Australian Broker Call

August 03, 2017

Access Broker Call Report Archives here

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on symbol for fast access.

The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

Last Updated: 03:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
MTR - MANTRA GROUP Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
RMD - RESMED Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
SAR - SARACEN MINERAL Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
SHV - SELECT HARVESTS Downgrade to Reduce from Hold Morgans
TME - TRADE ME GROUP Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Macquarie
ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

Overnight Price: $20.76

Deutsche Bank rates ALL as Buy (1) -

North American peer IGT has posted an earnings result that surprised to the upside, but gaming revenues declined. The broker believes Aristocrat is continuing to gain market share.

Buy and $27.40 target retained.

Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $20.76 Difference: $6.64
If ALL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.43, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.3, implying annual growth of 54.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 111.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.3, implying annual growth of 17.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALQ  ALS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

Overnight Price: $7.60

Deutsche Bank rates ALQ as Hold (3) -

The June Q earnings result from US peer Foraco suggests to the broker the recovery in minerals testing continues, which is a positive for ALS, albeit the pace of recovery remains static.

Hold and $7.73 target retained.

Target price is $7.73 Current Price is $7.60 Difference: $0.13
If ALQ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of 77.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.2, implying annual growth of 22.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

API  AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES

Health & Nutrition

Overnight Price: $1.76

Credit Suisse rates API as Underperform (5) -

The company has downgraded FY17 net profit growth to around 5% from prior guidance of at least 10%.The downgrade is from a further deterioration in consumer sentiment despite the company maintaining retail market share.

Credit Suisse lowers revenue growth and margin assumptions for the retail division. Target is reduced to $1.75 from $1.90. Underperform retained.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If API meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.69 cents and EPS of 10.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of 5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 11.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.1, implying annual growth of 8.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQG  ALACER GOLD CORP

Gold & Silver

Overnight Price: $2.17

Credit Suisse rates AQG as Outperform (1) -

June quarter production was in line with guidance. Credit Suisse observes the sulphide project is on schedule and coming in under budget.

Outperform and $5.30 target retained.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $3.13
If AQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 144% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 80.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 61.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.95 cents and EPS of 39.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -59.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates AQG as Buy (1) -

Copler production fell short of the broker's estimate in the June Q but 2017 guidance has been maintained on an expected pick-up in the second half. The Copler sulphide project is the major driver, and here the capex budget is being reduced by courtesy of the Turkish lira exchange rate.

Alacer is fully funded to deliver first gold in the second half of 2018 and the broker sees excellent value. Buy retained. Target falls to $4.10 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $1.93
If AQG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 80.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 55.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -59.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AQG as Outperform (1) -

June quarter production was weaker than Macquarie expected. Full year guidance is unchanged and the company is observed to be making good progress on the sulphide project.

The sulphide project is now 48% complete and on track for first gold in the third quarter of 2018. The broker observes the company is in a stronger funding position than previously forecast and appears set to realise further savings.

Outperform. Target is $2.80.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.63
If AQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 80.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 58.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 182.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -59.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AQG as Buy (1) -

June quarter results were in line with UBS. Construction of the sulphide project is on time and capital expenditure has been trimmed.

Nevertheless, with around 12 months to first gold and nameplate production not expected until 2019, the broker suggests investors are in little hurry to re-price the stock.

There is also considerable choice domestically and other gold exposures have a greater leverage to gold price movements. Buy. Target is $4.30.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $2.13
If AQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 98% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 80.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.6.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -59.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BDR  BEADELL RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

Overnight Price: $0.20

UBS rates BDR as Neutral (3) -

June quarter production disappointed. UBS believes, with investors having significant choice locally, the company will need to do more to reduce production variability to offer the value that can offset the currency risk.

The broker considers the risk profile is skewed to the downside as a significant lift in grades is needed to underpin 2017 production guidance. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $0.21 from $0.23.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.015
If BDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.24, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of -100.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLD  BORAL LIMITED

Building Products & Services

Overnight Price: $6.81

Deutsche Bank rates BLD as Buy (1) -

US-based Heidelberg Cement has reported its June Q result, noting strong pricing and volumes in Australian concrete and aggregates. Boral's acquisition of Headwaters reduces the impact of Australian earnings but the broker believes strong east cast demand will remain a driver through FY17 and beyond.

Buy and $7.96 target retained.

