Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates 29M as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie resumes coverage of 29Metals after a period of restriction with an Outperform rating and 80c target price.

Following the company's $151m capital raising, the broker says 29Metals is well capitalised to continue the recovery of Capricorn, and spot prices suggest strong upside.

The balance sheet has also been derisked.

EPS forecasts rise 46% in 2023 and 2024 to -19.9c and -9.6c, ease a touch in 2025 to -0.2c, and fall -42% in 2026 due to forecast dilution.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.185
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.79, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AIS as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter feels Aeris Resources has delivered a solid production start to the new financial year. By asset, while Tritton missed the broker's forecast by -6%, Cracow delivered a 2% beat, Mt Colin a 5% beat, and Jaguar more than doubled the broker's expected zinc production. 

The broker considers this result to be Aeris Resources' strongest start to a financial year in some time, but does expect the market will wait to see improved operating costs and another quarter of solid delivery on guidance. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 30 cents from 29 cents.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.115
If AIS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 41.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AKE as Buy (1) -

Citi forecasts lithium prices will track sideways for the next 12-18 months, but remains bullish on the long-term outlook. As a result, long-term pricing assumptions rise. The latest forecasts are: hydroxide US$23k/t, carbonate US$20k/t and hydroxide US$1600/t (real).

Earnings estimates and target prices are lowered for the pure-play miners. The Allkem target falls to $13.50 from $16.50 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Citi considers Pilbara Minerals the preferred exposure and the cleanest leverage to pricing while Allkem is preferred for its growth outlook.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $10.75 Difference: $2.75
If AKE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.10, suggesting upside of 44.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Citi upgrades its earnings forecasts for Aristocrat Leisure by around 1% due to outperformance by the Social Casino portfolio, which also exceeded industry growth rates in the September quarter.

The broker remains Buy-rated given a consistent performance by Social Casino, the market-leading land-based business and upside for real money gaming (RMG), supported by the NeoGames acquisition. 

The $42.80 target is  unchanged.

Target price is $42.80 Current Price is $39.90 Difference: $2.9
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.66, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ASX as Hold (3) -

In the wake of ASX's September trading activity report, Morgans assesses a mixed trading performance overall.

On one hand, there was lower cash markets activity and flat futures volumes versus the previous corresponding period, but the month was an improvement for capital market activity.

After allowing for these nuances, the broker lowers its target to $60.70 from $63.80. Hold.

Target price is $60.70 Current Price is $56.84 Difference: $3.86
If ASX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $61.62, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AZS as Buy (1) -

Azure Minerals has recieved some positive results from metallurgical testing, indicating that lihtium recovers well using industry standard flotation processing. 

The company reported a concentrate grade of 5.59% lithium oxide from the testing, encouraging Bell Potter to update its Notional Development Scenario assuming a 5.5% lithium oxide concentrate rather than the previous 6.0%. The broker maintains its assumption of 70% recovery, and the update has immaterial impact on valuation. 

The Buy rating and target price of $4.90 are retained.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $2.85
If AZS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 139% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Add (1) -

Morgans believes some steel mills in China may be overproducing in anticipation of possible mandatory steel production cuts in late-2023. So, while iron ore fundamentals remain healthy the analysts feel there may be some short-term risk.

Evidence of this overproduction comes from high steel volumes despite low margins, explains the broker.

Despite this short-term view, Morgans maintains its bullish stance and expects iron ore's relative strength compared to several key commodities will continue in 2024. It's thought the market needs to support high-cost US$90-100/t supply to maintain balance.

Both BHP Group and Rio Tinto stand out as safe havens, suggest the analysts, and offer potential value in both capital and dividend terms. The Add is maintained for BHP Group and the target falls to $50 from $51.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $44.03 Difference: $5.97
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.57, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BWP as Underweight (5) -

BWP Trust has sold its Wollongong assets for $40m - a strong gain says Morgan Stanley. The broker observes the asset was on a five-year lease to the Electoral Commission, earning $2.16m. But the company had determined the highest and best use of the site was for residential.

While the broker says the sale is not that material given the company's $3bn portfolio, it suggests that some sites could also receive higher valuations under alternative uses.

But given long-term options on many of its sites, the broker believes the trust should still be valued on rentals.

Underweight rating retained. Target price is $3.75. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $0.34
If BWP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CMW as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett has adjusted its expectations for Cromwell Property's equity raise, now expecting the company will raise $510m at 30 cents a share. The broker had previously assumed the company would demand 50 cents per share, but has downgraded given a rise in bond yields and a share price decline. 

While the company could wait out market concerns, Ord Minnett feels the equity raising is necessary. While the underlying business is in better shape than the balance sheet, according to the broker, it is not as strong as other REITs in coverage. 

The rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy and the target price decreases to 70 cents from 85 cents. 

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.345
If CMW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Buy (1) -

Following a short period of research restriction, Citi resumes coverage of Computershare with a Buy rating and $29 target, up from $27.20.

While there's strategic sense in recently selling the US Mortgage Servicing business, the broker had expected it to recover over time, and sees the sale as EPS dilutive over time, but not in the short term. Management predicts the transaction will be 2cps accretive in FY24.

The company is still looking for a buyer for its UK Mortgage Services business, which the analysts suggest will be the end of business sales, despite speculation around Communication Services.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $25.56 Difference: $3.44
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.79, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CXO as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi forecasts lithium prices will track sideways for the next 12-18 months, but remains bullish on the long-term outlook. As a result, long-term pricing assumptions rise. The latest forecasts are: hydroxide US$23k/t, carbonate US$20k/t and hydroxide US$1600/t (real).

Earnings estimates and target prices are lowered for the pure-play miners. The Core Lithium target falls to 38c from 40c though its rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell after a share price fall.

Citi considers Pilbara Minerals the preferred exposure and the cleanest leverage to pricing while Allkem is preferred for its growth outlook.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.04
If CXO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting upside of 29.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -

Morgans believes some steel mills in China may be overproducing in anticipation of possible mandatory steel production cuts in late-2023. So, while iron ore fundamentals remain healthy the analysts feel there may be some short-term risk.

Evidence of this overproduction comes from high steel volumes despite low margins, explains the broker.

Despite this short-term view, Morgans maintains its bullish stance and expects iron ore's relative strength compared to several key commodities will continue in 2024. It's thought the market needs to support high-cost US$90-100/t supply to maintain balance.

Add-rated Rio Tinto and BHP Group stand out as safe havens, suggest the analysts, and offer potential value in both capital and dividend terms. 

For all iron ore stocks under its coverage, Fortescue Metals has the most sensitivity iron ore and Morgans upgrades its rating to Hold from Reduce and the target rises to $19.40 from $16.20.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $20.67 Difference: minus $1.27 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.33, suggesting downside of -16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Buy (1) -

Increased market volatility in September has seen the asset managers in UBS's coverage report report month-on-month funds under managment declines. Flow trends remain challenging across the industry. 

For UBS, GQG Partners remains a standout. The company reported a -1.5% month-on-month decline in funds under management, but net inflows were $0.8bn ahead of the broker's expectations. UBS feels this was a strong result given the challenging backdrop. 

The Buy rating and target price of $2.30 are retained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.91
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 50.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi forecasts lithium prices will track sideways for the next 12-18 months, but remains bullish on the long-term outlook. As a result, long-term pricing assumptions rise. The latest forecasts are: hydroxide US$23k/t, carbonate US$20k/t and hydroxide US$1600/t (real).

Earnings estimates and target prices are lowered for the pure-play miners. The IGO target falls to $13 from $15.50 though its rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral after a share price fall.

Citi considers Pilbara Minerals the preferred exposure and the cleanest leverage to pricing while Allkem is preferred for its growth outlook.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.04 Difference: $1.96
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.18, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHG as Neutral (3) -

Citi doesn't expect much in the way of good news when Janus Henderson reports for its 3Q on November 1, and is anticipating overall negative market/currency impacts.

The analysts expect management guidance for outflows of between -US$3.5bn and US$5.0bn will occur, while there will be a lack of offsets against another quarter of -US$16m-US$17m in fulcrum fees.

The broker lowers its FY23-25 EPS forecasts and the target is now $39.85, down from $41.75. The Neutral rating is retained.

Target price is $39.85 Current Price is $38.19 Difference: $1.66
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.89, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Citi forecasts lithium prices will track sideways for the next 12-18 months, but remains bullish on the long-term outlook. As a result, long-term pricing assumptions rise. The latest forecasts are: hydroxide US$23k/t, carbonate US$20k/t and hydroxide US$1600/t (real).

Earnings estimates and target prices are lowered for the pure-play miners, though the $3.00 target for Liontown Resources is unchanged based on the Albemarle bid price. Neutral.

Citi considers Pilbara Minerals the preferred exposure and the cleanest leverage to pricing while Allkem is preferred for its growth outlook.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.01
If LTR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MEI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's site visit to Meteoric Resources appears to have pleased the broker.

The broker observes thick ionic clay zones, higher grades at depth and many greenfield options, and observes several scoping studies, tests and resource upgrades should prove near-term catalysts.

While processing is critical to success, Macquarie believes this could be de-risked by establishing a pilot pant in Brazil.

EPS forecasts rise 17% in FY26 and 15% in FY28, and fall -48% in FY27 given expected ramp up.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to 46c from 45c.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.25
If MEI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 119% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Magellan Financial suffered continued institutional outflows from its Global Equities fund in Spetember, and Macquarie estimates $3bn of institutional funds under management remain in the fund.

The broker says recent share price falls have elevated the chance of further outflows and churn in its Infrastructure Equities team.

On the flip side, the share price retreat validates an upgrade, says the broker.

Not so the target price. EPS forecasts fall -7.1% in FY24; -10.3% in FY25; and -10% thereafter.

Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target price cut to $7 from $9.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $0.34
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MFG as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett feels Magellan Financial's vulnerability to prolonged market downturns has been highlighted by funds under management updates following the company's full year results. 

The company has reported net institutional outflows of $1.7bn in the September quarter, exceeding Ord Minnett's expectations and equating to 68% of the broker's anticipated -$2.5bn outlfows for the entirety of the financial year. The broker is now anticipating full year  outflows of -$6.8bn. 

The rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target price decreases to $10.20 from $11.00.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $3.54
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Buy (1) -

Increased market volatility in September has seen the asset managers in UBS's coverage report report month-on-month funds under management declines. Flow trends remain challenging across the industry. 

Magellan Financial's funds under management declined -10% month-on-month, which was -4% below UBS's expectations. The result came off the back of a period of what UBS called "perceived stabilisation" and saw the share price take an -18.5% tumble. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $10.50 from $11.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $3.84
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Buy (1) -

While Citi acknowledges it may have gone to early on its Buy recommendation for Mineral Resources, given consensus downgrades to spot lithium prices, such a weak pricing environment presents an opportunity for this diversified lithium exposure. 

The broker forecasts lithium prices will track sideways for the next 12-18 months, but remains bullish on the long-term outlook. As a result, long-term pricing assumptions rise. The latest forecasts are: hydroxide US$23k/t, carbonate US$20k/t and hydroxide US$1600/t (real).

On a three-day investor tour, the analysts divined there is no other large-cap company/stock quite as agile and with as much growth pending over the coming few years.

Apart from growth, the Onslow iron ore operation is expected to deliver cash generation, notes the broker. 

Also, the December quarter has a number of catalysts including finalisation of the MARLB joint venture ownership, the independent expert's report on Bald Hill and a possible update on an Onslow haul road selldown, points out Citi.

The target rises to $82 from $79, despite lower earnings forecasts and targets across the broker's pure-play lithium miners under coverage.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $59.45 Difference: $22.55
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $77.14, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Add (1) -

Morgans believes some steel mills in China may be overproducing in anticipation of possible mandatory steel production cuts in late-2023. So, while iron ore fundamentals remain healthy the analysts feel there may be some short-term risk.

Evidence of this overproduction comes from high steel volumes despite low margins, explains the broker.

Despite this short-term view, Morgans maintains its bullish stance and expects iron ore's relative strength compared to several key commodities will continue in 2024. It's thought the market needs to support high-cost US$90-100/t supply to maintain balance.

Add-rated Rio Tinto and BHP Group stand out as safe havens, suggest the analysts, and offer potential value in both capital and dividend terms.

The Add rating for Mineral Resources is unchanged and the target falls to $83 from $84 though Morgans advises caution given the current key share price driver is the lithium price weakness/volatility.

Target price is $83.00 Current Price is $59.45 Difference: $23.55
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $77.14, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie emerges from restriction with an Outperform rating for Orora heading into the company's AGM on October 19, believing the Saverglass acquisition will accelerate the company's earnings profile.

Base growth is also forecast to be solid and the company is benefiting from a weak Australian dollar, observes the broker, which also notes industry destocking appears to have run its course.

The broker forecasts 5% growth in Australian and North American earnings (EBIT) in FY24 and a three-year compound annual growth rate of 8%.

The broker expects a 2-3 month digestion phase post the acquisition and capital raising.

Target price is $3.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.63
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 28.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi forecasts lithium prices will track sideways for the next 12-18 months, but remains bullish on the long-term outlook. As a result, long-term pricing assumptions rise. The latest forecasts are: hydroxide US$23k/t, carbonate US$20k/t and hydroxide US$1600/t (real).

Earnings estimates and target prices are lowered for the pure-play miners. The Pilbara Minerals target falls to $4.50 from $4.70 though its rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral after a share price fall.

Citi considers Pilbara Minerals the preferred exposure and the cleanest leverage to pricing while Allkem is preferred for its growth outlook.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.77
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.00, suggesting upside of 26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PTM as Neutral (3) -

Increased market volatility in September has seen the asset managers in UBS's coverage report report month-on-month funds under management declines. Flow trends remain challenging across the industry. 

While Platinum Asset Management is yet to report on its September results, marking-to-market sees UBS lower its earnings per share estimates by -8% and -13% in FY24 and FY25 respectively. The broker expects flows are unlikely to turn around anytime soon, and highlights cost pressures are mounting. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.20 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.005
If PTM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting upside of 23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PXA as Accumulate (2) -

Despite Pexa Group's shares taking a -7% tumble following the announcement of the company's acquisition of Smoove, Ord Minnett has maintained its rating and target price on the stock. The broker believes the decline may be the result of the market seeing the acquisition as proof that Pexa Group is too weak to enter the UK market organically. 

The broker does agree that the acquisition does not signal strength, and feels Pexa Group should make more meaningful inroads into the remortgage market before entering the more complex sales and purchase market with Smoove. 

The Accumulate rating and target price of $15.00 are retained.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $10.35 Difference: $4.65
If PXA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.53, suggesting upside of 33.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Rio Tinto is making progress in its ongoing aim to re-establish cost leadership in the Pilbara, following a presentation by management as part of a site visit for the financial community.

New 2024 production guidance of 323-338mt is marginally lower than the analysts expected. The Pilbara capex three-year average (2023-26) is US$3.8bn per year. This confirms to the broker the need to upgrade the Pilbara operations to achieve the aforementioned aim.

Mid-term unit cost guidance is for around US$20/t for Pilbara iron ore. 

The company expects China finished steel consumption to be up by 1-2% in 2023.

Target $124. Buy.

Target price is $124.00 Current Price is $113.20 Difference: $10.8
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $119.33, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has toured Rio Tinto's Pilbara operations. 2023 cost guidance was reaffirmed and September-quarter production was in line with forecasts.

Materials cost inflation has caused a US$4/t increase in unit costs, including a 150% rise in diesel. Another US$2/t had been driven by infrastructure investments, rising maintenance and heritage planning.

The Rhodes Ridge partnership and funding are still under discussion, advises the broker. 

When it comes to decarbonisation, the broker says company plans to shift to renewables to manage the bulk, advising 1GW of renewable capacity will drive a -50% cut in emissions.

Rio Tinto observes Chinese demand has been resilient and expect the market to grow in absolute terms.

Overweight rating and $135 target price retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $113.20 Difference: $21.8
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $119.33, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Add (1) -

Morgans believes some steel mills in China may be overproducing in anticipation of possible mandatory steel production cuts in late-2023. So, while iron ore fundamentals remain healthy the analysts feel there may be some short-term risk.

Evidence of this overproduction comes from high steel volumes despite low margins, explains the broker.

Despite this short-term view, Morgans maintains its bullish stance and expects iron ore's relative strength compared to several key commodities will continue in 2024. It's thought the market needs to support high-cost US$90-100/t supply to maintain balance.

Both Rio Tinto and BHP Group stand out as safe havens, suggest the analysts, and offer potential value in both capital and dividend terms. The Add is maintained for Rio Tinto and the target rises top $123 from $122.

Target price is $123.00 Current Price is $113.20 Difference: $9.8
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $119.33, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Although Rio Tinto management is confident in the turnaround of the company's iron ore business, UBS was left somewhat disappointed by guidance on 2024 shipments, iron ore quality and capital expenditure. The company is guiding to shipments between 323-338m tonnes, a result that would be broadly stable year-on-year. 

Rio Tinto is continuing studies on the Rhodes Ridge project, which it aims to start u pin 2029. UBS expects the "huge high grade deposit" to transform the company's mine supply.

The Neutral rating and target price of $115.00 are retained.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $113.20 Difference: $1.8
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $119.33, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SKO as Buy High Risk (1) -

While a weaker macroeconomic backdrop has the potential to impact travel, Citi retains its Buy High Risk rating for Serko and raises its target to $4.75 from $4.35. Another earnings upgrade driven by Booking.com for Business is anticipated.

The analysts point to strong active customer growth and bookings per customer for Bookings.com, especially in North America via the recent CWT partnership.

In addition, there has been stronger room rates and higher conversion thanks to user interface changes, explains the broker. Buy.

A  key risk to Citi's medium-term outlook is the renegotiation of the contract with Booking.com, which expires in late-2024.The broker's base case assumes the current contract is renewed for at least two years.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $1.09
If SKO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.89, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMP as Buy (1) -

Ahead of the release of SmartPay's interin results, expected in late November, Bell Potter has reduced its average revenue per user forecast to NZ$381.73 from NZ$402.73, while underlying earnings reduce to NZ$26.4m from NZ$25.5m. 

The update comes as a result of the ongoing economic climate, but the broker does see potential for further operating leverage to emerge for SmartPay. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.93 from $1.97.

Target price is $1.93 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.4
If SMP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates STA as Buy (1) -

Strandline Resources has released ore reserve drilling results, with the outcome in-line or better than the company had anticipated. Shaw and Partners highlights the results will underpin an expected resource and reserve update, likely to be announced in the first quarter, and used to support mine planning for years 3 through 5. 

Positively, the results reported some intercepts of relatively high grades of 2-4% total heavy mineral, compared to the overall mine grade of 1.1%. Despite this, Shaw and Partners expects a resource upgrade to be modest rather than significant. 

The Buy rating and target price of 57 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.478
If STA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 520% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WES as Buy (1) -

UBS has reviewed its take on Wesfarmers, incorporating recent downgrades on near-term lithium pricing and adjusting expected earnings for WesCEF. The broker expects lithium to support earnings growth for WesCEF as ammonia prices have decreased from recent highs. 

The broker reiterates that Bunnings and Kmart remain the key earnings drivers for Wesfarmers, comprising 56% and 20% of expected FY24 group.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decrease to $56.50 from $57.00.

Target price is $56.50 Current Price is $51.55 Difference: $4.95
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.36, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources