Australian Broker Call

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October 25, 2021

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CRW - Cashrewards Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy Ord Minnett
MQG - Macquarie Group Upgrade to Neutral from Sell Citi
SLA - Silk Laser Australia Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy Ord Minnett
360  LIFE360, INC

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $9.47

Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -

After the Andoid App Store reportedly announced a reduction in take rate to 15% from 30% of initial subscriptions, Morgan Stanley feels the odds for its bull case for Life360 are improving.

The move could materially change the market's assessment of terminal margins and earnings power, according to the analyst. Typically iOS has moved in tandem on pricing. The Overweight rating and $10.50 target price are retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.47 Difference: $1.03
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 64.88.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 50.98.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ABB  AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $4.92

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates ABB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett sees the takeover offer for Over the Wire ((OTW)) has the potential to accelerate Aussie Broadband's business offering. The indicative proposal price is $5.75 per share, and includes a yet-to-be-determined mix of cash and scrip.

On a pro-forma basis, the analyst estimates the transaction will likely be earnings per share accretive. It's noted Over the Wire has a lower level of organic growth relative to Aussie Broadband. The $5.60 target price and Buy rating are retained.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.68
If ABB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 92.83.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.14.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ  AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $28.21

Citi rates ANZ as Sell (5) -

Citi's estimates are -1.5% below consensus for the FY21 result. This is largely because of lower markets income expectations.

Mitigating this is lower bad debts and the broker forecasts a provision release of $154m in the fourth quarter.

The bank will report its results on October 28 and Citi retains a Sell rating with a $28 target.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $28.21 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.60, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 201.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.7, implying annual growth of 62.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 196.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 216.6, implying annual growth of 5.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 147.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APT  AFTERPAY LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $126.00

Morgan Stanley rates APT as No Rating (-1) -

While merchants like Afterpay may chose not to surcharge, Morgan Stanley feels the ability to do so, after the RBA's Retail Payments Review, is a negative for BNPL providers in general. It's thought the reform will place downwards pressure on BNPL industry fees.

The RBA doesn’t have powers to impose the rules as yet, but will work with Treasury to create new regulations.

The broker has no rating or target at present. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $126.00. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $141.68, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1400.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11145.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 140.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of 2463.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 434.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates APT as Neutral (3) -

UBS had always suspected that the "no surcharge" rules of the BNPL sector would eventually be prohibited. The Payments System Board has concluded that it would be the public interest if these rules were removed so that merchants can apply a surcharge to payments if they wish.

The broker considers this is a materially negative development for the likes of Afterpay, particularly given its reliance on high merchant fees to fund its economics, and places completion risk on the proposed acquisition by Square.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and $140 target, based of the takeover offer by Square. This compares with its fundamental valuation of $44 a share.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $126.00 Difference: $14
If APT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $141.68, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 300.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11145.5.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 111.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 113.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of 2463.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 434.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ  AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $3.65

Macquarie rates AZJ as No Rating (-1) -

Aurizon Holdings has acquired One Rail for $2.35bn. The coal assets will be divested or de-merged after the acquisition. Management expects the transaction to be 10% accretive and bulk earnings should rise by $80m to $220m and increase the bulks share of above-rail revenue to 40%.

One Rail provides intermodal and bulk freight in South Australia Northern Territory as well as operating the track of the Tarcoola to Darwin section. Macquarie is unable to provide a rating or target at present.

Current Price is $3.65. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 28.10 cents and EPS of 28.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of -27.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 29.50 cents and EPS of 28.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of 2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Underweight (5) -

While Morgan Stanley likes the diversification away from coal there will be higher leverage as a result of Aurizon Holdings' agreement to acquire OneRail. The intention to sell OneRail's coal haulage business is thought to also add divestment execution risk.

The transactions are consistent with the company's stated strategy of growing Bulk (non-coal) earnings, explains the analyst. It's estimated FY23 non-coal earnings (EBITDA) increase to 36% from 31% of Above Rail, including $7-10m of synergies.

The Underweight rating and $3.92 target price are retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.92 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.27
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of -27.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.40 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of 2.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT  BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $1.38

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley oil strategists expect higher LNG prices and returns for Australian energy companies, as demand for LNG is likely to exceed current expectations. The broker's long-term LNG price forecast rises nearly 30% to US$10/mmbtu.

The broker feels M&A will likely be a key driver of value, as companies look to divest equity ownership in LNG projects and prepare for expansion. Higher JKM LNG forecasts and a higher long-term Brent oil price forecast (US$70/bbl) are used.

After updating for the above, the analyst raises Beach Energy's target price to $1.70 from $1.40 and maintains the Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.32
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.65, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 21.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 36.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 23.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of -12.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $20.64

Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -

Citi updates its modelling following upwardly revised guidance. The company expects first half EBIT in the range of $2.1-2.3bn.

The main driver is North Star spreads, better Australian steel volumes and strong momentum in North American coated products. More detail will be provided at the AGM scheduled for November 18.

Citi maintains a Buy rating and $27.50 target.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $20.64 Difference: $6.86
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.34, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 517.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.9, implying annual growth of 135.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 249.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 308.9, implying annual growth of -44.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Buy (1) -

BlueScope raised first half earnings (EBIT) guidance to $2.1-2.3bn from $1.8–2bn, in-line with Ord Minnett's $2.1bn estimate prior to the upgrade. However, the broker forecasts the first half should be the peak half in earnings this cycle. The target falls to $33 from $35.

The analyst reiterates a Buy rating and remains positive on steel market conditions (excluding China), with East Asia prices likely to be supported by any reduction in China exports. It's also noted US steel capacity utilisation rates remain relatively high at 85%

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $20.64 Difference: $12.36
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.34, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 668.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.9, implying annual growth of 135.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 557.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 308.9, implying annual growth of -44.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRW  CASHREWARDS LIMITED

Retailing

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Overnight Price: $1.10

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates CRW as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett believes the takeover offer by ANZ Bank's ((ANZ)) innovation and investment arm, 1835i, for Cashrewards is likely to proceed. This is because the existing 19% shareholder (1835i) is the natural acquirer, and it has recently extended a $15m loan to Cashrewards.

On a reduced likelihood of a superior offer, the broker reduces its rating to Accumulate from Buy and lowers its target price to $1.30 from $2.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.2
If CRW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 39.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.81.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.12.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY  CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $2.84

UPDATED

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

The AGM update was largely in line with Macquarie's expectations. Coronavirus-related restrictions have cost the company -$4m in EBITDA per month yet large parts of the CDS network have returned to service in mid-September and are now fully operational.

Macquarie assesses new management has a solid foundation on which to build, with the acquisition of the Suez assets to provide the next catalyst. Cleanaway Waste Management expects the ACCC to complete its assessment of this purchase shortly.

Outperform rating retained. Target rises to $3.20 from $3.15.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.36
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.74, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.20 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of 28.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVT  EVENT HOSPITALITY & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $15.99

Citi rates EVT as Buy (1) -

Citi notes the challenging conditions across the core business yet believes momentum will improve from the second quarter as Australasian markets reopen.

The broker also suspects investors will ascribe a higher value to the property assets as the company has successfully executed on some divestments.

Event Hospitality plans to generate $250m from property divestments by FY23, of which 43% has been completed. The AGM has indicated that Germany is the "bright spot" in the outlook, amid strong admissions.

Citi reiterates a Buy rating and raises the target to $18.65 from $17.70.

Target price is $18.65 Current Price is $15.99 Difference: $2.66
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 148.06.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 36.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.81.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FCL  FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC

Cloud services

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Overnight Price: $3.90

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

FY22 revenue guidance is unchanged at EUR125-130m and this implies 17.7% revenue growth at the mid point. Macquarie notes it also includes subscription revenue guidance of around 30%.

The broker also notes the company has a number of cross-selling and up-selling opportunities with existing clients as well as new opportunities.

Outperform rating and $4.92 target price maintained.

Target price is $4.92 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $1.02
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.89, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 205.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 491.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1955.0.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HMC  HOME CONSORTIUM

Real Estate

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Overnight Price: $7.90

Credit Suisse rates HMC as Neutral (3) -

Assuming the takeover of Aventus Group ((AVN)) involving Homeco Daily Needs ((HDN)) goes ahead, Credit Suisse calculates assets under management will increase to $5bn.

Home Consortium is paying 7% of total consideration. FY22 earnings guidance has been upgraded to $0.26 per security and distribution guidance is unchanged at $0.12.

Credit Suisse revises FY22, FY23 and FY24 estimates up by 42.5%, 6.6% and 3.7%, while acknowledging there is downside risk to estimates in the transaction does not proceed. The broker raises the target to $7.53 from $5.87 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $7.53 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.79, suggesting downside of -17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of 18.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUM  HUMM GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $0.91

Macquarie rates HUM as Outperform (1) -

Most divisions were broadly in line in the first quarter and Macquarie notes the second quarter should experience benefits from seasonality and an easing of restrictions as well as increases in travel expenditure.

Net losses were higher than the broker expected in BNPL and Australian cards but this should be offset by provision releases.

Macquarie believes provision releases should support earnings along with a recovery in Australian card volumes. Outperform rating and $1.20 target maintained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.29
If HUM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 35.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of -10.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.3, implying annual growth of 24.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates HUM as Buy (1) -

Volume growth was 40% and ahead of expectations. Yet UBS points out comparables will become more challenging from the second quarter. There was continued momentum in BNPL volumes and a strong result in commercial.

Card volumes were -30% lower, reflecting the impact of lockdowns and the travel exposure in this division. Forecasts are broadly unchanged.

The broker does not believe the company is priced for growth or success in its geographic expansion and new product initiatives, yet suspects investors require greater confidence in the ability to grow net profit in order to re-rate the stock.

Buy rating and $1.45 target maintained.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.54
If HUM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 35.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of -10.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.3, implying annual growth of 24.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG  INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $5.11

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

In a trading update, Insurance Australia Group has left guidance unchanged for gross written premium growth (GWP) and margins. Morgan Stanley estimates gross savings in Q1 of  around $130m, which could increase the H1 insurance margin uplift of around 3.5%.

While Q1 GWP growth was a slight improvement, management cautioned there will portfolio remediation in broker lines.The Equal-weight rating and target price of $4.80 are retained. Industry view: In-line. 

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.11 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of 7.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Morgans rates IAG as Add (1) -

Insurance Australia Group's FY22 trading update is positive and management reiterates FY22 guidance but warns of higher risks.

Morgans downgrades earnings less than -1% and shaves -1c from the target price to $5.64.

Add rating retained, the broker admiring the undemanding price-earnings multiple.

Target price is $5.64 Current Price is $5.11 Difference: $0.53
If IAG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.60 cents and EPS of 26.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.20 cents and EPS of 29.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of 7.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett maintains its Overweight rating and $5.35 target price for Insurance Australia Group after a trading update at its AGM. Guidance for the gross written premium (GWP) and underlying margin were reaffirmed.

The analyst's forecast earnings do not reflect any benefit from the unwinding of business interruption (BI) insurance. It's estimated this could approach nearly $1bn, if the current second test case findings are upheld.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $5.11 Difference: $0.24
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of 7.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR  KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $1.65

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley oil strategists expect higher LNG prices and returns for Australian energy companies, as demand for LNG is likely to exceed current expectations. The broker's long-term LNG price forecast rises nearly 30% to US$10/mmbtu.

The broker feels M&A will likely be a key driver of value, as companies look to divest equity ownership in LNG projects and prepare for expansion. Higher JKM LNG forecasts and a higher long-term Brent oil price forecast (US$70/bbl) are used.

Karoon Energy is one of the broker's two Overweight-rated companies in the sector. The target price rises to $2.10 from $1.85. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.45
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of 852.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 153.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGX  MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $0.45

Citi rates MGX as Buy (1) -

Citi was disappointed with the September quarter. There was limited access to the main pit at Koolan Island so grades were lower than expected. The company expects to be encountering higher grade material later this year.

Low prices have forced a suspension of Shine. The site is being ramped down this month and cash flow was negative -$17m in the quarter.

Citi reduces estimates for net profit in FY22 and FY23 by -38% a -23%, respectively. Buy/High Risk rating maintained. Target is 60c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.15
If MGX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.54.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.85.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $39.38

UPDATED

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

In a first reaction to today's announcement, Macquarie notes the re-start of the first train at the Wodgina lithium mine is a positive for Mineral Resources. Further, first production by the end of September 2022 at the MARBL Lithium JV is one year earlier than expected.

The broker currently assumes full production capacity is reached by the end of FY27. The Outperform rating and $72 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $39.38 Difference: $32.62
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.00, suggesting upside of 32.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 281.00 cents and EPS of 616.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 453.5, implying annual growth of -32.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 213.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 247.00 cents and EPS of 552.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 382.1, implying annual growth of -15.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 174.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MP1  MEGAPORT LIMITED

Cloud services

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Overnight Price: $17.55

Morgans rates MP1 as Hold (3) -

Megaport's September-quarter report pleased Morgans, outpacing the broker on some metrics.

The company's annual recurring revenue has breached $100m, a major milestone achieved through direct sales.

The broker expects sales to accelerate in the March quarter and beyond given recent investment in the commercial offering, product and engineering. 

While long term bulls, Morgans retains a Hold rating, hoping to secure a better opportunity over the year. Target price is steady at $17.71.

Target price is $17.71 Current Price is $17.55 Difference: $0.16
If MP1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.68, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 117.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -18.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 175.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MQG  MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $199.06

Citi rates MQG as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi upgrades to Neutral from Sell and raises the target to $200 from $153. The broker has also upgraded earnings forecasts by 8-10% out to FY24, to reflect a combination of lower FX assumptions and higher commodity revenue.

The broker expects the continued volatility in energy markets will benefit the commodities division. First half results are due on October 29.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $199.06 Difference: $0.94
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.62, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 550.00 cents and EPS of 961.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 946.4, implying annual growth of 12.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 562.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 520.00 cents and EPS of 890.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 952.8, implying annual growth of 0.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 584.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate rating though raises its target price for Macquarie Group to $207 from $190. The analyst's earnings upgrades now places the broker around 3% above consensus forecasts, as it considers the FY22 net profit consensus is conservative.

Ord Minnett's forecast is for a FY22 net profit of $3.56bn, up 18% on FY21. The forecast has been lifted on higher M&A income, commodities income and mortgage growth.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $207.00 Current Price is $199.06 Difference: $7.94
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.62, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 540.00 cents and EPS of 966.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 946.4, implying annual growth of 12.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 562.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 580.00 cents and EPS of 978.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 952.8, implying annual growth of 0.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 584.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $28.86

Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects, when the bank reports its results on November 9, net interest margins of 1.73% for the year and zero bad debt charges in the fourth quarter.

The broker revises sector assumptions and lowers bad debt forecasts while upgrading earnings forecasts by 2-5% across FY21-23. Neutral rating and $26.75 target unchanged.

Target price is $26.75 Current Price is $28.86 Difference: minus $2.11 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.19, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 188.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.4, implying annual growth of 136.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 124.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 198.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 132.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEA  NEARMAP LIMITED

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $2.24

Citi rates NEA as Neutral (3) -

Nearmap is expanding its offering and developing specific solutions, emerging as an insight/solutions provider from just a data provider.

Citi suspects this could reduce customer churn and considers it a potential catalyst ahead of the trading update at the AGM.

The Neutral/High Risk rating is retained because of risks associated with the legal case. Target is $2.30.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.06
If NEA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.57, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 58.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 280.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1080.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORE  OROCOBRE LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $9.15

Citi rates ORE as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Orocobre can leverage the lithium market in the near term via Mount Cattlin spodumene as well as participate in the long-term structural growth via its advanced stage development program.

Olaroz was weaker than expected in the September quarter while Mount Cattlin was better. Orocobre was affected by an increase in gas prices and pandemic-related costs.

Citi revises FY22-23 earnings up by 2-7% largely on because of better price guidance and increased volume guidance for Mount Cattlin. Buy rating is reiterated. Target is $11.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.15 Difference: $1.85
If ORE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.15, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of -5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates ORE as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse considers the September quarter production "mixed". Mount Cattlin production guidance for 2021 is revised up to 210-220,000t and unit cost guidance lowered to US$390-420/t.

A strong performance at Mount Cattlin was offset by soft sales volumes. The broker envisages material upside risk to estimates over the next six months as contract price negotiations appear to be converging to higher spot prices.

Credit Suisse retains an Underperform rating on valuation grounds and raises the target to $8.70 from $8.60.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $9.15 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.15, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of -5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates ORE as Outperform (1) -

Orocobre's first quarter result was mixed with strong volumes at Mount Cattlin offset by higher costs at Olaroz. Macquarie notes this is the first time production has been declared for all assets post the merger with Galaxy Resources.

The company has upgraded price and volume guidance for Mount Cattlin for 2021. Incorporating updated pricing and guidance means a 7% lift to Macquarie's FY22 forecasts and FY23 is also upgraded by 3%.

Meanwhile, projects are progressing and a maiden reserve for James Bay is due at the end of the year.

Outperformed maintained. Target rises to $12.00 from $11.80.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.15 Difference: $2.85
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.15, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of -5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates ORE as Equal-weight (3) -

In the wake of Orocobre's September quarter result and updated December quarter guidance, Morgan Stanley raises its target price to $8.65 from $8.45. Equal-weight maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

The analyst points out that within the guidance, December quarter pricing and shipments are lower versus the broker's expectation, driven by inflation and congestion.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $9.15 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.15, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 305.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of -5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates ORE as Buy (1) -

Follwoing a first quarter production update by Orocobre, Ord Minnett lowers near-term earnings estimates due to reduced sales volumes
at Olaroz. The analyst retains the Buy rating and notes the company remains a key pick in the lithium sector.

The analyst points out the sales and cost performance at Mt Cattlin were very strong, resulting in positive revisions to guidance. The target price of $10.40 is unchanged.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $9.15 Difference: $1.25
If ORE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.15, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of -5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $5.18

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley oil strategists expect higher LNG prices and returns for Australian energy companies, as demand for LNG is likely to exceed current expectations. The broker's long-term LNG price forecast rises nearly 30%, to US$10/mmbtu.

The broker feels M&A will likely be a key driver of value, as companies look to divest equity ownership in LNG projects and prepare for expansion. Higher JKM LNG forecasts and a higher long-term Brent oil price forecast (US$70/bbl) are used.

After updating for the above, the analyst raises Origin Energy's target price to $5.75 from $5.05. Equal-weight retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $0.57
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.25, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.90 cents and EPS of 27.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 33.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of 22.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $4.33

Morgan Stanley rates OSH as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley oil strategists expect higher LNG prices and returns for Australian energy companies, as demand for LNG is likely to exceed current expectations. The broker's long-term LNG price forecast rises nearly 30% to US$10/mmbtu.

The broker feels M&A will likely be a key driver of value, as companies look to divest equity ownership in LNG projects and prepare for expansion. Higher JKM LNG forecasts and a higher long-term Brent oil price forecast (US$70/bbl) are used.

After updating for the above, the analyst raises Oil Search's target price to $5.50 from $4.50 and retains the Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.33 Difference: $1.17
If OSH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.42 cents and EPS of 31.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.29 cents and EPS of 51.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of 34.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL  OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Copper

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Overnight Price: $24.95

Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Equal-weight (3) -

Following September quarter results for Oz Minerals, Morgan Stanley lowers its target price to $23.20 from $23.50. This comes as copper grades at Carrapateena were lower and mining grades and tonnages were also lower at Prominent Hill.

The Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $24.95 Difference: minus $1.75 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.83, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 154.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.9, implying annual growth of 151.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 181.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.0, implying annual growth of 2.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM  ST. BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $1.54

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates SBM as Hold (3) -

After a first glance at St Barbara's Q1 results, Ord Minnett assesses they are slightly better than the broker's expectations. Production was a 12% beat with higher grades at Gwalia more than offsetting lower grades out of Atlantic due to an increased stockpile contribution.

This also led to led to a 10% beat for all-in sustaining costs (AISC) though the analyst points out that cash was a miss due to a combination of lower gold sales, investments, working capital and higher corporate costs. FY22 guidance appears unchanged to the broker.

The Hold rating and $1.50 target price are maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDF  STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $4.79

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

FY22 guidance has been reaffirmed at underlying EBITA of $320-330m. Macquarie notes underwriting agencies have achieved strong organic growth.

The broker believes upside risk exists to estimates for FY22 and particularly FY23, while factoring in the company executing on the potential $26m of M&A.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $5.30 target.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.51
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 20.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 20.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 8.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SDF as Accumulate (2) -

Following a trading update at Steadfast Group's AGM, Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate rating and $5.32 target price. FY22 earnings (EBITA) guidance was unchanged and implies to the broker growth of 24% on FY21.

First quarter earnings are 13.4% ahead of the same period last year, and the analyst expects this growth run rate to improve further. This because the Coverforce acquisition was only completed part-way through Q1. Additional small acquisitions are also planned.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.32 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.53
If SDF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 20.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 8.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIQ  SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $9.34

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates SIQ as Accumulate (2) -

SmartGroup Corp has announced the cessation of talks on the non-binding indicative offer from US private equity firm TPG Global and Potential Capital (consortium) for $10.35. This comes as the offer was reduced to $9.25, with no stated reasons.

In an initial reaction, Ord Minnett expects some share price weakness, given shares were trading below $8 prior to the bid. The broker retains its Accumulate rating and $9.85 target price, and as per standard practice, will be reviewing both.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $9.85 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: $0.51
If SIQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.23, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 46.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.7, implying annual growth of 59.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 55.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.1, implying annual growth of 8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLA  SILK LASER AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $4.91

UPDATED

Ord Minnett rates SLA as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett lowers its rating for Silk Laser Australia to Accumulate from Buy, after a strong recent run in the share price. The target price rises to $5.15 from $4.85, after the September quarter was 5% ahead of the broker's expectations.

The analyst notes the company continues to self-fund growth towards its 150-clinic target from 118. 

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: $0.24
If SLA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.07.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.35.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $7.04

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley oil strategists expect higher LNG prices and returns for Australian energy companies, as demand for LNG is likely to exceed current expectations. The broker's long-term LNG price forecast rises nearly 30% to US$10/mmbtu.

The broker feels M&A will likely be a key driver of value, as companies look to divest equity ownership in LNG projects and prepare for expansion. Higher JKM LNG forecasts and a higher long-term Brent oil price forecast (US$70/bbl) are used.

In particular the broker points to Santos, which has significant LNG exposure, and lifts its target price to $10.20 from $8.60. The Overweight rating is unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $7.04 Difference: $3.16
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.34, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.17 cents and EPS of 55.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 24.28 cents and EPS of 87.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.5, implying annual growth of 32.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STX  STRIKE ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $0.18

Macquarie rates STX as Outperform (1) -

Strike Energy reported closing cash of $52m at the end of the first quarter. Macquarie notes this is sufficient to get it through the current drilling program until $75m in project finance becomes available to fund West Erregulla surface development.

The broker believes the market is waiting for the company to prove South Erregulla, Project Haber and geothermal and, given some recent disappointments, believes this is understandable.

A successful outcome and South Erregulla should improve sentiment markedly, Macquarie adds. Outperform rating and $0.50 target retained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.32
If STX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 178% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.71.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL  TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $13.75

UPDATED

Morgans rates TCL as Add (1) -

Transurban Group's first-quarter data reveals continued weak traffic (as expected given lockdowns and former management guidance).

Morgans downgrades FY21 earnings -1% given a traffic recovery is unlikely to outpace higher corporate costs (related to SaaS accounting). 

Issuance for the WestConnex acquisition and budget overruns for the West Gate Tunnel Project costs may also weigh.

FY22 earnings -7% and FY23-24 earnings -1% to -2%. Dividend is downgraded 12% to 34c per share.

Target price eases to $14.79 from $14.82.

Add rating retained to reflect a potential total shareholder return of 10% including a 2.5% cash yield, with quarterly CPI increases a potential catalyst.

Target price is $14.79 Current Price is $13.75 Difference: $1.04
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.97, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1375.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 169.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 72.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 165.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 63.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC  WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks

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Overnight Price: $25.74

Citi rates WBC as Buy (1) -

Citi expects Westpac will announce a $5bn off market buyback at the upcoming result on November 1. Management had previously deferred this to address capital management.

Buy rating and $30 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $25.74 Difference: $4.26
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.37, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 136.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.6, implying annual growth of 125.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 176.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.1, implying annual growth of 25.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES  WESFARMERS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $57.31

Credit Suisse rates WES as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse upgrades forecasts following the AGM. A normalisation of expenditure in retail, i.e. Bunnings and Officeworks, could weigh on sentiment over the short term yet the expansion of new and other businesses is where the growth opportunity lies, in the broker's view.

Credit Suisse assesses growth initiatives are developing nicely, particularly Mount Holland lithium, with first sales expected in FY24, the expansion of ammonia production and expansion into adjacencies for the home improvement segments.

The Neutral rating is retained. Target is raised to $60.38 from $59.91.

Target price is $60.38 Current Price is $57.31 Difference: $3.07
If WES meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.82, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 156.00 cents and EPS of 191.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.6, implying annual growth of -5.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 201.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 164.00 cents and EPS of 200.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 213.9, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 180.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Z1P  ZIP CO LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $6.96

UBS rates Z1P as Sell (5) -

UBS had always suspected that the "no surcharge" rules of the BNPL sector would eventually be prohibited. The Payments System Board has concluded that it would be the public interest if these rules were removed so that merchants can apply a surcharge to payments if they wish.

The broker considers this an incrementally negative development for Zip, noting the company is more reliant on consumer fees to fund its economics.

UBS retains a Sell rating and $5.40 target.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $6.96 Difference: minus $1.56 (current price is over target).
If Z1P meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.31, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 69.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -18.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ABB Aussie Broadband $4.89 Ord Minnett 5.60 5.50 1.82%
AZJ Aurizon Holdings $3.52 Macquarie N/A 4.27 -100.00%
BPT Beach Energy $1.46 Morgan Stanley 1.70 1.40 21.43%
BSL BlueScope Steel $20.94 Ord Minnett 33.00 35.00 -5.71%
CRW Cashrewards $1.11 Ord Minnett 1.30 2.00 -35.00%
CWY Cleanaway Waste Management $2.86 Macquarie 3.20 3.15 1.59%
EVT Event Hospitality & Entertainment $15.81 Citi 18.65 17.70 5.37%
HMC HomeCo $8.17 Credit Suisse 7.53 5.87 28.28%
IAG Insurance Australia $5.04 Morgans 5.64 5.65 -0.18%
KAR Karoon Energy $1.76 Morgan Stanley 2.10 1.85 13.51%
MIN Mineral Resources $42.91 Macquarie 72.00 80.00 -10.00%
MQG Macquarie Group $200.47 Citi 200.00 153.00 30.72%
Ord Minnett 207.00 190.00 8.95%
NEA Nearmap $2.16 Citi 2.30 2.35 -2.13%
ORE Orocobre $9.17 Citi 11.00 10.50 4.76%
Credit Suisse 8.70 6.32 37.66%
Macquarie 12.00 11.80 1.69%
Morgan Stanley 8.65 8.50 1.76%
ORG Origin Energy $5.38 Morgan Stanley 5.75 5.05 13.86%
OSH Oil Search $4.48 Morgan Stanley 5.50 4.50 22.22%
OZL OZ Minerals $25.36 Morgan Stanley 23.20 23.50 -1.28%
SIQ Smartgroup Corp $8.35 Ord Minnett 9.85 9.95 -1.01%
SLA Silk Laser Australia $4.90 Ord Minnett 5.15 4.85 6.19%
STO Santos $7.31 Morgan Stanley 10.20 8.60 18.60%
TCL Transurban Group $13.73 Morgans 14.79 14.82 -0.20%
WES Wesfarmers $57.75 Credit Suisse 60.38 59.91 0.78%
Summaries
360 Life360 Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $9.47
ABB Aussie Broadband Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.92
ANZ ANZ Bank Sell - Citi Overnight Price $28.21
APT Afterpay No Rating - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $126.00
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $126.00
AZJ Aurizon Holdings No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.65
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.65
BPT Beach Energy Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.38
BSL BlueScope Steel Buy - Citi Overnight Price $20.64
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $20.64
CRW Cashrewards Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.10
CWY Cleanaway Waste Management Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.84
EVT Event Hospitality & Entertainment Buy - Citi Overnight Price $15.99
FCL Fineos Corp Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.90
HMC HomeCo Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $7.90
HUM Humm Group Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.91
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $0.91
IAG Insurance Australia Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.11
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $5.11
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.11
KAR Karoon Energy Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.65
MGX Mount Gibson Iron Buy - Citi Overnight Price $0.45
MIN Mineral Resources Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $39.38
MP1 Megaport Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $17.55
MQG Macquarie Group Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi Overnight Price $199.06
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $199.06
NAB National Australia Bank Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $28.86
NEA Nearmap Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $2.24
ORE Orocobre Buy - Citi Overnight Price $9.15
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $9.15
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $9.15
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $9.15
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.15
ORG Origin Energy Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.18
OSH Oil Search Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.33
OZL OZ Minerals Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $24.95
SBM St. Barbara Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.54
SDF Steadfast Group Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.79
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.79
SIQ Smartgroup Corp Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.34
SLA Silk Laser Australia Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.91
STO Santos Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $7.04
STX Strike Energy Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.18
TCL Transurban Group Add - Morgans Overnight Price $13.75
WBC Westpac Banking Buy - Citi Overnight Price $25.74
WES Wesfarmers Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $57.31
Z1P Zip Co Sell - UBS Overnight Price $6.96
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

21

2. Accumulate

6

3. Hold

15

5. Sell

3

Monday 25 October 2021

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.