Australian Broker Call

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October 30, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:09 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BPT - BEACH ENERGY Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Macquarie
IGO - INDEPENDENCE GROUP Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Credit Suisse
PPT - PERPETUAL Upgrade to Neutral from Sell UBS
SCP - SHOPPING CENTRES AUS Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
WTP - WATPAC Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $26.71

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed the company's North American strategy and growth opportunities. Aristocrat is expected to generate net profit growth of more than $202m in new land-based markets by FY21.

The broker raises FY19 estimates by 1.9% and FY20 by 2.9% , to reflect new Oasis systems and services contracts as well as expansion in Oklahoma.

Accumulate rating maintained and the target is raised to $35.00 from $33.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $26.71 Difference: $8.29
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.29, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.3, implying annual growth of 49.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 120.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.6, implying annual growth of 21.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVN  AVENTUS RETAIL PROPERTY FUND

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.01

Macquarie rates AVN as Resume Coverage with Neutral (3) -

Gearing has increased to 39% post the internalisation and Macquarie believes asset sales are a likely solution. The broker also believes the maturing of the retail cap rate cycle will continue to weigh on the stock.

The company's tenant base is exposed to the tune of around 63% to household goods and, while lower than the industry average, the broker notes this has been a key point of contention. Funds management could be a longer dated opportunity, Macquarie suggests.

The 8.1% distributional yield on FY19 estimates should be a stabilising factor, nonetheless, and Macquarie resumes coverage with a Neutral rating and $2.05 target.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.01 Difference: $0.04
If AVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of -33.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of 1.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLD  BORAL LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $5.51

Macquarie rates BLD as Outperform (1) -

The company's trading statement points to disruption from the weather and a greater skew to the second half as a result.

Nevertheless, Macquarie highlights that the stock as de-rated in recent weeks in tandem with US home builders, appearing to ignore the 50% of revenue that is not exposed to either the US or Australian housing markets.

Outperform and $8.05 target retained.

Target price is $8.05 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: $2.54
If BLD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.54, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 47.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.5, implying annual growth of 18.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 54.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.1, implying annual growth of 14.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT  BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $1.76

Macquarie rates BPT as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

The company reported stronger production and sales in the September quarter, offset by hedging losses and weaker pricing. Production is expected to come in at the upper end of FY19 guidance.

Macquarie upgrades to Neutral from Underperform and, at current levels, believes the stock is fair value, despite expecting a beat on production and earnings in FY19. Target is raised to $1.65 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.7, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 20.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of 0.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $14.37

UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -

UBS observes, since the full year result, the share price has fallen -20%. The broker believes the stock is cheap versus global steel peers.

UBS believes the weakness is attributable to declining expectations for US steel spreads and limited earnings upside in FY19, as well as some caution over the company's exposure to Australian housing.

UBS estimates that almost 1-in-2 new roofs in Australia are ColorBond and, with housing activity expected to slow, the share of value-added production will ease, although this is cushioned by ongoing demand from non-dwellings such as warehouses.

The broker believes the downside risk, overall, is small and retains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $21.00 from $21.30.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $14.37 Difference: $6.63
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.65, suggesting upside of 36.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 208.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.4, implying annual growth of 45.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 185.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 174.1, implying annual growth of -19.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $187.41

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Equal-weight (3) -

The broker suggests CSL's near 4% rally yesterday can be attributed to a positive data subset reported from Grifols' IIb/III trials for albumin use in treating Alzheimer's. However limited data availability and a long lead time to any potential commercial outcome leaves the broker sceptical, believing the rally was overdone.

Equal-weight and $189 target retained. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $189.00 Current Price is $187.41 Difference: $1.59
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.58, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 256.54 cents and EPS of 555.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 604.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 273.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 282.41 cents and EPS of 608.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 686.8, implying annual growth of 13.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 310.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR  CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $3.57

Deutsche Bank rates CSR as Hold (3) -

The company reports its first half result on November 2. Deutsche Bank expects building product earnings to decline -3%.

Aluminium earnings are expected to be affected by higher power costs.

Hold rating and $3.80 target maintained.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.23
If CSR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 35.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.7, implying annual growth of -10.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of -7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates CSR as Equal-weight (3) -

The broker has made no changes to its forecasts for CSR ahead of Friday's earnings result, retaining Equal-weight and a $4.75 target. The broker suggests the company should have benefited from robust housing construction in the half, but aluminium input cost headwinds would have blown.

Given an under-geared balance sheet, a buyback announcement is a possibility, the broker believes, but the key will be management's outlook commentary in the face of a housing market downturn. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $1.18
If CSR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 35.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.7, implying annual growth of -10.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of -7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FDV  FRONTIER DIGITAL VENTURES LIMITED

Online media & mobile platforms

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Overnight Price: $0.51

Morgans rates FDV as Add (1) -

Morgans believes the strong operating results in the September quarter RN indication that the business is on track to meet or beat forecasts in 2018. Portfolio cash revenue grew 61% in the quarter.

The broker believes the company has created significant value since investing in its portfolio businesses.

Morgans maintains an Add rating but, as Frontier Digital invests in early stage ventures in high-risk economies, its shares are denoted High Risk. Target is $0.95.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.44
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.00.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 51.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $4.05

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett continues to believe the market is overlooking the rise in iron ore prices achieved by the company. Using Mysteel data the implied price has risen to US$55/t, 22% higher than the average revenue reported in the June quarter and a 37% increase since early July.

The higher iron ore prices appear to be a function of unexpectedly strong Chinese steel production. UBS maintains an Accumulate rating and $5.50 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $1.45
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.64, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.13 cents and EPS of 46.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.80 cents and EPS of 47.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.8, implying annual growth of -2.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH  FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $12.58

UBS rates FPH as Sell (5) -

The share price has fallen -20% over the last two months although the stock still trades on a PE well above global medical device peers, UBS observes. The broker suggests downside risks are being ignored, despite a recent earnings downgrade, particularly because of the potential for a weak US flu season and the pick up in litigation.

The company is also contending with increased competition amid the IPO of Vapotherm. The broker calculates the company's share of high-flow nasal cannula business is likely to fall to 40% from 70% over the next 10 years, which captures any competitive threat from Vapotherm.

UBS reiterates a Sell rating and raises the target to NZ$12.40 from NZ$11.75.

Current Price is $12.58. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.62 cents and EPS of 32.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.6.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 39.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 17.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.9.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO  INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $4.06

Credit Suisse rates IGO as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

September quarter production was in line with expectations. Credit Suisse notes there were no changes to FY19 budgets while a stronger second half for Nova should deliver lower unit costs.

Management has indicated its dividend policy is up for a review with a possible switch to a free cash flow pay-out from the first half of FY19.

The broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform because of weakness in the share price. Target is steady at $3.95.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.96 cents and EPS of 23.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of 167.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.65 cents and EPS of 26.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of 30.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Production at Nova was in line with Macquarie's forecasts, although cash costs were much higher than expected. Tropicana production was in line with estimates and costs were marginally higher.

The company has maintained FY19 production and cost guidance. Management has further indicated that the strong cash being generated could mean a change in dividend policy and boost returns to shareholders.

Macquarie lifts its pay-out ratio in anticipation. Target edges down 2% to $4.20. Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: $0.14
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of 167.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 30.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of 30.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KGN  KOGAN.COM LTD

Retailing

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Overnight Price: $3.17

UBS rates KGN as Buy (1) -

UBS was disappointed with the FY19 update as revenue growth has slowed to around 12% in the first quarter. The avoidance of GST by a number of foreign websites has affected the company's competitiveness. Gross margin was down in the quarter because of price investment.

The extent of the slowdown in the September quarter surprised UBS, particularly as there was little evidence the changes to the GST threshold had a material impact on July trading.

The broker assumes softer conditions continue for the remainder of the financial year and this has driven downgrades of -29-36% to earnings-per-share forecasts. Nevertheless, the broker believes the market is being overly pessimistic about the core website business.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.50 from $8.65.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $3.17 Difference: $2.33
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.81.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.78.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR  MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $2.22

Ord Minnett rates MGR as Accumulate (2) -

Mirvac has showcased its office portfolio, which comprises 50% of total assets. This will grow towards 60% over the next three years upon delivery of the $3bn in active development.

Ord Minnett notes the retail portfolio has outperformed significantly, delivering average specialty sales growth of 5% over the past 3.5 years. Accumulate maintained. Target is $2.60.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.38
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of -43.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 8.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $20.78

Deutsche Bank rates NCM as Buy (1) -

After visiting the Cadia mine Deutsche Bank has formed the view that, despite the seismic event and dam failure, the mine has such a long life (50 years) that problems are able to be solved and the highest value outcomes can be obtained.

Buy rating and $23 target maintained.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.78 Difference: $2.22
If NCM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.19, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.5, implying annual growth of 26.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NVT  NAVITAS LIMITED

Education & Tuition

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Overnight Price: $5.03

Citi rates NVT as Neutral (3) -

Navitas has rejected the takeover offer from Rodney Jones and the BGH consortium, believing the $5.50 offer does not reflect the value implied in management's strategy.

However, the board has indicated a willingness to engage with potential interest to determine whether a superior offer could be forthcoming.

Despite a potential return to growth in FY19 and limited risk for contract renewals, Citi is concerned about the lack of visibility around enrolment growth.

The broker considers there is a fair degree of risk in predicting an actual turnaround. Neutral rating and $5.30 target maintained.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $0.27
If NVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.78, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 22.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.10 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT  PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $34.17

UBS rates PPT as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

The shares are down -31% in the year to date and UBS believes the downside is now limited, upgrading to Neutral from Sell.

The Corporate Trust and Perpetual Private divisions are on track and represent 58% of operating earnings versus 38% five years ago, as the company has diversified away from its stagnant Perpetual Investment earnings.

While net outflows will continue to affect the latter, the broker expects earnings elsewhere to grow by around 5% per annum.

As a result, UBS believes the stock offers fair value and the cash on the balance sheet provides strategic options. Target is reduced to $33.50 from $41.50.

Target price is $33.50 Current Price is $34.17 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $40.54, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 239.00 cents and EPS of 261.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 288.6, implying annual growth of -5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 260.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 225.00 cents and EPS of 250.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 299.3, implying annual growth of 3.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 265.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRU  PERSEUS MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $0.37

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

The company has updated resources and reserves for Sissingue and provided a new life-of-mine plan. Resources are down -27% because of increased costs and changes tomethodology while reserves increase 5%, ex depletion.

While an expanded production profile is encouraging increasing costs offset this to some extent, in Macquarie's view. Operating cash flows remain key and the company still expects to fund Yaoure by debt and cash flow.

Outperform rating and $0.50 target maintained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.13
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.57, suggesting upside of 53.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of -19.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC  RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $55.82

Citi rates RHC as Buy (1) -

The company incorporates the acquisition of Capio into forecasts. This results in slight upgrades to earnings estimates. All conditions for the acquisition have been met and the company will begin to consolidate the results for Capio after November 7, 2018.

Citi notes Ramsay Health Care continues to diversify exposure away from Australia, where challenges exist, and the Capio countries represent an appealing segment of the acquisition with earnings growth of over 10%.

Nevertheless, in the long-term Citi remains positive about the Australian private hospital sector as about 55% of all procedures are conducted in the private system and governments cannot afford for this to become materially lower.

Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $64 from $62.

Target price is $64.00 Current Price is $55.82 Difference: $8.18
If RHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.50, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 152.00 cents and EPS of 283.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.5, implying annual growth of 1.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 147.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 310.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 306.6, implying annual growth of 8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Equal-weight (3) -

Ramsay has reported its takeover offer for Capio, via 51% owned Ramsay Generale de Sante, has received 96% acceptance. The offer has thus been briefly extended.

The broker believes earnings accretion from the acquisition could come earlier than previously expected, with synergies to follow. In the meantime however, the broker remains cautious over the Australian private health insurance environment and regulatory risk. Equal-weight and $56 target retained.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $55.82 Difference: $0.18
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.50, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 153.00 cents and EPS of 283.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.5, implying annual growth of 1.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 147.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 164.00 cents and EPS of 305.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 306.6, implying annual growth of 8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates RHC as Hold (3) -

Capio shareholders have approved the  takeover offer from Ramsay Health Care's French subsidiary. French regulators have also approved the takeover and the deal is expected to settle on November 7.

The acquisition will expand the company's footprint but is considered to be neutral for earnings in the near term.

Morgans believes the different attributes of the Capio business, along with the complex integration, increase the challenges and risks.

Hold rating maintained. Target is raised to $58.28 from $55.55.

Target price is $58.28 Current Price is $55.82 Difference: $2.46
If RHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.50, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 281.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.5, implying annual growth of 1.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 147.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 311.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 306.6, implying annual growth of 8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates RHC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has revised forecasts to include the acquisition of Swedish healthcare group Capio. The broker believes Capio is a significant new challenge but envisages possible upside to synergy estimates.

Still, the broker is wary of the challenging environment, particularly in Australia. Downside risk to forecasts exist if, as seems likely, the ALP wins the next federal election and implements its capped premium policy.

Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $58.50 from $55.00.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $58.50 Current Price is $55.82 Difference: $2.68
If RHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.50, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 146.00 cents and EPS of 287.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.5, implying annual growth of 1.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 147.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 305.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 306.6, implying annual growth of 8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

The offer for Capio has now been accepted and settlement is expected on November 7, 2018. UBS estimates core earnings accretion of around 3.5% in FY22 which also assumes full synergies are captured, worth EUR20m over a two-three-year period.

The broker believes Capio's Nordic business offers digital capabilities that enhance delivery of both specialist and primary care, which could be leveraged over time in other geographies.

UBS maintains a Neutral rating and $54 target.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $55.82 Difference: minus $1.82 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $58.50, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 147.00 cents and EPS of 291.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.5, implying annual growth of 1.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 147.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 307.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 306.6, implying annual growth of 8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC  RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $4.75

Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

The company has not altered assumptions behind its FY19 forecasts for operating earnings (EBITDA) of $280-290m. Macquarie continues to like the investment case and believes the recent sell-off is an opportunity to gain exposure to a high quality business.

The broker envisages significant growth potential in the medium to longer term and maintains an Outperform rating. Target edges down to $6.40 from $6.50.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $1.65
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.85, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 23.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of 80.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 26.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.8, implying annual growth of 16.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCP  SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.58

Ord Minnett rates SCP as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

The stock has re-rated, Ord Minnett believes, because of its superior operating results compared with other retail portfolios, as well as relatively predictable earnings growth.

Pricing on the assets acquired from Vicinity Centres ((VCX)) was also favourable. The broker continues to believe the portfolio is well-positioned with an attractive return on capital and relatively low risk.

As the stock is trading in line with the target, steady at $2.70, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $0.12
If SCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of -30.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 2.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXY  SENEX ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $0.38

Ord Minnett rates SXY as Hold (3) -

The company has announced final investment decisions for growth projects in the Surat Basin. Combined with successful financial close of a $150m debt facility this clears the way, Ord Minnett believes, for total production to ramp up to 4mmboe per annum.

Management has also updated FY19 guidance for total production of 1.1-1.5mmboe and capital expenditure of $110-130m, of which $85-105m will be for Surat Basin growth.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.43 from $0.47 to reflect increased capital expenditure.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.05
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.50, suggesting upside of 30.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.4, implying annual growth of 112.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VEA  VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $2.16

Deutsche Bank rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Refining in September was firm, returning to full production early in the month, but Deutsche Bank was disappointed with the margins.

The Geelong refining margin was US$8.10/bbl, significantly below the US$11.10 achieved in August.

Buy rating and $2.65 price target.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.49
If VEA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.75, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 17.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

The refining business in September was in line with UBS estimates, although below the rate required to hit prospectus forecasts. Still, the broker suggests this is reflected in the current share price.

UBS maintains current estimates, but highlights the risk to the prospectus forecasts if cost reductions are not maintained and weaker fuel volumes continue to come from Coles ((WES)). Buy rating and $2.85 target maintained. 

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.69
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.75, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 17.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VHT  VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $1.30

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

Morgans observes another solid quarter for Volpara and, importantly, guidance of NZ$9m has been reconfirmed for FY19, which represents 9% of the women screened in the US.

Sales in Japan are gaining traction and the company is looking to sign up an original equipment manufacturer. The broker expects the update from the USFDA on mandatory regulations for breast cancer screening is likely to be a catalyst.

Morgans maintains an Add rating and raises the target to $1.61 from $1.17.

Target price is $1.61 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.31
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 28.68.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.61.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WTP  WATPAC LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $0.92

Morgans rates WTP as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Watpac has received an off-market takeover bid from BESIX, which currently has a 28.1% stake. The board has unanimously recommended the offer and it has been deemed fair and reasonable by an independent expert.

Morgans had suggested previously that an earnings-led recovery in the share price would take time and, therefore, believes shareholders should accept the offer. A superior offer, while possible, is considered unlikely.

The broker downgrades to Hold from Add. The target is raised to $0.92 a share, in line with the offer price, from $0.86.

Target price is $0.92 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0
If WTP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.00.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.60.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ALL ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Ord Minnett 35.00 33.50 4.48%
AVN AVENTUS RETAIL PROPERTY Macquarie 2.05 N/A -
BPT BEACH ENERGY Macquarie 1.65 1.60 3.12%
CSR CSR Deutsche Bank 3.80 4.88 -22.13%
IGO INDEPENDENCE GROUP Macquarie 4.20 4.30 -2.33%
KGN KOGAN.COM UBS 5.50 8.65 -36.42%
NVT NAVITAS Citi 5.30 4.60 15.22%
PPT PERPETUAL UBS 33.50 41.50 -19.28%
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE Citi 64.00 62.00 3.23%
Morgans 58.28 55.55 4.91%
Ord Minnett 58.50 55.50 5.41%
RWC RELIANCE WORLDWIDE Macquarie 6.40 6.50 -1.54%
SXY SENEX ENERGY Ord Minnett 0.43 0.47 -8.51%
VHT VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES Morgans 1.61 1.17 37.61%
WTP WATPAC Morgans 0.92 0.86 6.98%
Summaries
ALL ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $26.71
AVN AVENTUS RETAIL PROPERTY Resume Coverage with Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.01
BLD BORAL Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.51
BPT BEACH ENERGY Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.76
BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL Buy - UBS Overnight Price $14.37
CSL CSL Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $187.41
CSR CSR Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.57
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.57
FDV FRONTIER DIGITAL VENTURES Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.51
FMG FORTESCUE Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.05
FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE Sell - UBS Overnight Price $12.58
IGO INDEPENDENCE GROUP Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.06
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.06
KGN KOGAN.COM Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.17
MGR MIRVAC Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.22
NCM NEWCREST MINING Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $20.78
NVT NAVITAS Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $5.03
PPT PERPETUAL Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS Overnight Price $34.17
PRU PERSEUS MINING Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.37
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE Buy - Citi Overnight Price $55.82
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $55.82
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $55.82
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $55.82
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $55.82
RWC RELIANCE WORLDWIDE Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.75
SCP SHOPPING CENTRES AUS Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.58
SXY SENEX ENERGY Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.38
VEA VIVA ENERGY GROUP Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $2.16
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.16
VHT VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.30
WTP WATPAC Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.92
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

11

2. Accumulate

3

3. Hold

16

5. Sell

1

Tuesday 30 October 2018

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