Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ABP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Abacus Property is rated Neutral with price target of $2.66.

Target price is $2.66 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If ABP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett increases its 2022 EPS forecast for Ampol by 13% following a 4Q trading update that revealed a higher than expected Lytton refiner margin. The FY23 EPS forecast was also increased by 14% after a material rally in Singapore refiner margin futures.

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research by Morningstar. The target falls to $34.50 from the last entry of $37.40 (by JP Morgan) in the FNArena database in late-October last year. Buy.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $29.60 Difference: $4.9
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.37, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMC as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett has cut its rating for Amcor to Hold from Accumulate on valuation.

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research by Morningstar. The target falls to $17 from the last entry of $19.30 (by JP Morgan) in the FNArena database in early-November last year.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $17.31 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.67, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Arena REIT is rated Neutral with price target of $3.94.

Target price is $3.94 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.11
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Hold (3) -

While a new analyst takes up research on ASX with a lower target, recent news flow implies the company is starting on a fresh footing after last year's clearing house woes. The company has announced a full reassessment of the CHESS project.

With the shares trading near fair value, the broker retains a Hold rating.

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research by Morningstar. The target falls to $66.00 from the last entry of $77.00 (by JP Morgan) in the FNArena database in mid-December last year.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $69.29 Difference: minus $3.29 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $71.27, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AWC as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Post AWAC JV partner Alcoa's latest market update, in which the company lowered its guidance for 2023, Citi analysts have downgraded Alumina Ltd to Sell from Neutral.

Target price loses -10c to $1.50.

The most important statement is probably the following: On Citi's revised 2023 alumina price forecast of US$345/t (up from US$338/t) Alumina Ltd will be near break-even and thus unlikely to pay a dividend.

A stronger Aussie dollar is also a negative. The good news is Citi is projecting a return of dividends in 2024, currently estimated at US9.7c.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: minus $0.085 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie considers the 4Q2022 trading update from Alcoa as "mixed" with AWAC's bauxite production coming in 3% higher than expectations and alumina -6% below the broker's forecasts. 

Alumina Ltd is JV partner of Alcoa in AWAC, which is the sole operation it derives income from.

Realised prices and operating cash costs were better than expected, however, Macquarie does not forecast a final dividend for Alumina Ltd due to the "limited" US$4.6m cash distribution.

Earnings forecasts are lowered by -23% for FY23 after adjustments for lower bauxite grades at Huntly and decreased capacity at Kwinana.

Underperform rating and $1.00 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: minus $0.585 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes most of the bad news is already incorporated in the Alumina Ltd share price, following a lower than expected 4Q profit result from AWAC JV partner Alcoa in the US.

Negative issues for the 4Q included restricted gas availability, lower bauxite mine production and reduced European production, which the broker believes will continue into 2023. Morgan Stanley's previously forecast for a US1.3cps 2H dividend now seems unlikely.

Despite this outlook, the analysts retain an Overweight rating as 2022 finished with the alumina market in balance, and lower 2023 production should result in a tighter market and rising prices. There's also considered scope for operational improvements.

The target rises to $1.75 from $1.70. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.165
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as No Rating (-1) -

Citi analysts spotted a robust production report from BHP Group, but also with evidence of rising cost pressures. Disappointment came via nickel (slow refinery ramp-up post maintenance).

Management kept guidance for FY23 intact, though implicit downgrades were given for Escondida and BMA, the broker points out. Higher costs are becoming a feature.

Citi is under research restrictions for BHP Group, so no rating or price target.

Current Price is $49.68. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $44.18, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie liked the 2Q23 trading update from BHP Group with better than expected results for iron ore, copper and coal, although volumes for nickel were -20% lower than anticipated and -14% below the previous quarter.

Earnings forecasts have been marginally adjusted for the update with a 4% increase for FY23 and less than 1% for FY24.

BHP Group reconfirmed FY23 production guidance although Escondida and BMA are shifting to the lower end of the range. Management also maintained cost guidance, excluding coal which is raised 5%.

Outperform rating is retained and the target is raised to $52 from $50.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $49.68 Difference: $2.32
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.18, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Second quarter production of WA iron ore exceeded Morgan Stanley's forecast and met coal was in line. While the quarter was considered operationally strong, cost pressures became apparent in WA.

Costs are rising due to tightness in the WA labour market and high consumables and diesel prices, explained management.

No changes were made to FY23 production guidance. The Equal-weight rating and $42.55 target are unchanged. Sector view is Attractive.

Target price is $42.55 Current Price is $49.68 Difference: minus $7.13 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.18, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -

While BHP Group's 2Q result impressed Morgans, particularly in light of many headwinds (mainly tight labour markets), FY23 estimates are revised down. 

These lower estimates are countered by an increase in the broker's long-term iron price forecast, which is raised to US$72/t from US$65/t. The target rises to $47.00 from $45.00. 

The rating remains at Hold as the analyst believes the company's shares are trading around fair value.

Western Australian iron ore posted record production for the 1H, but unit costs are expected to come in above the guidance range. The same is expected for unit costs at the BHP Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) coal assets and the NSW Energy Coal (NSWEC) portfolio.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $49.68 Difference: minus $2.68 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.18, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett updates its commodity price assumptions across the Resources sector following a general rise in prices over the final quarter of 2022.

Over this period, the impetus from further China stimulus and government support for the property sector outweighed the impact of rising global interest rates, explains the broker.

The analyst increases its iron ore price forecast and raises the target for Hold-rated BHP Group to $39.50 from $36.00.

Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $49.68 Difference: minus $10.18 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.18, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Challenger's outlook might still be boosted by higher interest rates, Citi's update highlights there are equally a number of negatives on the horizon.

The combination of pros and cons still leaves the broker thinking the negatives will outweigh the positives. Downgrade to Sell from Neutral.

Among the negatives cited are higher costs, pressure on property values, and negative returns for alternatives and equities in the broker's marking to market.

The fact the share price has been on a run recently doesn't exactly help either. Target has gained 10c to $7.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.96, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Charter Hall  is rated Outperform with price target of $14.81.

Target price is $14.81 Current Price is $13.14 Difference: $1.67
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.76, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Centuria Industrial REIT is rated Neutral with price target of $3.25.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0
If CIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT is rated Neutral with price target of $4.34.

Target price is $4.34 Current Price is $4.54 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.62, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CQR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Charter Hall Retail REIT is rated Outperform with price target of $4.30.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.4
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWP as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans expects lower demand across key greenfield land markets for residential property developer Cedar Woods Properties as the market eases back from a strong 2021/22 and rising interest rates weigh.

The broker lowers its rating to Hold from Add though points out the company should benefit in the medium term from increased migration and the ongoing lack of affordable housing.

The analyst suggests buying shares when either they approach $4.00 (currently $4.46) or when Morgans identifies lower risks to earnings forecasts. 

The target falls to $4.80 from $4.98.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $0.34
If CWP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DDR as Overweight (1) -

Dicker Data has made the list of key small/mid cap ideas as the February reporting season approaches, where Morgan Stanley has conviction on earnings and outperformance into 2023.

The broker feels its 2023 forecasts look achievable as easing supply chains will stabilise working capital and momentum from 3Q organic growth gathers momentum into the 4Q.

The Overweight rating and $13.00 target are unchanged.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.00 Difference: $2
If DDR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Underperform (5) -

In an attempt to offset rising costs, Domino's Pizza Enterprises announced an increase in menu prices for some parts of Australia notes Macquarie.

There are no changes to earnings forecasts with the broker remaining skeptical about the impact on demand post the price increases, however, it is noted that franchisee profits could improve.

Macquarie considers the guided 8-10% organic growth seems ambitious, especially for Europe.

Underperform rating and $60 target are retained.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $73.55 Difference: minus $13.55 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $75.57, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Outperform (1) -

With regards to Deterra Royalties, Macquarie notes that Mining Area C production came in -2% below expectations and -2% below the previous quarter, although BHP Group ((BHP)) expects the grade variability to stabilise with full ramp up and deeper penetration into the ore body.

