Australian Broker Call

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August 14, 2019

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
MFG - MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP Downgrade to Sell from Neutral Citi
Downgrade to Sell from Hold Ord Minnett
RIO - RIO TINTO Upgrade to Buy from Hold Ord Minnett
AFG  AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD

Banks

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Overnight Price: $2.10

Macquarie rates AFG as Outperform (1) -

Preliminary FY19 results were ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The company will acquire Connective for $120m but has not quantified any revenue synergies.

Macquarie calculates Connective would hold 38% market share but does not incorporate any Connective earnings impact at this point.

The broker will review forecast when the official FY19 result is released on August 23 but envisages potential upside risk to forecasts. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $2.64 from $1.43.

Target price is $2.64 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.54
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.73.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 14.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.38.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF  ARENA REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.81

Macquarie rates ARF as Neutral (3) -

FY19 earnings are in line with expectations. FY20 distribution guidance of 14.3c per security was reaffirmed.

Macquarie considers the child care subsidy has largely been captured in the results and the company will benefit from moderating supply and a continued shift in structural demand.

The company continues to pursue opportunities outside of early learning centres, where the financial returns are similar. Valuation remains the hurdle and the broker retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $2.78 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.78 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.51.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.40 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.12.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $12.88

Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -

Despite concerns over slowing global growth and escalating trade war tensions, Citi believes stimulus measures should help boost sentiment. For the near term, underlying steel margins have improved.

At the upcoming results, the broker now believes that earnings guidance for the first half of FY20 will trigger consensus upgrades. A Buy rating is reiterated and the target lifted to $15 from $14. BlueScope will report its results on August 19.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.88 Difference: $2.12
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.89, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 173.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 178.6, implying annual growth of 20.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.2, implying annual growth of -42.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse expects BlueScope Steel will meet consensus when it reports, the only wildcards being the dividend (broker tips 8c) and cash (broker tips top end of range, leaving room for capital management), and news on North Star funding.

The broker notes the first-half outlook is on the up, with US and Australian steel markets improving, although scrap price pressures remain.

Target price steady at $15. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.88 Difference: $2.12
If BSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.89, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 177.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 178.6, implying annual growth of 20.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 101.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.2, implying annual growth of -42.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF  CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $6.98

Credit Suisse rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

Challenger's full-year result met the broker but proved a mixed bag, with Life in line and a -3% miss in Funds management largely being offset by lower than expected corporate costs.

A stabilisation in the Life cash operating earnings margin was viewed favourably, but sales remain slow albeit with a favourable mix.

EPS forecasts fall -0.2% in FY20 and -3.2% in FY21 reflecting a forecast fall in Funds Management and Life earnings.

The dividend forecast jumps 12.7% after the flat FY19 dividend. Neutral rating retained and target price lowered to $7.20 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: $0.22
If CGF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CGF as Outperform (1) -

FY19 result were broadly in line with Macquarie's expectations. FY20 guidance for net profit of $500-550m is unchanged.

Macquarie recognises the challenges of low interest rates but believes offsets are coming through on the funding side and margin pressures will be less significant going forward.

Industry disruption will cause domestic sales to remain soft in the near future, in the broker's view, while net book growth will still benefit from an increase in Japanese sales volumes in FY20.

Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $8.40 from $8.80.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: $1.42
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 53.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.50 cents and EPS of 56.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -

FY19 results were in line with estimates and guidance is unchanged. Morgan Stanley was surprised at the increasing capital intensity in the second half, stemming from reinvestment into non-investment-grade fixed income.

The broker believes the sales outlook is subdued with a multi-year disruption ahead in the advice industry. Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is raised to $6.95 from $6.85. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates CGF as Hold (3) -

FY19 net profit was below expectations and at the bottom of the target range of $545-565m, Morgans notes. Overall, the broker considers the result underpins confidence that the earnings profile has largely been re-based.

However deteriorating sales momentum in Australia on adviser disruption impacts is likely to be apparent. Morgans maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $7.31 from $7.37.

Target price is $7.31 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: $0.33
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 54.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 36.40 cents and EPS of 56.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CGF as Lighten (4) -

FY19 net profit was slightly below Ord Minnett's forecasts. The life business shows an increase in cash operating earnings margins in the second half, a reversal of declines that have been occurring since 2011.

The broker believes the mid point of pre-tax profit guidance for FY20 of $500-550m can be achieved. Ord Minnett's main concern is whether there is an appropriate risk-adjusted return to shareholders. Lighten maintained. Target is $6.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

FY19 normalised pre-tax profit was in line with UBS estimates. Recent FY20 guidance is unchanged. UBS believes lower bond yields into FY20 will place further pressure on domestic annuity demand, the key swing factor for the outlook.

The broker suspects Challenger could fall short of re-based pre-tax return targets, with estimates implying 14.2% in FY20. Neutral rating and $6.95 target maintained.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU  COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $15.10

Citi rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

At face value, Citi analysts believe FY19 financial performance is minimally better-than-expected/guided, while guidance for -5% contraction in FY20 appears to be a disappointment. However, this guidance appears to be heavily impacted by changes in accounting.

Underlying, the analysts believe, FY20 guidance is merely in-line with expectations. Also, management is anticipating flat margins for the year ahead. Equally important, guidance for FY20 does not include any impact from share buyback.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.10 Difference: $1.9
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.29, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 42.82 cents and EPS of 99.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 44.81 cents and EPS of 101.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of -1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CPU as Hold (3) -

It appears, on initial analysis, FY19 financials released today mostly missed Ord Minnett forecasts, albeit by a very thin margin only. Of more importance is the fact that management has guided towards negative growth of -5% for the year ahead, with accountancy the key factor in this negative guidance.

However, Ord Minnett believes management's guidance for flat margins, which underpins the FY20 outlook, looks rather "optimistic". The broker als retains a few question marks about the outlook for FY21.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $16.25 Current Price is $15.10 Difference: $1.15
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.29, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 44.34 cents and EPS of 96.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 45.09 cents and EPS of 94.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of -1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $234.00

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -

On initial assessment, Ord Minnett suggests CSL released yet another strong result, but it was in-line with expectations. Management's guidance for FY20, however, appears to be better than what the market, and Ord Minnett, had been expecting.

FY19 financials include lower than expected operational earnings and higher operational costs, as well as a lower impact from FX and a lower tax rate in H2. The broker had expected a higher dividend.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $234.00 Difference: minus $24 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $213.40, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 274.76 cents and EPS of 597.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 618.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 280.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 328.31 cents and EPS of 679.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 650.5, implying annual growth of 5.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 302.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS  DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $13.21

Citi rates DXS as Buy (1) -

Upon initial assessment, Citi analysts find today's FY19 release was strong, but in-line with recently provided guidance. They note Office trends remain extremely strong, with Sydney a true stand-out.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $13.21 Difference: $0.89
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.80, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.20 cents and EPS of 66.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of -61.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 68.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.3, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $5.15

Credit Suisse rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse expects Evolution Mining will report roughly in line with consensus, with the dividend and net profit being the only wildcards.

The broker pegs dividend risk to the upside, given the company's cash surplus. Target price steady at $2.60. Underperform rating.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: minus $2.55 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting downside of -27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 11.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of -13.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.1.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.34 cents and EPS of 16.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.4, implying annual growth of 58.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG  MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $55.79

Citi rates MFG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

FY19 results were broadly in line with expectations. Citi finds the risk/reward less compelling now as the stock is trading well above peers, performance fees are lumpy and the medium-term growth prospects are some time away.

Rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral. The broker believes the company has taken an innovative approach to funds management, offering eligible investors 7.5% loyalty units if they subscribe to the new high conviction trust IPO. Target is steady at $54.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $55.79 Difference: minus $1.79 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $49.03, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 191.40 cents and EPS of 211.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.7, implying annual growth of 1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 201.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 211.80 cents and EPS of 234.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.8, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 219.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates MFG as Underperform (5) -

Magellan Financial Group's full-year result beat consensus by 3%, thanks to other income, performance fees and lower employee expenses.

The result shared the news space with the launch of Magellan's High Conviction Trust. The broker expects the trust will pull $2bn in inflows in FY20, yielding a one-off unit cost to Magellan of $150m, which will be funded by a $275m institutional placement.

Credit Suisse upgrades outer earnings by 10% and raises the target price to $49.30 from $42.90. Underperform rating retained.

Target price is $49.30 Current Price is $55.79 Difference: minus $6.49 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $49.03, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 210.00 cents and EPS of 235.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.7, implying annual growth of 1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 201.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 230.00 cents and EPS of 267.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.8, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 219.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates MFG as No Rating (-1) -

FY19 net profit was ahead of Macquarie's estimates while management and performance fees were broadly in line.

The company has announced a $275m share placement to fund future growth initiatives, with most of the proceeds to be directed towards the launch of a closed-end high conviction trust and support a new retirement income product.

Macquarie is currently on research restrictions and cannot provide a rating or target at present. FY20 funds management expenses are expected to be $115-120m.

Current Price is $55.79. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $49.03, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 209.00 cents and EPS of 229.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.7, implying annual growth of 1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 201.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 219.00 cents and EPS of 241.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.8, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 219.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -

Second half profit was ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates but increasing capital intensity and potential dilution to earnings per share from the capital raising are expected to weigh on the share price.

Morgan Stanley welcomes the news the company is building a direct-to-consumer platform and developing new strategies including retirement income.

The broker assesses this capitalises on the vacuum left in the retail wealth segment, given the exit of the banks, and provides an alternative to the growing strength of industry super funds.

Morgan Stanley lifts FY20 estimates for net profit by 4% and raises the target to $38.50 from $38.00. Underweight maintained. Industry view is: In-Line.

Target price is $38.50 Current Price is $55.79 Difference: minus $17.29 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $49.03, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 189.00 cents and EPS of 211.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.7, implying annual growth of 1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 201.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 203.20 cents and EPS of 226.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.8, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 219.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates MFG as Hold (3) -

FY19 results were in line with expectations. The company has launched an underwritten $275m institutional placement to support growth initiatives.

Morgans suggests the company's initiatives can deliver significant medium-term growth in funds under management.

However, the stock is susceptible to short-term market volatility, in the broker's view. Hold maintained. Target is raised to $57.80 from $49.22.

Target price is $57.80 Current Price is $55.79 Difference: $2.01
If MFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.03, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 204.00 cents and EPS of 220.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.7, implying annual growth of 1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 201.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 228.00 cents and EPS of 246.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.8, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 219.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates MFG as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Ord Minnett downgrades to Sell from Hold on valuation grounds. While supporting the strategy to continue investing in listed structures through manager-funded priority offers, the broker considers this simply an incremental driver of growth.

The company has raised capital to further invest in listed products, which tend to come with loyalty bonuses funded by the manager.

While supportive of the building of direct-to-consumer relationships and retirement products, Ord Minnett believes the market is paying up for success. Target is raised to $49.60 from $40.33.

Target price is $49.60 Current Price is $55.79 Difference: minus $6.19 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $49.03, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 214.50 cents and EPS of 211.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.7, implying annual growth of 1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 201.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 234.70 cents and EPS of 245.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.8, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 219.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates MFG as Sell (5) -

FY19 net profit was well ahead of UBS estimates which purely reflected one-off unrealised asset gains. Otherwise, funds management profit was in line. Of more interest to the broker was the $270m equity raising announcement to fund future growth initiatives.

While deploying capital to fund investor discounts for closed-end funds makes strategic sense, the increasing capital intensity of flows is an indication to the broker the company is entering a more mature growth phase.

Partnership costs are becoming more of a recurring feature and, hence, the broker envisages downside risks to value. Sell rating maintained. Target rises to $45.00 from $43.35.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $55.79 Difference: minus $10.79 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $49.03, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 194.00 cents and EPS of 191.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.7, implying annual growth of 1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 201.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 212.00 cents and EPS of 233.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.8, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 219.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYX  MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $0.48

UBS rates MYX as Neutral (3) -

Based on competitor results in the second quarter, UBS notes US generics appear to be suffering from the same pressures that affected FY18.

The issues have not worsened, the broker adds, and the impact on each manufacturer appears to be variable but, in terms of Mayne Pharma, a lack of new product approvals and competitive pressure for certain products such as dofetilide are likely to result in material contraction in gross profit.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $0.53 target. The company is due to report results on August 23.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.05
If MYX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.56, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.1, implying annual growth of 61.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $27.55

Citi rates NAB as Buy (1) -

On initial appraisal, Citi analysts applaud the fact NAB released a "clean" market update, which also proved to be slightly better-than-expected. The analysts point out this comes hot on the heels of a favourable ASIC court conclusion yesterday.

Even without the DRP, the CET1 is still better than the 10.3% penciled in by the analysts. They anticipate a positive response from Mr Market today.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $27.55 Difference: $1.95
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.99, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 198.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.8, implying annual growth of -4.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 166.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 213.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 218.2, implying annual growth of 5.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 166.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $36.60

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse notes variance risks ahead of Newcrest Mining's result include exploration expenses, net finance charges and non-operating charges for foreign exchange and fair value gains and losses.

No impairments are expected and the broker pegs dividend risk to the upside. Target price steady at $20.30 and Underperform rating retained.

Target price is $20.30 Current Price is $36.60 Difference: minus $16.3 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.58, suggesting downside of -30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.70 cents and EPS of 107.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 33.82 cents and EPS of 132.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 144.9, implying annual growth of 30.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEC  NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $1.90

Macquarie rates NEC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes, despite weaker advertising markets, Nine Entertainment is well-placed heading to FY20 amid the capture of merger synergies.

The broker pulls back expectations for TV and radio earnings to reflect the weaker advertising markets. FY19 and FY20 estimates for earnings per share are reduced by -0.9% and -3.4% respectively.

Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $2.15 from $2.00. The company will report its results on August 22.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.25
If NEC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.90 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of -43.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 1.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OFX  OFX GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $1.49

Macquarie rates OFX as Neutral (3) -

The first quarter trading update revealed corporate strength which was offset by weak consumer business, Macquarie observes.

Nevertheless, the broker notes strong broad-based activity in the month of July has returned FY20 income to growth, despite the first quarter being down -3.4%.

Macquarie reduces FY20 and FY21 estimates for earnings per share by -2.8% and -2.9% respectively.

Target is reduced to $1.47 from $1.76, reflecting the combination of reduced EPS estimates and a lower earnings (EBIT) multiple. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $1.47 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If OFX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.61.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.17.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA  REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate

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Overnight Price: $105.08

Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley asserts the best time to buy REA Group is during periods of cyclical weakness. The broker's analysis concludes that 5-8 months after a rise in auction clearance rates, which has been evident since May, there will be a recovery in listings.

This should be followed by a meaningful rise in expectations for earnings per share. The broker maintains an Overweight rating and Attractive industry view. Target is raised to $110 from $90.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $105.08 Difference: $4.92
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $98.51, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 131.70 cents and EPS of 257.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 273.0, implying annual growth of 242.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 156.30 cents and EPS of 305.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 307.2, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $87.98

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Following a significant market sell-off, Ord Minnett trims near-term iron ore and metallurgical coal price forecasts by -5%. The broker suggests a trading opportunity has opened up, given the aggressive -20% sell-off in Rio Tinto, versus BHP Group ((BHP)) at -12%.

Further Chinese policy support is considered likely, despite the uncertainty around trade tensions and the steel production outlook. The broker upgrades Rio Tinto to Buy from Hold. Target is reduced to $105 from $106.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $87.98 Difference: $17.02
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $101.59, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 1031.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1050.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 689.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 975.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 988.1, implying annual growth of -6.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 579.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM  ST BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.67

Credit Suisse rates SBM as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse previews St Barbara Mining, and assesses the main wildcard in the result will be guidance for the recently acquired Atlantic.

Growth is emerging, spot gold prices are favourable and target price is steady at $2.76.

Underperform rating retained, despite the miner trading below spot net present value, given the company doesn't yet meet the broker's price-deck based valuation.

Target price is $2.76 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 28.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of -34.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 21.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SZL  SEZZLE INC

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $2.42

Ord Minnett rates SZL as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Sezzle with a Buy rating and $3 target. The company occupies the "buy now, pay later" segment in North America.

The broker notes strong product market fit is evidenced by exceptional growth rates and increasing repeat customer usage.

The recently oversubscribed IPO has positioned the business well to grow its underlying merchant sales as well as gain access to large retailers, in the broker's view.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.58
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.42.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.63.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC  WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks

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Overnight Price: $28.42

Ord Minnett rates WBC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes Westpac Banking Corp has been delivered what appears to be an emphatic win by the Federal Court in the responsible lending case brought by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. ASIC's application has been dismissed.

Potentially, the broker suggests this may remove some tail risk from the mortgage market, with a reduced likelihood of successful class actions or other litigation.

However, the broker notes this is only one judge's view and responsible lending rules are likely to evolve.

Westpac has long argued that the responsible lending rules do not require the bank to guarantee a borrower maintains their current standard of living and the judgement appears to support this view. Hold rating and $28.50 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $28.42 Difference: $0.08
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.53, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 204.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.6, implying annual growth of -13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 224.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 224.5, implying annual growth of 9.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 184.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSA  WESTERN AREAS NL

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $2.43

Credit Suisse rates WSA as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse expects few surprises from the Western Areas result, and is positioned at the midpoint of consensus.

A cash surplus allows a token dividend. Target price steady at $2.45 and Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $0.02
If WSA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 5.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of 33.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 14.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of 106.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AFG AUSTRALIAN FINANCE Macquarie 2.64 1.43 84.62%
ARF ARENA REIT Macquarie 2.78 2.80 -0.71%
BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL Citi 15.00 14.00 7.14%
CGF CHALLENGER Credit Suisse 7.20 7.50 -4.00%
Macquarie 8.40 8.80 -4.55%
Morgan Stanley 6.95 6.85 1.46%
Morgans 7.31 7.37 -0.81%
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP Credit Suisse 49.30 42.90 14.92%
Macquarie N/A 45.00 -100.00%
Morgan Stanley 38.50 38.00 1.32%
Morgans 57.80 49.22 17.43%
Ord Minnett 49.60 40.33 22.99%
UBS 45.00 43.35 3.81%
NEC NINE ENTERTAINMENT Macquarie 2.15 2.00 7.50%
OFX OFX GROUP Macquarie 1.47 1.76 -16.48%
REA REA GROUP Morgan Stanley 110.00 90.00 22.22%
RIO RIO TINTO Ord Minnett 105.00 106.00 -0.94%
Summaries
AFG AUSTRALIAN FINANCE Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.10
ARF ARENA REIT Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.81
BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL Buy - Citi Overnight Price $12.88
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $12.88
CGF CHALLENGER Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $6.98
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.98
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.98
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $6.98
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.98
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $6.98
CPU COMPUTERSHARE Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $15.10
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $15.10
CSL CSL Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $234.00
DXS DEXUS PROPERTY Buy - Citi Overnight Price $13.21
EVN EVOLUTION MINING Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.15
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $55.79
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $55.79
No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $55.79
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $55.79
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $55.79
Downgrade to Sell from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $55.79
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $55.79
MYX MAYNE PHARMA GROUP Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $0.48
NAB NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK Buy - Citi Overnight Price $27.55
NCM NEWCREST MINING Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $36.60
NEC NINE ENTERTAINMENT Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.90
OFX OFX GROUP Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.49
REA REA GROUP Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $105.08
RIO RIO TINTO Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $87.98
SBM ST BARBARA Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.67
SZL SEZZLE INC Initiation of coverage with Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.42
WBC WESTPAC BANKING Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $28.42
WSA WESTERN AREAS Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.43
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

10

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

12

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

8

Wednesday 14 August 2019

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.