Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates ADA as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter increases FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts for Adacel Technologies by 17% after including US$59m from a contract won in October with the US Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) for air traffic control simulators.

The target rises to 90c from 80c and the Buy rating is unchanged. Upcoming share price catalysts, according to the analysts, include further contracts and the upcoming AGM in around two weeks.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.02
If ADA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BML as Buy (1) -

Assay results from the first drill hole at Boab Metals' Sorby Hills project have confirmed mineralisation at the Keep Seismic target, finding an intercept of 9.6 metres at 5.1%, but as Shaw and Partners points out it is unlikely the first hole has hit the best intersection. 

With results also confirming high grade mineralisation at the Norton resource, Shaw and Partners anticipates upside to the resource.

With the demand outlook for lead and silver not matched by the supply outlook, the broker expects Sorby Hill product to be highly sought after.

The Buy rating and target price of 52 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.395
If BML meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 316% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BRG as Overweight (1) -

Following Breville Group's AGM, Morgan Stanley is not anticipating material changes to consensus FY24 forecasts. Demand was in line with expectations and remains resilient, and the broker notes gross margin tailwinds are ongoing.

The broker feels management is on track to deliver around 65-70% of full year earnings (EBIT) in the 1H, as is traditional.

The Overweight rating and $29 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $23.13 Difference: $5.87
If BRG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.40, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRG as Buy (1) -

Despite the "challenging backdrop" noted by Breville Group, 1H trading commentary remains consistent with outlook commentary by management in August, notes Ord Minnett.

The broker anticipates gross profit margins will benefit from reduced input costs courtesy of lower manufacturing costs and falling logistics costs as international freight rates normalise.

The company's three key regions should all deliver sales and earnings growth in FY24, according to the analysts. The Buy rating and $27 target are unchanged.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.13 Difference: $3.87
If BRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.40, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DHG as Underperform (5) -

In a first quarter trading update from Domain Holdings Australia the company noted listings declined -3%, slightly softer than the market had expected but which the company attributed to a price uplift. 

The company reaffirmed cost guidance of mid to high single digit growth over FY24, and explained further investment was unlikely to occur until listings volumes recover back to the long run average. 

The Underperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.85 from $2.86.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DHG as Lighten (4) -

Following a trading update by Domain Holdings Australia, Ord Minnett believes FY24 is on track as a recovery year though still considers shares are overvalued. A lighten rating and $2.50 target are maintained.

Listing volumes recovered during the quarter, in line with the broker's expectation, as the backlog of deferred sellers unwinds and distressed property investors unload properties.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie sees upside risk for FleetPartners Group, with the company's peer Element Fleet reporting 12% revenue growth in its Australia & New Zealand segment in the third quarter.

For FleetPartners Group, the broker notes vehicle supply remains a key risk. While orders are high and the pipeline has grown, company revenue is impacted by vehicle supply. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $2.84 are retained.

Target price is $2.84 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.28
If FPR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HLS as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes subdued September-quarter Medicare data, combined with trading updates from Integral Diagnostics ((IDX)) and Australian Clinical Labs ((ACL)), augur poorly for Healius's earnings.

The potential for lower pathology volumes and higher imaging labour costs concern Citi, which spies a risk to consensus forecasts.

The broker's FY24 earnings (EBIT) forecast sit -7% below consensus. EPS forecasts are steady.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $2.15 from $3.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.17
If HLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 51.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates INA as Buy (1) -

Ingenia Communities has sold 6 Gardens communities in WA for $4m - a 14% premium to June 30 book value.

Citi says the sale of the senior rentals accommodation represents an 8% cap rate, compared with the company's book cap rate of 8.9%.

The deal takes the company's asset-sale tally to $63m since June 30, and Citi says the proceeds will be used to fund the company's development pipeline.

The broker views Ingenia Communities favourably, spying strong earnings growth from its pipeline, upside to book value and net tangible assets.

FY24 EPS forecasts are steady, despite the earnings dilution. Buy rating and $4.80 target price retained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $0.72
If INA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.54, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

On second take, Citi observes James Hardie Industries' September-quarter profit met forecasts and was operationally "strong", auguring further upside, regardless of which options management adopts.

Midpoint of the profit guidance range was 27% ahead of expectations with volumes in the year to date tracking ahead of seasonal norms.

On the margin front, the broker spies plenty of upside and says much of this will be at the discretion of management more than markets and macro factors - a good position to be in. EPS forecasts are steady.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $55.30 from $50.50 to reflect strong guidance.

Target price is $55.30 Current Price is $46.97 Difference: $8.33
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.54, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

There was plenty to like in James Hardie Industries' second quarter result says Macquarie, describing an "exceptional" cash performance. According to the broker, results were largely in line with market expectations, but margins were strong and volumes beat guidance. 

With the brand investing in its marketing and brand proposition, alongside making progress with key cost and cash targets, Macquarie expects the company to be in a strong position when markets recover. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $58.40 from $49.90.

Target price is $58.40 Current Price is $46.97 Difference: $11.43
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.54, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

According to Morgan Stanley, 3Q guidance by James Hardie Industries, indicating a stronger volume outlook and likely higher margins, trumped a "solid" in-line 2Q performance. It's felt strong margins will be maintained for some time.

Management's expectation for 3Q volumes in North America suggests to the broker a 6% increase on the previous corresponding period, when a -6.5% decline was expected.

Revenue of US$999m in the 2Q was a beat against forecasts by the broker and consensus of 2% and 7%, respectively. 

Management also announced a new US$250m on market share buyback.

The target rises to $55 from $54 and the Overweight rating is maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $46.97 Difference: $8.03
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.54, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Hold (3) -

Following a "robust" 2Q performance by James Hardie Industries, Ord Minnett is now more confident of near-term outperformance relative to competitors, though still believes FY24 will be a soft year for US housing construction.

The company's strong brand and cost advantages, according to the analyst, are driving market share gains at a tough time for homebuilding due to cost inflation and cost pressures.

Sales in North America, which account for around 75% of group sales, fell by -2% on the previous corresponding period with a 2% price increase overwhelmed by a -5% volume decline, explains the broker.

The target rises by 6% to $45.50 and the Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $45.50 Current Price is $46.97 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $54.54, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -

After yesterday's first glance at 2Q results by James Hardie Industries, UBS increases its target to $58.50 from $54 and maintains a Buy rating. North American volumes are bottoming earlier than anticipated and earnings margins are set to benefit from a structural lift.

A summary of the broker's research on results day is as follows:

UBS, in an initial review, comments James Hardie Industries' Q2 market update released this morning proved broadly in line with expectations, but the positive surprise came with management's guidance for Q3.

The "beat" is significant, assures the broker, pointing towards a magnitude of no less than 27% (against consensus pre-today).

Also, the broker believes the positive growth guided suggests FY24 is the trough in volumes. UBS points out margins at the current turning point are at much higher level than in past precedents.

The freshly announced US$250m share buyback is seen as yet another positive.

Target price is $58.50 Current Price is $46.97 Difference: $11.53
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.54, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JIN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's trackers suggest lottery prize pools are down -7% year-on-year in the first four months of the year, and jackpot volatility is impacting volumes. The broker has adjusted forecasts for Jumbo Interactive to reflect these year-to-date trends, now predicting 4% growth.

The broker does expect Jumbo Interactive can deliver a more than 15% earnings compound growth rate over the three years to FY26, noting volumes volatility smooths out over multiple periods. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $16.45 from $17.45.

Target price is $16.45 Current Price is $13.94 Difference: $2.51
If JIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.71, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Upon first glance, Citi analysts believe National Australia Bank's FY23 cash earnings have narrowly missed market consensus and the broker's own forecast.

The broker also believes there's little joy in the outlook provided which is believed to be linked to funding challenges. The pressure on NIM seems to be worse than for the bank's peers, the broker suggests.

Citi finds the shares are fully valued and today's update is probably not what the market wanted to see. Target $27.50. Neutral.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $29.17 Difference: minus $1.67 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.90, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Sell (5) -

Judging from UBS's early commentary, National Australia Bank's FY23 result has either slightly missed or slightly beaten market consensus on key financial metrics, including cash net profit, cash diluted EPS, interim dividend and CET1.