The broker views the dividend yield as "attractive" and estimates $50m in royalty receipts for the 2Q23 post $50m in royalties in the 1Q23, while a rebound in iron ore prices is offering an upbeat outlook for FY24 and FY25.

Deterra Royalties' 1H23 result is due to be announced on February 17. An Outperform rating and $4.90 target price are retained.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.1
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Dexus Industria REIT is rated Outperform with price target of $3.08.

Target price is $3.08 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.1
If DXI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Dexus is rated Outperform with price target of $9.03.

Target price is $9.03 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $1.07
If DXS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.05, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett updates its commodity price assumptions across the Resources sector following a general rise in prices over the final quarter of 2022.

Over this period, the impetus from further China stimulus and government support for the property sector outweighed the impact of rising global interest rates, explains the broker.

The analyst increases its iron ore price forecast though trims its target price for Lighten-rated Fortescue Metals (without explanation)

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research by Morningstar. The target falls to $15.00 from the last entry of $16.00 (by JP Morgan) in the FNArena database in mid-December last year.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: minus $7.58 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.26, suggesting downside of -28.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Goodman Group is rated Outperform with price target of $21.28.

Target price is $21.28 Current Price is $19.19 Difference: $2.09
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.35, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOZ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Growthpoint Properties Australia is rated Outperform with price target of $3.34.

Target price is $3.34 Current Price is $3.17 Difference: $0.17
If GOZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.62, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

GPT Group is rated Outperform with price target of $4.74.

Target price is $4.74 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $0.26
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HCW as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie reassesses the outlook for HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT.

The broker forecasts FY23 guidance is likely to be achieved with higher funding costs offset by the earnings addition from recent acquisitions.

However, reported liquidity concerns around GenesisCare which accounts for 12% of portfolio income could remain a negative for the group.

Although the stock is trading at a -12% discount to the reported $2.01 NTA, Macquarie expects a fall in asset values and higher corporate costs will offset the benefits of any development revaluations.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target is adjusted to $1.76 from $1.66 due a change in cap rate assumptions.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If HCW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HDN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT is rated Outperform with price target of $1.40.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.095
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HMC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

HMC Capital is rated Neutral with price target of $5.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.52 Difference: $0.48
If HMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses a strong 2Q result by Hub24 showing relative outperformance compared to peers when comparisons are made of net flows as a percentage of starting funds under administration (FUA).

In the face of volatile investment markets the company net flows were robust, according to the analyst. Net platform inflows were $2.8bn, in line with the broker's forecast.

The Buy rating and $33 target are maintained.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $25.04 Difference: $7.96
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.01, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades Insurance Australia Group to Equal-weight from Underweight on stronger earnings forecasts as premium price increases are expected to outpace rising input costs.

The broker points out the company's multiples are undemanding, La Nina has likely ended and longer-term action on climate resilience has commenced.

Suncorp Group is preferred by Morgan Stanley over QBE Insurance and Insurance Australia Group.

An updated target price is awaited (last $4.20). Industry View: In-Line. 

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett updates its commodity price assumptions across the Resources sector following a general rise in prices over the final quarter of 2022.

Over this period, the impetus from further China stimulus and government support for the property sector outweighed the impact of rising global interest rates, explains the broker.

Despite higher mineral sands prices (which offset a stronger currency), a change of analyst results in a cut to the rating of Iluka Resources to Hold from Buy.

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research by Morningstar. The target remains at $11.00 which is also the last target (by JP Morgan) in the FNArena database set in late-October last year.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.69 Difference: $0.31
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.83, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Buy (1) -

Citi reiterates its Buy rating for Imdex while lifting its price target to $2.92 from $2.70 following the acquisition of Devico about which the broker is noticeably excited.

Citi highlights Devico's track record of revenue growth and margin expansion. In addition, the broker believes Imdex's recent trading update delivered more proof of resilient tailwinds for the business.

Including the acquisition in forward modeling, Citi's FY23 and FY24 EBITDA forecasts have lifted by 9% and 30%, respectively.

Target price is $2.92 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.45
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHG as Sell (5) -

Looking forward to Feb 2, when Janus Henderson is scheduled to update the market with its Q4 performance, Citi analysts believe less funds outflows from retail investors will be the highlight of that update.

But the broker is by no means suggesting a turnaround is about to be revealed. Large institutional outflows (-US$7bn) stemming from mandate losses will continue to weigh on the numbers.

Also, Citi speculates whether keeping a listing in Australia still makes much sense, given little appetite among local investors. Target price has crept up to $31 from $30.60. Sell.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $38.00 Difference: minus $7 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.65, suggesting downside of -17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Lendlease Group is rated Neutral with price target of $8.74.

Target price is $8.74 Current Price is $8.34 Difference: $0.4
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.93, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Outperform (1) -

Liontown Resources today announced changes to the scope of the Kathleen Valley development with cost inflation responsible for a 64% increase in the capex budget for the project.

Macquarie, in an initial response to the announcement, says the increase in capex is much larger than expected (putting pressure on the share price post announcement).

While the company has sufficient cash to finance construction through to the end of 2023, management will assess funding requirements later in the year.

The broker's base case assumes a 2.5mtpa throughput expanding to 4.0mtpa as part of a Stage 2 expansion. Outperform rating, $3.40 target.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $1.9
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 127% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MCR as Outperform (1) -

Mincor Resources has started underground drilling at Cassini and reported positive drilling results at the Northern Operations of both Durkin North and the Golden Mile (LN04a) notes Macquarie.

More details are expected with the 2Q23 production report, due to be announced in late January.

There are no changes to earnings estimates at this stage. The Outperform rating and $1.80 target are retained.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.115
If MCR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie reassesses the outlook for Mirvac Group with uncertainty regarding the outlook and recovery in the residential markets increasing the risks to FY24 earnings.

The broker notes their FY24 forecasts are -6% below consensus due to an expected $40m reduction in commercial development profits. although residential pre-sales could provide a buffer.

Based on the in-house macro economic forecast that interest rates will not be cut in 2023, Macquarie envisages a PER re-rating will not transpire in the near term, as multiple expansion for housing related companies typically occurs 6-8 months prior to any rate reduction.

The next catalyst for Mirvac Group is the 1H23 results due on February 9.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

A $2.30 target is retained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.03
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considers the November 2022 Medicare statistics for Monash IVF.

Total cycles were -13% below the previous year, although November 2021 was the highest on record and the month-on-month decline was more moderate at -2%.

The broker continues to like the stock and expects Monash IVF to grow market share through organic growth and recent acquisitions in FY23. Earnings forecasts are unchanged.

Outperform rating and $1.30 target price retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.04 Difference: $0.26
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAN as Sell (5) -

Nanosonics' pre-announced interim result proved significantly better-than-expected, comment analysts at Citi. While not all details were disclosed, the broker points out this is the first full-year when devices have been sold directly into the US.

Management also upgraded guidance for FY23 with the EBIT range at the midpoint $18m compared with market consensus at $8m. Citi has thus substantially increased its forecasts.

Target price lifts to $4.60 which consists of $3.30 for the underlying business and $1.30 for new products, the broker explains. Alas, share price valuation remains a problem, so no change to the Sell rating.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.12 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If NAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.60, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAN as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Following a strong 1H trading update by Nanosonics and revised FY23 guidance, Morgans raises its near-term forecasts though lowers its rating to Hold from Add after recent share price strength.

Management increased FY23 guidance for total revenue growth to 36-41% from 20-25%, yet the analyst remains at the bottom end of this range, awaiting more detail. The split of the upgrade between currency, direct sales mix and consumables is considered unclear.

Regardless, the broker feels the update will alleviate concerns regarding the transition to direct sales away from the pass-through relationship with General Electric.

The target rises to $5.19 from $4.91.

Target price is $5.19 Current Price is $5.12 Difference: $0.07
If NAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.60, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAN as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett cuts its rating for Nanosonics to Lighten from Hold on valuation, despite evidence of improvement within stronger-than-expected pre-announced 1H results.

The broker expects the rate of growth in installed base units will slow over the next five years to average 6.8% from the five-year historical average of 16.2% as a result of an increasingly mature North American market.

In addition, the analyst expects increasing competition once the Trophon device patent expires in 2025.

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research by Morningstar. The target remains at $4.00, unchanged from the price set by JP Morgan in the FNArena database in late-November last year.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $5.12 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If NAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.60, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates its commodity price assumptions across the Resources sector following a general rise in prices over the final quarter of 2022.

Over this period, the impetus from further China stimulus and government support for the property sector outweighed the impact of rising global interest rates, explains the broker.

Ord Minnett regards Buy-rated Newcrest Mining as the cheapest stock under its coverage of the Resources sector, trading at a -27% discount to its $31.00 target price.

The broker forecasts gold will average around US$1,810oz from 2023 to 2025.

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research by Morningstar. The new target has increased from the last entry of $22.00 (by JP Morgan) in the FNArena database in mid-November last year.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $22.54 Difference: $8.46
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.38, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

Second quarter results for Navigator Global Investments revealed asset under management (AUM) growth for each of Lighthouse Partners, the NGI Strategic Portfolio and Longreach. Overall performance for the quarter was also seen as reasonable.

The broker maintains its Buy rating and lowers its target to $1.95 from $2.00, after modest changes to forecasts following the quarterly results.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.76
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NSR as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

National Storage REIT is rated Underperform with price target of $1.93.

Target price is $1.93 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If NSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Northern Star Resources' quarterly production proved in line, comments Citi, containing no surprises and keeping organic growth on track.

Among the positives cited is decent cost control despite challenges from high staff turnover. Realised AUD gold realisation lifted
by circa $40/oz to $2531/oz.

EBITDA forecast has been reduced -6% in FY23 after the results. Neutral. Target $12.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.16 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.16, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses a solid 2Q for Northern Star Resources with production and sales beating forecasts and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) were in line.

Detracting from this performance, higher than forecast non-cash inventory charges as well a a higher D&A expense combine to reduce the broker's FY23 EPS forecast by -27%.

For FY24, the EPS forecast rises by 5% from changes in hedging. Forecasts increase by around 1% in outer years. The target remains at $14.00. Outperform.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.16 Difference: $1.84
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.16, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Northern Star Resources' production and costs in the 2Q were in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts and management retained FY23 guidance.

The broker highlights the WA-based gold mine Thunderbox Hill is on-track to operate at nameplate capacity of 6Mtpa in the 2H of FY23.

The Equal-weight rating and $10.90 target are unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $12.16 Difference: minus $1.26 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.16, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Buy (1) -

After allowing for a solid 2Q activities report, Ord Minnett raises its target to $12.80 from $12.40 on higher forecast cash flows and after rolling forward the broker's financial model for Northern Star Resources.

The analyst expects the company to outperform its ASX-listed peers in the current quarter due to the broker's strong EPS, free cash flow and margin growth forecasts.

In addition to these strong forecast metrics, Ord Minnett notes a modest valuation and a strong balance sheet and has confidence in management execution. Buy.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $12.16 Difference: $0.64
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.16, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Accumulate (2) -

Netwealth Group's flows for the 2Q were lower than Ord Minnett was expecting and management lowered FY23 net flow guidance to $11bn from $11-13bn previously. The target slips to $13.50 from $14.40.

While disappointed by the quarter, the analyst cuts some slack for management due to difficult macroeconomic conditions and maintains  faith in the company's medium-term outlook. Accumulate.

More positively, funds under advice (FUA) increased by 7.4% for the quarter a slight beat against the broker's forecast.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.65 Difference: $0.85
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.93, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NXL as Equal-weight (3) -

Pre-announced 1H results for Nuix revealed a return to growth for revenue and annualised contract value (ACV), along with cost reductions.

Management's 1H FY23 ACV guidance was around 6.5% ahead of Morgan Stanley's forecast, while statutory earnings (EBITDA) guidance was a 10% beat.

While the broker expects ongoing stock price volatility until legal matters are cleared, the 1H result is considered a constructive start by the new management team.

The target rises to $1.00 from 90c. Equal-weight. Sector view is Attractive.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.06
If NXL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Outperform (1) -

Paladin Energy continues to target the 1Q of 2024 for first production from the Langer Heinrich mine, as work progresses toward a restart.

Yesterday the company released a 2Q report which also provided details on the successful execution of two previously announced  uranium offtake agreements, and a new agreement with China National Nuclear Corp for up to 3.4mlb to be supplied in 2024 and 2025.

Macquarie points out the company is fully funded to execute its restart plan and retains its Outperform rating and $1.00 target.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.265
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Buy (1) -

Citi's positive view seems to have been further confirmed with the company's December quarter production report release. The broker suggests the quarter makes achieving guidance for the year seem rather easy for Pilbara Minerals.

Higher realised prices have triggered further upgrades to the broker's forecasts. Target price gains 10c to $4.80. Buy rating retained as the broker awaits Pilbara's next leg of growth.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: $0.78
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.64, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Pilbara Minerals has left its FY23 production and capex guidance unchanged when presenting its 2Q results, which revealed production and shipments 16% and 4% higher than Macquarie expected. Guidance will be updated at 1H results in February.

The analyst notes solid price realisation and cost performance resulted in strong cash generation for the quarter.

The broker leaves its $7.50 target unchanged after making minor increases to earnings forecasts. Outperform.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: $3.48
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.64, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPS as Buy (1) -

While acknowledging the impact of volatile investment markets upon Praemium's 2Q net flow result, Ord Minnett now feels FY23 flow guidance will be a stretch and lowers EPS forecasts by -2-6% over the forecast period. The target falls to 95c from $1.00.

The broker keeps its Buy rating with a view to the market share growth opportunity from potential customer experience improvements. A more simple business model following the sale of the International business is also thought to increase Praemium's takeover appeal.

The Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.165
If PPS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Overweight (1) -

Perpetual, earlier today, updated the market and judging from Morgan Stanley's initial response, the numbers are well ahead of consensus forecasts.

The report showed the smallest outflows in 15 months, the broker points out. At the midpoint, guidance for H1 is some 15% ahead of consensus, though merely in line with Morgan Stanley's estimate.

Overweight rating and $29.80 target. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $29.80 Current Price is $26.40 Difference: $3.4
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.70, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Qualitas is rated Outperform with price target of $3.28.

Target price is $3.28 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.68
If QAL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley raises earnings forecasts for Australian General Insurers as premium price increases are expected to outpace rising input costs.

The broker points out the company's multiples are undemanding, La Nina has likely ended and longer-term action on climate resilience has commenced.

The Overweight rating is maintained for QBE Insurance.

Suncorp Group (Overwight) is preferred by Morgan Stanley over QBE Insurance and Insurance Australia Group (Equal-weight).

An updated target price is awaited (last $17). Industry View: In-Line. 

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $13.44 Difference: $3.56
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.01, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RGN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Region Group is rated Neutral with price target of $2.54.

Target price is $2.54 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If RGN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.78, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett updates its commodity price assumptions across the Resources sector following a general rise in prices over the final quarter of 2022.

Over this period, the impetus from further China stimulus and government support for the property sector outweighed the impact of rising global interest rates, explains the broker.

The analyst increases its iron ore price forecast and raises the target for Lighten-rated Rio Tinto to $107 from $99.

Target price is $107.00 Current Price is $125.96 Difference: minus $18.96 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $115.71, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett updates its commodity price assumptions across the Resources sector following a general rise in prices over the final quarter of 2022.

Over this period, the impetus from further China stimulus and government support for the property sector outweighed the impact of rising global interest rates, explains the broker.

Despite stronger aluminium, alumina and manganese prices, a change of analyst results in a cut to the broker's rating for South32 to Hold from Buy.

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research by Morningstar. The target rises to $4.40 from the last entry of $4.10 (by JP Morgan) in the FNArena database in mid-December last year.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SCG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Scentre Group is rated Underperform with price target of $2.55.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has used a general sector update to reiterate its cautious view on A-REITs this year. Traditionally, states the broker, the sector typically underperforms in the early stages of recessions.

While the US is projected to be in recession sometime in H1, Australia is not following the same script, but the local economy will slow nevertheless, assures the broker.

As the rate cycle shifts throughout 2023 on the back of lower economic growth, Macquarie intends to become more positive on REITs, intending to upweight to cyclicals "on weakness".

Short-term, the broker sees upside risk to FY23 guidances, but preaches caution ahead of the August reporting season. Sector favourites are Goodman Group, GPT, Qualitas, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Dexus Industria REIT and Growthpoint Properties.

Best to avoid: Scentre Group and National Storage.

Stockland is rated Neutral with price target of $3.60.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reduces its target to $10.00 from $10.30 following an in-line 4Q production report from Santos, as ongoing outages at WA-based gas assets resulted in a -2% downgrade to FY23 guidance. 

The broker, however, retains its Outperform rating and notes further capital returns may be in prospect given the company's low gearing level and strong free cashflows forecast for 2023.

Apart from capital management, the analyst suggests other share price catalysts may lead to a rerate in the 1H of FY23 including the completion of the PNG selldown and approval for drilling at the Barossa gas project.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.24 Difference: $2.76
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.61, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -

The recent 4Q production report for Santos revealed better price realisation than Ord Minnett expected, while production was a slight miss due to a temporary shutdown of a platform in WA for unplanned maintenance.

As project delivery is supporting ongoing strong free cash flows and shareholder returns, the broker feels Santos shares are materially undervalued 

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research by Morningstar. The target rises to $12 from the last entry of $8.60 (by JP Morgan) in the FNArena database in early-November last year.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $7.24 Difference: $4.76
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.61, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades Suncorp Group to Overweight from Equal-weight on stronger earnings forecasts as premium price increases are expected to outpace rising input costs.

The broker points out the company's multiples are undemanding, La Nina has likely ended and longer-term action on climate resilience has commenced.

Suncorp Group is preferred by Morgan Stanley over QBE Insurance and Insurance Australia Group.

An updated target price is awaited (last $11.30). Industry View: In-Line. 

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $12.36 Difference: minus $1.06 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.62, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie anticipates record 1H earnings (EBITDA) for Transurban Group as the 2Q traffic recovery continues, partly due to a resumption in population growth (immigration), especially in Victoria and Brisbane.

Employment growth also remains strong and the analyst observes car registration are returning to pre-covid levels, while increasing road congestion is increasing the attractiveness of toll roads.

The broker believes impact from the traffic recovery will outweigh the effect of rising interest rates on households (expected to weigh most noticeably in the 4Q of 2023).

The Outperform rating and $14.19 target are unchanged.

Target price is $14.19 Current Price is $13.74 Difference: $0.45
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.89, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UMG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects guidance will be reiterated by United Malt at its AGM on February 10 and is not anticipating any surprises.

The analyst points out input costs in November continued to trend broadly lower.

The broker forecasts FY23 earnings (EBITDA) - post SaaS - of $142m, a rise of 55% compared to the previous corresponding period.

The Outperform rating and $3.99 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.99 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $0.41
If UMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

A 4Q operational update by Viva Energy resulted in beats, compared to Macquarie's forecasts, of 25% and 2% for Geelong refiner margins and fuels volume, respectively.

After the broker adjusts its 2022-24 EPS forecasts for a range of factors and also changes its valuation methodology, the target price remains unchanged at $3.40. Outperform.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.53
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

While the 4Q 2022 sales volume and refiner margin for Viva Energy exceeded Ord Minnett's expectations, no longer-term implications are drawn.

All segments of Viva's business performed strongly, yet a new analyst decides to downgrade the company's rating to Accumulate from Buy, without elaboration.

At the same time the broker's FY23 EPS forecasts is increased by 23% after a recent material increase in Singapore refiner margin futures.

Ord Minnett has switched to whitelabeling research by Morningstar. The target falls to $3.20 from the last entry of $3.30 (by JP Morgan) in the FNArena database in late-October last year.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.33
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources