Australian Broker Call

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June 03, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AQG - Alacer Gold Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
EVN - Evolution Mining Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
JBH - JB Hi-Fi Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
NCM - Newcrest Mining Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
NST - Northern Star Downgrade to Sell from Neutral UBS
ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $26.91

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Citi expects a protracted slowdown in the US land-based business before normalisation by FY22. The earlier the re-opening of casinos occurs the better for the FY20 exit run rate and outlook for FY21.

US Class II business is likely to be the first to recover as this is reopening very quickly, the broker observes.

Australasia will be boosted by the reopening of NSW pubs, clubs and casinos. Buy rating and $30.10 target retained.

Target price is $30.10 Current Price is $26.91 Difference: $3.19
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.89, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of -38.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 105.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.0, implying annual growth of 62.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMI  AURELIA METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $0.45

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Quarterly production is likely to be materially stronger in the fourth quarter compared with Macquarie's original estimates.

The broker revises estimates in line with the company's update which drives an $8m lift to net profit in FY20.

A maiden resource for the Federation project is expected shortly. Outperform rating and $0.50 target retained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.05
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.64.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ  AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP

Banks

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Overnight Price: $18.91

Macquarie rates ANZ as Underperform (5) -

ANZ Bank has divested UDC Finance for NZ$762m. Macquarie considers this a positive outcome, although not material enough to affect the overall investment outlook. The bank's capital position should improve by around 10 basis points.

Macquarie adjusts net profit estimate down by around -1% to account for the sale and upgrades earnings per share by 1.0%, given the capital benefit. Underperform rating and $18.50 target maintained.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $18.91 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.66, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 118.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 124.6, implying annual growth of -40.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 123.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.0, implying annual growth of 26.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

ANZ Bank has sold UDC Finance in New Zealand to Shinsei Bank for NZ$762m. Morgan Stanley considers the sale a non-core business and the capital release as an incremental positive.

Overweight. Target is $17.10. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $18.91 Difference: minus $1.81 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.66, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 126.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 124.6, implying annual growth of -40.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 95.00 cents and EPS of 139.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.0, implying annual growth of 26.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQG  ALACER GOLD CORP

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $8.90

UBS rates AQG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

The Australian dollar gold price has increased by 18% over the year to date driving the ASX gold index 24% higher. However, UBS notes relative performance among stocks has diverged.

Alacer Gold is downgraded to Neutral from Buy because of the share price outperformance. Target is raised to $10.30 from $9.50.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: $1.4
If AQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.30, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 96.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 87.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 5.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF  ARENA REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.50

Macquarie rates ARF as Outperform (1) -

Arena REIT has undertaken a $60m equity raising. Macquarie notes the balance sheet gearing will decline to 17.6%, materially below the target range of 35-40%.

The equity raising is assessed to be -4.3% dilutive to FY21 earnings per share before deployment of the proceeds. This can be recouped by deploying the proceeds in social infrastructure assets.

Meanwhile, rent relief discussions are complete across around 50% of tenants that are eligible. Outperform retained. Target is raised 7.3% to $2.63.

Target price is $2.63 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: $0.13
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.90 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of -35.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.10 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.6, implying annual growth of -2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BAP  BAPCOR LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $6.11

Macquarie rates BAP as Outperform (1) -

Automotive recovery continues to accelerate, Macquarie observes. Earnings visibility also remains high relative to the broader market. The broker envisages further upside for the company's trade segment and specialist wholesale channels.

In the medium term the ageing of the Australian vehicle fleet should boost the aftermarket, while increased domestic travel and a preference for driving as opposed to public transport for commuters should underpin activity in the short term.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $6.70 from $5.40.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: $0.59
If BAP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.37, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 25.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.9, implying annual growth of -24.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 26.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKW  BRICKWORKS LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $16.01

Citi rates BKW as Buy (1) -

From the company's update, Citi considers the industrial property portfolio is resilient. However, Australian building product sales have fallen -10% in the four months to May as projects are completed and new project commencements slow down.

This is consistent with the broker's forecasts for a sales reduction of -32% in June and July. Earnings (EBIT) of $17m for building products are forecast for the second half.

Potential government housing stimulus could offset the slowdown, but this should be of benefit in 9-12 months time, given the late-cycle exposure to the construction process.

Meanwhile, the sales decline in North America is more severe and the US continues to be challenging. Buy rating and $14.20 target maintained.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $16.01 Difference: minus $1.81 (current price is over target).
If BKW meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.19, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 111.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.8, implying annual growth of -8.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 43.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of -42.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates BKW as Outperform (1) -

The trading update for the first four months of the second half was better than Macquarie expected. There has been uninterrupted property development and no material rental income issues.

Brickworks has taken action to reduce costs, including cutting capacity and laying off personnel, with some US lay-offs part of the plant rationalisation process.

Macquarie continues to envisage value in the stock as it is trading at a -23% discount to the inferred asset value and the prospect of government stimulus should support demand.

Outperform retained. Target is raised to $17.80 from $16.30.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $16.01 Difference: $1.79
If BKW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.19, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 83.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.8, implying annual growth of -8.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 56.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of -42.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR  CARSALES.COM LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $16.92

UBS rates CAR as Neutral (3) -

UBS upgrades sales forecasts, observing a steep pick up in buyer demand, amid industry feedback which suggests that, for certain dealers, volumes, prices and gross margins have returned close to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in used cars.

The broker envisages FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) of $195m growing to $220m in FY21. Neutral maintained. Target rises to $16.00 from $12.50.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $16.92 Difference: minus $0.92 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.25, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 36.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.5.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.4, implying annual growth of 14.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COH  COCHLEAR LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $195.21

UBS rates COH as Sell (5) -

UBS has brought forward estimates for the earnings recovery, expected from the first half of FY21. Product sales are now expected to reach pre-pandemic volumes by the first half of FY22.

However, downside risks remain should further waves of infection result in the cessation of elective surgery procedures in key jurisdictions. Sell rating maintained. Target is raised to $160.50 from $150.00.

Target price is $160.50 Current Price is $195.21 Difference: minus $34.71 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $181.83, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 270.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 72.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 264.9, implying annual growth of -44.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 173.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 73.7.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 312.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 62.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 329.8, implying annual growth of 24.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU  COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $13.38

Credit Suisse rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse believes the rebound in the share price since the lows in March is largely justified because of the increased clarity around mortgage servicing risks and an improvement in operating conditions.

However, lower margin income is a headwind in FY20-21 which the company will not be able to offset. A further -5-10% drop in earnings in FY21 is expected following a -20% fall in FY20. Growth is expected to return in FY22.

Credit Suisse reiterates a Neutral rating and raises the target to $13.90 from $10.75.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $13.38 Difference: $0.52
If CPU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.25, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 61.02 cents and EPS of 82.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 56.56 cents and EPS of 75.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.0, implying annual growth of -6.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $5.86

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Evolution Mining is considering divesting its Cracow gold mine, reports Ord Minnett, although no agreement has been entered into so far.

The company expects the mine to produce 82,500-87,500oz of gold at a cost of $1,200-1,250/oz in FY20 while Ord Minnett estimates 86,000oz at $1,250/oz and assumes a mine life until September 2023.

The broker wonders if other divestments will follow after this one and comments the company has done well to hold on to Cracow until this higher pricing environment.

The broker maintains its Sell rating with a target price of $3.70.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $5.86 Difference: minus $2.16 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting downside of -16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 71.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 34.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates EVN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

The Australian dollar gold price has increased by 18% over the year to date driving the ASX gold index 24% higher. However, UBS notes relative performance among stocks has diverged.

Evolution Mining has improved 63% over the year to date, outperforming peers.

From here, UBS believes a higher gold price or material improvement in operations is required and downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.86 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting downside of -16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 71.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.5.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 34.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFN  INFIGEN ENERGY

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Overnight Price: $0.81

Ord Minnett rates IFN as Hold (3) -

Broker Ord Minnett highlights UAC Energy Holdings is looking to purchase a 17.1% stake in Infigen Energy. The broker considers the company to be a potential acquisition target with its implied value well below the cost to build new wind farm assets.

The offer price by UAC energy is at a 36% premium to the latest closing price, comments the broker, and expects this offer to lead to a flurry of proposals from other entities as well.

The broker reaffirms its Hold rating with a target price of $0.74.

Target price is $0.74 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If IFN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.61, suggesting downside of -24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of -4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.3, implying annual growth of -19.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IRE  IRESS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $11.51

Credit Suisse rates IRE as Neutral (3) -

Iress has raised $170m to acquire OneVue Holdings ((OVH)) for $115m. This will bring scale in funds administration platform services to the company's existing software capabilities.

Still, Credit Suisse points out an equity raising, in excess of requirements, to acquire a business that is just breaking even suggests a substantial dilution of around -10% pre-synergies.

In the longer term, the combination of scale and technology will provide exposure to large and profitable revenue streams, the broker acknowledges.

Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $11.00 from $11.60.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.51 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If IRE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.15, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 47.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.5, implying annual growth of 17.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 50.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.1, implying annual growth of 10.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH  JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

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Overnight Price: $40.01

Macquarie rates JBH as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie envisages potential for JB Hi-Fi to surprise to the upside at the FY20 results. Recent feedback has indicated strong demand for electronics and hardware continued throughout May.

The broker also notes discretionary expenditure has been propped up by the increased earnings of the JobSeeker population as well as indications that funds from early superannuation access went towards discretionary expenditure.

While the effects will wear off in September as the JobKeeper winds up, the pace at which the Australasian economies are reopening has underpinned a more positive view on the outlook.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target raised to $41.00 from $35.60.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $40.01 Difference: $0.99
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.76, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 99.00 cents and EPS of 228.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 234.8, implying annual growth of 8.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 153.00 cents and EPS of 232.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.9, implying annual growth of -8.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX  JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $26.57

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the fibre cement share of the US siding market increased to 21% in 2019, after three years of little growth, and should align with robust primary demand growth in 2020.

The broker envisages meaningful upside if James Hardie can get to its 35% target. Morgan Stanley likes the competitive advantage and structural growth opportunity in the stock along with the reasonable valuation.

Overweight reiterated. Target is $32. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $26.57 Difference: $5.43
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.54, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.72 cents and EPS of 99.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 65.49 cents and EPS of 141.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.5, implying annual growth of 28.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates JHX as Buy (1) -

The US Census Bureau released its 2019 characteristics of new housing dataset and Ord Minnett notes stucco and fibre cement emerged as the popular choice of materials for primary exterior walls.

The broker sees opportunity for James Hardie Industries here in terms of fibre cement taking share from vinyl while competing against Stucco with its EasyTex panel.

The broker expects growth to be 6% above market index for the North American fibre cement division over FY21-22, and then 3% through to FY30.

Buy rating maintained with a target price of $28.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $26.57 Difference: $1.43
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.54, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 101.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 126.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.5, implying annual growth of 28.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNK  LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $4.45

Credit Suisse rates LNK as Outperform (1) -

The business has been negatively affected by the pandemic but Credit Suisse expects revenue should be resilient. There is reduced earnings clarity in FY20-21 but when the rebound occurs the broker expects this will highlight the inherent value in the stock.

Estimates are upgraded by 2-5%, given improved trading conditions in corporate markets. Outperform rating reiterated. Target is raised to $5.90 from $4.60.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $1.45
If LNK meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.97, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.03 cents and EPS of 27.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of -54.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.03 cents and EPS of 29.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of 8.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $29.98

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Hold (3) -

The Fruta del Norte mine in Ecuador has restarted after being shut down due to covid-19 restrictions. The mine is owned by Lundin Gold, in which Newcrest Mining has a 32% stake.

Ord Minnett is waiting for more information on cost, ramp-up and 2020 production and debt covenants.

The broker maintains its Hold rating with a target price of $29.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $29.98 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.07, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 31.26 cents and EPS of 108.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 37.21 cents and EPS of 123.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.1, implying annual growth of 19.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates NCM as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

The Australian dollar gold price has increased by 18% over the year to date driving the ASX gold index 24% higher. However, UBS notes relative performance among stocks has diverged with Newcrest Mining underperforming.

This has created an opportunity to consider rotating into Newcrest and the broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $35 from $33.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $29.98 Difference: $5.02
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.07, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.33 cents and EPS of 130.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.81 cents and EPS of 120.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.1, implying annual growth of 19.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEA  NEARMAP LTD

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $2.21

Macquarie rates NEA as Outperform (1) -

The company's FY20 targets are on track. Revisions have been made to forecasts to capture the sales impact of the pandemic although cash flow break-even is still expected at the end of FY20. Guidance has narrowed, but remains within the original range.

Meanwhile, Macquarie notes sales activity has been solid, albeit still affected by the pandemic. Across existing customers, strong usage metrics continue. Outperform retained. Target is raised to $2.47 from $1.80.

Target price is $2.47 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.26
If NEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 55.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST  NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $14.29

UBS rates NST as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

The Australian dollar gold price has increased by 18% over the year to date driving the ASX gold index 24% higher. However, UBS notes relative performance among stocks has diverged and Northern Star has outperformed, lifting 31%.

As a result, the broker downgrades Northern Star to Sell from Neutral, raising the target to $14.50 from $13.70.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $14.29 Difference: $0.21
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.34, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.5, implying annual growth of 127.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.9, implying annual growth of 87.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN  QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $4.18

UBS rates QAN as Buy (1) -

The administrators of Virgin Australia ((VAH)) have commenced the next stage of the sale process, with a binding agreement expected to be in place by June 30 with Bain Capital and Cyrus Capital Partners.

This increases the likelihood that Qantas will experience competition in the domestic market and reduces the reliance on government funding which UBS suspected could disproportionately hurt Qantas.

While irrational behaviour from the second carrier is possible, Qantas has brought unit costs down since 2014 and can leverage its scale and loyalty program so the broker considers this an unlikely strategy.

Buy rating and $4.65 target maintained. State borders re-opening is considered the main catalyst for an increase in both the leisure and corporate markets.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.47
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of minus 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -17.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCG  SCENTRE GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.43

Ord Minnett rates SCG as Hold (3) -

The decision by Vicinity Centres ((VCX)) to raise capital may complicate matters for Scentre Group, comments Ord Minnett. The broker feels although the group has ample liquidity and will not raise capital anytime soon, gearing will likely soar as more devaluations are booked.

Further, Ord Minnett expects retail book values to correct over the next 12-18 months, prompting the group to sell assets worth -$3bn in 2021 to absorb part of the impact.

The broker reiterates its Hold rating with a target price of $2.10.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of -16.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 21.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $10.34

Credit Suisse rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse's channel checks indicate the luxury wine market in China is not showing any meaningful sign of recovery. Business people appear unprepared to gather and "banquet".

Home consumption is improving but luxury purchases are not being made. Hence, demand for Penfolds is soft and it may take time to absorb the quantities in the market.

The broker suspects Treasury Wine may curtail shipments to China for the first half. If the market takes longer to recover, restructuring and bad debt charges may be necessary, in the broker's view.

Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $9.35 from $10.85.

Target price is $9.35 Current Price is $10.34 Difference: minus $0.99 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.26, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 43.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of -14.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 40.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.0, implying annual growth of 8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Z1P  ZIP CO LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $6.33

UBS rates Z1P as No Rating (-1) -

Zip Co has acquired the 86% of QuadPay that it does not own. UBS notes the deal is complex and up to $200m will be raised via Heights Capital.

The consideration is $403m and up to $60m in additional performance milestones will be payable to the co-founders.

UBS places its Buy rating and $3.70 target on review.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $6.33 Difference: minus $2.63 (current price is over target).
If Z1P meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting downside of -40.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 57.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 316.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ANZ ANZ Banking Group $18.91 Macquarie 18.50 18.50 0.00%
AQG Alacer Gold $8.90 UBS 10.30 9.50 8.42%
ARF Arena Reit $2.50 Macquarie 2.63 2.45 7.35%
BAP Bapcor Limited $6.11 Macquarie 6.70 5.40 24.07%
BHP BHP $36.32 Macquarie 38.00 36.00 5.56%
Morgan Stanley 36.40 36.65 -0.68%
BKW Brickworks $16.01 Macquarie 17.80 16.30 9.20%
CAR Carsales.Com $16.92 UBS 16.00 12.50 28.00%
CIA Champion Iron $2.94 Macquarie 3.20 2.90 10.34%
COH Cochlear $195.21 UBS 160.50 150.00 7.00%
CPU Computershare $13.38 Credit Suisse 13.90 10.75 29.30%
FMG Fortescue $14.68 Macquarie 15.00 13.30 12.78%
HVN Harvey Norman Holdings $3.52 Macquarie 3.80 3.20 18.75%
IRE Iress $11.51 Credit Suisse 11.00 11.60 -5.17%
JBH JB Hi-Fi $40.01 Macquarie 41.00 35.60 15.17%
LNK Link Administration $4.45 Credit Suisse 5.90 4.60 28.26%
MGX Mount Gibson Iron $0.71 Macquarie 1.00 0.90 11.11%
MIN Mineral Resources $19.73 Macquarie 21.70 19.60 10.71%
NCM Newcrest Mining $29.98 UBS 35.00 33.00 6.06%
NEA Nearmap $2.21 Macquarie 2.47 1.80 37.22%
NST Northern Star $14.29 UBS 14.50 13.70 5.84%
OGC Oceanagold $3.10 UBS 4.00 4.05 -1.23%
RIO Rio Tinto $97.37 Macquarie 112.00 104.00 7.69%
RRL Regis Resources $5.09 UBS 6.30 6.00 5.00%
SAR Saracen Mineral $4.82 UBS 5.60 5.35 4.67%
SCG Scentre Group $2.43 Morgan Stanley 2.90 2.20 31.82%
TWE Treasury Wine Estates $10.34 Credit Suisse 9.35 10.85 -13.82%
Summaries
ALL Aristocrat Leisure Buy - Citi Overnight Price $26.91
AMI Aurelia Metals Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.45
ANZ ANZ Banking Group Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $18.91
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $18.91
AQG Alacer Gold Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $8.90
ARF Arena Reit Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.50
BAP Bapcor Limited Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.11
BKW Brickworks Buy - Citi Overnight Price $16.01
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $16.01
CAR Carsales.Com Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $16.92
COH Cochlear Sell - UBS Overnight Price $195.21
CPU Computershare Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $13.38
EVN Evolution Mining Sell - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.86
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.86
IFN Infigen Energy Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.81
IRE Iress Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $11.51
JBH JB Hi-Fi Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $40.01
JHX James Hardie Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $26.57
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $26.57
LNK Link Administration Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.45
NCM Newcrest Mining Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $29.98
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $29.98
NEA Nearmap Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.21
NST Northern Star Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $14.29
QAN Qantas Airways Buy - UBS Overnight Price $4.18
SCG Scentre Group Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.43
TWE Treasury Wine Estates Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $10.34
Z1P Zip Co No Rating - UBS Overnight Price $6.33
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

14

3. Hold

9

5. Sell

4

Wednesday 03 June 2020

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