Australian Broker Call

Produced and copyrighted by at www.fnarena.com

September 21, 2023

Access Broker Call Report Archives here

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on symbol for fast access.

The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
29M - 29Metals Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
BHP - BHP Group Downgrade to Lighten from Hold Ord Minnett
DRR - Deterra Royalties Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
IGO - IGO Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
NHC - New Hope Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
S32 - South32 Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
29M  29METALS LIMITED

Copper

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $0.65

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley updates its modelling to allow for higher 2024 copper prices and 2025 gold prices,, as well as a lower Australian dollar over 2023-24.

The broker upgrades 29Metals to Overweight from Equal-weight based on valuation and because balance-sheet concerns are being resolved through the entitlement offer amid potential for a faster-than-expected re-start at Capricorn Copper.

Target is raised to $0.85 from $0.75. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.2
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.79, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -27.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 32.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

360  LIFE360 INC

Software & Services

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $8.62

Bell Potter rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes the third quarter is traditionally the strongest for Life360 amid a return to school in the northern hemisphere.

The highlight of the upcoming quarter could be net growth in paying circles returning to around the 100,000 level, which would be an achievement considering the average price rise for existing and legacy subscribers in the US was around 50%, for iOS users in the fourth quarter of 2022, and for android users in the second quarter 2023.

The broker makes no changes to forecasts, continuing to expect 2023 revenue and adjusted EBITDA of US$310.8m and US$13.9m, respectively. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $11.00 from $10.50.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.62 Difference: $2.38
If 360 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.10.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.62.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP LIMITED

Crude Oil

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $44.64

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes iron ore prices have rallied on hopes of softer implementation of steel production reductions. From a fundamental view, the broker's expectations of a longer tail for prices appears to be materialising, with 2024 forecasts revised up 27% to US$105/t.

The broker upgrades FY24-25 estimates for BHP Group  because of higher copper and iron ore price forecasts.  Target is raised to $43.90 from $43.10. Equal-weight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $43.90 Current Price is $44.64 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.57, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 219.45 cents and EPS of 381.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 376.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 162.33 cents and EPS of 293.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 411.5, implying annual growth of 9.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 248.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates BHP as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett/Morningstar have somehow lost the incentive to report a downgrade as a downgrade. Today's Lighten rating compares with Hold in late August. Valuation has remained at $39.50.

Commentary suggests commodity prices have stabilised this quarter on expectations of successful China stimulus. On the other hand, the mining sector feels the need to ramp up investments, including exploration expenditure.

The following statement tells the story: "Excluding impairments, we forecast midcycle returns slightly above our estimated cost of capital". No changes are made to forecasts.

Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $44.64 Difference: minus $5.14 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.57, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 427.93 cents and EPS of 647.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 376.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 383.44 cents and EPS of 594.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 411.5, implying annual growth of 9.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 248.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRD  CONRAD ASIA ENERGY LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $1.38

Bell Potter rates CRD as Speculative Buy (1) -

Conrad Asia Energy has signed a term sheet with Sembcorp Industries for negotiating a binding gas sales agreement for the Mako gas project by the end of 2023. Sembcorp is a Singapore government backed entity.

Total sales volumes from Mako are expected to be up to 392Bcf and gas sales will be priced as a percentage of prevailing Brent crude oil prices

 Bell Potter envisages multiple catalysts for the company as it de-risks the project and retains a Speculative Buy rating, reducing the target to $2.30 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.92
If CRD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.57.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.50.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY  CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $2.51

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Cleanaway Waste Management is overcoming recent issues related to labour markets and its health business. The company is targeting EBIT of $500m and EPS growth of 22% compounded by FY26.

The broker assesses the operating environment is improving and continues to like the longer-term outlook as profitability recovers, given the company's competitive position.

Macquarie highlights the valuation discount that has opened up relative to US peers and retains a $3 target and Outperform rating.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.49
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.74, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.40 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of 777.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.40 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of 19.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CYC  CYCLOPHARM LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $2.49

Bell Potter rates CYC as Speculative Buy (1) -

Cyclopharm "is on the cusp of greatness", in Bell Potter's view, with the impending decision from the US FDA on Technegas.

The initial addressable market for Technegas is estimated at 600,000 examinations annually with the company expected to reach 80% market penetration by year five or 2028.

The anticipated rapid entry into the US is likely to require significant working capital and Bell Potter highlights its earnings modeling does not include a further capital raising at this point. Speculative Buy rating retained. Target rises to $3.25 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: $0.76
If CYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 40.82.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 124.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR  DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $4.82

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes iron ore prices have rallied on hopes of softer implementation of steel production reductions. From a fundamental view, the broker's expectations of a longer tail for prices appears to be materialising, with 2024 forecasts revised up 27% to US$105/t.

Morgan Stanley envisages value upside for Deterra Royalties and upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target is raised to $5.50 from $4.60. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: $0.68
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.1, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.70 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of -12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates DRR as Lighten (4) -

Deterra Royalties has kept its Lighten rating and $3.90 valuation as Ord Minnett/Morningstar analysts have updated their projections and thoughts on the mining sector.

Key statement: "Over the long term, China's economy is likely to transition to a more consumption-based economy as opposed to investment-based one, which is a headwind for commodity demand".

No changes have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: minus $0.92 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.40 cents and EPS of 29.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.1, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.70 cents and EPS of 27.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of -12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT  FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $19.70

Citi rates FLT as Buy (1) -

As International airline capacity and more complex trips are returning as the last leg of the post 2020 pandemic recovery, Citi  analysts suggest Flight Centre Travel looks like a logical next recovery play.

Citi can see a pathway to an 18-24 month upgrade cycle for the company, which should bode well for earnings and the share price.

Buy rating retained. The upcoming AGM might well become a positive catalyst, the analysts suggest.

Target price is $25.85 Current Price is $19.70 Difference: $6.15
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.25, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 97.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.6, implying annual growth of 326.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 77.50 cents and EPS of 137.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.4, implying annual growth of 41.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

Iron Ore

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $20.61

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley observes iron ore prices have rallied on hopes of softer implementation of steel production reductions. From a fundamental view, the broker's expectations of a longer tail for prices appears to be materialising, with 2024 forecasts revised up 27% to US$105/t.

The higher iron ore price forecasts for FY24-25 drive the broker's estimates for Fortescue Metals higher. Underweight maintained. Target is raised to $16.30 from $15.35. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $20.61 Difference: minus $4.31 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.12, suggesting downside of -21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 247.26 cents and EPS of 251.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 151.21 cents and EPS of 166.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.2, implying annual growth of -20.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates FMG as Lighten (4) -

Fortescue Metals has kept its Lighten rating and $15 valuation as Ord Minnett/Morningstar analysts have updated their projections and thoughts on the mining sector.

Key statement: "Over the long term, China's economy is likely to transition to a more consumption-based economy as opposed to investment-based one, which is a headwind for commodity demand".

No changes have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $20.61 Difference: minus $5.61 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.12, suggesting downside of -21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 251.02 cents and EPS of 385.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 200.21 cents and EPS of 306.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.2, implying annual growth of -20.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO  IGO LIMITED

Gold & Silver

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $12.64

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes battery material inventories are high and suspects this could cause weaker demand for battery materials into 2024. The broker envisages pressure on lithium and nickel prices.

Morgan Stanley updates its modelling for IGO, adjusting forecasts in line with company guidance. Lower spodumene prices are now forecast for FY24 while higher lithium price forecasts for FY25 drive estimates higher for that year.

Given the valuation gap between the current price and the broker's base case the rating is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight. Target is reduced to $11.60 from $13.40. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $11.60 Current Price is $12.64 Difference: minus $1.04 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.00, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 151.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.7, implying annual growth of 125.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 77.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 167.0, implying annual growth of 2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU  ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $7.93

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Accumulate (2) -

Iluka Resources has kept its Accumulate rating and $10.50 fair value estimate as Ord Minnett/Morningstar analysts have updated their projections and thoughts on the mining sector.

Key statement: "Over the long term, China's economy is likely to transition to a more consumption-based economy as opposed to investment-based one, which is a headwind for commodity demand".

Dividend estimates in particular appear to have been lowered.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $2.57
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.79, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 79.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.2, implying annual growth of -43.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 82.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 4.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD  KMD BRANDS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $0.74

Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

FY23 earnings grew 15% although they missed Macquarie's estimates. A moderation occurred in the second half with sales and EBITDA down -3% and -26%, respectively.

The broker observes KMD Brands will still battle tough comparables for the balance of 2023 in the current climate, amid ongoing uncertainty regarding consumer confidence and hitting margin targets.

As a result Macquarie sets the price target to $0.70 from $0.90 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.80, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.45 cents and EPS of 6.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.29 cents and EPS of 8.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of 25.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates KMD as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes the FY23 result from KMD Brands was in line with previous guidance. The broker expects the market to remain cautious as soft trading continues into the first half of FY24.

Sales were up 13% and gross margins up 20 percentage points to 59.1% in FY23. Rip Curl sales were up 8% and Kathmandu sales up 11% with Oboz sales up 62%. All short-medium-term targets were reiterated.

Equal-weight rating and $0.90 target maintained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.165
If KMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.80, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.07 cents and EPS of 7.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 9.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of 25.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MVF  MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $1.30

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Medicare statistics for August show total cycles grew 20.3%. Over the medium term Macquarie expects reproductive carrier screening will support significant incremental IVF volume as it is added to the Medical Benefits Scheme from November.

The broker forecasts a further 140 basis points of market share gains in FY24, underpinned by acquisitions and specialist recruitment. Outperform retained. Target is $1.40.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.105
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.35, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.80 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.2, implying annual growth of 28.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Copper

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $26.70

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Accumulate (2) -

Newcrest Mining has kept its Accumulate rating and $33 fair value estimation as Ord Minnett/Morningstar analysts updated their projections and thoughts on the mining sector.

The broker suggests concerns over interest rates are holding back the price of gold, and in extension share prices in gold producers which are deemed significantly undervalued.

No changes have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $26.70 Difference: $6.3
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.08, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 63.13 cents and EPS of 208.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 63.13 cents and EPS of 208.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 164.6, implying annual growth of -3.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC  NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $6.15

Ord Minnett rates NHC as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Today's Hold rating compares with Accumulate in early June. Ord Minnett/Morningstar have lost the habit of reporting downgrades as downgrades.

New Hope's FY23 performance is labeled as "strong" as higher pricing for thermal coal offset declining production volumes due to wet weather. The broker highlights El Nino should prove a better operational environment.

It is the broker's view New Hope should continue to enjoy elevated pricing for its coal volumes, with thermal coal pricing forecast to average US$170/tonne in FY24, and US$150/t between FY25-FY27. Fair value: $6.10.

Forecasts have been lowered on a slower ramp up for New Acland stage three.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $6.15 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.28, suggesting downside of -13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.60 cents and EPS of 72.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.0, implying annual growth of -46.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 34.30 cents and EPS of 81.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.6, implying annual growth of 3.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $117.03

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes iron ore prices have rallied on hopes of softer implementation of steel production reductions. From a fundamental view, the broker's expectations of a longer tail for prices appears to be materialising, with 2024 forecasts revised up 27% to US$105/t.

Higher iron ore and copper price forecasts for 2024-26 result in an increase in the broker's estimates over 2023-26 for Rio Tinto. Target is raised to $135.00 from $122.50. Overweight maintained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $117.03 Difference: $17.97
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.00, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 647.83 cents and EPS of 1074.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1062.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 626.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 725.99 cents and EPS of 1206.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1174.1, implying annual growth of 10.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 713.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates RIO as Hold (3) -

Rio Tinto has kept its Hold rating and $107 fair value calculation as Ord Minnett/Morningstar analysts have updated their projections and thoughts on the mining sector.

Key statement: "Over the long term, China's economy is likely to transition to a more consumption-based economy as opposed to investment-based one, which is a headwind for commodity demand".

Here's another one: "Excluding impairments, we forecast midcycle returns slightly above our estimated cost of capital".

No changes have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $107.00 Current Price is $117.03 Difference: minus $10.03 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $116.00, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 966.78 cents and EPS of 1740.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1062.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 626.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 924.85 cents and EPS of 1666.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1174.1, implying annual growth of 10.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 713.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $3.33

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

As Ord Minnett/Morningstar analysts have updated their projections and thoughts on the mining sector, South32 is now rated as Accumulate, with an unchanged fair value estimation of 44.10.

Key statement: "Over the long term, China's economy is likely to transition to a more consumption-based economy as opposed to investment-based one, which is a headwind for commodity demand".

No changes have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.77
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.19, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.29 cents and EPS of 47.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.06 cents and EPS of 61.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.9, implying annual growth of 51.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM  SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $14.03

Macquarie rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

Sims has sold its 50% share in LMS Energy to Pacific Equity Partners for $272.1m. Macquarie considers this a "solid" outcome but does not alter concerns regarding the state of the macro environment.

The company will allocate the capital to growing its metals business where consolidation potential is envisaged in the US. The broker lifts the target to $14.20 from $13.30 and maintains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $14.03 Difference: $0.17
If SGM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.75, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 61.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.6, implying annual growth of -55.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 137.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.4, implying annual growth of 189.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIG  SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Health & Nutrition

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $0.76

Citi rates SIG as Neutral (3) -

Adjusted for one-off items, including the sale of the Hospital business for $8.7m, Citi analysts believe Sigma Healthcare's interim performance was in line with forecasts, though sales revenues "missed" by some -3%.

Management has reaffirmed EBIT guidance of $26-31m, with no impact anticipated from 60 days dispensing, and with an EBIT margin mid-term target of 1.5-2.5%.

The Chemist Warehouse contract, beginning on 1 July 2024, requires an -$150m investment in working capital, according to management's estimate. Citi doesn't think this requires a capital raising.

Forecasts are now incorporating lower sales and thinner margins. Neutral. Target $0.80.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.045
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.82, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 755.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of 288.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 108.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.20 cents and EPS of 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of 242.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SIG as Neutral (3) -

Sigma Healthcare has stabilised its business over the past year, Macquarie asserts, addressing significant operating issues.

The broker revises earnings forecasts for FY24 and FY25 down -29.0% and up 21.6%, respectively, given the moving forward of the Chemist Warehouse contract acquisition costs to non-recurring items.

Revenue headwinds are expected over the next year, affected by the cycling of covid-related sales and sales associated with the hospital assets, now disposed. Neutral retained. Target is $0.82.

Target price is $0.82 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.065
If SIG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.82, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 151.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of 288.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 108.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.60 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of 242.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates SIG as Buy (1) -

First half net profit was broadly in line with the estimates from Shaw and Partners. Sigma Healthcare has reiterated FY24 EBIT guidance of $26-31m.

The broker observes the business is on track to achieve an EBIT margin in the range of 1.5-2.5% as the new Chemist Warehouse contract commences on July 1, 2024.

This contract will require between -$150-200m in additional inventory, on the broker's estimates, largely expected to be funded by debt. Shaw and Partners retains a Buy rating and $0.90 target.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.145
If SIG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.82, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 83.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of 288.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 108.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of 242.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SQ2  BLOCK INC

Business & Consumer Credit

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $76.92

Ord Minnett rates SQ2 as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett/Morningstar has been disappointed with the scalability of Block's business, which continues to operate at lower-than-forecast margins, despite management making large investments in recent years.

The broker has now pared back its margin assumptions, and this has an impact on the fair value calculation, which has shifted to $83 from $98 at Morningstar. Ord Minnett has lowered its price target to $128 from $147 in early August.

The fact that CEO Jack Dorsey is now also the head of Square is not seen as "optimal". The broker is hoping this is only a temporary situation. Accumulate.

Target price is $128.00 Current Price is $76.92 Difference: $51.08
If SQ2 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 122.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 63.05.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 170.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.11.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC  WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $6.69

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley updates its modelling to account for higher thermal coal price forecasts, supported by Chinese imports, for FY24-25 and a lower FY23-24 Australian dollar.

Taking into account the latest production and cost guidance from Whitehaven Coal the broker's earnings estimates increase while the base case value decreases largely because of higher royalties.

Overweight maintained. Target is reduced to $7.75 from $8.20. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $6.69 Difference: $1.06
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.06, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 128.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.5, implying annual growth of -71.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.2, implying annual growth of -10.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
29M 29Metals $0.71 Morgan Stanley 0.85 0.75 13.33%
360 Life360 $8.70 Bell Potter 11.00 10.50 4.76%
AWC Alumina Ltd $1.01 Morgan Stanley 1.40 1.45 -3.45%
BHP BHP Group $44.10 Morgan Stanley 43.90 44.10 -0.45%
CRD Conrad Asia Energy $1.38 Bell Potter 2.30 2.40 -4.17%
CYC Cyclopharm $2.49 Bell Potter 3.25 3.10 4.84%
DRR Deterra Royalties $4.92 Morgan Stanley 5.50 4.65 18.28%
EVN Evolution Mining $3.57 Morgan Stanley 4.35 3.90 11.54%
FMG Fortescue Metals $20.44 Morgan Stanley 16.30 16.45 -0.91%
IGO IGO $12.10 Morgan Stanley 11.60 13.40 -13.43%
ILU Iluka Resources $7.78 Morgan Stanley 8.20 10.25 -20.00%
KMD KMD Brands $0.76 Macquarie 0.70 0.90 -22.22%
MIN Mineral Resources $67.05 Morgan Stanley 74.00 70.00 5.71%
NCM Newcrest Mining $26.81 Morgan Stanley 27.90 25.00 11.60%
NST Northern Star Resources $10.83 Morgan Stanley 11.90 11.20 6.25%
PLS Pilbara Minerals $3.98 Morgan Stanley 3.45 3.75 -8.00%
RIO Rio Tinto $115.90 Morgan Stanley 135.00 122.50 10.20%
RRL Regis Resources $1.60 Morgan Stanley 1.95 1.70 14.71%
SGM Sims $13.67 Macquarie 14.20 13.30 6.77%
SIG Sigma Healthcare $0.76 Citi 0.80 0.52 53.85%
SQ2 Block $73.30 Ord Minnett 128.00 147.00 -12.93%
SYR Syrah Resources $0.46 Morgan Stanley 0.60 0.85 -29.41%
WHC Whitehaven Coal $6.70 Morgan Stanley 7.75 8.20 -5.49%
Summaries
29M 29Metals Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.65
360 Life360 Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $8.62
BHP BHP Group Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $44.64
Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $44.64
CRD Conrad Asia Energy Speculative Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $1.38
CWY Cleanaway Waste Management Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.51
CYC Cyclopharm Speculative Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $2.49
DRR Deterra Royalties Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.82
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.82
FLT Flight Centre Travel Buy - Citi Overnight Price $19.70
FMG Fortescue Metals Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $20.61
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $20.61
IGO IGO Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $12.64
ILU Iluka Resources Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.93
KMD KMD Brands Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.74
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.74
MVF Monash IVF Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.30
NCM Newcrest Mining Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $26.70
NHC New Hope Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.15
RIO Rio Tinto Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $117.03
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $117.03
S32 South32 Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.33
SGM Sims Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $14.03
SIG Sigma Healthcare Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $0.76
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.76
Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $0.76
SQ2 Block Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $76.92
WHC Whitehaven Coal Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.69
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

11

2. Accumulate

4

3. Hold

8

4. Reduce

3

5. Sell

2

Thursday 21 September 2023

Access Broker Call Report Archives here

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.