Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

Morgans retains a relatively neutral view on the major banks prior to bank reporting season in November.

While 2H earnings are expected to decline and FY24 is looking more difficult, the broker suggest capital positions are sufficiently strong for stable to improving dividends and buybacks.

The analyst notes ANZ Bank differs from major bank peers with leverage to growth in its high return on equity (ROE) payment platforms within the Institutional banking services area.

There is also less exposure to the highly competitive home loan market and greater international exposure, explains the broker.

The target falls by -2% to $25.50 and the Hold rating is unchanged. ANZ Bank reports FY23 results on November 13.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $24.85 Difference: $0.65
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.83, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AUB as Accumulate (2) -

Australia's three largest insurance broker networks are all guiding to continued profit growth over the financial year, and AUB Group is anticipating the greatest growth of 23% at the midpoint as the company benefits from earnings accretion from its Tysers acquisition. 

Ord Minnett considers all three companies to be trading below fair value, and highlights insurance brokers and agencies are continuing to gain from premium increases due to high claim inflation and catastrophic events in recent years. 

The Accumulate rating and target price of $33.00 are retained. 

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $26.57 Difference: $6.43
If AUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.36, suggesting upside of 28.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Deckers Outdoor's Sep Q in the US suggests to Citi two of Accent Group’s new smaller vertical brands, Hoka and UGG (as in boot), appear to have strong momentum behind them, and Hoka appears set to be a reasonable contributor to Accent’s store rollout from
here. 

The broker considers to this to be positive for Accent and suggests along with Nude Lucy there is still scope for medium term rollout to exceed expectations.

But the stock is likely to trade on sales momentum in the short term and this could come under some pressure after last week’s
inflation upside surprise, with Citi economists forecasting two more RBA rate hikes.

Buy and $2.12 target retained.

Target price is $2.12 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.3
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy (1) -

Following early success at Minyari Dome, Antipa Minerals has expanded its exploration program with phase two already underway and expected to comprise 19,200 metres of RC, diamond and air core drilling. 

Shaw and Partners anticipates results from the exploration program will lead to led to a resource upgrade in early 2024. The company also intends to drill test three large-scale greenfield targets at Tetris and Pacman. 

The broker expects growth of the Minyari Dome resource, or other exploration success, could be catalysts for corporate activity. The Buy rating and target price of 6 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.048
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BKW as Buy (1) -

Brickworks and JV partner Goodman Group ((GMG)) have received a concept plan and Development Approval for the Oakdale East Stage 2 Estate in Western Sydney.

This Estate covers more than 50 hectares of land, and the approval enables further development of the Oakdale precinct with an additional 260,000 sqm.

Citi sees this as a positive for FY26 earnings and beyond but waits for further details before reflecting this in its numbers. Buy and $28.75 target retained.

Target price is $28.75 Current Price is $24.86 Difference: $3.89
If BKW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.08, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMT as Buy (1) -

Beamtree Holdings' first quarter update outlined a solid start to the financial year, according to Shaw and Partners, with revenue up 23% year-on-year and tracking ahead of full year guidance. 

The broker pointed out momentum appears to be building in Abbott, with the company securing three new smaller licenses and a second larger revenue share deal in the period, in addition to four existing customers renewing on new pricing terms. 

The company also announced a collaborative agreement with Lean to develop a next generation coding platform for Abbott, in a bid to leverage existing products and target global markets.

The Buy rating and target price of 70 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.495
If BMT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 241% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BUB as Neutral (3) -

Citi has cut FY24-26 profit forecasts for Bubs Australia, primarily due to higher costs, after a review of the Sep Q update. Revenue forecasts are broadly unchanged, although a stronger than expected domestic performance has offset a weaker than expected US performance.

China  remains challenging as expected. Citi remains cautious of the company’s China infant formula prospects given the amount of inventory in the channel, change in distributors and broader concerns around the birth rate.

Target falls to 20c from 21c, Neutral retained.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.035
If BUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CAR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes consensus expectations for FY24 have been de-risked following Carsales' positive AGM/trading update. Management is "very pleased" with the first four months of the financial year across the portfolio of assets.

All qualitative guidance is unchanged.

The broker believes consensus expectations for three-year EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of circa 15% can be achieved, despite a near-term slowing for economies in Australia, the US, South Korea and Brazil.

Overweight rating. Target $26.50. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $27.85 Difference: minus $1.35 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.14, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Morgans retains a relatively neutral view on the major banks prior to bank reporting season in November.

While 2H earnings are expected to decline and FY24 is looking more difficult, the broker suggest capital positions are sufficiently strong for stable to improving dividends and buybacks.

Unlike the other three majors which are reporting FY23 results, CommBank reports 1Q results on November 14.

The target rises by 3% to $97.97 and the Hold rating is unchanged. The analyst points out investors are paying for quality via the the highest earnings and asset-based multiples and the lowest dividend yield of the four majors.

Target price is $97.97 Current Price is $97.80 Difference: $0.17
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $91.25, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COH as Underweight (5) -

A key takeaway from the Cochlear capital markets day for Morgan Stanley was management's intention to sustain 10% revenue growth at 18% profit margins per annum. Strategies will be employed to de-bottleneck clinics.

The company is also investing in direct-to-consumer marketing and is developing consistent referral guidelines to grab a greater slice of the under-penetrated adults/seniors market in the US.

The Underweight rating and $240 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $240.00 Current Price is $242.51 Difference: minus $2.51 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $237.40, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CRN as Buy (1) -

Coronado Global Resources reported Sep Q sales and revenues short of Bell Potter's estimates. Earnings were materially weaker than expected with high levels of waste movement at Curragh expensed. Costs were also higher, and cash lower.

While the broker sees hitting 2023 cost guidance as a risk, it is consistent with waste stripping and costs normalising into 2024. Coronado expects more consistent performance at Curragh going forward, with underground mining commencing from 2025.

Bell Potter retains Buy on a positive met coal price outlook, near-term production growth and strong free cash flow yield, and still sees the potential for Coronado to participate in industry consolidation.

Target unchanged at $2.00.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.235
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CRN as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett described a mixed third quarter from Coronado Global Resources, with higher sales of 4.1m tonnes offsetting lower saleable production of 3.7m tonnes, while cash was lower than the broker had expected given the timing of insurance and royalties payments. 

Following the result, Ord Minnett has lifted its cost assumptions 6% for the remainder of 2023 and 18% for 2024. The impact is largely offset by increases to production forecast and pricing assumptions.  

The Accumulate rating and target price of $1.90 are retained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.135
If CRN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Buy (1) -

September quarter operational results for Coronado Global Resources were in line with recently downgraded guidance, notes UBS. This guidance was also re-affirmed.

While realised prices and cash generated were soft, in the broker's view, realised prices in the next two quarters are likely to lift.

The broker highlights US operations were impacted by already flagged geological conditions at Buchanan.

The Buy rating and $2.10 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.335
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CSS as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Clean Seas Seafood’s AGM highlighted a more sombre trading update than Bell Potter would have expected, with sales volumes broadly flat year on year and frozen inventories building.

The broker has reviewed forecasts in light of softer Sep Q sales volumes trends and easing selling prices from historically high levels. With growing harvest volumes and biomass, Bell Potter continues to project year on year volume growth albeit at a lower average price point.

While not discounting the turnaround to date, a further re-rating in the share price would likely require a resumption profitable sales volume growth, the broker suggests. Downgrade to Hold from Buy, target falls to 47c from 60c.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.05
If CSS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CXO as Neutral (3) -

Core Lithium's Sep Q production beat Citi's expectations and realised pricing was positive. The company notes head grades are reconciling well and there's a stockpile of 164kt built ahead of the wet. FY24 guidance unchanged.

Neutral and 38c target retained.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.025
If CXO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Underweight (5) -

After reviewing today's 1Q results for Endeavour Group, Morgan Stanley initially observes group sales growth of 2.1% is only slightly lagging the consensus run-rate projection of 3.1% for the 1H.

Growth in food and accommodation partly offset a low single-digit decline in gaming for the Hotels division, explains the analyst. 

While price inflation has moderated, higher demand for mainstream beer, rose and pre-mixed drinks indicates to the broker customers are searching for value.

For the Retail division, Morgan Stanley explains an increase in shopping frequency and the average selling price (ASP) metric more than offset a reduction in items per basket.

Underweight. Target $5.60. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.58
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.91, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

In a first look at Endeavour Group's 1Q sales, UBS notes a miss for the Hotels segment against the broker's forecast and consensus, while the Retail division missed the broker but exceeded the consensus estimate.

Total sales rose by 2.1% to $3.09bn compared to the UBS and consensus forecasts for $3.11bn and $3.08bn, respectively.

Management noted Retail trading improved over the last two weeks of September, and this advancement has continued into the 2Q so far, while sales momentum for Hotels has remained steady.

In Retail for the 1Q, the company noted around 5% inflation (excise and increased pre-mix prices), which indicates to the analysts a real like-for-like sales decline. Management observed fewer items per basket despite increased shopping frequency.

The broker's Neutral rating and $5.75 target are unchanged.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.73
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.91, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FBU as Equal-weight (3) -

While a softer 1Q performance by Fletcher Building in New Zealand disappointed Morgan Stanley, a stronger performance in Australia appeared to provide an offset.

Management commentary around green shoots for New Zealand may prove premature, suggests the broker. Residential volumes are now -25% below the 2021 peak, after suffering a further -5% fall in the 1Q, in addition to the -8% guided for, compared to FY23.

The company expects FY24 underlying trading cash flow will be "robust" and anticipates the 1H will  be a material improvement on the previous corresponding period.

Morgan Stanley's Equal-weight rating and $5.23 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.23 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $1.2
If FBU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 37.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FBU as Accumulate (2) -

Despite slowing residential housing demand impacting on Fletcher Building's materials and distribution business, the residential construction business remains strong year-to-date, says Ord Minnett, who expects performance reflects its position as a lower-cost provider. 

Fletcher Building expects volumes from its materials and distribution businesses over FY24 to be -5% lower than prior guidance, but Ord Minnett has lifted its volume estimates for residential development, expecting this to offset lower materials and distribution business.

The Accumulate rating and target price of $5.50 are retained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $1.47
If FBU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 37.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Fortescue Metals' iron ore shipments were lower than Bell Potter had forecast for the Sep Q, with costs in line. Production was a clear miss, coming in below the bottom of FY24 guidance on an annualised basis and the lowest quarterly shipments for two years.

Iron Bridge made its first shipment of magnetite concentrate, but FY24 guidance has been lowered from and initial price realisations were at the low end of expectations.

The broker upgrades earnings forecasts as the iron ore price finds support from Chinese stimulus but fundamental demand indicators remain tepid. Earnings, and more so the dividend outlook, are clouded by the uncertainty of capital allocation in 2024.

Target rises to $16.21 from $15.53, Sell retained.

Target price is $16.21 Current Price is $22.25 Difference: minus $6.04 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.78, suggesting downside of -20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Lighten (4) -

Fortescue Metals reports shipping 46m tonnes of iron ore in the first quarter of the financial year, representing a -3% year-on-year decline and -6% quarter-on-quarter decline, but average realised prices of US$100 per metric tonne was 14% year-on-year. 

Ord Minnett continues to expect Fortescue will deliver sales of 192m tonnes over the full year, a similar result to the previous year, and that sales will rise to around 210m tonnes from 2026 or 2027 as Iron Bridge production ramps up. 

The Lighten rating and target price of $16.00 are retained.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $22.25 Difference: minus $6.25 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.78, suggesting downside of -20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GEM as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers its target for G8 Education to $1.05 from $1.16 following "mixed" 3Q results, where solid cost management helped offset the negative impact of softer occupancy figures.

The broker highlights potential upside from the divestment of underperforming assets, freeing up around $9m of pre-AASB earnings (EBIT) losses, combined with likely overhead cost savings of around $1-3m. 

The Neutral rating is retained due to various negatives including ongoing labour challenges.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.06
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans assesses a "solid" 1Q of production at Genex Power, with the Kidston Solar and Jemalong solar farms producing a combined 53.1GWh, a 10% rise on the previous corresponding period. Year-on-year revenue fell on softer spot market conditions.

The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged and the target rises to 28.5c from 27.5c.

The inclusion of the 275MW Genex Power share of Bulli Creek in the broker's forecast is offset by a higher assumed discount rate and reduced forecast output from the Bouldercombe Battery Project. The latter experienced delays to completion of commissioning after a fire in September.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.125
If GNX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GOR as Buy (1) -

September quarter production and costs for Gold Road Resources were in line with forecasts by UBS, while 2023 guidance for both measures are thought to be on track.

The broker likes the good cash generation at Gruyere combined with the diversification provided by the the company's 19.9% stake in De Grey Mining's ((DEG)) Mallina gold asset.

Assuming a long-term real gold price of US$1,600/oz and a $0.7500 Australian dollar, UBS arrives at a $2.20 target, up from $2.15 after adjusting for the quarterly result.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.26
If GOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HVN as Buy (1) -

Harvey Norman’s Sep Q trading update showed operating conditions in Australia remain tough but Citi still sees things bottoming out this year. Comparables for Australia will get significantly easier from November.

Rising house prices and stage three tax cuts should support a recovery into FY25. Citi is encouraged by the buyback announced given the depressed share price.

The broker is cautious on the near-term outlook given Citi’s economists forecast another two rate hikes in November and December. This would no doubt further impact momentum into the Black Friday and Boxing Day sales.

However, Citi does expect a hot summer to support sales in seasonal categories. Buy and $4.60 target retained.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.88
If HVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HVN as Underweight (5) -

In Australia for the 1Q, Harvey Norman's like-for-like sales fell by -13.9%, which Morgan Stanley notes is tracking below the 1H consensus expectation for -9.7%.

A -30% fall in profit for the 1H is also anticipated by consensus - exAASB16 and property revaluations - and -49.1% was the 1Q outcome, implying to the broker 15% profit growth is needed in the 2Q to meet expectation.

An on-market buyback was announced of up 10% of shares, beginning on November 13 for the next 12 months.

Underweight. Target is unchanged at $3.50. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HVN as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Harvey Norman has reported a -49% profit before tax decline in its first quarter, a result UBS feels reflects the company's exposure to a slowing customer who is increasingly cutting back on big ticket items. 

The broker also feels Harvey Norman is losing ground to competitors Nick Scali ((NCK)) and JB Hi Fi ((JBH)) given the company's weakening performance in August and September. 

UBS was surprised by the announcement of an on-market share buyback, despite capital management having been discussed by Harvey Norman previously. 

The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target price of $3.75 is retained.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.03
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Buy (1) -

Following an update from Insignia Financial on its first three months of the financial year that included detail on the company's outflows of -$1.4bn, already exceeding Ord Minnett's full year outflow expectations, the broker has lifted its outflow forecast for the year. 

The broker does feel it is more important to highlight that Insignia Financial remains Australia's largest wealth platform, retaining a 20% market share, and remains confident that the company will be able to return to positive inflows by FY25. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.40 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $1.34
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi analysts explain they are balancing their own forecast of higher lithium pricing in Q1 from likely restocking against the prediction things could get worse first for IGO in the current December quarter.

Within this framework they've decided to downgrade to Neutral from Buy. They also have assigned a High Risk rating.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.65 Difference: $2.35
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.18, suggesting upside of 46.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JHG as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter has marked to market to reflect negative bond and equity markets movements over the Sep quarter. The broker expects Janus Henderson's assets under management to have fallen -4.9% in the quarter (result Wednesday).

However the operational turnaround is starting to bear fruit. Janus has taken action to defend its US intermediary business, has improved flows elsewhere, lowered costs to enable investment elsewhere and investment performance has remained strong.

Given recent share price weakness, Bell Potter upgrades to Buy from Hold. Target falls to $42.40 from $45.00.

Target price is $42.40 Current Price is $36.36 Difference: $6.04
If JHG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.74, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JLG as Buy (1) -

US-based FirstServices' (FSV) robust revenue growth in Sep Q particularly in restoration provides a positive read-across for Johns Lyng’s US operations, Citi suggests.

While the broker acknowledges Johns Lyng’s target market is more niche, it is slightly more cautious around prolonged acceleration of US organic growth for based on FSV’s near-term outlook commentary particularly with respect to building as usual.

The key to successful US expansion remains subject to Johns Lyng securing acquisitions beyond its current geographical footprint. Therefore, FSV’s intention to slow its acquisition spree in restoration in the near-to-medium term could be incrementally positive in Citi's view.

Buy and $7.00 target retained.
 

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.75 Difference: $1.25
If JLG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.18, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

In the four years since commencement of the Victoria Cross office project, Morgan Stanley notes Lendlease Group is yet to attract major anchor tenants or additional capital partners.

Due to this lack of progress, the broker's estimate for the company's FY25 Development earnings may need to be reassessed, given all metrics across the North Sydney office market have softened since 2019.

For now, the analysts stick with a Development earnings (EBITDA) forecast of $659m for FY25. In the worst case scenario of profit write-backs, FY25 downside risk of around -10-20% is in prospect, suggests Morgan Stanley.

The Equal-weight rating and $7.95 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: $1.65
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.94, suggesting upside of 62.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Malaysia's overturning of its Cracking and Leaching ban until March 2026 provides several benefits for Lynas Rare Earths, Bell Potter suggests. The Kalgoorlie ramp-up can now occur in a staged manner, with second half guidance under less pressure than anticipated.

Bottlenecks to a 12ktpa NdPr production rate goal will be addressed with the Mt Weld expansion. A fully ramped Kalgoorlie, along with the LAMP, implies some 15-16ktpa of capacity, the broker notes.

Lynas is a key supplier of separated rare earths to Western economies. Bell Potter's valuation doesn’t consider expansions beyond 12ktpa as timing and costs pertaining to this are yet unknown, however the upside scenario could be a meaningful contributor to value.

Buy retained, target rises to $8.80 from $8.20.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $1.68
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.33, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Overweight (1) -

Even if residential pre-sales sales remain at the current low levels of a round 260 per quarter, Morgan Stanley believes Mirvac Group can achieve its FY24 settlement expectations of 2,500-3,000 lots.

The Overweight rating and $2.55 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

A summary of the broker's recent assessment of 1Q results is as follows:

While 1Q residential pre-sales of 261 lots for Mirvac Group were below Morgan Stanley's forecast, the broker remains positive given tight residential supply/demand.

Management noted a pick-up for activity in October, and pointed out new apartment launches fell at end of the quarter, suggesting Q2 may see an improvement.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.675
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 40.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Mineral Resources reported a weaker quarterly result, with sales lagging production and weaker lithium product prices. Production was in line with Bell Potter's forecasts but sales were less forecast due to temporary haulage and shipping delays.

The broker expects the missed shipments to occur in the Dec Q, but lithium pricing weakened quarter on quarter and has continued to weaken into the Dec Q.

Mineral Resources is already undergoing significant production growth, and Bell Potter expects further growth newsflow late in 2023 or early 2024 relating to a number of projects.

Buy and $90 target retained.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $60.39 Difference: $29.61
If MIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.14, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Equal-weight (3) -

Following a further review of 1Q results for Mineral Resources, Morgan Stanley lowers its target to $64 from $74. Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

The analysts remain cautious on the company's balance sheet heading into FY24 with gearing of around 49% forecast, along with ongoing commodity price volatility and inflationary pressures.

A summary of the broker's research on the day following those results is as follows:

Compared to consensus forecasts for the 1Q, prices and sales at the Mt Marion operations for Mineral Resources were misses of -12% and -9%, respectively. Production was in line with Morgan Stanley's forecast and -5% adrift of consensus.

More positively, iron ore production exceeded forecasts by the analysts and consensus by 7% and 8%, respectively, while Mining Services revenue came in slightly weaker than the broker anticipated.

Morgan Stanley sees risks in the lithium space in the current environment, and notes overall company gearing is elevated.

Target price is $64.00 Current Price is $60.39 Difference: $3.61
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.14, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Hold (3) -

Following its first quarter Mineral Resources has made no changes to its full year forecasts of 16.5-18.8m tonnes of iron ore production and 360-440 kilotonnes of lithium equivalent spodumene.

Despite this, Ord Minnett does lower its eanrings per share forecast for the year by -20% on reduced lithium price expectations. The broker does remain optimistic of a lithium price rebound as demand outpaces supply and causes a likely deficit in 2024. 

The Hold rating and target price of $67.00 are retained.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $60.39 Difference: $6.61
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.14, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

UBS feels the negative share price reaction to Megaport's 1Q results was overdone, though acknowledges recovery of business momentum is taking time as numbers for the sales team build, and lowers its target to $13.30 from $14.25.

Revenue and annual recurring revenue (ARR) tracked marginally ahead of the analyst's forecasts, and there were "solid" earnings (EBITDA).

The broker now incorporates marginally softer ports/Megaport Virtual Edge additions over FY24 and the 1H of FY25, which is largely offset by stronger revenue and customers, along with currency benefits. Buy.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $9.52 Difference: $3.78
If MP1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.85, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MPL as Buy (1) -

Having recently met with Medibank Private, UBS has reviewed its mid-term earnings forecasts given a number of efficiencies that should enable the company to maintain low claims inflation and sustain margins above pre-covid levels. 

The broker expects Medibank Private will be able to maintain an 8-9% net margin range over the next three years, and the company is targeting a 15% compound annual growth earnings rate over the same period. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.30 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.39 Difference: $0.91
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Underweight (5) -

For National Australia Bank's FY23 results on November 9, Morgan Stanley increases its FY23 cash EPS estimate by around 1.5%,
primarily due to lower loan losses, though sees downside risk to consensus earnings estimates.

The broker forecasts a 2H pre-provision profit of $5,591m and cash profit ex notable items of $3,641m.

The Underweight rating and $26.60 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $26.60 Current Price is $28.40 Difference: minus $1.8 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.90, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

Morgans retains a relatively neutral view on the major banks prior to bank reporting season in November.

While 2H earnings are expected to decline and FY24 is looking more difficult, the broker suggest capital positions are sufficiently strong for stable to improving dividends and buybacks.

National Australia Bank has an attractive dividend yield and capacity for buybacks, yet Morgans is cautious over slowing loan/deposit growth, cost growth, competitive intensity and a weak economy impacting business banking.

The broker's target increases by 3% to $28.82 and the Hold rating is unchanged. FY23 results are due on November 9.

Target price is $28.82 Current Price is $28.40 Difference: $0.42
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.90, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Underweight (5) -

Sales volumes and production in the 1Q for Pilbara Minerals missed Morgan Stanley's forecasts by -10% and -11%, respectively, partly due to the impact upon shipments of maintenance activities.

Realised pricing also missed forecasts by the broker and consensus by around -25% and -18%, respectively.

Management decided not to proceed with a one-off capital management initiative due to a softening in market conditions and a period of  significant upcoming capex.

Underweight rating. The target falls to $3.40 from $3.45. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PLY as Buy (1) -

Playside Studios has released details on its first quarter performance, reporting record original IP revenue of $6.6m, largely thanks to contributions from the Dumb Ways to Die franchise. According to Shaw and Partners, the quarter reinforces the value in the franchise. 

With the Dumb Ways to Die franchise still having headroom as it continues to mature, and the company's Project Phoenix moving into pre-production in the quarter, Shaw and Partners feels investors should take comfort in Playside Studios' increasing capabilities. 

The Buy rating and target price of 80 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.37
If PLY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PNI as Neutral (3) -

Negative mark to market impacts saw Pinnacle Investment Management's funds under management decline -2% during the first quarter to $90.4bn, with inflows of $0.2bn notably softer than UBS's expected $0.9bn. 

Despite this, the broker points out the result quality was better given positive inflows for the retail segment, alongside momentum in the company's international channels, while outflows stemmed from the lower-margin institutional segment.

The Neutral rating and target price of $8.50 are retained. 

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: $0.86
If PNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.03, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PWH as Buy (1) -

Citi is positive on PWR Holdings' announcement of its new Australian facility which increases its production floor space by 114%, a strong signal of the growth the company expects from its Aerospace & Defence (A&D) and Auto OEM pipeline.

While there was no trading update or announcement on contracts, the broker takes management’s comments on A&D being a strong contributor to growth in FY24 that the segment performed well in the Sep Q and still believes there could be an update on some of the larger contracts in the near-term.

Buy and $11.75 target retained.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $10.04 Difference: $1.71
If PWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.16, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMD as Buy (1) -

Following ResMed's result, Citi upgrades earnings forecasts on lower opex offsetting lower gross margins. Minimal changes are made to near-term revenue forecasts.

The broker cuts medium and long-term sleep revenue by -15% on the anticipated impact of GLP-1s (eg Ozempic) on sleep apnea prevalence.

Citi views the shares as oversold and maintains Buy, acknowledging that the PE multiple could remain under pressure near-term
pending the SELECT and SURMOUNT-OSA trials data next month and in mid-2024.

Target falls to $29 from $39.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $21.56 Difference: $7.44
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.01, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Following ResMed's 1Q results, Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating to Overweight from Equal-weight in the belief the market has overcompensated for the negative impact of weight loss drugs on the obstructed sleep apnea (OSA) market.

Revenue was in line with consensus for the 1Q, with weakness in US devices offset by masks/other. No FY24 guidance or outlook commentary was provided.

After conducting a deep dive analysis, the broker feels the OSA market is not only under-penetrated but also the the "obesity funnel" is expanding. While a price earnings valuation discount is warranted, the around -39% contraction so far is considered too great.

The target falls to $26 from $27.70. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $21.56 Difference: $4.44
If RMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.01, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RMD as Add (1) -

ResMed's 1Q results were broadly in line with Morgans expectations. Mask growth was considered a highlight though device growth was somewhat tempered on tough comparisons to prior periods.

Mask growth was supported by resupply and new patient setups at all-time highs, explain the analysts. A 20bps quarter-on-quarter improvement for gross product margin (GPM) was an additional positive, in Morgans view.

On the topic de jour, management noted that while weight-loss drugs could reduce the total addressable market by around -15% in the worst case scenario, the market remains both large and under-penetrated at less than 10%.

The target falls to $32.74 from $36.95 and the Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $32.74 Current Price is $21.56 Difference: $11.18
If RMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.01, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMD as Buy (1) -

ResMed reported quarter-on-quarter underlying earnings growth of 4% in its first quarter, despite a -2% sales decline. Ord Minnett highlights the company's earnings margin expanded around 150 basis points to 29%. 

The broker finds ResMed's shares materially undervalued, and anticipated further margin expansion as the company's sales mix shifts to higher-margin masks and it alleviates some the cost efficiences related to its AirSense 10 device. 

The broker predicts a 9% compound annual growth rate over the coming five years. The Buy rating and target price of $40.00 are retained.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $21.56 Difference: $18.44
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.01, suggesting upside of 46.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

First quarter production and costs for Regis Resources were in line with forecasts by UBS and consensus and management's FY24 guidance is unchanged.

The broker notes the McPhillamys bankable feasibility study is due next March, with the final investment decision due in June. The two other growth/life extensions programs are thought to be progressing well at Garden Well (Duketon) and Havana (Tropicana).

The $1.65 target and Neutral rating are unchanged.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RWC as Hold (3) -

Tougher trading conditions in the EMEA region resulted in a slightly weaker 1Q for  Reliance Worldwide than Morgans had been expecting. It's felt near-term operating conditions will remain soft across all regions with further downside risk from higher interest rates.

Management slightly reduced FY24 sales guidance sales growth to low-to-mid single digits from low single digits previously.

While 1Q trading conditions in the Americas and the APAC region were in line with expectations, the company has seen a further deterioration in both the UK and Continental Europe.

Morgans lowers its target to $3.56 from $3.75. Hold.

Target price is $3.56 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.1
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.02, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDF as Equal-weight (3) -

Following a "strong" 1Q, Morgan Stanley believes Steadfast Group has the potential to better FY24 guidance.

Earnings (EBITDA) are tracking well ahead of guidance, though the analysts note the impact of higher interest rates and borrowings means underlying profits are only modestly ahead.

The broker attributes strong operating conditions, underpinned by rising premium rates, for the strong earnings performance.

Management pointed to cross-sell opportunities in the US following the ISU acquisition.

The Equal-Weight rating and target price of $6.30 are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $0.95
If SDF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SDF as Hold (3) -

Australia's three largest insurance broker networks are all guiding to continued profit growth over the financial year, and Steadfast Group is anticipating growth of 14% at the midpoint as it continues to acquire growth from increased ownership of brokers within its network.

Ord Minnett considers all three companies to be trading below fair value, and highlights insurance brokers and agencies are continuing to gain from premium increases due to high claim inflation and catastrophic events in recent years. 

The Hold rating and target price of $6.00 are retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $0.65
If SDF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

While 1Q constant currency revenue growth for SiteMinder slowed to 22%, this outcome was in line with Citi's forecast. Expectations were down because of strong transaction growth comparatives in the previous corresponding period.

The analyst sees minor upside risk to consensus estimates of $91m revenue, as it only implies $44 million for the 2H.

The broker believes the FY24 launch of new products will be key to the attainment of management's target for 30% revenue growth for the financial year.

The Buy rating and $5.50 target are unchanged.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $1.56
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 34.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDR as Equal-weight (3) -

While SiteMinder was cycling the re-opening bump for travel in the previous corresponding period, reminds Morgan Stanley, a 30.8% (22% in constant currency) rise in 1Q revenue still outpaced the 26% consensus forecast. 

The company alluded to a meaningful lift in net subscription additions, without disclosing numbers. A very small Middle East exposure was highlighted, in light of the Israel/Palestine conflict.

Management is expecting a constant currency revenue acceleration over FY24 on more normal comparables.

The $4.50 target and Equal-weight rating are retained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.56
If SDR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 34.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SDR as Add (1) -

SiteMinder's revenue in the 1Q was helped materially by a weaker Australian dollar and revenue growth is running at a better rate for the 1H than both Morgans and consensus expected.

Management assured FY24 guidance is on track and underlying free cash flow (FCF) will be positive in the 2H.

The target falls to $4.60 from $4.80 after only minor forecast changes as the broker increases its weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumption to 11.5% from 11%. Add.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.66
If SDR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 34.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Given tough comparatives against the time of the covid re-opening for travel, UBS assesses a "solid" 1Q for SiteMinder, with organic, constant currency, annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of 22%.

The broker feels momentum gained in the 2H of FY23 for subscriptions added, appears to be sustained as net additions "accelerated meaningfully versus 1Q23". Management further noted 1H FY24 net subscriptions are ahead of the 2H of FY23.

The analyst expects a longer-term growth boost from the revenue management product (DR+) and the Channel + launch in mid-2024.

The target falls to $6.70 from $6.95. Buy.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $2.76
If SDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 34.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley adjusts its forecasts for Sandfire Resources following 1Q results. The Equal-weight rating is retained and the target rises to $6.10 from $6.05. Industry view: Attractive.

A summary of last week's research by the broker on the result is as follows:

The September quarter result for Sandfire Resources was broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations, though production beat the consensus forecast by 10%.

Costs were in line with the broker's forecast and FY24 guidance was unchanged.

On a discounted cash flow valuation basis, Morgan Stanley believes shares of Sandfire are expensive with a longer mine life key to raising the broker's valuation.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.93, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SRX as Add (1) -

Ongoing weakness for  rutile prices and global pigment markets resulted in a negative surprise for both Morgans and consensus when Sierra Rutile released Q3 production output, along with guidance for FY23.

Rutile production guidance for FY23 was reduced to 115kt-120kt from 124kt-126kt, with an increase in full-year net unit cost guidance to $1,075-1,125/t from $990-1,055/t on the lower production volumes.

The broker can see a bottom for the market in the short-term even as rutile prices (pigment market) continue to face headwinds.

The Add rating and 51c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.51 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.335
If SRX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 191% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Add (1) -

Morgans retains a relatively neutral view on the major banks prior to bank reporting season in November.

While 2H earnings are expected to decline and FY24 is looking more difficult, the broker suggest capital positions are sufficiently strong for stable to improving dividends and buybacks.

The analyst retains an Add rating for Westpac and decreases its target to $21.61 from $22.58. Should the bank materially improve its business performance (not without material risk of disappointment), a rising share price and increasing cash dividends are anticipated 

Westpac releases its FY23 results on November 6.

Target price is $21.61 Current Price is $20.67 Difference: $0.94
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.34, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources