Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates 29M as Hold (3) -

In updating on both Capricorn Copper and Golden Grove, 29Metals revealed what Ord Minnett describes as "a bumpy and expensive road to recovery".

The recovery at Capricorn Copper is forecast to cost materially more than previously expected. While the outlook for production at Golden Grove is in line with expectations over 2024-27, costs are also similarly higher than foreseen.

Despite an assumption the company will strip out discretionary capital, Ord Minnett continues to envisage pressure on the balance sheet. Earnings estimates for 2023 and  2024 are reduced by -41% and -38%, respectively.

Hold maintained. Target is again cut, to $0.85 from $1.35.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.21
If 29M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.03, suggesting upside of 50.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ABC as Neutral (3) -

Adbri did not provide first half guidance at its AGM but noted underlying profit for the four months to April is tracking significantly above
a year ago, albeit on an ex-property basis.

The group is enjoying the benefits of last year’s price increases, Macquarie notes, and expects to raise prices in 2023 across most product lines.

Adbri is now in a position to recoup cost and start rebuilding margins but the broker believes many uncertainties remain a drag on the thesis – management succession, the capex-heavy Kwinana project yet to complete, and a balance sheet relatively stretched.

Target rises to $2.00 from $1.65, Neutral retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.05
If ABC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ABC as Neutral (3) -

UBS welcomes the AGM update from Adbri and assesses the driver of the higher net profit cited for January-April 2023 was robust pricing discipline.

While FY23 earnings estimates are raised the broker notes cost headwinds persist and residential business remains patchy for the medium term. Margins are also expected tto be "well below normal" throughout FY23 and FY24.

Amid uncertain economic conditions and elevated gearing, the company is continuing to look for opportunities to recycle property assets.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $1.90 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APE as Buy (1) -

Eagers Automotive's trading update at its AGM was a slight miss against Bell Potter's expectations of some first half growth in profit.

Lower deliveries on key vehicle brands and two wet weather events in New Zealand, along with some cost pressures (e.g. interest costs on inventory) were responsible for the miss, explains the analyst.

More positively, management still expects full year revenue to grow by around $1bn. No first half guidance was issued.

The broker lowers its 2023 profit forecast and its target to $15.00 from $15.25. Buy.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.44 Difference: $2.56
If APE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.41, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APE as Neutral (3) -

UBS estimates Eagers Automotive is now past its peak in margins. The update from the AGM showed total revenue was up 9% for January to April which implies, in the broker's analysis, that underlying revenue was down -2% ex acquisitions and BYD.

The broker estimates EBITDA margins are down modestly. On the positive side, the order bank continues to grow because of constrained supply although feedback has signalled order writing rates are slowing while margins have begun declining earlier than anticipated.

Neutral rating and $13 target maintained.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.44 Difference: $0.56
If APE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.41, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CCX as Neutral (3) -

Citi's view is that City Chic Collective's trading update has corroborated the risk that was highlighted earlier by the broker on the basis of in-house data analysis.

The crucial factor in the fashion (?) retailer's recovery (exact timing unknown) will be how quickly the product margin can return to 60%, comments the broker. That margin was at 40% in H1 FY23.

Given extended clearance periods, Citi suspects customers have now been trained to purchase only on promotions.

Citi analysts are trying to adopt a supportive attitude, predicting the above mentioned margin will recover to mid 50% by FY25.

Also, the risk of an equity raising is now lower with bank covenant requirements extended to FY25, point out the analysts. Target drops to 45c from 56c. Neutral/High Risk.

Dividends are now not anticipated to return until FY25.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.05
If CCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.51, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CGC as Buy (1) -

At the Costa Group AGM, management provided a 2023 trading update including commentary that some farming costs are easing back from historical highs and labour availability has improved. Bell Potter believes the inflationary peak on farming costs has passed.

The analysts point out International is the primary driver of 1H earnings and the company believes the harvest in this segment is looking very promising. Strong profit results are emerging from both China and Morocco, above the broker's forecasts.

Bell Potter's Buy rating and $3.00 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.46
If CGC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.94, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes, while Costa Group provided no formal guidance at its AGM, growing conditions are seen generally improving in 2023.

Citrus remains the key swing factor as the season is three weeks late and the southern operations are experiencing some residual impact from high rainfall and low temperatures.

International is providing some offset with an exceptional season that is expected to deliver a record financial result in 2023.

Macquarie finds it is unlikely the impact of 2022 will be fully reversed in 2023. The broker reduces 2023 and 2024 estimates for earnings per share by -8% and -7%, respectively. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $2.86 from $2.82.

Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.32
If CGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.94, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett expects a strong result in 2023 is increasingly likely after the trading update at Costa Group's AGM. The broker maintains a 2023 adjusted EBITDA forecast of $264m, up 23% on 2022.

Ord Minnett notes the forecast El Nino typically reduces rainfall during winter and spring, leading to better crop yield and quality and the company's main farming areas. Cost pressures are also expected to ease. Accumulate rating and $3.10 target maintained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.56
If CGC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.94, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FPR as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on FleetPartners Group with a Buy rating and $2.75 target. The business generates cash and has multiple levers for growth in high-returning sectors, the broker observes.

From a valuation perspective the stock appears cheap, trading on 7.2x FY24 PE. Ord Minnett envisages potential for earnings to beat consensus estimates, driven by the benefit from higher value EVs in providing incremental returns in the ongoing shift to more warehouse funding.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.6
If FPR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FSF as Neutral (3) -

Fonterra Shareholders Fund has lifted full year earnings guidance by 11.5%, its third upgrade for the year.

Macquarie observes strong price relativities have continued over the third quarter which supports earnings upgrades, some of which could flow into the first half of FY24.

Still, the broker suggests risk around a possible global recession could impact demand.

Neutral retained. Target is raised to NZ$3.63 from NZ$3.42.

Current Price is $3.35. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Australian insurance gross written premiums (GWP) grew at a record pace in March, according to APRA statistics, supporting Morgan Stanley's positive stance on insurers. It's noted strong pricing has coincided with less challenging weather conditions.

However, the broker points out reserve top-ups were a negative trend that emerged in March. Reserves reversed from a $986m release in the December 2022 quarter to -$554m of top-ups in the March quarter.

Morgan Stanley prefers the Overweight-rated QBE Insurance and Suncorp Group in the space. 

The Equal-weight rating and $4.75 target for Insurance Australia Group are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Sell (5) -

UBS notes in the insurance industry there are mixed trends. Claims costs have risen sharply from a relatively high base while motor claims are also high.

On the other hand, repricing momentum exists in almost all major lines and sets up FY24 profitability for the listed insurers.

Insurance Australia Group is the broker's least preferred general insurer with a greater downside risk to earnings and an expensive valuation. Sell rating and $4.30 target maintained.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IRE as Resume Coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett resumes coverage of Iress with a Hold rating and $10 target. Future earnings drivers are expected to include new organic business, product up selling, price increases and cost reductions.

The business is considered in "reasonable" financial health because of its highly recurring revenue as well as lower capital intensity relative to typical industrials.

Yet Ord Minnett believes financial leverage and interest cover are "sub optimal" because of excessive shareholder payouts, averaging around 90% of segment profit less operating depreciation and tax at 30% over the last five years.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.31 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If IRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.08, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie assesses offshore trends represent a negative forward indicator for Australasia. Promotional activity is still affecting gross margins and stock reductions are still required.

The broker is cautious as KMD Brands needs to defend tough 2022 comparables, and forecasts EBITDA margin percentages in the "low teens" over FY24-25 and below the company's 15% target. Neutral rating maintained. Target is 97c.

Target price is $0.97 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: minus $0.055 (current price is over target).
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

UBS is conscious that the market has not fully factored in a lower outlook for rare earths pricing with the NdPr price down -35% in the year to date and spot trading at US$60/kg, leading to it lowering FY23/24 forecasts by -2/-20%.

Lynas Rare Earths has recently announced that the Malaysian government has varied its licence, with an extension to continue cracking and leaching until at least January 1, 2024.

This is welcome news, UBS asserts, as it allows more time for the ramp up at Kalgoorlie. FY23 production estimates are largely unchanged while the broker increases FY24 estimates by 92%. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $8.60 from $8.40.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.42 Difference: $1.18
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.18, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi's upgrade to Buy/High Risk from Neutral comes with the added comment the analysts do not expect key financial metrics to improve anytime soon and execution risks remain.

But there is some AI exposure and there could be upside to management's guidance for FY24, the analysts surmise. Further cost cutting should remove balance sheet concerns.

Forecasts have been reduced for FY23 (larger losses) but increased for FY24 for a larger than previously predicted positive EPS.

Above all, Citi observes the shares are trading at sizable discount to high-growth peers. Target price lifts to $7.40 from $7.05.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $0.96
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.22, suggesting upside of 35.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

As the share price has moved through the trigger level Ord Minnett upgrades National Australia Bank to Accumulate from Hold. Target is $30.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.04 Difference: $3.96
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.30, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PEB as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes FY23 results revealed solid revenue growth while Pacific Edge provided no quantitative guidance.

The broker believes the company is allocating capital in the right way but a potential loss of coverage is a significant overhang for investors.

Macquarie warns investors should stay cautious until there is clarity around the Novitas LCD proposal, which has potential to disrupt reimbursement for patients with Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans in the US.

Neutral rating and NZ$0.48 target retained. Estimates for earnings per share are raised by 5% and 4% for FY24 and FY25, respectively.

Current Price is $0.38. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

Australian insurance gross written premiums (GWP) grew at a record pace in March, according to APRA statistics, supporting Morgan Stanley's positive stance on insurers. It's noted strong pricing has coincided with less challenging weather conditions.

However, the broker points out reserve top-ups were a negative trend that emerged in March. Reserves reversed from a $986m release in the December 2022 quarter to -$554m of top-ups in the March quarter.

Morgan Stanley prefers the Overweight-rated QBE Insurance (target $17) and Suncorp Group in the space. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.53 Difference: $2.47
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.13, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

As the share price has moved through the trigger level Ord Minnett upgrades QBE Insurance to Hold from Lighten. Target is $13.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $14.53 Difference: minus $1.53 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.13, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

UBS notes in the insurance industry there are mixed trends. Claims costs have risen sharply from a relatively high base while motor claims are also high.

On the other hand, repricing momentum exists in almost all major lines and sets up FY24 profitability for the listed insurers.

UBS believes a "high-teens" return on equity is likely in the current year and is not priced into the stock.

QBE Insurance is the broker's preferred name in the sector and a Buy rating and $18 target are maintained.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $14.53 Difference: $3.47
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.13, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Sandfire Resources has delivered first copper concentrate from Motheo. Progress on the ramp up will be in focus in the near term, Macquarie asserts.

The company has strong exposure to spot prices and, the broker calculates, in a spot price scenario in FY24 trades on an EV/EBITDA of 4.6x and free cash flow yield of 10%.

Outperform rating and $7.30 target maintained.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: $1.81
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.91, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SIG as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

As the Sigma Healthcare share price has moved through the trigger level, Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten. Target is $0.63.

Target price is $0.63 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.57, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SKC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes profitability is continuing to surge following the disruptions from the pandemic. SkyCity Entertainment has lowered FY23 underlying EBITDA guidance to NZ$300m from NZ$310m.

The broker observes the general trend across all the casinos continues, as strong gaming machine performance offsets a more gradual recovery in table gambling.

Still, regulatory headwinds persist and the broker expects fines of around NZ$50m, as the Adelaide casino faces money laundering investigations, although the company appears to have so far avoided the reputation damage that has marred Star Entertainment ((SGR)) and Crown Resorts.

Hold rating and $3.50 target maintained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $1.39
If SKC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Australian insurance gross written premiums (GWP) grew at a record pace in March, according to APRA statistics, supporting Morgan Stanley's positive stance on insurers. It's noted strong pricing has coincided with less challenging weather conditions.

However, the broker points out reserve top-ups were a negative trend that emerged in March. Reserves reversed from a $986m release in the December 2022 quarter to -$554m of top-ups in the March quarter.

Morgan Stanley prefers the Overweight-rated Suncorp Group (target $14.50) and QBE Insurance in the space. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: $1.65
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.59, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

UBS notes in the insurance industry there are mixed trends. Claims costs have risen sharply from a relatively high base while motor claims are also high.

On the other hand, repricing momentum exists in almost all major lines and sets up FY24 profitability for the listed insurers.

Suncorp Group is restoring profitability but in the broker's view will likely remain a binary prospect until the sale of the bank is finalised.

Buy rating and $15 target maintained.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: $2.15
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.59, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Following yesterday's trading update, Citi has cut EPS forecast by -5%. The broker finds the disappointing update was consistent with its own recent data analysis corroborating deteriorating conditions for the US market.

Citi sees limited signs of a turnaround for the 19 Crimes label. Gets also a mention: packaging material inflation.

Target price loses -11% to $12.75. Neutral.

Target price is $12.75 Current Price is $11.76 Difference: $0.99
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.23, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Outperform (1) -

Treasury Wine has announced a review of its premium brands. Management will restructure and adjust its operating model as volumes decline.

Macquarie notes demand in the US for entry-level premium wine has continued to deteriorate and 19 Crimes in particular has underperformed expectations.

The broker reduces forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by -4.5% and -6.1%, respectively. Target is lowered to $13.90 from $14.90. Despite the deteriorating operating conditions, Macquarie remains bullish on the near-term prospects in China and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $11.76 Difference: $2.14
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.23, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates issued FY23 earnings (EBITS) guidance which was -3% lower than the consensus forecast, and confirmed ongoing weaker sales trends for entry-level premium wine in the America division.

Demand for luxury wine remains strong across all markets, observes the analysts, with sales across all divisions in line with expectations.

Morgan Stanley lowers its target to $14.70 from $15.40 to reflect the weaker earnings outlook. The Overweight rating is kept on an improving margin profile, growth potential and upside from the potential removal of China tariffs. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $11.76 Difference: $2.94
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.23, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates provided a FY23 performance outlook with FY23 earnings (EBIT) guidance around -2.3% below the consensus forecast due to a further decline in low-margin sales, explains Morgans.

The weakness in low-margin sales was most evident for Treasury Americas and its 19 Crimes portfolio, while high-margin Luxury wine sales remain strong and in line with the broker's expectations.

There is potential for weakness at Treasury Americas to continue into FY24, believe the analysts, and cost of goods sold (COGS) pressures are building at Treasury Premium Brands.

Morgans' rating is downgraded to Hold from Add given near-term uncertainty over a weaker consumer, and the target falls to $12.80 from $15.05.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.76 Difference: $1.04
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.23, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

As the share price has moved through the trigger level Ord Minnett upgrades Treasury Wine Estates to Hold from Lighten. Target is $11.50.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.76 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.23, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates has signalled FY23 guidance that is well below expectations with declines in the Americas and premium brands offset by growth in Penfolds.

UBS observes the business is enduring category and company-specific issues in sub US$15/bottle premium wine. A key risk is that this category could be challenged for the longer term such as is the case for commercial wines, although this is not in the broker's base case.

UBS reduces FY23-24 estimates by -5-14%. Buy rating maintained. Target is lowered  to $13.75 from $15.00.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $11.76 Difference: $1.99
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.23, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TYR as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

As the share price has moved through the trigger level Ord Minnett upgrades Tyro Payments to Buy from Accumulate. Target is $2.60.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $1.44
If TYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 124% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 68.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates VHT as Buy (1) -

FY23 revenue growth of 34% for Volpara Health Technologies exceeded the top-end of guidance by NZ$0.5m. After adjusting for a currency tailwind, Bell Potter notes constant currency growth was 20%.

The broker highlights record growth in contracted annual revenues and tight control of operating expenses, despite high inflation levels in the US.

Management expects FY24 revenues in the range of NZ$40m-$42m and around breakeven for earnings (EBITDA).

The target rises to $1.20 from $1.10. Buy.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.51
If VHT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

Largely pre-released FY23 results for Volpara Health Technologies revealed revenue of NZ$35m, which was slightly ahead of guidance and Morgans forecast. Subscription revenue of NZ$33.6m represented 96% of total sales.

Management issued FY24 revenue guidance of NZ$40-42m, which would be 15- 20% growth on FY23, and guided to potential earnings (EBITDA) breakeven for the period.

The target slips to $1.20 from $1.21 and the Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.51
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

Westgold Resources' flagship Big Bell mine has been running at 10% above nameplate over the past year, Macquarie observes. Following a site tour the broker considers the Deeps expansion increasingly likely.

Exploration potential at Bluebird also appears compelling and the eventual output could exceed the current target. Management has reiterated FY23 production and cost guidance.

The Outperform rating and $1.90 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.57 Difference: $0.33
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources