Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jan 25, 2023

Daily Market Reports | Jan 25 2023

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A1M   BPT   CAI   CCX (3)   CHN   COE   CVN   DEG   DSE   ELD   FDV   FPH   GDG   IGL   IMD   KAR   LOT   LTR (3)   NAN (3)   NCZ   PDN   PEB   PEN   PLS   PME (2)   PNR   RBL   RDT   RWC   SLX   STO   TIE   TLX   VHT   WDS   WHC (2)  

A1M    AIC MINES LIMITED

Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $0.49

Shaw and Partners rates ((A1M)) as Buy (1) -

AIC Mines's December-quarter report appears to have disappointed Shaw and Partners, due to continuing truck availability issues.

Once this is resolved, the broker expects access to the Macy North deposit will enable full-year guidance to be maintained.

Meanwhile, the broker observes the Lens 6 discovery is yielding exceptional drilling results; Jericho will make a big contribution to mine-life, volume and costs, and awaits the completion of the Demetallica acquisition, which it claims wil be "game-changing" for Eloise.

Buy recommendation and 74c target price retained.

This report was published on January 24, 2023.

Target price is $0.73 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.24
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.41.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.58.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil - Overnight Price: $1.59

Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (2) -

In a recent sector review, Jarden is forecasting a reduction in oil and gas prices in 2023 over 2022, despite the ongoing Ukraine/Russia war.

The broker expects a -27% decline in the LNG price to US$25/mmbtu from US$34.3/mmbtu and an average Brent price of US$85/bbl in 2023, some -14% below the 2022 level of US$99/bbl.

With the December 2022 quarter production report (January 31) forecast to come in below market consensus, alongside potential cost and delay issues at Waitsia with the contractor Clough placed into administration, Beach Energy has near term headwinds.

However Jarden is looking for the company's outlook to improve over 2H23 with the connection of four Thylacine wells and the near shore Enterprise well, alongside exploration drilling results from the Perth Basin.

An Overweight rating is retained although patience for the value accretion may be needed, notes the broker. The target remains at $1.95.

This report was published on January 19, 2023.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.36
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 20.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 7.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 29.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of 14.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAI    CALIDUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $0.39

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CAI)) as Speculative Buy (1) -

Canaccord Genuity highlights that Calidus Resources announced a new discovery at the Blue Spec Project which is located 70km from the Warrawoona Mine, a resource of 190oz at 24.4g/t gold.

The broker also notes the company started commercial production at the Warrawoona mine with processing at the mill reaching 191kt of ore in December after ramp up problems post the first pour in May 2022.

A Speculative Buy rating is retained alongside the 85c price target.

This report was published on January 19, 2023.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.46
If CAI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 118% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCX    CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear - Overnight Price: $0.69

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CCX)) as Buy (1) -

Canaccord Genuity revises FY23-25 revenue forecasts by 1%, 4% and -12%, respectively, for City Chic Collective following a 1H trading update. It's felt the nadir for earnings (EBITDA) margins has been reached.

Management expects promotional activity will slow from the 3Q and believes fulfilment objectives will aid 2H margins, while the inventory balance should stabilise in the 4Q of FY23. The analyst expects the company's FY23 target range for inventory will be achieved.

The Buy rating and $1.05 target are unchanged.

This report was published on January 23, 2023.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.355
If CCX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting downside of -10.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Goldman Sachs rates ((CCX)) as Neutral (3) -

Goldman Sachs is cautiously optimistic following the latest trading update from City Chic Collective with the company showing signs of a stablisation in the trading trends and an improving balance sheet position.

Of note is the better than expected de-stocking of inventory to a guided range of $125-$135m compared to expectations of $139m.

The broker envisages a potential recapitalisation of the company post the debt renegotiation and relaxation of the debt covenants.

Minor earnings forecast adjustments of -2.9% for FY24. A Neutral rating due to ongoing concerns around trading conditions and margin improvement. 

The target is raised to $0.69 from $0.42 

This report was published on January 23, 2023.

Target price is $0.69 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting downside of -10.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((CCX)) as Market Weight (3) -

Wilsons observes ongoing promotions undermined gross margins for City Chic Collective in the recent trading update with management guiding to 1H23 EBITDA in a range of -$2.5 to -$4m, compared to the broker's forecast of -$1.4m.

The company managed to increase debt facilities and relax the debt covenants over the period.

Wilsons is looking to the 1H23 results announcement on February 27 for more operational updates and strategy plans for the business.

The broker lowers EBITDA estimates by -210.5% and -69.9% for FY23 and FY24, respectively.

Market Weight rating is retained and the target is raised 41.3% to 65c on the back of adjusted valuation as well as potential corporate activity.

This report was published on January 23, 2023.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: minus $0.045 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting downside of -10.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 49.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


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