The broker believes the report shows ongoing pressures from competition, on top of cost inflation, and with the real impact from RBA tightening on bad & doubtful debts yet to materialise.

All in all, UBS uses the label "in line". And with H2 more challenging than H1, the suggestion made is consensus forecasts could well move down a notch post-release. Sell. Target $26.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $29.17 Difference: minus $3.17 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.90, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Upon Citi's initial assessment, Orica's FY23 EBIT slightly "missed", but beat market consensus by 1%. Guidance is for further growth in FY24, but with a second-half skew.

A similar picture dominates regarding the dividend, now accumulating to 43c in total for FY23. Citi had positioned for 46c, while consensus sits at 41c.

Citi believes fundamentals remain strong across commodities, despite multiple challenges, and Orica is demonstrating strength and resilience, showing it is able to adopt to macro-economic challenges.

Buy. Target $17,

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.06 Difference: $1.94
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.77, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Upon initial assessment, UBS believes Orica's FY23 performance has beaten market consensus on tight ammonium nitrate markets, sustained mining demand plus an uplift in technology adoption.

Management seems confident growth will continue into FY24 and beyond.

UBS believes it is a strong performance, including operationally and in cash generative terms. Buy. Target $18.80.

Target price is $18.80 Current Price is $15.06 Difference: $3.74
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.77, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLL as Outperform (1) -

The sale of 29,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate in the third quarter saw Piedmont Lithium deliver maiden revenue and profit. Further, revenue of US$47.1m was a 15% beat to Macquarie's expectations, although earnings did miss on higher costs. 

The company guides to fourth quarter shipments of 27,500 tonnes, and accounting for this Macquarie has lowered its earnings per share forecasts -62% for 2023, but points out percentage changes are large during the ramp up period. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.40 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.96
If PLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 218% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Outperform (1) -

Despite the economic backdrop, Macquarie notes travel demand remains resilient and domestic volumes are stabilising as international travel continues to recover. 

Qantas Airways continues to face higher costs, with the broker understanding the airline is not fully recovering costs through airfares. The company has faced increased scrutiny in recent months, and has lost some trusts with consumers, the broker highlights.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $7.00 from $7.90.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: $1.68
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.23, suggesting upside of 35.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

QBE Insurance continues to trade at an 11.7% premium to international peers, but Macquarie expects this is more reflective of peer weakness than of QBE Insurance's strength. 

The broker is expecting the insurer to feel pressure from US crop and catastrophe claims in the third quarter and expects a downgrade to the combined ration to be forthcoming, noting this could present a buying opportunity. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $16.50 are retained.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.41 Difference: $1.09
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.16, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RDX as Buy (1) -

UBS makes only minor changes to FY24 forecasts for Redox as 1Q trading commentary at the AGM was largely in line with prior utterances and management reaffirmed FY24 prospectus forecasts.

While year-on-year revenue fell in the 1Q due to commodity price deflation, the broker was buoyed by 5% volume growth, while the 21.3% gross margin was a beat versus the analyst's forecast.

The Buy rating and $2.90 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.53
If RDX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Neutral (3) -

REA Group's September-quarter performance in India, through REA India, based on 99Acres' quarterly result, appears to have pleased Citi (as an exercise in competitive read-through assessments).

The broker observes top-line growth is holding while cost growth is on the low side as competition wanes. Citi does spy stronger competition from Magicbricks recently based on web visits.

Neutral rating and $159 target price retained.

Target price is $159.00 Current Price is $159.21 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $157.50, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Neutral (3) -

It is Citi's view Scentre Group has earlier today released a positive trading update, characterised by "continued momentum of leasing spreads".

Guidance for FY23 FFO between 20.75c and 21.25c has been retained. The FY23 distribution should be 16.5c with the broker highlighting this implies at least 4.8% growth for the year.

Citi suggests bargaining power is returning to landlords post the change in market dynamics because of covid. Target $2.95. Neutral.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.38
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SIG as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage on pharmaceutical wholesaler Sigma Healthcare with an Add rating and 83c target.

Management is set to deliver earnings (EBIT) growth of circa 76% per year over the next three years, according to the broker, following  material investments in the data centre network and IT infrastructure.

The broker notes the new contract with Chemist Warehouse for supply of prescription medicines, beginning next July, is worth an additional $1.9bn, and will produce revenue growth of around 16% over the next three years.

Target price is $0.83 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.15
If SIG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.82, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SKT as Accumulate (2) -

SKY Network Television has rejected what Ord Minnett describes as a nebulous takeover offer from a mysterious buyer due to an underwhelming offer price.

The Accumulate rating and $2.80 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.32
If SKT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie's trackers suggest lottery prize pools are down -7% year-on-year in the first four months of the year, and jackpot volatility is impacting volumes. The broker has adjusted forecasts for Lottery Corp to reflect these year-to-date trends, now predicting 4% growth.

With Lottery Corp underperforming the ASX100 by around -11% in the last three months, and having tumbled -15% on an absolute basis, Macquarie now sees the stock as more fairly valued. 

The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price decreases to $4.95 from $5.35.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.59 Difference: $0.36
If TLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.41, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Buy (1) -

Following yesterday's outage by Optus, UBS reached for Google Trends data showing a relative spike in google searches compared to the previous six days.

While the broker notes it's too early to ascertain any potential market share shifts, the largest number of searches were for Telstra, TPG Telecom/Vodafone, and then Aussie broadband ((ABB)).

The analyst suggests a nationwide outage will likely be viewed by customers as more disruptive compared with the prior cyber breach.

The Buy rating and $4.65 target are kept for Telstra Group.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $0.73
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPG as Neutral (3) -

Following yesterday's outage by Optus, UBS reached for Google Trends data showing a relative spike in google searches compared to the previous six days.

While the broker notes it's too early to ascertain any potential market share shifts, the largest number of searches were for Telstra, TPG Telecom/Vodafone and then Aussie broadband ((ABB)).

The analyst suggests a nationwide outage will likely be viewed by customers as more disruptive compared with the prior cyber breach.

The Neutral rating and $5.70 target are kept for TPG Telecom.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.48 Difference: $0.22
If TPG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy's 2023 Investor Briefing Day proved a sharp disappointment to both consensus and Citi forecasts, the company's five-year outlook envisaging a deterioration.

Citi had just upgraded to Neutral this week based on the company's shares attracting yield support but will now turn a more cautious eye to that assessment, given dividend yields will now be more pivotal to share price support, says the broker.

The broker observes Woodside has downgraded its five-year free cash flow forecast by -US$4bn. Citi says this appears to contradict Woodside's statement the company didn't believe anything was materially different from last year.

The broker says the figures suggest volumes have been downgraded by -22mmboe since - reflecting -US$1.7bn based on a US$70 oil price.

EPS forecasts appear steady in FY24 and are shaved for FY25. Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $31.50 from $32.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $33.35 Difference: minus $1.85 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.40, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

There were few surprises from Woodside Energy's Investor Day for Macquarie, with strategy progressing as expected. Macquarie notes from Woodside Energy's guidance, consensus estimates for  2024 were too high and the broker expects downgrades are forthcoming.

The company guided to 25-30% spot gas hub exposure over 2024-2025, and Macquarie expects it may seek to reduce spot exposure from 2026 once it has more clarity over timing at Scarborough, given large global gas additions over 2025-2026.

The Neutral rating and target price of $32.00 are retained.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $33.35 Difference: minus $1.35 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.40, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Citi's initial assessment is Xero's H1 underlying EBITDA missed forecasts by -7% (Citi) and -5% (consensus) respectively, with international revenues to blame.

The gross margin also disappointed by a magnitude of -30bp. In Australia, subscriber growth proved a pleasant surprise.

The broker is not surprised management is adopting a more measured approach towards investing and growth in the USA. Subscriber growth in the UK disappointed, but Citi lauds the focus on higher yielding customers.

The broker suspects market consensus is due a downgrade for FY24, but potentially an upgrade might be looming for FY25 as opex should be lower.

Target $135.50. Buy.

Target price is $135.50 Current Price is $114.72 Difference: $20.78
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.50, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources