Australian Broker Call

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April 16, 2019

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AHG - AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
GEM - G8 EDUCATION Downgrade to Sell from Hold Deutsche Bank
PPT - PERPETUAL Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Macquarie
PTM - PLATINUM Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Macquarie
RRL - REGIS RESOURCES Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
AGL  AGL ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $21.98

Macquarie rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes the near-term strength in power pricing ignores the uncertainty being created by the prospect of a new government with a stronger bias to renewables.

Churn has moved back to longer-term levels in electricity and gas, faster than the broker expected, which is positive for retail earnings.

The broker upgrades FY19 and FY20 estimates for earnings per share by 0.6% and 1.2%, respectively. In the medium term Macquarie is conservative about the outlook and reduces the contribution from the Newcastle gas plant, offset by lower discount rate.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $20.78 from $20.61.

Target price is $20.78 Current Price is $21.98 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.94, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 117.00 cents and EPS of 153.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.7, implying annual growth of -20.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 122.00 cents and EPS of 161.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.3, implying annual growth of -2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AHG  AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $2.42

Macquarie rates AHG as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie believes Automotive Holdings will be a strong strategic fit with AP Eagers ((APE)), which has announced an all-scrip merger for the remaining shares it does not hold.

The broker believes the merger is compelling for shareholders of Automotive Holdings, providing a tactical opportunity. Automotive comparables ease materially after June suggesting a bottom in the industry may be approaching.

The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target to $2.65 from $1.95.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.23
If AHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.05, suggesting downside of -15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of -8.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 16.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF  ARENA REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.79

Deutsche Bank rates ARF as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -

Deutsche Bank does not believe the industry's issues have been solved, as is implied by the stock price. The business has been an exceptional performer, growing distributions from FY13 at a compound rate of 8.7%.

This has been driven by favourable market structures and accretive developments. For this reason the stock is trading at a significant premium to net tangible assets, which the broker believes was previously warranted.

Deutsche Bank initiates coverage with a Sell rating and $2.35 target.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKL  BLACKMORES LIMITED

Health & Nutrition

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Overnight Price: $88.10

Macquarie rates BKL as Neutral (3) -

In initial response to the Q3 update, Macquarie analysts find the release marks "the weakest 3Q earnings result since 2015". The analysts point out Blackmores was cycling a supply impacted pcp through 3Q19 which suggests the underlying trends are weaker.

In addition, invoiced sales (pre-rebates) were down -8% for the quarter, note the analysts. They remind investors Blackmores is underperforming its peers in China and today's update seems to provide more evidence of this. Neutral rating retained, alongside the observation that a struggling company on weakening trend is likely to face ongoing pressure on the share price. Target $95.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $88.10 Difference: $6.9
If BKL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $90.92, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 283.60 cents and EPS of 373.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 378.4, implying annual growth of -6.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 284.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 324.90 cents and EPS of 427.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 421.5, implying annual growth of 11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 317.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF  COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $7.08

UBS rates CKF as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights the multi-pronged growth strategy through expansion of KFC in Australia, Germany and The Netherlands, together with a opportunity to roll out Taco Bell in Australia. The broker considers the valuation attractive and retains a Buy rating.

Target is raised to $8.00 from $7.80. The broker observes potential risk of higher-than-usual wage increases under a Labor government and inflation in chicken feed costs could result in higher chicken prices.

UBS estimates that absorbing these costs could reduce FY20 net profit estimates by -7-11%.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.08 Difference: $0.92
If CKF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.70 cents and EPS of 38.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of 39.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.90 cents and EPS of 43.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.3, implying annual growth of 9.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CYB  CYBG PLC

Banks

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Overnight Price: $3.93

Citi rates CYB as Buy (1) -

CYBG released their capital notice and in response Citi's UK analyst has reduced estimates, first by -7% for FY20, and subsequently by -1-3% for the following years. Higher costs are to blame. Citi sticks with the Buy rating as it believes much of the bad news is already priced in.

The broker sees a lack of catalysts plus ongoing margin pressure dominating the bank's outlook, but also recognises the improving return profile is attractive for long-term investors. Results for 1H are scheduled for release on 15th May. Buy. Target GBP2.30.

Current Price is $3.93. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.55, suggesting downside of -9.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.3, implying annual growth of 12.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GBT  GBST HOLDINGS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $2.50

Morgans rates GBT as Add (1) -

One of the company's main competitors, Bravura, has made an indicative and non-binding takeover bid at $2.50 a share. Morgans believes the bid undervalues the company's long-term potential and the multiples are way below global comparable software takeover multiples.

GBST is developing a global franchise as a supplier of core systems to large banks and wealth managers. Morgans maintains an Add rating, in the expectation that a change of control event will occur sometime in the next 12 months. Target is raised to $3.47 from $2.43.

Target price is $3.47 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: $0.97
If GBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.3, implying annual growth of 44.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 15.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GEM  G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare

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Overnight Price: $3.25

Deutsche Bank rates GEM as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Deutsche Bank believes the business may be underperforming peers. The company's competitive position is a bigger driver of profitability than the macro environment.

Occupancy growth at the start of 2019 appears lower than peers and could represent a slowing of momentum from the December half, the broker suggests.

Deutsche Bank downgrades to Sell from Hold, suspecting that consensus is giving the company the benefit of the doubt on improvements in occupancy and assuming around 10% growth in revenue. Target is $2.70.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If GEM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 19.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GEM as Buy (1) -

UBS believes increases by the industry position the company for a price increase in July. The broker's survey of over 200 childcare centres revealed a mix of both pricing increases and decreases.

The broker envisages upside earnings risk from occupancy improving throughout 2019. Industry sources have noted an improvement in occupancy from the start of 2019.

UBS considers the stock's valuation appealing and retains a Buy rating and $3.80 target.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.55
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 19.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 24.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 19.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU  ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands

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Overnight Price: $9.08

Credit Suisse rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Iluka's overall production was in line with the broker albeit with a skew towards zircon. Zircon sales were lower in a cautious environment due to trade uncertainty, with post Chinese New Year buying slow to ramp back up. Titanium demand remains robust. Outperform and $10.40 target retained.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $1.32
If ILU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.46, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 92.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.9, implying annual growth of 28.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 58.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.1, implying annual growth of 6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

The first quarter result was mixed, in Macquarie's view, with the seasonal impact of planned shut-downs having a greater impact on sales versus expectations. The zircon market appears tight and the company is managing volumes to ensure a stable pricing outlook.

Meanwhile, industry supply has tightened the rutile market and the broker envisages upside risk to the base case. Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating and $9.20 target.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $0.12
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.46, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 91.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.9, implying annual growth of 28.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 109.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.1, implying annual growth of 6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

First quarter production was in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. The broker considers it too early in the year to identify trends.

Strong demand for high-grade titanium dioxide feed stocks was in evidence and the company expects continued growth in 2019. Demand is outstripping Iluka's capacity to supply.

Overweight rating and Attractive industry view maintained. Target is $11.25.

Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $2.17
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.46, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 101.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.9, implying annual growth of 28.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.1, implying annual growth of 6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates ILU as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett found the first quarter production result mixed, with a seasonally weak zircon market, a planned outage for maintenance at the synthetic rutile kiln and delayed shipments.

Overall, rutile production was better than forecast. A sluggish market after Chinese New Year led to weaker zircon sales versus expectations. Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating with a $10.50 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $1.42
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.46, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.20 cents and EPS of 92.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.9, implying annual growth of 28.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 50.80 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.1, implying annual growth of 6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ILU as Buy (1) -

Production in the March quarter was ahead of UBS estimates, albeit down sequentially because of the outage from the kiln re-lining and a transition to the newly-built Cataby mine.

The company has indicated that full-year guidance metrics are on track. Zircon markets were described as stable, despite commentary that buying activity remains slow in some sectors.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and $11 target. The broker believes an improving operating performance and further rises in feedstock prices should drive the stock higher.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $1.92
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.46, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.9, implying annual growth of 28.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 117.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.1, implying annual growth of 6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHG  JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC.

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $34.96

Citi rates JHG as Neutral (3) -

Citi has refreshed its numbers ahead of the quarterly market update scheduled for May 2nd and arrived at the conclusion there are some green shoots emerging, but not sufficiently to get excited about.

While the analysts see longer term value at these prices, they also concede to get the share price genuinely moving the market would like to see improvement in flows and performance sustained for longer. Neutral rating and target at $36.40.

Target price is $36.40 Current Price is $34.96 Difference: $1.44
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.98, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 350.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 203.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 365.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 215.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MLX  METALS X LIMITED

Tin

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Overnight Price: $0.27

Macquarie rates MLX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the operating performance of Renison and Nifty has been improving and earnings beat estimates in the March quarter.

Cash and working capital were 3% higher than forecast. The broker increases estimates for earnings per share by 3-8% for FY19-23. Outperform rating and $0.60 target maintained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.33
If MLX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 27.00.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.97.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MPL  MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $2.70

Deutsche Bank rates MPL as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank observes the company has enjoyed a widening in margins, driven by changing customer mix and improved contracting.

The broker believes a higher gross margin is sustainable and its further moves to alleviate pressures via out-of-home care should continue to support outcomes. A Buy rating is reiterated. The $3.10 target is maintained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.4
If MPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley expects an unprecedented number of disruptions to the private health insurance industry over the next 12 months. These include major product reforms taking affect from April as well as the likely 2% cap on annual premium increases for at least two years.

Also, growth in hospital substitute providers including at-home and day hospitals as well as deteriorating perceptions of private hospitals may have an impact.

The broker considers the product reform risks for the insurers manageable and notes Medibank Private's brand perception is recovering. The broker maintains an Underweight rating and raises the target to $2.40 from $2.30. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.20 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -1.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHF  NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $5.45

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects an unprecedented number of disruptions to the private health insurance industry over the next 12 months. These include major product reforms taking affect from April as well as the likely 2% cap on annual premium increases for at least two years.

Also, growth in hospital substitute providers including at-home and day hospitals as well as deteriorating perceptions of private hospitals may have an impact.

Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is raised to $5.30 from $5.25. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.71, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.80 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 18.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of 3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF  NUFARM LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $5.21

Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the business is on track for earnings and working capital targets. The broker believes the current share price is capitalising current seasonal challenges, although greater confidence in the balance sheet is required for any sustained re-rating.

The broker envisages scope for material de-leveraging through the second half and significant valuation upside. Overweight rating. Target is $7.10. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $1.89
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.44, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of 1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.0, implying annual growth of 50.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL  OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Copper

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Overnight Price: $10.55

Deutsche Bank rates OZL as Hold (3) -

The company produced 27,000t of copper in the March quarter, largely in line with Deutsche Bank's estimates. Gold production of 35,000 ounces was down -13% quarter on quarter and below the broker's estimates.

Deutsche Bank notes management has signalled its confidence in West Musgrave by increasing ownership to 70%. Deutsche Bank reduces estimates for 2019 earnings per share by -11%. Hold rating maintained. Target is $10.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $10.55 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.23, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.5, implying annual growth of 20.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDL  PENDAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $8.66

Ord Minnett rates PDL as Hold (3) -

Pendal Group has announced a 9% increase in funds under management at the end of the March quarter. Net inflows were assisted by large low-margin flows from cash and fixed income products in the institutional channel.

JO Hambro business, historically the driver of flows, reported another quarter of outflows. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and $8.50 target.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $8.66 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If PDL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.06, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 51.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.3, implying annual growth of -20.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 58.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 10.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV  PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $16.36

UBS rates PMV as Buy (1) -

UBS observes the implied multiple for Smiggle has heavily de-rated. The broker believes Premier Investments' share price either ascribes no value to apparel brands or values Smiggle at 9-12x enterprise value/EBIT if the apparel brands are worth around $411m.

Either way, the broker considers this unjustified and reiterates a Buy rating and $19.80 target.

Target price is $19.80 Current Price is $16.36 Difference: $3.44
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.03, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 81.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.5, implying annual growth of 53.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 92.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.5, implying annual growth of 12.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT  PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $40.26

Macquarie rates PPT as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie envisages downside risk to flows and downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. The stock is currently trading at an 8% premium to the sector.

Outflows have largely been driven from institutional channels, but there was also a continuation of broad-based outflows in recent quarters in the intermediary and retail channels.

Market conditions remain supportive, in the broker's view. Target is raised to $38 from $36.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $40.26 Difference: minus $2.26 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.14, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 240.00 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 258.8, implying annual growth of -15.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 242.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 240.00 cents and EPS of 251.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 266.5, implying annual growth of 3.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 243.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates PPT as Hold (3) -

Morgans was disappointed with the March quarter flows, noting $1.3bn of the $1.9bn in net outflows related to the loss of a single Australian equities mandate. On the positive side, a recovery in markets largely offset the impact of outflows on funds under management.

The broker marginally reduces estimates for FY19 and FY20 earnings per share by -1% and -2%, respectively. The broker considers the stock inexpensive for a fund manager but remains cautious about the outflows.

Hold rating maintained. Some signs of progress under the new management are required before Morgans becomes more positive. Target is raised to $39.99 from $36.60.

Target price is $39.99 Current Price is $40.26 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.14, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 235.00 cents and EPS of 269.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 258.8, implying annual growth of -15.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 242.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 224.00 cents and EPS of 263.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 266.5, implying annual growth of 3.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 243.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM  PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $4.88

Macquarie rates PTM as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie continues to envisage near-term risk to flows, absent a turn in performance. However, the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform following the recent weakness in the share price.

Consistent with peers, market movements for the March quarter broadly offset the reduction experienced in the prior quarter. Target is raised to $4.85 from $4.60.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.42, suggesting downside of -9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of -18.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 3.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC  RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $63.67

Citi rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

In March, Ramsay Health Care had organised meetings with its operations in France, Northern Europe and the UK. Citi analysts have grabbed the opportunity to also meet with competitors and industry players in the region.

The conclusion drawn is that, after several years of difficult external operating environment, the European businesses of Ramsay Health Care will likely improve in FY20, largely driven by an increase in French and UK tariffs.

In addition, the analysts believe post-Brexit the attention in the UK will focus on decreasing the surgical wait lists, which would be yet another positive. In the meantime, circa 70% of group profits are still generated in Australia and a new Labor government could raise headwinds, suggest the analysts.

Estimates have been lifted by up to 3% for the years ahead, which pushes up the price target to $67 from $65. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $63.67 Difference: $3.33
If RHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.27, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 151.00 cents and EPS of 287.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 286.1, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 326.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 314.4, implying annual growth of 9.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $101.18

ADDED

Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Rio Tinto had previously warned investors it would not meet production guidance this year, but, judging from Citi's initial response to the March quarter production update released today, the March quarterly update significantly fell short of expectations.

Most of the negative surprise stems from Pilbara iron ore where shipments were down -22% qoq and -8% below Citi's estimate. However, taking guidance from management's new guidance, and placing themselves in the middle of the new range, Citi analysts find they only need to reduce forecasts by -4%.

Price target remains intact at $108, and so does the Buy rating.

Target price is $108.00 Current Price is $101.18 Difference: $6.82
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $94.67, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 930.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 541.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 794.3, implying annual growth of -14.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 474.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates RIO as Hold (3) -

Rio Tinto has approved a further US$302m towards advancing the Resolution Copper project in Arizona. This is potentially the most valuable growth option for the company, Ord Minnett believes, from a value accretion perspective.

Project partners Rio Tinto with 55% and BHP Group ((BHP)) with 45% have now invested US$2bn since 2004. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating with a $99 target and, while positive on the project, notes there is a long wait, as first production is unlikely before 2030.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $99.00 Current Price is $101.18 Difference: minus $2.18 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $94.67, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 930.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 541.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 794.3, implying annual growth of -14.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 474.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL  REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $5.02

Credit Suisse rates RRL as Underperform (5) -

The pre-feasibility study of Regis Resources' Rosemont underground project largely confirms prior modelling. Mine life expectation has been slightly increased, as have grade assumptions. Costs lower than initial estimate.

The broker retains Underperform and a $4.45 target.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.52 cents and EPS of 31.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of -8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 19.30 cents and EPS of 38.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.3, implying annual growth of 17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates RRL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The company has a pre-feasibility study and maiden reserve for the Rosemont underground mine. The new mine plan envisages 246,000 ounces at 3.9g/t over a five-year period.

Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is $5.60, unchanged. The broker expects further incremental resource and reserve growth as the company continues to drill the underground.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.58
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 34.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of -8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 44.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.3, implying annual growth of 17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGR  THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $4.55

Macquarie rates SGR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie upgrades FY20 VIP assumptions, supported by improving macro conditions in China and a view that the Macau VIP will bottom in the June quarter.

Meanwhile, the domestic business, which represents over 80% of operating earnings (EBITDA), is considered defensive and supported by recent capital expenditure. The broker maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $5.20 from $5.10.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.65
If SGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.52, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.50 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.7, implying annual growth of 52.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 28.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of 6.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $16.15

Credit Suisse rates TWE as Outperform (1) -

Treasury Wine has successfully moved the 2016 vintage on to Chinese shelves to drive FY19 sales. The broker is confident the company can meet its sales target.

A slower Chinese economy nevertheless suggests no price rises for FY20, but the broker believes greater penetration across the Chinese market can offset.

Outperform and $19.85 target retained.

Target price is $19.85 Current Price is $16.15 Difference: $3.7
If TWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.74, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 61.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of 23.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 72.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.5, implying annual growth of 19.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates TWE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reiterates an Outperform rating, noting an upturn in China is a catalyst for the consumer exposures globally. Asia is increasingly contributing to the company's earnings, now 45% of EBIT, which bodes well, in the broker's view, given the high margin profile.

The current share price underperformance provides an attractive entry point, in the broker's view. Target is steady at $19.02.

Target price is $19.02 Current Price is $16.15 Difference: $2.87
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.74, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 40.80 cents and EPS of 63.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of 23.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 49.90 cents and EPS of 77.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.5, implying annual growth of 19.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC  WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks

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Overnight Price: $26.39

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Westpac has re-stated some of its profit and percent loss and balance sheet items in the lead up to the first half result. Changes reflect the adoption of new accounting standards and efforts to improve the presentation of information.

Morgan Stanley finds this has no impact on cash earnings or valuation and price target. The broker maintains an Underweight rating and $24.10 target. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $24.10 Current Price is $26.39 Difference: minus $2.29 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.06, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 204.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 213.5, implying annual growth of -9.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 215.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.3, implying annual growth of 8.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 191.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AGL AGL ENERGY Macquarie 20.78 20.61 0.82%
AHG AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS Macquarie 2.65 1.95 35.90%
CKF COLLINS FOODS UBS 8.00 7.80 2.56%
GBT GBST HOLDINGS Morgans 3.47 2.43 42.80%
GEM G8 EDUCATION Deutsche Bank 2.70 2.93 -7.85%
ILU ILUKA RESOURCES Morgan Stanley 11.25 11.20 0.45%
Ord Minnett 10.50 10.00 5.00%
JHG JANUS HENDERSON GROUP Citi 36.40 31.30 16.29%
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP Macquarie 39.00 31.75 22.83%
MPL MEDIBANK PRIVATE Morgan Stanley 2.40 2.30 4.35%
NAB NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK Morgans 24.50 25.00 -2.00%
NHF NIB HOLDINGS Morgan Stanley 5.30 5.15 2.91%
OZL OZ MINERALS Deutsche Bank 10.50 11.00 -4.55%
PDL PENDAL GROUP Macquarie 9.50 10.00 -5.00%
PPT PERPETUAL Macquarie 38.00 36.00 5.56%
Morgans 39.99 36.60 9.26%
PTM PLATINUM Macquarie 4.85 4.60 5.43%
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE Citi 67.00 65.00 3.08%
SGR STAR ENTERTAINMENT Macquarie 5.20 5.40 -3.70%
Summaries
AGL AGL ENERGY Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $21.98
AHG AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.42
ARF ARENA REIT Initiation of coverage with Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $2.79
BKL BLACKMORES Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $88.10
CKF COLLINS FOODS Buy - UBS Overnight Price $7.08
CYB CYBG Buy - Citi Overnight Price $3.93
GBT GBST HOLDINGS Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.50
GEM G8 EDUCATION Downgrade to Sell from Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.25
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.25
ILU ILUKA RESOURCES Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $9.08
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $9.08
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $9.08
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.08
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $9.08
JHG JANUS HENDERSON GROUP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $34.96
MLX METALS X Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.27
MPL MEDIBANK PRIVATE Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $2.70
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.70
NHF NIB HOLDINGS Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.45
NUF NUFARM Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.21
OZL OZ MINERALS Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $10.55
PDL PENDAL GROUP Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $8.66
PMV PREMIER INVESTMENTS Buy - UBS Overnight Price $16.36
PPT PERPETUAL Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $40.26
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $40.26
PTM PLATINUM Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.88
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $63.67
RIO RIO TINTO Buy - Citi Overnight Price $101.18
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $101.18
RRL REGIS RESOURCES Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.02
Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.02
SGR STAR ENTERTAINMENT Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.55
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $16.15
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $16.15
WBC WESTPAC BANKING Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $26.39
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

17

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

11

5. Sell

6

Tuesday 16 April 2019

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.