Australian Broker Call

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November 06, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
ING - Inghams Group Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
NAB - National Australia Bank Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
SIQ - Smartgroup Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
TWE - Treasury Wine Estates Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $31.91

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

The broker has analysed the earnings result of Aristocrat Leisure's US rival SciGames to provide a read-through, which indicated a recovery phase for casinos and land-based gaming.

The conclusion is more potential upside for Aristocrat as a U-shaped recovery appears to be playing out despite the risk of further restrictions given the US second wave. Buy and $34.60 target retained.

Target price is $34.60 Current Price is $31.91 Difference: $2.69
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.89, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 67.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.0, implying annual growth of -37.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 111.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.2, implying annual growth of 58.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMC  AMCOR LIMITED

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $15.44

Citi rates AMC as Buy (1) -

In an initial response to today's quarterly results release by Amcor, Citi analysts point out the bottom line turned out better than consensus, and better than Citi's estimate too.

The analysts highlight the result was carried by strong volume growth in the Americas and APAC, plus margins increased significantly in Flexibles, helped by Bemis synergies.

Further adding to the positive newsflow, Amcor has announced a share buyback and increased its dividend, underlying management’s confidence, comments the broker.

Citi analysts are anticipating modest consensus EPS upgrades post today's update.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $15.44 Difference: $1.66
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.87, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 102.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 123.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.5, implying annual growth of 8.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX  ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $81.61

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Lighten (4) -

ASX's monthly activity report for August shows better-than-forecast listings and capital raisings versus Ord Minnett's assumptions. Cash market trends were elevated but fell slightly short of the broker's expectations.

Ord Minnett sees FY20 as a peak year for the company's earnings, hinting at earnings pressure in FY21.

Led mainly by suppressed derivative volumes and lower cash market trading, Ord Minnett maintains its Lighten rating. The target is trimmed to $77.28 from $77.91.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $77.28 Current Price is $81.61 Difference: minus $4.33 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $72.73, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 229.00 cents and EPS of 255.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 249.1, implying annual growth of -3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 226.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 241.00 cents and EPS of 267.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 255.8, implying annual growth of 2.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 232.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.9.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCP  CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $19.15

Morgans rates CCP as Add (1) -

Credit Corp’s first quarter result was strong overall, according to Morgans, with strong cash collection and a rebound in lending demand.

Compared to the previous corresponding period total collections were up 16%, Aust/NZ collections were up 4% and US collections were up 34%.

The company reaffirmed all guidance metrics, including EPS of 89-112cps, DPS 45-55cps, and profit (NPAT) of $60-75m.

Purchase of debt ledgers (PDL) is tracking reasonably notes the broker, with the return of two Australian sellers.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target is decreased to $21.20 from $21.25.

Target price is $21.20 Current Price is $19.15 Difference: $2.05
If CCP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.90, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 101.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.7, implying annual growth of 279.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 110.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.6, implying annual growth of 17.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $301.63

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS reviews third quarter results for a range of international peers and suppliers.

Plasma consumables supplier, Haemonetics, reported North America organic plasma revenue down -32.3% versus the previous corresponding period. The broker believes this is a relatively good proxy for collection volumes, albeit with a potential lag. 

Haemonetics noted they have seen an increase in collection volume as they exited September and during October. However, UBS believes with ongoing covid-19 case numbers in the US, raw plasma supply disruption may be evident for an extended period of time.

Other takeaways included the recombinant FIX market remains competitive with Alprolix growing strongly in the US, while HPV royalties are tracking in line with forecast. Also, Sanofi and GSK are both experiencing very strong flu demand in the northern hemisphere.

UBS notes a range of potential mitigations (for current plasma collections and cost pressures) across CSL group that should assist in underpinning (modest) FY21 earnings growth. These include normalised albumin sales in China and a shift to SCIG vs IVIG.

Additionally, the broker sees strong flu vaccine demand. The Buy rating and target price of $346 are unchanged.

Target price is $346.00 Current Price is $301.63 Difference: $44.37
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $309.96, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 302.01 cents and EPS of 709.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 689.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 302.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.7.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 360.65 cents and EPS of 815.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 769.9, implying annual growth of 11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 339.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTD  CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $16.63

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

Looking at Flight Centre's forecast which expects an earlier rebound in the corporate travel segment than in leisure, Morgan Stanley prefers Corporate Travel Management over Webjet ((WEB)).

The broker considers Corporate Travel 's pathway to profitability clearer than Webjet's. Also, the former is less reliant on vaccines and international borders re-openings.

Corporate Travel's Australia and New Zealand business is doing better than Webjet's online travel agency (OTA) business. The broker highlights Corporate Travel's business mix contains a higher proportion of essential services and domestic travel and is more insulated.

Target is $21.50. Overweight rating reiterated. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $16.63 Difference: $4.87
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.36, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 127.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 380.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of 1170.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR  DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $4.25

UBS rates DRR as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Deterra Royalties listed on the ASX on October 23, 2020, after demerging from Iluka Resources ((ILU)). Iluka retained a 20% shareholding in the company.

The company holds six royalty streams, with the Mining Area C (MAC) royalty over BHP Group's ((BHP)) MAC tenements the only active royalty that contributes revenue to the company.

Beginning trading with minimal net debt (around $15m), the strategy is to grow and diversify the royalty portfolio through value accretive investments over time. 

UBS explains the company offers exposure to iron ore without the operating and capital cost exposure, while growth in iron ore volumes from MAC offsets the forecast decline in price.

The broker initiates coverage with a Buy rating and $4.80ps price target.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: $0.55
If DRR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.7.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 42.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHE  ESTIA HEALTH LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors

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Overnight Price: $1.30

UBS rates EHE as Neutral (3) -

Estia Health provided a first quarter trading update at its AGM, highlighting to UBS the extent of covid-19 pandemic headwinds.

Key takeaways for the broker included average occupancy of 91.3%, including Victoria at 86.8% and other states at 93.7%. Also, revenue of $159m was considered negatively impacted by weaker occupancy and lower resident revenues in Victoria.

Overall the analyst expects occupancy to recover through FY21 (particularly in Victoria) and expects incremental covid-19 costs to ease from here. The company is considered a quality operator and well placed to emerge from FY21 and the Royal Commission in a stronger position versus peers.

The Neutral rating and target price of $1.55 are unchanged.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.25
If EHE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.2, implying annual growth of 36.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT  FLIGHT CENTRE LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $13.82

Citi rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Flight Centre's revenues are gradually improving, led by corporate travel revenue and limited liquidity drawdown during the September quarter.

Citi expects demand for domestic leisure activities will be high once the Victorian and Queensland borders re-open. Flight Centre expects corporate travel to return to profitability by late FY21, while Leisure is expected to be profitable in FY22.

Preferring to remain cautious given the rising covid-19 cases in the US, Citi retains a Neutral rating with a target of $14.10.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $0.28
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 155.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -105.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 50.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

With ample liquidity, better cost management and a continuing recovery in revenue, Credit Suisse considers Flight Centre's update to be incrementally positive.

With 60% of corporate travel expenditure generated from domestic and regional travel, the broker thinks there is more scope for improvement with easing domestic travel restrictions.

Leisure is likely to take longer to recover given its 70% reliance on international travel. Neutral rating is retained with the target declining slightly to $15.29 from $15.31.

Target price is $15.29 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $1.47
If FLT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 104.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -105.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.69 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates FLT as Overweight (1) -

Flight Centre's total liquidity at September end of $1.029bn gives the travel agency a liquidity runway to March 2022, estimates Morgan Stanley.

At its AGM, Flight Centre noted improving global activity to 12% in September from 7% in July with the most improvement seen in corporate travel in China and Canada. Leisure improved to 7% from 3%.  

Morgan Stanley assesses Flight Centre to be leveraged to a recovery in global travel. The pathway to this remains uncertain with rising covid cases in Europe and North America.

