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Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 23, 2023

Daily Market Reports | Feb 23 2023

This story features AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ARX

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ARX   BMT   BRG (3)   CGF   CPU   CQE (2)   CSL   CVN   DRO   DXS   GL1   GUD   IFM   JHX (2)   KMD   MGH   PME   RBL   SGM (2)   STO   SVR (3)   SWM   TPW (3)   VSL   WDS  

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.10

Bell Potter rates ((ARX)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter considers a new three-year agreement by TELA Bio with an unnamed (new) group purchasing organisation (GPO) is an important development for both TELA Bio and Aroa Biosurgery. 

TELA is Aroa's distribution partner in the US for the Ovitex range and the analyst now expects increased market access.

The broker's Buy rating and $1.45 target are unchanged.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.35
If ARX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1100.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1100.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BMT    BEAMTREE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.30

Shaw and Partners rates ((BMT)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners was impressed with the first half result as Beamtree Holdings returned to strong organic growth. The outlook was reaffirmed for both FY23 revenue and costs as well as the longer-term (2026) ARR target of $60m.

Momentum is building internationally, particularly for the company's core products. The broker reiterates a Buy rating and $0.70 target. Organic recurring revenue in FY23 is forecast to be around 20% and consistent with the first half.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.4
If BMT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 133% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $20.83

Jarden rates ((BRG)) as Underweight (4) –

Breville Group's December-half earnings (EBIT) beat consensus forecasts by 2% but sales disappointed by -6%. FY23 EBIT guidance missed consensus by -1%. 

On the downside, demand weakened in European, Middle Eastern and African markets, and Ukraine-driven supply-chain issues drove a fall in distribution.

On the upside, the Americas performed well and gross margins rose thanks to price increases, product mix and a big beat on R&D and marketing expenditure.

Jarden observes working capital dragged on operating cash flow but expects this will shift in the second half, supporting the balance sheet.

Underweight rating retained, the broker expecting a challenging year. Target price eases to $20.30 from $20.50.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $20.30 Current Price is $20.83 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.42, suggesting upside of 7.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 77.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.3, implying annual growth of 0.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 88.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.2, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates ((BRG)) as Buy (1) –

Breville Group's first half earnings were slightly ahead of expectations according to Shaw and Partners, with revenue largely flat year-on-year. The broker found Breville Group to have successfully controlled costs and driven gross margin improvement, driving the earnings beat. 

Group product revenue increase 5.0% year-on-year to $770.5m, but geographically the Americas was a highlight with product revenue from the region lifting 21.8% year-on-year to $450.7m. Europe and the Middle East declined -22.1% to $156.6m and Australia Pacific increased 0.3% to $163.2m. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $23.00 from $25.10.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.83 Difference: $2.17
If BRG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.42, suggesting upside of 7.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.70 cents and EPS of 73.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.3, implying annual growth of 0.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 33.60 cents and EPS of 84.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.2, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((BRG)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

First half earnings were ahead of Wilsons' estimates, driven by gross margins. The broker is encouraged by the outcome as product sales globally missed forecasts.

Gross margins remain attractive and retailers are now expected to re-stock, while the launch of the three new products in the second half should provide a tailwind for FY24.

Wilsons upgrades Breville Group to Overweight from Market Weight and raises the target to $23.50 from $22.10.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $20.83 Difference: $2.67
If BRG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.42, suggesting upside of 7.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 76.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.3, implying annual growth of 0.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 88.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.2, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF    CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $7.44

Jarden rates ((CGF)) as Overweight (2) –

Challenger reported an in-line result notes Jarden.

The company continues to benefit from robust annuity sales and better life spread margins, offsetting weaker funds management and higher costs over the period.

Jarden lowers earnings forecasts marginally for FY23 and FY24 by -4% and -1%, respectively.

Overweight rating unchanged and the target raised to $7.85 from $7.70.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $7.44 Difference: $0.41
If CGF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.34, suggesting downside of -1.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 47.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.6, implying annual growth of 18.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.30 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of 19.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU    COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $24.06

Jarden rates ((CPU)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden assesses the 1H23 earnings results for Computershare as meeting forecasts though a slight -3% miss on consensus estimates.

The analyst points to higher margin income offsetting weaker revenues and higher inflation costs.

Earnings forecasts are marginally tweaked by 0.4% and -0.3%.

The target is lowered to $27.15 from $27.75 and an Overweight rating is maintained.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $27.15 Current Price is $24.06 Difference: $3.09
If CPU meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.73, suggesting upside of 15.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 103.61 cents and EPS of 156.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 160.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 123.70 cents and EPS of 187.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.5, implying annual growth of 20.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQE    CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT

Childcare – Overnight Price: $3.14

Jarden rates ((CQE)) as Neutral (3) –

According to Jarden the higher cost of debt is continuing to drag on the near and medium term outlook for Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT post the 1H23 earnings report.

The group continues with its acquisition strategy, however the analyst would prefer to see future purchases funded via asset divestments.

Jarden lowers earnings forecasts by -4.5% and -2.8% for FY23 and FY24 as a result of higher interest rate expectations.

Neutral rating unchanged and the target is lowered to $3.70 from $3.95.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $0.56
If CQE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.60 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.26.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.94.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Moelis rates ((CQE)) as Hold (3) –

First half results for Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT revealed an EPS of 8.1c with DPS of 8.6c. No earnings guidance was provided, but DPS remains unchanged at 17.2c for FY23.

Like-for-like net property income (NPI) growth was 3.7%, comprised of 4% rental growth (helped by CPI linkages) less property cost inflation.

The target falls to $3.40 from $3.70 after the broker allows for increased interest rates assumptions across its coverage of the REITs sector, offset by capital deployment over the medium term.

Net capital of around -$210m  was deployed during the half (including committed) reflecting circa 10% growth in the asset base, points out the analyst.

The Hold rating is unchanged.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $0.26
If CQE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.26.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.26.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $295.70

Jarden rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden points to slightly weaker margins for Behring to explain the -1% 1H23 earnings miss for CSL.

Looking ahead, margins for plasma are expected to increase as volumes continue to ramp up with collection centres still operating below full capacity,

Jarden makes minor adjusts to earnings estimates of -5.6% for FY23 and -1.3% for FY24.

Overweight unchanged and a lift in the target price to $334.55 from $322.52.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $334.55 Current Price is $295.70 Difference: $38.85
If CSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $335.99, suggesting upside of 13.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 315.03 cents and EPS of 700.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 810.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 375.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 332.37 cents and EPS of 986.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1026.8, implying annual growth of 26.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 485.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVN    CARNARVON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.15

Jarden rates ((CVN)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden highlights regulatory approval of the Dorado offshore project proposal for Carnarvon Energy.

Management offered no timing on the final investment decision which the broker anticipates will be forthcoming in 2024.

Earnings forecasts are unchanged.

An Overweight rating and 22c target are retained.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.065
If CVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.75.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.75.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRO    DRONESHIELD LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.32

Bell Potter rates ((DRO)) as Buy (1) –

A week after the completion of a $10.9m placement and $3m shareholder purchase plan, Bell Potter updates its forecasts for modest EPS declines and lowers its target to 40c from 42c. Buy.

Proceeds will be deployed to increase inventory and the numbers of engineering and sales employees, along with an investment in additional working capital.

These changes are a response to receiving two new contracts totaling $11m and in preparation for near-term opportunities, explains the analyst. 

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.085
If DRO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 39.38.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 315.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS    DEXUS

REITs – Overnight Price: $8.60

Jarden rates ((DXS)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden continues to adopt a cautious stance towards Dexus post the 1H23 results.

The analyst views the report as indicative of previously expected trading results being booked over the period.

On a positive note, Jarden highlights a reduction in gearing to 25.6% from 26.9% at the end of FY22.

Management guided to another tough outlook for the year ahead which Jarden suggests is already implied by the -29% discount to NAV.

Underweight rating unchanged and the target reduced to $9.20 from $9.60.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: $0.6
If DXS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.26, suggesting upside of 7.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 51.30 cents and EPS of 67.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.0, implying annual growth of -57.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 67.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.6, implying annual growth of -0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GL1    GLOBAL LITHIUM RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $1.59

Shaw and Partners rates ((GL1)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners finds the economics on Global Lithium Resources' Manna lithium project to be compelling following the release of the project's scoping study.

The project will proceed to a feasibility study, which should be completed in the current year, for a targeted first production in 2026. 

According to the broker, Manna looks highly likely to become a commercial mine. The study revealed a mineral resource increase of 230% to 32.7m tonnes at 1.0% lithium, but given ongoing drilling, the company expects a further resource upgrade in the second quarter. 

The Buy rating and target price of $3.80 are retained.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $2.21
If GL1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 139% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 54.83.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 63.60.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GUD    G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $9.97

Wilsons rates ((GUD)) as Overweight (1) –

G.U.D. Holdings' December-half result broadly met Wilsons' forecasts, thanks to strength in its main Auto business and better cash conversion.

No guidance was provided but management was confident June-half earnings would improve (and that they were already off to a good start), suggesting a strong second-half skew from its AutoPacific Group.

Wilsons feels G.U.D. Holdings represents a good structural growth opportunity, and expects growth in the 4×4 and SUV market and in exports. The broker also expects a re-rating could be on the cards once the balance sheet deleverages.

Overweight rating retained. Target price rises to $11.29 from $9.77.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $11.29 Current Price is $9.97 Difference: $1.32
If GUD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.26, suggesting upside of 12.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 78.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.6, implying annual growth of 239.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 86.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.4, implying annual growth of 11.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFM    INFOMEDIA LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $1.24

Shaw and Partners rates ((IFM)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Initiating on Infomedia, Shaw and Partners finds a compelling entry point in the company's -27.0% valuation discount to peers.

The broker expects the stock can deliver strong shareholder returns, underpinned by a new vision that will see the company move from a parts and service vendor to a broader eco-system player. 

The broker is anticipating Infomedia can grow revenue at an 8% compound annual growth rate over the next three years, to revenue above $150m by FY25, and cash earnings margins at a more than 15% compound annual growth rate to 21.1% by the same year. 

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $1.60.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.365
If IFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.80 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.70.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.30 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.93.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $30.89

Goldman Sachs rates ((JHX)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs highlights a worse than expected 3Q23 trading update for James Hardie Industries missing its forecasts and market consensus by -16% to -18%.

The weakness was evident across all divisions, but notably in North America where inflation and lower prices had a more material impact.

Management guided to lower earnings for FY23 and the broker adjusts earnings estimates lower by -6% for FY23 and -2% for FY24.

A Buy rating is unchanged and the target lowered -2% to $39.50.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $30.89 Difference: $8.61
If JHX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.78, suggesting upside of 22.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in February.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 193.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 171.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.0, implying annual growth of -6.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((JHX)) as Neutral (3) –

Lower management guidance for FY23 from James Hardie Industries in the 2Q23 earnings report have triggered only minor changes to Jarden's estimates, as the broker highlights forecasts were already below consensus for FY23 and FY24.

The analyst sees the company as somewhere around midpoint in the cyclical downturn and remains cautious with further earnings downgrades possible.

Neutral rating maintained and the target lowered to $31.60 from $32.85.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $31.60 Current Price is $30.89 Difference: $0.71
If JHX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.78, suggesting upside of 22.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in February.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 196.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 147.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.0, implying annual growth of -6.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD    KMD BRANDS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation – Overnight Price: $0.99

Jarden rates ((KMD)) as Buy (1) –

KMD Brands reported better than expected revenues and lower than forecast EBITDA for the 1H23 according to Jarden's analyst.

Breaking down the results, the broker views the stronger sales as indicative of improved results from the higher marketing spend, but inventory levels remain problematic.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -12% and -17% for FY23 and FY24. Buy rating retained, the target lowered to NZ$1.35 from NZ$1.40.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Current Price is $0.99. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.01 cents and EPS of 7.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.82.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 8.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.25.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGH    MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $2.93

Moelis rates ((MGH)) as Buy (1) –

When Maas Group delivers its 1H results later this month, management expects earnings (EBITDA) in the range of $64-66m.

After taking into account affirmed FY23 earnings guidance of $150-180m, the analyst expects around $100m in 2H earnings, aided by a contribution from the Dandy acquisition.

The FY23 guidance remains dependent upon a return to normalised operations following 1H weather events on the east coast of Australia. The guidance is also reliant upon impacts of interest rises upon buyer confidence and conversion time in the company’s real estate operations.

Management anticipates operating conditions will normalise for several major infrastructure projects in the 2H.

The broker raises its target to $3.94 from $3.92. Buy.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $3.94 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $1.01
If MGH meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 26.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.14.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 34.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.49.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PME    PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $61.20

Bell Potter rates ((PME)) as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) –

First half revenues for Pro Medicus were 6% ahead of the consensus estimate, while earnings (EBIT) were in line. Bell Potter feels outlook commentary was supportive of ongoing growth.

The broker points out earnings growth has slowed from FY22. The rating falls to Sell from Hold on a continuation of this earnings trend in FY23 and FY24, a high forward multiple and a potential recession in the US induced by monetary policy tightening.

Despite the downgrade, the analyst expects strong EPS growth in FY23 and FY24.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $61.20 Difference: minus $6.2 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $48.28, suggesting downside of -21.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.30 cents and EPS of 55.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 111.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of 25.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 114.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 37.50 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 81.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.5, implying annual growth of 26.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 90.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RBL    REDBUBBLE LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $0.49

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RBL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Redbubble’s 1H results were largely pre-released via 4Q results three weeks prior.

However, Canaccord Genuity explains weak January trading has led to a downgrade in guidance to “FY23 Marketplace revenue to be slightly below FY22” from “FY23 revenue in line with FY22”.

The broker attributes the downgrade to a focus on profitability over revenue and a weaker operating environment.

Canaccord lowers its FY23-25 revenue forecasts by around -3% though retains its $1.15 target. The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

The analyst points out Redbubble has a high variable cost structure and management should be able to adjust quickly should macroeconomic conditions deteriorate in 2023.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.66
If RBL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 135% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 21.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 19.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -18.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $15.97

Goldman Sachs rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

Sims reported 1H23 earnings better than Goldman Sachs and consensus forecasts, albeit North America registered a -74% decline on the previous year.

Notably cashflows were better than anticipated leading to a much improved reduction in net debt to $33m from a $109m forecast from the analyst.

The broker downgrades EPS forecasts -4% and -3% for FY23 and FY24 accounting for lower volumes.

The Neutral rating is maintained and the target raised to $16.80 from $16.50.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $16.80 Current Price is $15.97 Difference: $0.83
If SGM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting downside of -9.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 76.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.8, implying annual growth of -77.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 139.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.0, implying annual growth of 34.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

According to Jarden, Sims beat both consensus and the broker's earnings forecasts in the 1H23 earnings report.

Of note, trading was robust last November and December, alongside inventory de-stocking and lower freight costs. 

Management is continuing to expand the ferrous scrap metal capacity to a target of 9.6m ton by FY25 via acquisition, which is likely to lower the probability of future share buybacks, according to the analyst.

Jarden increases EPS forecasts by 33.9% for FY23 and 40.8% for FY24. Neutral rating and an upgrade in the target to $16.40 from $12.60.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $16.40 Current Price is $15.97 Difference: $0.43
If SGM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting downside of -9.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 66.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.8, implying annual growth of -77.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.90 cents and EPS of 86.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.0, implying annual growth of 34.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $7.02

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Overweight (2) –

Santos has flags reserves downgrades and impairments to WA gas production in anticipation of the FY22 results announcement on February 22.

Jarden wasn't surprised. There are no changes to earnings forecasts. Overweight rating and $7.85 target maintained.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.83
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.33, suggesting upside of 32.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 32.66 cents and EPS of 112.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 123.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 40.46 cents and EPS of 61.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.0, implying annual growth of -22.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SVR    SOLVAR LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.90

Bell Potter rates ((SVR)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter assesses a good 1H result for Solvar, formerly known as Money3, with earnings (EBITDA) coming in ahead of expectations. The 7.5cps fully-franked interim dividend was a 25% increase on the previous corresponding period.

Despite a 7% rise in bad debts and increased interest costs, the analyst sees no indication of deteriorating credit quality.

Management lowered FY23 profit guidance to $48m from $52m due to recent flooding in New Zealand and higher funding costs.

The broker's valuation for Solvar rises due to a higher proportion of relatively cheaper debt in the funding mix, despite lower earnings estimates across FY23-25. The target rises to $3.01 from $2.90. Buy.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $3.01 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $1.11
If SVR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 23.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.05.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 23.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.23.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Canaccord Genuity rates ((SVR)) as Buy (1) –

Solvar, formerly known as Money3, delivered a solid beat in the 1H against forecasts by Canaccord Genuity due to double-digit growth in cash collections and lower bad debts than expected.

While all other guidance was reaffirmed, management, acting proactively according to the analyst, lowered FY23 profit guidance in anticipation of bad debts from impacts of the recent New Zealand flooding.

Management noted the return to more normal broker volumes in the 4Q, suggesting to the broker a more favourable competitive environment.

The target rises to $2.70 from $2.65. Buy.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.8
If SVR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 22.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.56.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.14.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates ((SVR)) as Buy (1) –

First half results were broadly in line with expectations. Loan book growth and cash flow have been strong, particularly in the Australian market.

Solvar has reduced FY23 guidance, nevertheless, to $48m in net profit from $52m, citing expectations regarding write-offs from the New Zealand floods and the drawing down of relatively expensive mezzanine debt to guarantee the availability of funding.

Lower guidance may be disappointing yet Shaw and Partners assesses the business now has a strong balance sheet position. Solvar is experiencing headwinds in terms of sentiment, yet the broker considers the stock cheap and a Buy rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $2.65 from $3.09.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.75
If SVR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.41.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.40 cents and EPS of 24.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.85.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SWM    SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $0.41

Goldman Sachs rates ((SWM)) as Sell (5) –

Seven West Media's reported 1H23 results were better than expected according to Goldman Sachs.

However, the analyst points to ongoing impacts of alternative digital advertising and the macro headwinds for ad spend in the 2H23 outlook statement, by an expected -4.5% decline in Total TV industry revenues.

Goldman Sachs adjusts EPS forecasts by -12% and -8%, in addition to removing previously expected dividend payments for FY23 and FY24, respectively.

A Sell rating is retained with a 43c target.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.025
If SWM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 55.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of -16.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of -14.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $3.57

Bell Potter rates ((TPW)) as Hold (3) –

Following 1H results, Bell Potter lowers its target price for Temple & Webster to $4.10 from $5.90 on forecast earnings downgrades and a decreased multiple. The Hold rating is unchanged.

Revenue for the half fell by -12% on the previous corresponding period though the earnings (EBITDA) margin of 3.5% was a beat against the broker's forecast.

Management expects a return to double-digit revenue growth by the 4Q of FY24. Early 2H trading (5 week's worth) fell by -7% compared to the previous corresponding period.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.53
If TPW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 30.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 70.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.1, implying annual growth of -48.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 49.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Goldman Sachs rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs considers the -27% decline in the Temple & Webster share price post the 1H23 earnings results as an overreaction to a weaker than expected trading update for the start of 2023.

The analyst continues to like the structural growth story for the company over the longer term as the online digital footprint expands as well as the strong $100m net cash position.

A Buy rating on the conviction list is retained and the target price is lowered to $6.50 from $7.60.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $2.93
If TPW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 30.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.1, implying annual growth of -48.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 49.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((TPW)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden points to the weaker than expected trading results, down -7% for the first 5-weeks of 2023, as a pending challenge for Temple & Webster's 2H23 earnings.

The analyst envisages single digit sales growth towards the end of FY23 as more likely post the update, but views M&A activity as possible with the $102.4m in net cash on the balance sheet.

Jarden lifts FY23 EPS forecast by 8.3% and lowers FY24 EPS estimate by -10% after adjusting in changes on interest expenses, as well as depreciation and amortisation charges.

Neutral rating and a lower target of $4.12 from $5.46.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $5.47 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $1.9
If TPW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 30.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.1, implying annual growth of -48.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 49.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VSL    VULCAN STEEL LIMITED

Overnight Price: $8.36

Jarden rates ((VSL)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Vulcan Steel reported a "poor" 1H23 result according to Jarden with a considerable decline in the core business offset by a better than anticipated result from the recently purchased Ulrich Aluminium.

Higher costs and a -15% fall in volumes underpinned the poor core operating results.

Jarden lowers earnings forecasts by -2% and -0.7% for FY23 and FY24.

The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underweight and the target is lowered to NZ$9.30 from NZ$9.45.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Current Price is $8.36. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.14 cents and EPS of 74.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.27.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 49.96 cents and EPS of 62.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.39.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $34.58

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Underweight (4) –

Woodside Energy reported FY22 guidance revealing higher than consensus expectations of tax expenses and costs, resulting in impactful market earnings downgrades of -10% and -15% for the DPS in FY22..

Jarden adjusts EPS forecasts by 0.9% for FY22 and -17.7% for FY23 with a corresponding -17.9% decline in the DPS for FY23.

Underweight rating and $33.60 rating maintained.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $33.60 Current Price is $34.58 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $38.60, suggesting upside of 11.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 368.50 cents and EPS of 507.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 552.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 377.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 218.21 cents and EPS of 274.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 336.3, implying annual growth of -39.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 262.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

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CHARTS

ARX BMT BRG CGF CPU CQE CSL CVN DRO DXS GL1 GUD IFM JHX KMD MGH PME RBL SGM STO SVR SWM TPW VSL WDS

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ARX - AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BMT - BEAMTREE HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BRG - BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CGF - CHALLENGER LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CPU - COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CQE - CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CSL - CSL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CVN - CARNARVON ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DRO - DRONESHIELD LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DXS - DEXUS

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GL1 - GLOBAL LITHIUM RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GUD - G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IFM - INFOMEDIA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHX - JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: KMD - KMD BRANDS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MGH - MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PME - PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RBL - REDBUBBLE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGM - SIMS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: STO - SANTOS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SVR - SOLVAR LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SWM - SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TPW - TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: VSL - VULCAN STEEL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WDS - WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED