ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED (ORG)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Infrastructure & Utilities
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Utilities
Debt/EBITDA: 1.07
Index: ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Origin Energy is an Australian natural gas and exploration company. It was formed in 2000 as a result of a de-merger from Boral. The company has a large exploration portfolio in Australia and is a major shareholder in the Australia Pacific LNG joint venture.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$7.95

07 Dec
2023

-0.050

OPEN

$7.98

-0.62%

HIGH

$8.00

5,044,901

LOW

$7.85

TARGET
$8.83 11.1% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AGL . AIA . ALX . APA . CEN . DBI . DBI . GNP . MEZ . SRJ . TCL .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
ORG: 1
Title FY22
Actual		 FY23
Actual		 FY24
Forecast		 FY25
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 61.3 64.4 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 36.5 49.0 xxx
EPS Growth xxx N/A 5.0% xxx
DPS Growth xxx 25.9% 34.2% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 12.2 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 6.3% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 59.5% 76.1% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 7.03%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 4.66

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 05/09 - ex-div 20c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2023 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201820192020202120222023
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx61.3
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx36.5
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx16,375.0 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx516.6
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,051.0 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6.44 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201820192020202120222023
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx11.17 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8.43 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.91 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx11.17 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx19.66 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx111.0 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201820192020202120222023
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx192 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,066 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,258 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,964 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx930 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.63

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201820192020202120222023
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx475.0 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.90 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx13,633 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx228 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8,172 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.5

No. Of Recommendations

4
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgans

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

25/10/2023

1

Overweight

$8.88

11.70%

Morgan Stanley has reviewed the independent expert's report attached to the Origin Energy Scheme Booklet published on 19 October and noted some assumptions underpinning the valuation estimate of between $8.45-9.48 per share.

The analysts points out the independent expert does not appear to explicitly value Origin's ESG initiatives, including its Climate Transition Action Plan. Additionally, no synergy value is placed on the acquirer's undertaking to build renewable generation and storage.

The independent expert did concede valuing Origin Energy is "both challenging and subject to considerable uncertainty".

The broker's $8.88 target and Overweight rating are unchanged. Industry view: Cautious.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 51.00 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 69.00 cents.

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

-1

xx xxxxxx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >

ORG STOCK CHART

FNArena News on ORG

1
November In Review: Equities Up As Bond Yields Slide

Dec 06 2023 - Australia
2
In Brief: Home Loans, Coffee, Gas & Classifieds

Dec 01 2023 - Weekly Reports
3
ESG Focus: The Little Big Things – 15-11-2023

Nov 15 2023 - ESG Focus
4
ESG Focus: The Little Big Things – 18-10-2023

Oct 18 2023 - ESG Focus
5
Rudi’s View: CSL, ResMed, Domino’s Pizza, Helloworld, Iress and Liontown

Oct 11 2023 - Rudi's View

Latest Infrastructure & Utilities News

1
ESG Focus: The Little Big Things – 15-11-2023

Nov 15 2023 - ESG Focus
2
ESG Focus: ESG-Linked Remuneration Now In Focus

Oct 19 2023 - ESG Focus
3
Book Excerpt: Need To Know About Investing In Infrastructure

Jun 09 2023 - Book Reviews
4
The Prudence Of Infrastructure In A Recession

Jun 09 2023 - International
5
Building A Road Back to Surplus In Victoria

Jun 06 2023 - Australia
6
Treasure Chest: APA Group’s Electric Future

May 31 2023 - Treasure Chest
7
Transurban In A Sweet Spot

Apr 18 2023 - Australia
8
AGL Energy Calls It Quits on Coal

Oct 04 2022 - ESG Focus
9
Origin Exits Gas for Clean Energy

Sep 21 2022 - ESG Focus
10
Treasure Chest: Underweight On Origin

Jul 06 2022 - Treasure Chest