Looking at the ample liquidity, necessary in these times, Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating with a target of $15. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $1.18
If FLT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of minus 76.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -105.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Flight Centre's AGM update implied a modest sales recovery, in-line with UBS, with revenue to September now tracking at around 12% of pre-covid-19 levels.

The broker's forecasts imply group profitability by around the first half FY22.

The analyst highlights the corporate segment was strong with greater than US$500m in new wins during FY21.

Overall, UBS considers uncertainty is high and business risks are elevated (around 50% stores closed). However, the broker believes a strong brand and ample liquidity makes the company well placed to participate in a recovery.

The Buy rating and target price of $14.50 are unchanged.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $0.68
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 154.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -105.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG  GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $19.63

Credit Suisse rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

Goodman Group reiterated FY21 earnings guidance of 9% but Credit Suisse expects growth to be more than 10%.

In the first quarter, the group's work in progress (WIP) increased to $7.3bn, in line with the broker's forecast. The global demand for logistics real estate has prompted the group to expect the WIP to grow to $8.bn in the second half.

Credit Suisse notes when compared to its REIT sector peers in Australia, the group is trading on an elevated earnings multiple.

While attracted to the group's self-funding growth strategy, Credit Suisse reaffirms its Neutral rating with the target price increasing to $19.84 from $17.34.

Target price is $19.84 Current Price is $19.63 Difference: $0.21
If GMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.39, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of -22.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Goodman Group's quarterly update notes work in progress at $7.3bn, slightly ahead of the company's guidance of $7bn in the first half. The group expects more to follow in the remainder of the year.

With yields higher than last year, Morgan Stanley feels Goodman Group's focus on strong location seems to be paying off. Occupancy went up to 97.8% from 97.5%.

Overall, the broker is pleased with the update and retains its Overweight rating. Target is $20.90. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $20.90 Current Price is $19.63 Difference: $1.27
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.39, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 64.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of -22.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 33.40 cents and EPS of 71.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates GMG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses the first-quarter of the Goodman Group was strong. The group's development workbook saw a jump in the quarter, expected to increase further in FY21.

While growth in external assets under management was modest, the broker believes it will accelerate as development completions pick up. 

The company reaffirmed its 9% earnings growth forecast. Ord Minnett considers this forecast too conservative and estimates growth of 12%. Overall, earnings growth is expected to remain strong over FY21-23 driven by a sharp uptick in development volume.

Hold rating is retained with a target of $19.75.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $19.75 Current Price is $19.63 Difference: $0.12
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.39, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of -22.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

A first quarter update by Goodman Group shows to UBS stable operating metrics as development work in progress (WIP) grows strongly.

The broker identifies the driver of the growth in WIP is Asia (80% of WIP) and the expectation is that China/HK/Japan are a material driver of the increased WIP.

Development yields at 6.7% are considered by the analyst as very attractive versus transactional capitalisation rates.

The Neutral rating and price target of $17.50 are unchanged.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $19.63 Difference: minus $2.13 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.39, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of -22.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.8.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.80 cents and EPS of 71.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ING  INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $3.31

Citi rates ING as Buy (1) -

Inghams Group noted a recovery in demand during the September quarter. While the company announced a new dividend policy of 60-80% payout, the broker prefers to retain its dividend forecast.

The company saw strong volume growth in the first quarter. The broker notes conditions are improving for Inghams Group and expects feed cost headwinds will fade in the second half.   

The prospect of better than expected earnings growth in FY21 prompts Citi to retain its Buy rating with a target price of $3.70.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.39
If ING meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of 94.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 26.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 19.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates ING as Equal-weight (3) -

The first quarter saw core poultry volumes up 6.3%, beating Morgan Stanley's forecast by 2%. Further, Inghams Group noted a decrease in inventory levels in the first 17 weeks of FY21.

Morgan Stanley notes there was no update on the group's channel mix and margins. Even so, the broker expects the update will be well received by the market.

Equal-weight rating with a target of $3.50. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.19
If ING meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of 94.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 21.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 19.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates ING as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

A recovery in Inghams Group's first quarter core poultry sales volumes was stronger than Morgans expected and has supported a reduction in the group’s inventory build.

While commentary on profitability was limited, the broker expects the first quarter earnings (EBITDA) figure has improved sequentially on the prior quarter. Feed costs are still expected to reduce from the fourth quarter 2021.

Despite a slight accounting induced dividend policy change, the analyst doesn't expect the quantum of the FY21 dividend will change.

Morgans lifts earnings forecasts in FY22 and FY23 by 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively. The broker expects earnings to normalise and for it to benefit from a full year of lower grain prices.

The target price is increased to $3.76 from $3.57 and the rating is increased to Add from Hold.

Target price is $3.76 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.45
If ING meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of 94.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 19.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ING as Neutral (3) -

The first quarter update for Inghams Group was strong on volumes and feed commentary, but little colour was provided around revenue, warns UBS. 

The revised dividend policy implies DPS cuts to the broker.

Takeaways for the analyst include recovering volumes, but it's considered this growth has been assisted by inventory clearance.

UBS upgrades FY21-23 EPS forecasts to reflect the stronger volume update, despite the above mentioned concerns around limited pricing (and therefore revenue) disclosures. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $3.30 are unchanged.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If ING meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of 94.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 19.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MQG  MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $132.45

Citi rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie Group's half-yearly performance, released earlier today, marks a beat on market consensus and on Citi's forecasts, the broker reports in an initial response.

Compositionally, the analysts believe revenues were 4-5% better than expectations, despite a higher than expected loan impairment of -$447m, but with an offset in higher costs.

Coming fresh on top of a solid share price rally, the analysts suggest investors will be looking to commentary for a resumption of deal flow and asset realisations, as well as the deployment of surplus capital.

No concrete guidance was provided. Neutral. Target $125.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $132.45 Difference: minus $7.45 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $128.32, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 380.00 cents and EPS of 632.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 629.1, implying annual growth of -20.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 387.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 560.00 cents and EPS of 726.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 793.8, implying annual growth of 26.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 566.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Upon initial assessment, Macquarie Group's half-yearly update surprised Ord Minnett by some 3%, with the analysts pointing out the result was a slight beat of Macquarie's own guidance.

Quality-wise, however, the analysts believe the result was weaker than anticipated, as performance fees/gains on sale proved above forecast but investment impairments proved lower-than-forecast.

Ord Minnett doesn't seem to mind, pointing out instead its forecasts are near the top of market consensus, implying others might have to lift theirs post today's update.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $132.45 Difference: minus $2.45 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $128.32, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 410.00 cents and EPS of 658.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 629.1, implying annual growth of -20.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 387.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 580.00 cents and EPS of 823.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 793.8, implying annual growth of 26.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 566.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MVF  MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $0.62

Morgans rates MVF as Add (1) -

Released Medicare data show the first quarter fresh cycles numbers are up 23.4% on the previous corresponding period.

This reflects pent up demand since elective procedures recommenced in late April, highlights Morgans. It also illustrates limitations on overseas travel keeping doctors and patients at home.

The broker's channel checks suggest the expectations are for growth in cycle numbers to continue through to Christmas. It's considered first half results due in February 2021 will be strong.

Morgans makes no changes to forecasts. The Add rating and target price of $0.65 are unchanged.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.03
If MVF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.27.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.30 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.19.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $19.31

Citi rates NAB as Buy (1) -

National Bank's result missed the broker due to a surprisingly large top-up of loan loss provisions. However, it appears the bank has pulled forward virus-related provisions into the current year, providing for the most conservative stance among peers.

The broker has thus lowered its FY21/22 loan-loss expense forecasts and also lowered risk assumptions given improving credit quality. NAB remains one of the better performers in the sector, the broker believes, on relative revenue growth and sound cost control.

Buy and $23.50 target retained. NAB is the broker's top pick

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: $4.19
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 105.00 cents and EPS of 163.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 174.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.3, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

National Australia Bank's FY20 result showed a strong capital position with the CET1 ratio at 11.8%, observes Credit Suisse.

The broker likes the bank's margin management and provision build-up. On the flip side, negative loan growth and a subdued credit growth outlook disappointed the broker. 

Post the FY20 result, Credit Suisse has upgraded its FY21-22 earnings forecasts. The broker finds the bank's loan growth expectations conservative and expects growth of 3% in FY21.

Outperform retained along with the target rising to $22 from $21.30.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: $2.69
If NAB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 146.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 106.00 cents and EPS of 163.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.3, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

National Australia Bank's underlying cash profit was about -19% below Morgan Stanley's forecast in the second half. Revenue and expenses were weaker than expected. Total loans fell -3.5%.

Loan losses were -$1,601m, higher than expected, and comprised a covid-19 overlay of -$1,028m. A dividend of 30c was declared, in-line with the broker. The bank expects subdued loan growth in FY21 with slightly higher costs.

While Morgan Stanley believes in the bank's strategy and execution, a challenging operating environment makes growth difficult. Believing the risks are skewed to the downside, the broker reduces its earnings forecasts by circa -3-4% for FY21-22. 

Equal-weight rating. Target is $17.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: minus $1.81 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 85.00 cents and EPS of 116.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 105.00 cents and EPS of 134.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.3, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates NAB as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

The FY20 cash earnings (from continuing operations) for National Australia Bank were two percent less than Morgans expected, largely due to a higher-than-expected credit impairment charge.

The charge was higher because the bank significantly bolstered its collective provision (CP) to credit risk weighted assets (CRWA) coverage.

The broker highlights second half revenue was supported by a strong performance in the markets and treasury divisions.

A final dividend of 30cps fully franked was declared, which is better than the broker's expectation of 28cps.

Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add partly due to a slight reduction in target price to $20 from $20.50, but largely due to share price strength over the last month.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: $0.69
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 90.00 cents and EPS of 180.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 131.00 cents and EPS of 187.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.3, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates NAB as Accumulate (2) -

National Australia Bank reported a cash net profit of $3.71bn in FY20, in line with Ord Minnett’s $3.72bn albeit -27.2% versus last year. A final dividend of 30c was declared, ahead of the broker's 25c forecast, taking the full-year dividend to 65c per share.

Even as the revenue was more than expected, Ord Minnett notes the bank is not immune to the pressures facing the broader banking industry.

The SME book is likely to drive higher credit costs, assesses the broker but considers the risk has already been factored into the share price.

Noting the bank remains its key preference among the major banks, Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate recommendation with the target price falling to $20.80 from $20.90. 

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $20.80 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: $1.49
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 137.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 110.00 cents and EPS of 159.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.3, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates NAB as Buy (1) -

National Australia Bank delivered a solid result for the current environment in the opinion of UBS.

Net interest margins (NIM) beat the broker's expectations, falling just three basis points (ex Mkts) and there was considered to be a big bounce in trading income from a weak first half. Credit Charges were slightly higher than the analyst expected.

UBS believes the bank is well prepared for the recession and offers potential growth if it increases lending to business.

The broker upgrades the basic EPS estimate by 37% in FY21, given lower anticipated credit losses and a higher NIM starting point. Basic EPS forecasts are also upgraded by 8% in FY22 and 6% in FY23, given higher assumed NIM and business loan growth.

The Buy rating and target price of $20.50 are unchanged.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: $1.19
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 85.00 cents and EPS of 152.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 110.00 cents and EPS of 151.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.3, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHF  NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $4.35

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

nib Holdings' September quarter noted better Australian residents health insurance (ARHI) trends. International inbound health insurance (IIHI) sales were weaker with a net contraction in policies of -6,825k as opposed to last year's growth of 6,922.

While Morgan Stanley finds it hard to draw any solid conclusion from the short period, the broker concedes growth in ARHI is encouraging with lower lapses than pre-pandemic.

The insurer is targeting net organic policyholder growth of 2-3% in FY21.

Equal-weight rating with a target of $4.75. Industry view: In-line. 

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $0.4
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.90 cents and EPS of 22.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 33.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.55 cents and EPS of 25.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates NHF as Accumulate (2) -

nib Holdings noted good volume trends in the first quarter of FY21 in the Australian Residents Health Insurance (ARHI) segment. While New Zealand volumes rose, the international inbound health insurance (IIHI) business was weaker than expected.

On the bright side, Ord Minnett points to favourable claims trends and suggests there could be upside if trends continued in the first half.

Believing nib Holdings offers more potential upside versus peer Medibank Private ((MPL)), Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate rating with a target price of $5.95.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $1.6
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 33.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of 12.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $2.83

Morgans rates QUB as Reduce (5) -

An ACCC Container Stevedoring Monitoring Report (CSMP) provides insights into the industry relevant to Patrick. Patrick contributes $0.63cps to the Morgans target price for Qube Holdings. 

In a review of 2020, the CSMP noted the impact of economic weakness and covid-19 on industry volumes (-6.2% for Patrick). It also highlighted rapid growth in terminal access charges (TAC) levied on trucks and rail more than offset downward pressure on revenue.

The analyst makes no change to the group earnings (EBITDA) forecast.

The Reduce rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $2.52 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.52 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If QUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.9, implying annual growth of 13.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 25.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCG  SCENTRE GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.38

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Overweight (1) -

Scentre Group's third-quarter trading report noted increasing rent collections at 85% for the quarter versus 48% in the second quarter.

Morgan Stanley highlights the third-quarter figure includes deferred rents from previous months. Excluding the deferred rents, rent collection was at around 70%.

Leasing activity has come back to normal levels with lease structures in line with the pre-covid deals. On the flip side, occupancy showed a slight decline.

Overweight rating. Target is $2.65. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.27
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.70 cents and EPS of 14.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -33.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 28.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SCG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes Scentre Group's quarterly update reported improved cash collections, which increased to 85% in the third quarter and 96% in October. The broker thinks the group’s cash collections will be sector leading in retail.

The broker expects the net operating income (NOI) to stabilise at 90% of pre-covid NOI in FY21. The group will pay a second-half distribution, estimated at 10.7c per share by the broker, lifting to 16.5c in FY21.

Ord Minnett maintains its Hold recommendation with the target rising to $2.50 from $2.40.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.12
If SCG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -33.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 28.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SCG as Neutral (3) -

Scentre Group's third quarter result showed UBS a recovery in foot traffic and collections, while occupancy was lower.

The company indicated that 92% of stores are open and trading with more stores to open in coming weeks. Third quarter rent collection of 85% includes rent collected in prior periods - so the better metric to focus on is year-to-date collections of 77%, explains the broker.

The key notable metric for the analyst was occupancy of 98.4%, which deteriorated a further -40 basis points from June. UBS expects this to continue falling, leading to reduced leasing tension, lower rents and highlighting income uncertainty.

The Neutral rating and target price of $2.40 are unchanged.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.02
If SCG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 14.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -33.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 28.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIQ  SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LTD

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $5.37

Morgans rates SIQ as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

The third quarter update indicates to Morgans broader car purchasing demand is picking up, while cash generation and the balance sheet remain solid.

The broker points out trading showed improvement in the recovery run rate, in particular novated lease volume.

On a short-term view Morgans increases the rating to Add from Hold and expects recovery trends to continue to show improvement.

The target price is decreased to $6.55 from $6.75.

Target price is $6.55 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $1.18
If SIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.86, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.9, implying annual growth of -1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.8, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXY  SENEX ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $0.32

Citi rates SXY as Buy (1) -

Senex Energy's updated earnings guidance in the wake of the divestment of its Cooper Basin assets is in line with the broker's estimation. A -65% cut to FY21 profit forecasts is offset by the $87.5m cash injection on sale.

Adding in lower expected costs at Surat and a risked valuation for the newly acquired Bowen Basin exploration acreage leads to a target increase to 43c from 40c. Buy (High Risk) retained.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.11
If SXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.60 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of 314.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates SXY as Outperform (1) -

Senex Energy is targeting more than 10mmboe in annual production by FY25  versus the circa 3mmboe in FY21. This target is driven by the 24TJ/d expansion of operations at Roma North, Atlas and Roma North West.

While the company hasn't ruled out inorganic growth, Credit Suisse expects it to remain focused on developing the existing large coal seam gas reserves in Queensland.

The broker considers Senex Energy a coal-seam-gas (CSG) pure-play with its valuation leveraged to both oil and East Coast gas prices. There are upside catalysts including stable cash flows from its assets at Roma North and Atlas and improving gas prices.

Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $0.41 from $0.43. 

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.09
If SXY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 168.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of 314.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SXY as Buy (1) -

Senex Energy's investor briefing highlighted the potential growth within the company’s Queensland coal seam gas (CSG) assets. Management aims to reach 10 mmboe driven by growth from the Roma North and Atlas assets.

The broker believes the key to the outlook will depend on the gas markets. Senex remains Ord Minnett's preferred small-cap energy stock due to its attractive valuation and leverage to east coast gas prices.

Buy rating maintained with the target rising to $0.43 from $0.42.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.11
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of 314.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $7.96

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

While acknowledging the political risk, Citi believes Treasury Wine Estates has now fallen far enough for valuation to be appealing.

There is no evidence of alleged "dumping" of premium wines in China and Treasury Wine will be in a better position than most if tariffs target lower priced wines. Volumes are nevertheless likely to be held up for 4-6 weeks as China investigates.

Citi upgrades to Buy (High Risk) from Neutral given the stock price suggests the loss of Chinese trade, while warning it's still a binary risk. Target unchanged at 10.40.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $2.44
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.66, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 46.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 30.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of 21.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

According to an update by Treasury Wine, depletions across Asia and the US were strong in the first quarter. Asia depletions grew by 14% led by momentum in China while the US noted growth of 5% across all channels.

Morgan Stanley notes Treasury Wine remains well placed to recover from covid-19 related disruptions except for the investigation by China that remains an overhang.

Earnings growth forecasts lifted by about 5% due to the stronger than expected depletions.

Overweight rating maintained with a target of $11. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $3.04
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.66, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.30 cents and EPS of 49.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 30.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 41.30 cents and EPS of 63.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of 21.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Following forecast changes and applying lower multiples for heightened geopolitical risk, Morgans price target for Treasury Wine Estates  has fallen to $9.35 from $12.74.

Given a stronger than expected first quarter, the analyst increases FY21 profit (NPAT) by 2.6%.

Uncertainties impacting various areas of the company's business (particularly China) necessitates a continuation of the Hold rating, despite the broker praising the company's many attributes.

Morgans highlights key upside risks including if China doesn’t implement a tariff on Australian wine, covid-19 doesn’t impact earnings by the degree the broker has forecast and US market conditions improve quicker than expected.

Target price is $9.35 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $1.39
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.66, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 30.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of 21.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates' update for the first quarter was mostly positive, observes Ord Minnett. The broker is pleased with the progress in the US with growing volumes. 

China's investigation remains a significant risk yet the broker notes Treasury Wine has indicated some mitigation efforts. The broker remains concerned about the negative impact on earnings from a reallocation of wines from China to other markets.

Hold recommendation is reaffirmed with the target declining to $9 from $10.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $1.04
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.66, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 30.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of 21.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates TWE as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS believes the key driver for Treasury Wine Estates is China, with risks including tariffs from an anti-dumping investigation and potential retrospective tariff on imports. Additionally, there is speculation on a wine import suspension by 5 November.

Separately, the broker considers the first quarter update was incrementally positive, driving 2-3% EPS upgrades.

As the share price is factoring in an around -$4.40 valuation impact from tariffs, the analyst thinks the risk/reward is now favourable and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

The target price is decreased to $8.80 from $12.50.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $0.84
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.66, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.80 cents and EPS of 47.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 30.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 40.10 cents and EPS of 60.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of 21.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB  WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $4.17

UPDATED

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Equal-weight (3) -

Flight Centre expects an earlier rebound in the corporate travel segment than in leisure. 

Looking at this, Morgan Stanley prefers Corporate Travel Management over Webjet ((WEB)) since the broker considers the former's pathway to profitability clearer than the latter's.

Webjet's online travel agency (OTA) business is lagging Corporate Travel's Australia and New Zealand business. Also, Morgan Stanley notes Webjet is more reliant on vaccines and reopening of the international border.

Equal-weight with a target of $3.40. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.98, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of -1.30 cents and EPS of minus 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is - 0.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is -0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of -0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of -1.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is - 0.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ASX ASX Ltd $81.56 Ord Minnett 77.28 77.91 -0.81%
CCP Credit Corp $19.03 Morgans 21.20 21.25 -0.24%
FLT Flight Centre $14.01 Credit Suisse 15.29 15.31 -0.13%
GMG Goodman Grp $19.62 Credit Suisse 19.84 17.34 14.42%
Ord Minnett 19.75 18.10 9.12%
ING Inghams Group $3.26 Morgans 3.76 3.57 5.32%
NAB National Australia Bank $19.51 Credit Suisse 22.00 21.30 3.29%
Morgans 20.00 20.50 -2.44%
Ord Minnett 20.80 20.90 -0.48%
QUB Qube Holdings $2.87 Morgans 2.52 2.40 5.00%
SCG Scentre Group $2.39 Morgan Stanley 2.65 2.70 -1.85%
Ord Minnett 2.50 2.20 13.64%
SIQ Smartgroup $5.66 Morgans 6.55 6.75 -2.96%
SXY Senex Energy $0.32 Citi 0.43 0.40 7.50%
Credit Suisse 0.41 0.43 -4.65%
Ord Minnett 0.43 0.42 2.38%
TWE Treasury Wine Estates $8.75 Morgans 9.35 12.74 -26.61%
Ord Minnett 9.00 10.00 -10.00%
UBS 8.80 12.50 -29.60%
WEB Webjet $4.19 Morgan Stanley 3.40 3.00 13.33%
Summaries
ALL Aristocrat Leisure Buy - Citi Overnight Price $31.91
AMC Amcor Buy - Citi Overnight Price $15.44
ASX ASX Ltd Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $81.61
CCP Credit Corp Add - Morgans Overnight Price $19.15
CSL CSL Buy - UBS Overnight Price $301.63
CTD Corporate Travel Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $16.63
DRR DETERRA ROYALTIES Initiation of coverage with Buy - UBS Overnight Price $4.25
EHE Estia Health Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $1.30
FLT Flight Centre Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $13.82
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $13.82
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $13.82
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $13.82
GMG Goodman Grp Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $19.63
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $19.63
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $19.63
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $19.63
ING Inghams Group Buy - Citi Overnight Price $3.31
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.31
Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.31
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.31
MQG Macquarie Group Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $132.45
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $132.45
MVF Monash IVF Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.62
NAB National Australia Bank Buy - Citi Overnight Price $19.31
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $19.31
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $19.31
Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $19.31
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $19.31
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $19.31
NHF nib Holdings Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.35
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.35
QUB Qube Holdings Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $2.83
SCG Scentre Group Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.38
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.38
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.38
SIQ Smartgroup Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $5.37
SXY Senex Energy Buy - Citi Overnight Price $0.32
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.32
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.32
TWE Treasury Wine Estates Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $7.96
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $7.96
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $7.96
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.96
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $7.96
WEB Webjet Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.17
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

22

2. Accumulate

3

3. Hold

18

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

1

Friday 06 November 2020

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.