Target price is $7.96 Current Price is $6.81 Difference: $1.15
If BLD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.07, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of -8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 13.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BWP  BWP TRUST

REITs

Overnight Price: $2.90

Citi rates BWP as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts comment FY17 performance met their expectations, but FY18 guidance was cautious, reflecting ongoing leasing headwinds. Given increased uncertainty, the analysts view current valuation as "generous".

Target price has appreciated to $2.65 from $2.62. Sell rating retained as the analysts also believe investor sentiment now represents an additional headwind.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.60 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates BWP as Underweight (5) -

FY17 results were in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. FY18 guidance is supported by capital profits and highlight for the broker how the investment proposition is moving up the risk curve.

Underweight rating, Cautious industry view and $2.60 target retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.10 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates BWP as Hold (3) -

FY17 earnings per share of 17.51c was up 4.3%, in line with expectations. While management would not be drawn on the extent to which underlying earnings are expected to decline over the next 12 months, Ord Minnett estimates about -2%.

Hold rating retained. Target reduced to $3.10 from $3.20.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.2
If BWP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates BWP as Sell (5) -

UBS believes the risk profile is considerably increased over the next three years as the company looks to re-let and re-develop a material proportion of its portfolio.

The broker does not believe the 6% distribution yield compensates for the execution risk. Moreover, a lack of clarity around capital expenditure and returns does not provide confidence. Sell maintained. Target is raised to $2.73 from $2.66.

Target price is $2.73 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.70 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.40 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF  CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

Overnight Price: $12.62

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett is concerned about the valuation metrics as the business model relies on generating earnings predominantly through leverage in risk assets.

Nevertheless, the market likes the strong volume growth outlook and the broker believes it will be difficult for the company to disappoint in this aspect.

The broker envisages no immediate catalyst for a de-rating but believes a capital raising is likely in the near future to fund growth and there are clear risks if property values fall. Lighten rating unchanged. Target is raised to $9.30 from $9.00.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $12.62 Difference: minus $3.32 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.25, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.3, implying annual growth of 13.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.8, implying annual growth of 6.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMA  GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Banks

Overnight Price: $3.20

Macquarie rates GMA as Outperform (1) -

First half net profit beat Macquarie's forecasts, with the variance largely reflecting claims that were around -$30m below expectations.

The broker expects earnings will support a 10% dividend yield for FY17 and FY18 and the forecast trajectory of regulatory capital requirements supports ongoing capital returns..

Outperform rating retained. Target rises to $3.66 from $3.63.

Target price is $3.66 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.46
If GMA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 21.10 cents and EPS of 33.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.55.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.20 cents and EPS of 30.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.56.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GMA as Sell (5) -

First half reported net profit was ahead of UBS estimates, boosted by one-of claims recovery. The company has announced a $100m buy-back, which drives upgrades to earnings per share of 3.4% in FY17 and 4.2% in FY18.

UBS believes more buy-backs are likely but, with the stock now back at a -15-20% discount to net asset value, these are becoming less accretive for shareholders.

The broker does not believe the shares sufficiently reflect the risk of NSW and Victoria following the mining states and experiencing some normalisation of cyclically low delinquencies. Sell rating and $2.60 target maintained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If GMA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.67.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.85.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GWA  GWA GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation

Overnight Price: $3.19

Morgans rates GWA as Hold (3) -

While building activity is easing, Morgans believes favourable conditions should still support earnings in FY17, given the lag between approvals and completions, when most of the company's products are installed.

Hold rating retained. Target rises to $3.00 from $2.56.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of -0.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of -3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPL  INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

Agriculture

Overnight Price: $3.22

Deutsche Bank rates IPL as Buy (1) -

US peer Mosaic posted a strong June Q result, but subdued outlook commentary and lowered guidance led to a -5% share price fall, the broker notes. The company nevertheless expects a recovery in phosphate demand, with China the swing factor.

Despite the subdued outlook, the broker retains Buy and a $4.15 target for Incitec.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.22 Difference: $0.93
If IPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 150.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of 22.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX  JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.

Building Products & Services

Overnight Price: $18.93

Deutsche Bank rates JHX as Buy (1) -

The June Q earnings report for US peer Louisiana-Pacific was positive, with siding volumes increasing by 3%. The broker concurs with the company's expectation for US housing start growth.

Buy and $22.39 target retained for James Hardie.

