maintains its Sell rating and $90 target price.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $116.01 Difference: minus $26.01 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $116.36, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

After reviewing spot price valuations, Ord Minnett makes some brief observations on stocks within its mining sector coverage.

The broker points out aluminium play South32 has earnings (at spot prices) more than double the consensus estimate.

The Buy rating and $5 target are retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Buy (1) -

UBS anticipates disruption to Western Australian mining activity from increased covid-related absenteeism, with iron ore, lithium, nickel, alumina and gold exposed to the risk. However, the currently high pricing environment is considered to provide a welcome buffer.

UBS maintains its Buy rating and $7.00 target price for Sandfire Resources.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.63 Difference: $1.37
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.24, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGM as Buy (1) -

After reviewing spot price valuations, Ord Minnett makes some brief observations on stocks within its mining sector coverage.

Regarding steel, the broker points out Sims is jumping up the valuation charts due to surging scrap prices. Nonetheless, the $20 target price is retained. Buy.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $20.95 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.72, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SKC as Neutral (3) -

With New Zealand past its omicron peak and set to reopen international borders, SkyCity Entertainment is reportedly recruiting staff to prepare for improved operations. Credit Suisse's forecasts assume an easing of capacity restrictions from mid-April and recovery to pre-covid earnings in FY23.

Despite this, the broker does retain Auckland earnings expectations to capture limited mobility in the second half ahead of restriction removal. The broker modestly upgrades Adelaide's full year earnings forecast given company commentary on recovering conditions.

The Neutral rating and target price of $2.75 are retained.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.03
If SKC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SQ2 as Equal-weight (3) -

In research released yesterday, Morgan Stanley resumed coverage of Block. The broker is cautious on the longer-term ability to move upmarket, and feels a wider set of credit offerings is needed for Cash App/Afterpay.

The analyst values Square (the seller business) at around US$51/share and Cash App/Afterpay at US$95/share, arriving at a target price of US$146.

Morgan Stanley believes growth is priced-in and sets an Equal-weight rating. Industry view is rated Attractive.

Current Price is $183.80. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $230.00, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Santos and Carnarvon Energy ((CVN)) have reported an oil discovery at Pavo-1 in Western Australia, which has increased the value of the Dorado project, according to Macquarie.

The broker highlights that Santos shares currently look cheap, given they imply an oil price of US$52.5/bbl into perpetuity. The Outperform rating and $9.30 target are retained.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $7.89 Difference: $1.41
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SXL as Buy (1) -

Given Southern Cross Media's low gearing and solid free cash flow, UBS approves of the announced $40m share buyback. More buybacks may be in store, suggests the analyst, as management confirmed approaches had been made for the company's Television assets.

The share buyback mostly offsets the broker's lower earnings assumptions following the 1H results, which were released in February, and the target price fall to $2.45 from $2.50. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.7
If SXL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TUA as Overweight (1) -

Following 1H results for Tuas, Morgan Stanley still believes 40% earnings (EBITDA) margins are achievable in the longer-term and success in mobile can be replicated for broadband.

The result was a beat versus the analyst's estimate for active subscriptions, but a miss on margins due to higher operating expenses.

While the broker's earnings forecasts are lowered over FY22-24, due mainly to higher estimated electricity costs, management is looking at ways to cut costs to drive margin expansion.

Overweight retained and the target price rises to $2.20 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $0.34
If TUA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes the current 3-4% shelf inflation for supermarkets is unlikely to slow in the near-term, with ongoing supply chain issues and growing fuel and input costs.

The analyst feels the revenue benefit to supermarkets may be lessened as consumers go back to offices and consumption shifts to
out-of-home.

Calling upon historical data, the broker notes Staples tend to outperform the market in the case of monetary tightening and economic downturns. The broker maintains its preference for Coles Group ((COL)) and Metcash ((MTS)) in the space.

The $38.20 target and Neutral rating for Woolworths Group are maintained.

Target price is $38.20 Current Price is $36.42 Difference: $1.78
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.08, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources