Australian Broker Call

Produced and copyrighted by at www.fnarena.com

October 09, 2023

Access Broker Call Report Archives here

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on symbol for fast access.

The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AMC - Amcor Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight Morgan Stanley
BHP - BHP Group Upgrade to Neutral from Sell UBS
BOQ - Bank of Queensland Downgrade to Sell from Neutral Citi
DRR - Deterra Royalties Upgrade to Neutral from Sell UBS
PNR - Pantoro Upgrade to Buy from Hold Bell Potter
RIO - Rio Tinto Upgrade to Neutral from Sell UBS
AMC  AMCOR PLC

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $14.04

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Guidance from Amcor suggests the company will continue to be challenged in the coming year, particularly in the first half. Morgan Stanley expects destocking progression and softening consumer demand will impact on the company's first half, but anticipates cost saving initiatives and price rises will take effect and drive a second half earnings lift. 

Despite challenges, Morgan Stanley finds Amcor to offer defensive earnings and quality management, and finds near-term challenges to be priced in. 

The rating is upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight and the target price increases to $14.50 from $14.00.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $14.04 Difference: $0.46
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.54, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 61.70 cents and EPS of 103.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 66.22 cents and EPS of 111.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.0, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ  ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Banks

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $25.32

Macquarie rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Despite minor positive earnings changes, Macquarie lowers its 12-month target prices across its coverage of the Banking sector. These lower targets arise after higher discount rates are incorporated into forecasts given the new term structure of rates.

On the earnings front, higher bond yields provide some margin relief from competition and deposit switching, note the analysts. Also, forecast charges for bad and doubtful debts are reduced based on current trends and healthy provisions.

Overall, Macquarie has an Underperform rating on the Bank sector.

For ANZ Bank, the target falls to $24.50 from $25. Neutral.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $25.32 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.94, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 164.00 cents and EPS of 236.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.1, implying annual growth of -4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 209.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 224.5, implying annual growth of -5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX  ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $57.02

Macquarie rates ASX as Outperform (1) -

While Q1 quarter FY24 futures volumes for the ASX increased by 8.9% on the previous corresponding period, led by strength in 90-day bills and supported by 3-year bonds, observes Macquarie. Equities trading volumes remained compressed, falling by -9.4%.

The broker's target falls to $60.00 from $64.50.

The Outperform rating is unchanged given the company's price earnings ratio is currently -23% below the three-year average. However, a lack of catalysts until an announcement relating to CHESS in the December quarter is considered a concern.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $57.02 Difference: $2.98
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.13, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 215.00 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 251.8, implying annual growth of 53.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 221.00 cents and EPS of 260.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.1, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 220.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BEN  BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED

Banks

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $8.98

Macquarie rates BEN as Underperform (5) -

Despite minor positive earnings changes, Macquarie lowers its 12-month target prices across its coverage of the Banking sector. These lower targets arise after higher discount rates are incorporated into forecasts given the new term structure of rates.

On the earnings front, higher bond yields provide some margin relief from competition and deposit switching, note the analysts. Also, forecast charges for bad and doubtful debts are reduced based on current trends and healthy provisions.

Overall, Macquarie has an Underperform rating on the Bank sector.

For Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, the broker lowers its target to $8.50 from $8.75 and retains its Underperform rating.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $8.98 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.17, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.2, implying annual growth of -5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.3, implying annual growth of 0.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP LIMITED

Crude Oil

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $43.97

UBS rates BHP as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS upgrades its ratings for the majority of iron ore stocks under coverage after raising its long-term iron ore price forecast to US$85/t from US$65/t, while noting consensus sits at US$75/t. The broker raise its global iron ore sector call to Neutral from Sell.

The analysts believe iron ore prices will fall by less than originally anticipated as costs will likely remain higher for longer.

Ex-China demand for iron ore will offset the generational reset for property in China, in the broker's opinion. It's thought around 90% of global steel demand and circa 87% of seaborne iron ore demand won't be driven by China residential property construction from 2025.

The UBS rating for BHP Group is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target rises to $43 from $36. Rio Tinto is the broker's preferred exposure over BHP, partly due to higher growth and returns and lower net debt.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $43.97 Difference: minus $0.97 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.73, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 385.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 394.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 229.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 380.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 432.2, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 265.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOQ  BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED

Banks

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $5.71

Citi rates BOQ as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Prior to FY23 results on Wednesday for Bank of Queensland, Citi is concerned by potential for an earnings miss against consensus expectations from lending woes, deposit costs and cost headwinds.

As risks are skewed to the downside the broker's rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral.

The target also falls to $5.00 from $5.75 after the analysts reduce FY24 and FY24 earnings by -4% and -9%, respectively.

Lending has displayed negative growth over the last six months, even as the company continues to grow its relatively expensive deposit book, which implies to Citi a lower net interest margin (NIM), as occurred in the 1H.

The broker is also concerned by the impact of top leadership changes over the last few years upon the business.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.94, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 63.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.4, implying annual growth of -19.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 49.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.8, implying annual growth of 6.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates BOQ as Underperform (5) -

Despite minor positive earnings changes, Macquarie lowers its 12-month target prices across its coverage of the Banking sector. These lower targets arise after higher discount rates are incorporated into forecasts given the new term structure of rates.

On the earnings front, higher bond yields provide some margin relief from competition and deposit switching, note the analysts. Also, forecast charges for bad and doubtful debts are reduced based on current trends and healthy provisions.

Overall, Macquarie has an Underperform rating on the Bank sector.

For Bank of Queensland, the target falls to $5.00 from $5.25 and the Underperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.94, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.4, implying annual growth of -19.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.8, implying annual growth of 6.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA  COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $100.04

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Despite minor positive earnings changes, Macquarie lowers its 12-month target prices across its coverage of the Banking sector. These lower targets arise after higher discount rates are incorporated into forecasts given the new term structure of rates.

On the earnings front, higher bond yields provide some margin relief from competition and deposit switching, note the analysts. Also, forecast charges for bad and doubtful debts are reduced based on current trends and healthy provisions.

Overall, Macquarie has an Underperform rating on the Bank sector.

For CommBank, the broker lowers its target to $87.50 from $89 and the Underperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $87.50 Current Price is $100.04 Difference: minus $12.54 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.00, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 455.00 cents and EPS of 576.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 569.1, implying annual growth of -5.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 457.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 460.00 cents and EPS of 569.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 587.3, implying annual growth of 3.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 469.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVN  CARNARVON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $0.15

Macquarie rates CVN as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie highlights offshore oil and gas permitting in Australia has become unworkable and until consultation processes can be better defined, there will be no new final investment decisions (FIDs).

Legal challenges from activists are causing significant delays and potential for capex overruns, in the broker's view.

As Santos is probably unwilling to take FID on Dorado in the current regulatory environment, Carnarvon Energy will need to preserve capital, suggest the analysts. It's thought a key risk is engagement by management in M&A activity.

The Underperform rating and 10c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If CVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.67.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG  DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Online media & mobile platforms

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $3.88

Macquarie rates DHG as Underperform (5) -

Despite an improvement in the listings market, Macquarie points out Underweight-rated Domain Holdings Australia is not showing the same amount of upside as Neutral-rated REA Group. Listings for Domain in September rose by 1% year-on-year.

However, there is structural growth in the group outside of the listings cycle with the broker's tracking of depth advertisements showing Platinum (including Platinum Edge) advertisements had the highest penetration.

Macquarie's target falls to $2.86 from $2.93 on lower overall earnings forecasts from both residential and commercial avenues.

Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: minus $1.02 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting downside of -10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of 129.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.2, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR  DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $4.74

UBS rates DRR as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS upgrades its ratings for the majority of iron ore stocks under coverage after raising its long-term iron ore price forecast to US$85/t from US$65/t, while noting consensus sits at US$75/t. The broker raise its global iron ore sector call to Neutral from Sell.

The analysts believe iron ore prices will fall by less than originally anticipated as costs will likely remain higher for longer.

Ex-China demand for iron ore will offset the generational reset for property in China, in the broker's opinion. It's thought around 90% of global steel demand and circa 87% of seaborne iron ore demand won't be driven by China residential property construction from 2025.

The UBS rating for Deterra Royalties is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target rises to $4.80 from $3.90. In the sector, Rio Tinto is preferred to BHP Group partly due to higher growth and returns and lower net debt.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.06
If DRR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 11.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of -12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

Iron Ore

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $21.06

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

UBS upgrades its ratings for the majority of iron ore stocks under coverage after raising its long-term iron ore price forecast to US$85/t from US$65/t, while noting consensus sits at US$75/t. The broker raise its global iron ore sector call to Neutral from Sell.

The analysts believe iron ore prices will fall by less than originally anticipated as costs will likely remain higher for longer.

Ex-China demand for iron ore will offset the generational reset for property in China, in the broker's opinion. It's thought around 90% of global steel demand and circa 87% of seaborne iron ore demand won't be driven by China residential property construction from 2025.

The UBS rating for Fortescue Metals is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target rises to $20.30 from $15.20. In the sector, Rio Tinto is preferred to BHP Group partly due to higher growth and returns and lower net debt.

Target price is $20.30 Current Price is $21.06 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.88, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 285.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 171.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.9, implying annual growth of -21.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GQG  GQG PARTNERS INC

Wealth Management & Investments

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $1.36

Ord Minnett rates GQG as Buy (1) -

GQG Partners remains one of the only listed asset managers generating positive net flow, and has now reported a strong third quarter update, notes Ord Minnett, with net flows exceeding expectations.  

Funds under management are up 1.6% quarter-on-quarter, spurred on by net flows of US$1.8bn. Ord Minnett commends the strong performance given the difficult macroeconomic environment. The broker expects longer-term strong investment performance to sustain longer-term net flows.

The Buy rating and target price of $2.15 are retained.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.79
If GQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 52.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.94 cents and EPS of 13.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.75 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JDO  JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $0.96

Macquarie rates JDO as Neutral (3) -

Despite minor positive earnings changes, Macquarie lowers its 12-month target prices across its coverage of the Banking sector. These lower targets arise after higher discount rates are incorporated into forecasts given the new term structure of rates.

On the earnings front, higher bond yields provide some margin relief from competition and deposit switching, note the analysts. Also, forecast charges for bad and doubtful debts are reduced based on current trends and healthy provisions.

Overall, Macquarie has an Underperform rating on the Bank sector.

For Judo Capital, the broker lowers its target to $1.05 from $1.15 and retains its Neutral rating.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.09
If JDO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of -24.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.2, implying annual growth of 44.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $60.95

UBS rates MIN as Sell (5) -

UBS upgrades its ratings for the majority of iron ore stocks under coverage after raising its long-term iron ore price forecast to US$85/t from US$65/t, while noting consensus sits at US$75/t. The broker raise its global iron ore sector call to Neutral from Sell.

The analysts believe iron ore prices will fall by less than originally anticipated as costs will likely remain higher for longer.

Ex-China demand for iron ore will offset the generational reset for property in China, in the broker's opinion. It's thought around 90% of global steel demand and circa 87% of seaborne iron ore demand won't be driven by China residential property construction from 2025.

UBS keeps its Sell rating and $60 target for Mineral Resources. In the sector, Rio Tinto is preferred to BHP Group partly due to higher growth and returns and lower net debt.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $60.95 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $76.86, suggesting upside of 29.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 353.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 392.8, implying annual growth of 208.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 487.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 796.5, implying annual growth of 102.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 368.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $28.94

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Despite minor positive earnings changes, Macquarie lowers its 12-month target prices across its coverage of the Banking sector. These lower targets arise after higher discount rates are incorporated into forecasts given the new term structure of rates.

On the earnings front, higher bond yields provide some margin relief from competition and deposit switching, note the analysts. Also, forecast charges for bad and doubtful debts are reduced based on current trends and healthy provisions.

Overall, Macquarie has an Underperform rating on the Bank sector, and Neutral-rated National Australia Bank is the preferred exposure.

The broker lowers its target for NAB to $28.50 from $29.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $28.94 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.56, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 167.00 cents and EPS of 238.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.8, implying annual growth of 11.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 213.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 216.3, implying annual growth of -9.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNR  PANTORO LIMITED

Gold & Silver

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $0.04

Bell Potter rates PNR as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Preliminary production figures for the September quarter shows growth at the Norseman Gold Project largely in-line with Bell Potter's estimate. A key swing factor for Pantoro, all-in-sustaining costs (AISC), are yet to be revealed.

Management noted mill head grades have improved, supported by open-pit and underground operations. The company is also looking at divestment alternatives for the Nicolsons gold mine which was on care and maintenance during the June quarter.

The broker's target is trimmed to 0.052c from 0.053c and the rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Following a share price decline, there's thought to be 41% upside from the last closing share price.

Target price is $0.05 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.015
If PNR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.33.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.85.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNV  POLYNOVO LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $1.20

Bell Potter rates PNV as Buy (1) -

PolyNovo has released a trading update showing accelerating sales for its biodegradable temporising matrix (BTM), notes Bell Potter, which can be applied to complex wounds and severe burns.

In addition, it was revealed the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) will provide an additional US$10m in funding for the pivotal trial program of NovoSorb.

The broker raises its target to $2.05 from $2.00 as a result of the expected reduction in net R&D for the company due to the additional funding from BARDA. Buy.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.85
If PNV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 53.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 400.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1240.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 109.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.4, implying annual growth of 1300.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 88.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PXS  PHARMAXIS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $0.04

Morgans rates PXS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Core operating expenses for Pharmaxis are forecast to decline by more than -60%, explains Morgans, with additional savings post separation after the company sold its mannitol respiratory business to Arna Pharma.

While Pharmaxis will receive no upfront fee for the business and there are nominal exit costs, royalties will be received for eight years on associated sales and products produced at a new Arna Pharma facility, note the analysts.

Pharmaxis has also restructured its board and re-badged to Syntara.

Morgans notes a strong and growing pipeline for a now smaller and more agile clinical-stage drug developer and raises its target to 17c from 13c. Speculative Buy.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.135
If PXS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 386% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.19.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.89.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA  REA GROUP LIMITED

Online media & mobile platforms

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $155.85

Macquarie rates REA as Neutral (3) -

Listings for REA Group rose by 7% year-on-year in September while depth penetration increased to 63% for Premier and Premier+ advertisements combined. Macquarie expects ongoing incremental earnings upgrades via higher listings and depth penetration.

Offsetting generally higher EPS forecasts is an -8% target price decline to $155, after the broker marked-to-market its valuation multiple, underpinned by the residential cycle. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $155.00 Current Price is $155.85 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $156.48, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 191.00 cents and EPS of 340.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 352.4, implying annual growth of 30.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 239.00 cents and EPS of 424.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 402.0, implying annual growth of 14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 229.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $113.19

UBS rates RIO as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS upgrades its ratings for the majority of iron ore stocks under coverage after raising its long-term iron ore price forecast to US$85/t from US$65/t, while noting consensus sits at US$75/t. The broker raise its global iron ore sector call to Neutral from Sell.

The analysts believe iron ore prices will fall by less than originally anticipated as costs will likely remain higher for longer.

Ex-China demand for iron ore will offset the generational reset for property in China, in the broker's opinion. It's thought around 90% of global steel demand and circa 87% of seaborne iron ore demand won't be driven by China residential property construction from 2025.

The UBS rating for Rio Tinto is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target rises to $115 from $95. Rio Tinto is preferred over BHP Group partly due to higher growth and returns and lower net debt.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $113.19 Difference: $1.81
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $119.00, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 1182.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1117.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 648.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 1172.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1173.2, implying annual growth of 5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 704.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD  RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $22.87

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers ResMed's 'clear runway' as a result of competitor Philips' recall to be even longer, with the latter having agreed to conduct further testing in relation to the PE-PUR sound abatement foam found in devices.

The additional testing comes at the request of the FDA, who found testing already conducted to be inadequate to evaluate risks posed to device users. In its initial testing Philips has found that exposure is unlikely to result in appreciable harm to patient health. 

The Equal-Weight rating is retained with a target price of US$180.00. Industry view: In-Line. 

Current Price is $22.87. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $36.89, suggesting upside of 60.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 104.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 114.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 117.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.6, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDF  STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $5.54

Morgan Stanley rates SDF as Equal-weight (3) -

Steadfast Group is set to make its entry into the US market having completed the acquisition of ISU Group. Morgan Stanley feels the company now has the tools necessary to replicate its business model in the US, and thinks it has taken a sensible and lower-risk entry pathway into the market. 

Among other benefits, the broker expects the acquisition to improve Steadfast Group's relationship with US carriers, some of which the company already partners with in Australia. 

The Equal-Weight rating and target price of $6.30 are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.54 Difference: $0.76
If SDF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 38.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 24.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SDF as Hold (3) -

Steadfast Group has expanded into the US market with the acquisition of ISU Group, at a cost of US$55m. While the purchase looks earnings accretive, the expected the earnings boost of $8m is not significant enough to impact on Ord Minnett's target price. 

The broker expects Steadfast Group will make more investment in the US market at some point, but likes that ISU Group offers a foothold to allow the company to better understand the market and opportunities before undertaking investments where more capital is at risk. 

The Hold rating and target price of $6.00 are retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.54 Difference: $0.46
If SDF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 38.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 30.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SDF as Buy (1) -

Steadfast Group has acquired ISU Group at a cost of US$55m, in a move UBS finds to be in line with the company's US expansion plans. Assuming the purchase is fully debt funded, the broker calculates a 1% earnings benefit to Steadfast Group.

UBS finds announcement an "initial and measured" entryway into a large and scalable market that it expects can extend Steadfast Group's growth runway and acquisition pipeline over time. 

The Buy rating and target price of $6.80 are retained.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.54 Difference: $1.26
If SDF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 38.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $7.35

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights offshore oil and gas permitting in Australia has become unworkable and, until consultation processes can be better defined, there will be no new final investment decisions (FIDs).

Legal challenges from activists are causing significant delays and potential for capex overruns, in the broker's view. It's noted capex for Santos is already pivoting to Papua and New Guinea and the US (Alaska).

The Outperform rating is kept for Santos given the current share price implies negative value for Barossa. The target falls to $9.60 from $9.90.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $7.35 Difference: $2.25
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.47, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 34.16 cents and EPS of 79.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 33.71 cents and EPS of 80.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.9, implying annual growth of 6.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC  WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $21.44

Macquarie rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Despite minor positive earnings changes, Macquarie lowers its 12-month target prices across its coverage of the Banking sector. These lower targets arise after higher discount rates are incorporated into forecasts given the new term structure of rates.

On the earnings front, higher bond yields provide some margin relief from competition and deposit switching, note the analysts. Also, forecast charges for bad and doubtful debts are reduced based on current trends and healthy provisions.

Overall, Macquarie has an Underperform rating on the Bank sector.

For Westpac, the broker lowers its target to $20.50 from $21.00 and retains its Neutral rating.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $21.44 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.28, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 142.00 cents and EPS of 202.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.4, implying annual growth of 28.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 174.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 185.0, implying annual growth of -9.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS  WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $34.19

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights offshore oil and gas permitting in Australia has become unworkable and, until consultation processes can be better defined, there will be no new final investment decisions (FIDs).

Legal challenges from activists are causing significant delays and potential for capex overruns, in the broker's view. It's noted capex for Woodside Energy is already pivoting to the US, Mexico and Senegal.

The analysts note Woodside shares have retraced since the Scarborough injunction and the pullback in oil prices, and now look less
expensive. It's felt the market is not yet pricing in delays or capex increases at this project.

Neutral rating. A $36 target is set.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $34.19 Difference: $1.81
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.15, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 201.66 cents and EPS of 253.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 267.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 213.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 227.24 cents and EPS of 284.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 272.1, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 217.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AMC Amcor $14.09 Morgan Stanley 14.50 14.00 3.57%
ANZ ANZ Bank $25.39 Macquarie 24.50 23.50 4.26%
ASX ASX $56.98 Macquarie 60.00 64.50 -6.98%
BEN Bendigo & Adelaide Bank $9.09 Macquarie 8.50 9.25 -8.11%
BHP BHP Group $44.00 UBS 43.00 36.00 19.44%
BOQ Bank of Queensland $5.71 Citi 5.00 5.75 -13.04%
Macquarie 5.00 5.75 -13.04%
CBA CommBank $100.03 Macquarie 87.50 88.00 -0.57%
DHG Domain Holdings Australia $3.83 Macquarie 2.86 2.80 2.14%
DRR Deterra Royalties $4.69 UBS 4.80 3.90 23.08%
FMG Fortescue Metals $20.64 UBS 20.30 15.20 33.55%
JDO Judo Capital $0.94 Macquarie 1.05 1.15 -8.70%
NAB National Australia Bank $28.96 Macquarie 28.50 27.50 3.64%
PNR Pantoro $0.04 Bell Potter 0.05 0.05 -1.89%
PNV PolyNovo $1.24 Bell Potter 2.05 2.00 2.50%
PXS Pharmaxis $0.03 Morgans 0.17 0.13 30.77%
REA REA Group $156.88 Macquarie 155.00 178.00 -12.92%
RIO Rio Tinto $112.81 UBS 115.00 95.00 21.05%
RMD ResMed $22.97 Morgan Stanley N/A 27.70 -100.00%
STO Santos $7.66 Macquarie 9.60 9.90 -3.03%
WBC Westpac $21.42 Macquarie 20.50 21.00 -2.38%
WDS Woodside Energy $35.18 Macquarie 36.00 34.00 5.88%
Summaries
AMC Amcor Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $14.04
ANZ ANZ Bank Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $25.32
ASX ASX Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $57.02
BEN Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.98
BHP BHP Group Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS Overnight Price $43.97
BOQ Bank of Queensland Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $5.71
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.71
CBA CommBank Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $100.04
CVN Carnarvon Energy Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.15
DHG Domain Holdings Australia Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.88
DRR Deterra Royalties Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS Overnight Price $4.74
FMG Fortescue Metals Sell - UBS Overnight Price $21.06
GQG GQG Partners Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.36
JDO Judo Capital Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.96
MIN Mineral Resources Sell - UBS Overnight Price $60.95
NAB National Australia Bank Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $28.94
PNR Pantoro Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Bell Potter Overnight Price $0.04
PNV PolyNovo Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $1.20
PXS Pharmaxis Speculative Buy - Morgans Overnight Price $0.04
REA REA Group Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $155.85
RIO Rio Tinto Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS Overnight Price $113.19
RMD ResMed Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $22.87
SDF Steadfast Group Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.54
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.54
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.54
STO Santos Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $7.35
WBC Westpac Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $21.44
WDS Woodside Energy Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $34.19
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

7

3. Hold

13

5. Sell

8

Monday 09 October 2023

Access Broker Call Report Archives here

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.