Target price is $22.39 Current Price is $18.93 Difference: $3.46
If JHX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.03, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 63.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 89.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.0, implying annual growth of 22.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTR  MANTRA GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

Overnight Price: $2.95

Citi rates MTR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades to Neutral from Buy on the belief that consensus market forecasts are too optimistic, albeit not dramatically so. One factor mentioned is the anticipated Commonwealth Games uplift which Citi suggests is likely to be more moderate than the market expects.

A strong Aussie dollar represents yet another downside risk, point out the analysts. Estimates have been cut. Price target drops to $3.15 from $3.27 in response.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.2
If MTR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of 20.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MTR as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes strength in Australian outbound growth and moderation in inbound growth as a higher Australian dollar makes the country more expensive for foreigners and translation of offshore assets.

The broker finds it hard to draw many positives for the company from the current conditions and downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target is reduced to $3.20 from $4.20.  Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.25
If MTR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of 20.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF  NUFARM LIMITED

Agriculture

Overnight Price: $8.55

Macquarie rates NUF as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of the company's FY17 results on September 26 Macquarie reviews the outlook. The broker believes the internal initiatives and options on M&A provide a clear path to growth.

Below-average rainfall in some regions of Australia has reduced plantings and that is negative for the Australasian business.

Meanwhile, North America is observed to be going well and the broker forecasts a 21% lift in EBIT in the second half. South America is mixed, with Brazil performing well but not sufficient to offset weakness in Argentina.

Outperform rating retained. Target is reduced to $9.90 from $10.30.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $8.55 Difference: $1.35
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.58, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 14.40 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.8, implying annual growth of 683.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.90 cents and EPS of 59.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of 20.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NVT  NAVITAS LIMITED

Education & Tuition

Overnight Price: $4.32

Morgan Stanley rates NVT as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers Navitas a company in transition, as it re-negotiates contracts and changes its relationship with some customers.

The broker observes the recent divergence in the share price performance with IDP Education ((IEL)) has been stark. Navitas shares are down -10% whereas IDP shares are up 29%.

Morgan Stanley believes it is appropriate that Navitas shares trade at a meaningful discount to IDP and calculates -10-30% is justified. Equal-weight rating retained. Target is lowered to $4.50 from $4.95. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.32 Difference: $0.18
If NVT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of -3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.30 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of 12.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OFX  OZFOREX GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials

Overnight Price: $1.67

Deutsche Bank rates OFX as Hold (3) -

Ozforex' AGM noted 1% active client growth from end FY17 (March), down from 4% for FY17. Volumes increased by 8%, as they did in FY17, despite cycling Brexit volatility.

Limited growth in clients outside of North America remains a key concern for the broker, although volatility across currency pairs has indeed remained subdued. Ironically, the strong Aussie dollar acts as a headwind for US-driven earnings. Hold and $1.60 target retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If OFX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.56.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.70.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

Overnight Price: $65.84

Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -

It appears Rio Tinto's interim financial performance fell short of market expectations, including Citi's. The analysts are anticipating market consensus will be reduced by single digit percentages for the years ahead. Citi estimates have been cut.

The analysts add the company topped up its on market share buyback program in the UK by US$1bn, but this was widely expected. Most importantly, Citi points out there is circa 25% upside at spot iron ore prices for 2H17. Buy rating and $66 price target retained.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $65.84 Difference: $0.16
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.50, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 311.96 cents and EPS of 517.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 524.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 249.84 cents and EPS of 413.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 468.7, implying annual growth of -10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 270.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

First half numbers were below Credit Suisse expectations. With capacity for further capital returns the broker believes there is a lot to like about the stock.

Unlike prior periods of higher dividends and a lacklustre outlook leading to a poor share price performance after the results, the broker believes the current dynamics in iron ore and aluminium, coupled with capital discipline and appropriate returns, mean the stock can now attract generalist investors and a higher valuation.

Outperform rating and $72 target retained.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $65.84 Difference: $6.16
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.50, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 363.52 cents and EPS of 630.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 524.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 304.03 cents and EPS of 540.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 468.7, implying annual growth of -10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 270.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Rio's result was a tad below the broker. The strong interim dividend and extended buyback nevertheless means management is delivering constant returns to shareholders.

A repeatable buyback, debt reduction, capex beats, further divestments, productivity gains and counter-cycle investment in growth lead the broker to suggest Rio is executing the most compelling strategy in the mining sector. Buy and $73 target retained.

Target price is $73.00 Current Price is $65.84 Difference: $7.16
If RIO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.50, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 272.31 cents and EPS of 503.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 524.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 260.41 cents and EPS of 475.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 468.7, implying annual growth of -10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 270.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

First half earnings were in line with Macquarie's expectations. Capital returns were boosted by a US$1.0bn increase in the buy-back, which offset a softer interim dividend.

Macquarie expects the bulk of the proceeds from the sale of Coal & Allied will be returned via an increase in the buy-back. Outperform rating and $78 target retained.

Target price is $78.00 Current Price is $65.84 Difference: $12.16
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.50, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 314.61 cents and EPS of 534.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 524.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 216.79 cents and EPS of 367.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 468.7, implying annual growth of -10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 270.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers the first half outstanding, although free cash flow and net debt were helped by low cash taxes and capital expenditure.

Cash distributions to shareholders exceed the broker's estimates by 8%. Overweight rating maintained. Target is $72. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $65.84 Difference: $6.16
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.50, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 343.69 cents and EPS of 576.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 524.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 297.42 cents and EPS of 483.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 468.7, implying annual growth of -10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 270.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates RIO as Hold (3) -

First half earnings were below expectations. The company has surprised with pay-out ratio of 75% as well as an increased share buy-back versus expectations.

Morgans had expected the company to pay out 60% of underlying earnings as an ordinary dividend. Instead, Rio Tinto has elected to pay an interim dividend of US$1.10 and announced an additional share buy-back of US$1.0bn to make a total 75% pay-out.

The CEO has made clear that the company does not see compelling value in M&A and prefers to develop a low number of projects to ensure optimal development outcomes.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $61.99 from $62.30.

Target price is $61.99 Current Price is $65.84 Difference: minus $3.85 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $71.50, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 318.57 cents and EPS of 531.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 524.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 292.14 cents and EPS of 582.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 468.7, implying annual growth of -10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 270.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -

First half earnings were below Ord Minnett's forecasts. Nevertheless, the broker maintains an Accumulate recommendation given the attractive metrics.

Capital returns were above the broker's forecasts, with a US$3bn return comprising a US$1bn additional share buy-back and an interim dividend of US$1.10 a share.

The broker also believes the stock is likely to be back in a consensus upgrade cycle, given strength in the iron ore price. Target is reduced to $71 from $72.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $65.84 Difference: $5.16
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.50, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 310.64 cents and EPS of 516.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 524.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 334.44 cents and EPS of 556.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 468.7, implying annual growth of -10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 270.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates RIO as Buy (1) -

First half earnings were below UBS estimates. Cash generation was assisted by lower capital expenditure. The broker notes the company has delivered on a commitment to return cash to shareholders by way of a dividend of US$1.10 and a US$1bn addition to the on-market buy-back.

A US$2bn reduction in net debt was also ahead of expectations. The broker believes the market should focus on the potential for returns to grow from this point. Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $78 from $75.

Target price is $78.00 Current Price is $65.84 Difference: $12.16
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.50, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 343.69 cents and EPS of 605.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 524.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 306.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 322.54 cents and EPS of 523.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 468.7, implying annual growth of -10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 270.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD  RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices

Overnight Price: $9.11

Citi rates RMD as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Q4 numbers proved better than expected and Citi analysts are of the view that management's guidance for FY18 looks "cautious", seen as a reflection of company's expectation the positive potential of the new masks will arrive incrementally and gradually through the financial period.

New masks have faced headwinds from supply bottlenecks, highlights Citi. Solid growth in devices in France should now be expected too. Small changes to estimates have been made. Target price moves to $10.50, up 50 cents, on rolling forward of valuation modeling.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.11 Difference: $1.39
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.90 cents and EPS of 39.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.49 cents and EPS of 44.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of 11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates RMD as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Flow generators drove revenue growth in the June quarter but masks were below Credit Suisse forecasts. The broker notes the lack of expansion in gross margin came from an adverse shift in mix, with robust sales of lower-margin flow generators relative to higher-margin masks.

Credit Suisse forecasts stronger mask growth versus flow generators in FY18 but suspects the impact on gross margin may be limited.

Target is reduced to $9.40 from $9.70. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $9.11 Difference: $0.29
If RMD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.77 cents and EPS of 36.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.96 cents and EPS of 41.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of 11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

Global mask sales remain weaker than Morgan Stanley expected in the fourth quarter. FY18 guidance for flat margins assumes no acceleration in mask sales and the broker suspects this is conservative.

Overweight rating. Industry view is In-Line. Price target is raised to US$77.90 from US$76.30.

Current Price is $9.11. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.51 cents and EPS of 42.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.51 cents and EPS of 49.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of 11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates RMD as Hold (3) -

Fourth quarter revenue was up 7% but earnings per share were below Ord Minnett's estimates because of the disappointing mask sales.  The broker continues to believe the new mask range can be successful, given positive industry feedback.

Nevertheless, with earnings growth expected to moderate from FY19 as the product cycle benefit dissipates, the broker lowers the target to $9.00 from $9.75. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.11 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of 11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates RMD as Buy (1) -

Back orders continue to obscure the company's results and UBS believes the fourth quarter was not instructive a new mask potential.

The company's flat outlook for gross margin is not considered supportive of higher mask growth.The company is expecting continued high flow generator and rest of the world growth, which is lower margin. Hence, a conservative view is retained on margin.

Buy retained. Target is raised to US$84.75 from US$78.47.

Current Price is $9.11. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.49 cents and EPS of 41.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.47 cents and EPS of 45.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of 11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL  REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

Overnight Price: $3.87

Citi rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts point out the NSW Court of Appeal has found that consent for a 13-year mine extension to Centennial Coal's Springvale Mine near Lithgow should not have been granted.

The court decision can become relevant to Regis Resources as the company recently negotiated an agreement with Centennial to pipe 4-5GL per annumof the Springvale discharge 70km to its planned 7Mtpa gold mine at McPhillamys.

As no further details are available at this stage, Citi has made no changes. Neutral. Target $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.87 Difference: $0.03
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.37, suggesting downside of -14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 28.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of 17.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 34.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 19.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC  RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITED

Building Products & Services

Overnight Price: $3.33

Morgans rates RWC as Hold (3) -

Morgans expects FY17 net profit to increase 22% versus management guidance for it to be in line or slightly ahead of prospectus.

The results, to be reported on August 28, are expected to be driven by market penetration of SharkBite in the US and ongoing scale and cost benefits.

Hold rating retained. Target drops to $3.32 from $3.43.

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 14.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SAR  SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gold & Silver

Overnight Price: $1.35

Citi rates SAR as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi has downgraded to Neutral from Buy, while lifting its price target to $1.48 from $1.46. The move follows a positive news announcement by the company, as reserve lives have been extended significantly.

The explanation for the move is simply "valuation". Citi's bull case scenario lifts valuation to $1.89/sh while the bear case pulls it down to $1.12/sh. A fall in Deep South grades is responsible for reduced FY18/19 earnings estimates.

Target price is $1.48 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.13
If SAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.77.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.37.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SAR as Outperform (1) -

The company has delivered a strong reserve and resource update, underpinning Macquarie's mine life assumptions at Karari and Thunderbox.

The broker observes Karari has continued to increase its endowment at depth and drilling is the only current constraint to extending the mine life. A maiden underground reserve at Thunderbox is considered an important step to further strengthen the case for a bulk underground mine.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $1.50 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.15
If SAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.28.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 12.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.16.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDF  STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

Overnight Price: $2.58

Ord Minnett rates SDF as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett expects robust earnings growth, unlikely in double digits, when the company reports FY17 results on August 23.

The broker maintains an Accumulate recommendation and raises the target to $2.90 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $0.32
If SDF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of 9.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 9.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHV  SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED

Agriculture

Overnight Price: $4.92

Morgans rates SHV as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -

The company has issued materially lower guidance for FY17 net profit because of a lower Australian dollar almond price and cost pressures. Morgans consequently downgrades FY17 net profit forecasts by -40.3% and makes material revisions to FY18 and FY19 as well.

The broker observes the quantum and timing of the downgrade is disappointing and reflects one of the most difficult seasons on record for the company.

Moreover, the belated recognition of material cost pressures is a concern. Rating is downgraded to Reduce from Hold and the target to $4.05 from $4.75.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If SHV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.00.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.22.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SHV as Neutral (3) -

The company has announced slightly higher FY17 volumes and lower pricing guidance. Low almond crack-out rates have affected costs as well as increased rent and electricity.

As a result FY17 net profit guidance is $7.5-8.5m, marginally below UBS estimates. The broker downgrades forecasts for earnings per share by -9% for FY17 and -6-7% for future periods.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is $4.56.

Target price is $4.56 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If SHV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.41.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 34.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.43.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN  SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Banks

Overnight Price: $14.50

ADDED

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts can hardly believe how weak Suncorp's financial result is. Stand outs, it appears, are General Insurance in New Zealand and the domestic banking operations. The latter is described as of "poor quality".

Management announced a $100m investment in its Marketplace strategy and the analysts suggest investors probably won't like this either. With headwinds on the horizon for FY18, the analysts predict the outlook for the share price is looking bleak. Neutral. Target $14.25.

Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $14.50 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.45, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 92.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.6, implying annual growth of 10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 100.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.0, implying annual growth of 8.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TME  TRADE ME GROUP LIMITED

Online media & mobile platforms

Overnight Price: $5.08

Macquarie rates TME as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie has reviewed forecasting assumptions and downgrades the stock to Underperform from Neutral as a result. Target is lowered to NZ$5.00 from NZ$5.30.

This downgrade reflects the strong margins currently being enjoyed, and the market's expectations for margin growth at a time when competitor activity has stepped up.

Macquarie does not expect margin growth and would not be surprised if the company signals further investment in development.

Current Price is $5.08. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 21.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.98 cents and EPS of 23.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of 13.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TTS  TATTS GROUP LIMITED

Gaming

Overnight Price: $4.03

Ord Minnett rates TTS as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett expects a weak FY17 result when the company reports in August 17.  Net profit estimates are lowered by -5.5% for FY17 and -5.0% for FY18 after weaker wagering and digital indicators.

Target is trimmed to $4.00 from $4.10. Lighten rating retained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If TTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY17:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

Overnight Price: $12.54

Deutsche Bank rates TWE as Hold (3) -

The National Vintage Report 2017 notes a 5% increase on the 2016 crush, marking the third year of growth and the highest tonnage in history.

The broker sees this as a positive for Treasury Wines, particularly given volume growth in premium fruit to which the company is more exposed. Hold and $12.00 target retained.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.54 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.93, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.2, implying annual growth of 60.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOR  WORLEYPARSONS LIMITED

Energy Sector Contracting

Overnight Price: $12.21

Deutsche Bank rates WOR as Buy (1) -

After analysing the metrics of the takeover in the US of an unlisted contracting company by Jacob's Engineering, the broker concludes further upside in WorleyParsons' share price will stem from another takeover offer given WorleyParsons deserves a similar multiple. Buy and $13.74 target retained.

Target price is $13.74 Current Price is $12.21 Difference: $1.53
If WOR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.30, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.2, implying annual growth of 449.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.4, implying annual growth of 31.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
ALL - ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $20.76
ALQ - ALS LIMITED Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $7.60
API - AUS PHARMACEUTICAL IND Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.76
AQG - ALACER GOLD Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.17
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $2.17
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.17
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.17
BDR - BEADELL RESOURCES Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $0.20
BLD - BORAL Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $6.81
BWP - BWP TRUST Sell - Citi Overnight Price $2.90
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.90
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.90
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $2.90
CGF - CHALLENGER Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $12.62
GMA - GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSUR Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.20
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $3.20
GWA - GWA GROUP Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.19
IPL - INCITEC PIVOT Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.22
JHX - JAMES HARDIE Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $18.93
MTR - MANTRA GROUP Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.95
Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.95
NUF - NUFARM Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.55
NVT - NAVITAS Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.32
OFX - OZFOREX GROUP Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $1.67
RIO - RIO TINTO Buy - Citi Overnight Price $65.84
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $65.84
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $65.84
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $65.84
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $65.84
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $65.84
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $65.84
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $65.84
RMD - RESMED Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $9.11
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $9.11
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $9.11
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.11
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $9.11
RRL - REGIS RESOURCES Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $3.87
RWC - RELIANCE WORLDWIDE Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.33
SAR - SARACEN MINERAL Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $1.35
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.35
SDF - STEADFAST GROUP Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.58
SHV - SELECT HARVESTS Downgrade to Reduce from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $4.92
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $4.92
SUN - SUNCORP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $14.50
TME - TRADE ME GROUP Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.08
TTS - TATTS GROUP Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.03
TWE - TREASURY WINE ESTATES Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $12.54
WOR - WORLEYPARSONS Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $12.21
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

21

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

17

4. Reduce

2

5. Sell

7

Thursday 03 August 2017

Access Broker Call Report Archives here

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.