Weekly Reports | Mar 02 2020
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By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Period: Monday February 24 to Friday February 28, 2020
Total Upgrades: 28
Total Downgrades: 7
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 39.60%; Hold 45.03%; Sell 15.37%
It was the final week of the local February reporting season and boy, there was frantic activity everywhere. Investors were selling shares on Covid 19 uncertainty and recession fears, while stockbroking analysts were digesting fresh corporate updates and remodeling accordingly.
For the week ending Friday, 28th February 2020, FNArena registered no less than 26 upgrades in ratings for individual ASX-listed stocks, against only nine downgrades. Star of the week was building materials stalwart Adelaide Brighton which received four upgrades, though three of those only went up to Neutral/Hold.
Spark Infrastructure is the only other stock that received multiple upgrades during the week. Of the two, only one upgrade moved to Buy.
Equally noteworthy is that of the nine downgrades for the week, none shifted to Sell.
The combined ratios for the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena are 45% of all ratings are Neutral/Hold, 39.60% of all ratings are Buy/Outperform and the remaining 15%-plus consists of Sell recommendations. The latter group has remained fairly stable for quite a while, so the main dynamic consists of changes between Buy and Hold with the latter representing most stocks as the robust upswing throughout calendar 2019 matured.
Dynamics for valuations and price targets on one hand and earnings estimates on the other remain in contradiction with each other. The trend for the former remains more positive than negative, while the overall trend for profit forecasts has once again made a decisive swing to the downside.
As such, the February reporting season can hardly be regarded a positive exercise for corporate Australia, regardless of the macro-economic concerns that have clouded the outlook.
Coca-Cola Amatil enjoyed the largest increase to price targets on a better-than-feared six months performance, followed by Healius, Inghams Group, and Super Retail. Stocks for which price targets took a noticeable step backwards throughout the week include AP Eagers, Flight Centre, and -irony oh irony- Adelaide Brighton.
When it comes to the week's upgrades to profit forecasts, lots of fireworks are on show, with OceanaGold the week's primus inter pares, at considerable distance followed by Galaxy Resources, Costa Group, Appen, and Santos. But there were equally enormous (if not gigantic) reductions to forecasts, with Ardent Leisure, Afterpay, Audinate Group and Zip Co the main casualties for the week.
As such, investors can take guidance from the final week of the February reporting season in that, on average, earnings forecasts are once again trending lower, with plenty of exceptions spread across multiple segments of the share market.
ADELAIDE BRIGHTON LIMITED ((ABC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi and Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie and Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley and Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/4/1
Citi's statement is one for the ages: Adelaide Brighton "posted its weakest result in a decade and expects 2020 to fall a further 10%". Luckily, for loyal shareholders, the analysts also think improvement is on the horizon.
About the result released, the verdict is: FY19 is in-line (with prior profit warning), but FY20 guidance is (yet another) miss.
It is Citi's view that the next upturn in construction activity is not likely to materialise before 2021. The analysts laud the fact the company's balance sheet has been restored, allowing the board to reinstate dividend payments, after having scrapped the interim payout earlier.
On the assumption most of the bad news is now reflected in the share price, Citi upgrades to Neutral from Sell. Target price unchanged at $3. Forecasts have been reduced on weaker-than-expected guidance.
Adelaide Brighton's -36% fall in profit was not quite as bad as Macquarie had forecast. The loss was driven by lower volumes, reduced pricing and higher input costs. 2020 guidance is for a further -10% fall but the broker is forecasting below guidance due to ongoing complexities.
That said, the stock has fallen -24% since Macquarie downgraded to Underperform last month and with earnings expectations now re-based, residual risks are better balanced, the broker believes. Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform. Target falls to $3.00 from $3.30.
2019 results were in line with guidance on expectations. Morgan Stanley expects investor demand to improve once the impact of the implied downgrade to 2020 has passed.
The broker believes it is too early to take a more positive stance but upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight. Target is $3. Industry view: Cautious.
2019 results were in line with expectations. Cash flow and dividend were a positive surprise for Morgans.
The broker considers the risk/award profile now more attractive, which compensates for the structural challenges facing the business.
Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. With the market likely to take time to gain confidence in the earnings recovery, the broker suggests investors accumulate the stock. Target is reduced to $3.30 from $3.65.
AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD ((AFG)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Morgans upgrades Australian Finance Group to Add from Hold. While the company's FY20 first-half result was slightly shy of the broker, it was 11% above consensus, and net interest margins (NIM) shot through the roof – double Morgans' forecast.
Favourable securitisation markets played a role. More than half of the NIM rise reflected the spread compression in the one-month bank bill swap rate over the one-month overnight indexed swap. The broker says the balance was attributable to strong growth in the higher margin Link product, as well as out-of-cycle repricing.
While tipping modest NIM growth ahead, the broker perceives upside risk from growth in Link. Morgans notes NIM as a percentage of revenue is rising (given a constrained mortgage market) and says the company's overall risk profile is rising in that it is leaning towards a securitisation model rather than the more defensive wholesale mortgage broking business; and given that global events can affect the residential-mortgage-backed securitisation market.
The broker believes the company has enough cash to weather 12 months of such a disruption, which would hit the share price.
In the meantime, EPS forecasts rise 3% for FY20, 11% for FY21 and 14% for FY22. Target price rises to $3.25 from $2.50.
AINSWORTH GAME TECHNOLOGY LIMITED ((AGI)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/0/1
Historical horse racing machine expansions in Kentucky are significant and Macquarie considers Ainsworth Game the best placed manufacturer. The broker also assumes the rest of the business stabilises.
Hence, the PE of 20x FY21 estimates is considered attractive, plus there is upside earnings risk. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is steady at $0.80.
AP EAGERS LIMITED ((APE)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/0
2019 underlying pre-tax profit was below Ord Minnett's forecast. The broker assesses headwinds continue for the near term, including new vehicle sales and the exit of Holden from the market.
Nevertheless, AP Eagers is considered ideally positioned to participate in industry consolidation and accelerate its market leadership.
Now that a re-basing appears to have occurred in the 2019 result, and the share price is at a more realistic level, the broker upgrades to Accumulate from Hold. Target is reduced to $10.50 from $11.50.
See also APE downgrade.
ALUMINA LIMITED ((AWC)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/2
Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten. The broker lowers 2020 earnings estimates after accounting for amortisation of the WA gas contract pre-payment.
Ord Minnett no longer envisages significant de-rating catalysts, with the stock trading close to its recent lows amid support from a 4%-plus dividend yield. Target is raised to $2.10 from $2.00.
BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/0
BlueScope Steel's result featured a solid beat for Australian steel, thanks to a recovering housing market, but underperformance in building products in Asia and North America.
Asia is impacted by the virus but despite this being a short term hit, competition is also an issue, UBS notes. The group's net result beat guidance by 10%.
The broker's prior Sell rating reflected slowing Australian housing, North Star execution risk and elevated valuation. The first and last of these have now reversed, hence UBS upgrades to Neutral. Target rises to $13.00 from $12.28.
COOPER ENERGY LIMITED ((COE)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/0
The underlying -$2m net loss in the first half was well below Ord Minnett's forecasts of a $12m profit.
Nevertheless, the broker remains positive on the stock as it is trading well below valuation and earnings and cash flow are insulated because of the fixed-price contracts.
There are a number of upcoming catalysts including a final investment decision on Minerva and the development of the Annie field. Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Hold and reiterates a $0.64 target.
EBOS GROUP LIMITED ((EBO)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/2/0
First half results were broadly in line and Credit Suisse was impressed with the integration of the Chemist Warehouse supply contract.
There were a number of margin pressures in evidence and Credit Suisse has some questions about the sustainability of some earnings streams, given the extent of the initiatives required to offset the pressures.
Nevertheless, EBOS appears to be well-positioned for a number of growth opportunities and the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is raised to NZ$22.47 from NZ$21.75.
FLIGHT CENTRE LIMITED ((FLT)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/4/0
First half results were in line with recently issued guidance but the company has revised down earnings guidance to $240-300m for FY20 because of a broad-based slowdown in travel.
Credit Suisse also downgrades FY21 first half assumptions, expecting travel to recover slowly. The broker does not believe the results quell the debate regarding the Australian leisure distribution, which is now exacerbated by coronavirus risks.
A balanced view also acknowledges the potential for strong growth in corporate and the expanding presence in North America and Europe.
Hence, Credit Suisse suggests stabilisation of earnings is likely to be most important for the share price performance and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $47.40 from $44.83.
HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/0/1
First half earnings missed Credit Suisse forecasts because of a deterioration in IT services profitability and higher expenses in the platform division.
Nevertheless, the broker found many positive aspects including strong growth in funds under administration, slower revenue margin contraction and further earnings margin expansion.
Credit Suisse observes valuation support has recently emerged and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $12.80 from $13.00.
INFOMEDIA LTD ((IFM)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/0/0
UBS was impressed with the revenue growth in the first half, complemented by strong operating leverage. Results were in line. The broker envisages opportunity for continued growth across multiple existing and new segments.
Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral, as UBS recognises the business deserves a higher premium. Target is raised to $2.40 from $1.95.
INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/4/0
The first half result was weaker than the prior corresponding half, as expected, albeit slightly ahead of Credit Suisse forecasts.
The broker was pleased with the positive momentum and assesses full year expectations are achievable.
While feed costs remain elevated, they are already factored into the base. Demand is also robust.
The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral, envisaging upside on a 12-month view. Target is raised to $4.00 from $3.50.
INVOCARE LIMITED ((IVC)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/1
2019 results, which were better-than-expected, were supported by rebound in the number of deaths after a soft 2018, amid a strong performance from renovated sites and contributions from acquisitions.
Management continues to expect the number of deaths to revert back to the long-term trend. Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold, given increased confidence in the growth outlook. Target rises to $15.87 from $13.63.
LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LNK)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 5/1/0
Operating earnings missed Credit Suisse estimates in the first half. However net profit was better, as stronger-than-expected earnings in PEXA offset the operating earnings miss.
The company has provided net profit guidance for FY20 of "at least $160m" but downgraded operating earnings guidance for continuing operations to "approximately -10% lower".
Credit Suisse was disappointed with the outcome but can envisage the benefit from owning a portfolio of businesses that contain growth in some that offsets the challenges in others.
Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, predicated on a re-rating which may take some time to come as the market rebuilds confidence. Target is reduced to $5.90 from $6.90.
See also LNK downgrade.
MIDWAY LIMITED ((MWY)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0
The first half result serves to remind Ord Minnett of the cyclical nature of price and volume demand in the company's business, particularly from Chinese customers.
The normalised net loss was slightly below Ord Minnett's forecasts. Guidance has been reiterated and the company is yet to witness any significant impact arising from the coronavirus outbreak.
Ord Minnett considers guidance is achievable if Asian paper production remains robust.
With the share price materially below valuation, the rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target edges up to $2.08 from $2.07.
NANOSONICS LIMITED ((NAN)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/1
First half results were below forecasts. Downside risks come from pricing pressures as hospital budgets remain tight.
The market remains focused on the commercial launch of the technology platform, expected in FY21.
Morgans revises down near-term forecasts to reflect the delay in new product revenue but increases longer-term assumptions.
Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. Target is raised to $7.36 from $6.14.
NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NHF)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/5/1
nib Holdings issued a profit warning in January and yesterday's H1 report still fell short of expectations. Citi analysts have included a marking-to-market in their update, which has resulted in a minor increase for FY20 estimates, but decreases of -6% and -3% for FY21 and FY22, respectively.
The analysts note management's guidance for FY20 implies a better second half. Beyond FY20, Citi projects continued pressure on gross margins as claims inflation is expected to outweigh average premium rate increases.
Citi thinks the shares have been oversold and thus upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target price falls to $5.60 from $5.80.
OIL SEARCH LIMITED ((OSH)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/4/0
2019 net profit was broadly in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. Management has suggested that all partners are now aligned on a 3-train project in PNG.
While recognising it is difficult to predict the outcome of discussions, Ord Minnett does not believe the current share price is assigning value to the expansion.
Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target is raised to $7.20 from $6.85.
PEET & COMPANY LIMITED ((PPC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Peet & Co's first half earnings were 10% above Macquarie and management indicated it was not comfortable with current FY consensus forecasts. Sales volumes increased 52% in the half.
The broker forecasts a -36% fall in profit in FY20 due to a slowdown in sales in FY19, but expects earnings to bottom ahead of a step-change in FY22. FY20 earnings risk prompted a downgrade to Neutral last month but with confidence growing and an improving residential market, the broker upgrades back to Outperform. Target rises to $1.41 from $1.25.
RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITED ((RWC)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/3/0
Reliance Worldwide's result missed forecasts and guidance due to soft US revenues, which in turn were largely due to de-stocking of Sharkbite products by a US wholesaler pivoting to private label, UBS notes. The market has been wary of such events, the broker suggests, but management noted cycles of customer de-stocking and re-stocking are "normal" in this game.
That said, the broker feels this result adds concern to revenue growth expectations and hence a PE de-rate is appropriate. Target falls to $4.20 from $4.45 but on yesterday's share price move, UBS upgrades to Buy.
See also RWC downgrade.
SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP ((SKI)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse and Upgrade to Hold from Reduce by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/5/0
2019 results were ahead of forecasts. The growth outlook for TransGrid has firmed, given the government/industry consensus that increased transmission interconnection is required, most notably with the NSW government plan to side-step regulatory approvals.
Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, given the discount to valuation and improved relative cash flow outlook. Target is raised to $2.40 from $2.30.
Spark Infrastructure posted a solid result that beat Morgans, albeit cash flows were weaker than expected. Maiden FY20 dividend guidance, of a -1.5c cut to 13.5c, indicates the anticipated decline has begun. The broker expects dividends may bottom out at 11c in FY22 and average 12.3c across FY21-25.
Target rises to $2.05 from $2.00. A combination of target increase and share price sell-off lifts forecast total shareholder return to 5%, hence Morgans upgrades to Hold.
SERVCORP LIMITED ((SRV)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/0/0
First half results were stronger than UBS expected, driven by 300 basis points of margin expansion. Outperformance in Southeast Asia was the highlight, which was partly offset by widening losses in the US.
UBS considers the US business challenged but a potential upside catalyst if it can be turned around. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target is raised to $5.10 from $4.80.
SENEX ENERGY LIMITED ((SXY)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/2/0
First half results were in line with expectations. Operating expenditure was ahead of expectations and this, along with sustaining capital expenditure, remains the key uncertainty and driver of value, Credit Suisse suggests.
The time to start accumulating the stock may be nearing and market concerns regarding pricing may be overdone.
That said, Credit Suisse still asserts, for those who remain wary of being long CSG in the ramp-up phase, a preference for Strike Energy ((STX)).
Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is $0.37.
WOOLWORTHS LIMITED ((WOW)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/4/0
Despite the softer outlook, Credit Suisse does not believe there are issues of underperformance and the stock is a good place to be in a market that is likely to favour quality.
Credit Suisse upgrades to Neutral from Underperform although prefers Coles ((COL)) on valuation. Target is raised to $39.70 from $35.63.
The scale of wage under-payment continues to disappoint. There was a deceleration in comparable store sales growth in Australian food and continuing high capital expenditure in the first half. The second half is expected to be a challenging period for expenses.
AP EAGERS LIMITED ((APE)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/0
The operating business from the merged company reported underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $163.2m in 2019. Synergies are tracking ahead of the initial target, Macquarie observes.
Acquisition accounting played into the underlying results, the broker points out and, although there is potential for earnings growth, the extended risk from reduced credit availability and a prolonged cyclical downturn suggests further evidence is required for a rebound.
Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. The target is lowered to $9.40 from $14.00 to align with automotive comparables.
See also APE upgrade.
LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LNK)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 5/1/0
First half earnings missed expectations. The combination of another downgrade to FY20 guidance, soft new business and some client concentration risk means Morgan Stanley considers re-positioning for growth is harder than previously anticipated.
While acknowledging several issues should stabilise over the next 12-24 months, Morgan Stanley downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target is reduced to $5.30 from $7.50. In-Line industry view maintained.
See also LNK upgrade.
OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION ((OGC)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Ord Minnett observes investors brushed aside the 2019 results to focus on Didipio. While the company is making progress it is taking longer than previously expected.
The broker pushes out the assumed re-start to 2021. This will come at a cost and means a slower ramp up to full production.
Still, value is envisaged in the underlying portfolio. Rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy. Target is reduced to $3.10 from $3.50.
RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED ((RHC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 1/6/0
Citi thought it was an in-line result, but incorporating AASB16 accounting is pushing down EPS forecasts by -8% and -4% for FY20 and FY21 respectively. The recommendation shifts to Neutral from Buy given recent share price increase.
Ramsay Health Care's price target has gained $1 to $75. Citi notes how management has stuck with its FY20 guidance but due to AASB16 low single-digit growth in EPS is translating into -6%.
The margin in Australia is under pressure because health insurers cannot increase prices. Citi expects less decline in H2 and a subsequent reversal in FY21. Part of Citi's future outlook for private hospital operators is based upon the view that governments cannot let the malaise in health care and insurance deteriorate indefinitely.
RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITED ((RWC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/3/0
First half revenue was in line although operating earnings (EBITDA) were below expectations because of lower Americas volumes.
Given the company emphasised new products as a growth contributor and disappointed in this regard, Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.
The broker believes, now, the current pipeline does not warrant the anticipated R&D and commercial expenditure, as first half sales have not materialised.
This points to lower growth in the future. Target is reduced to $3.75 from $4.80.
See also RWC upgrade.
STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED ((SDF)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/1/0
First half results beat Credit Suisse estimates. The broker appreciates the fact the business is setting up for sustainable earnings, but growth remains below what can be expected in a positive premium rate environment.
Following the recent outperformance of the share price and lower underlying growth, Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is $4.
WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED ((WGN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 0/2/1
The company posted a net loss in the first half of -$1.2m and FY20 earnings guidance is reduced -40%.
The change is attributed to major uncertainty over project timing as well as concrete and cement market conditions in south-east Queensland.
Credit Suisse is most concerned about the second half earnings from south-east Queensland, while further commentary regarding Mozambique has pulled back in both likelihood and value.
.Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $1.50 from $2.30.
Broker Recommendation Breakup
Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABC - ADBRI LIMITED
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