FYI | Dec 18 2019
By Peter Switzer, Switzer Report
My investment strategy for 2020
Lately I’ve been getting into the tipster business suggesting the stocks I liked as we got closer to a trade deal. And I have to say I’ve liked my strike rate and I thank my experts on my TV show for helping me with my selections. (You could do worse than look at the last few shows to see what was selected as I suspect many of these will have legs rolling into 2020.)
The UK election was a bonus, which I expected, but as we all know being too confident about modern day polls can be a mega-mistake of Bill Shorten proportions!
Last week, I told my readers of Switzer Daily that there were three big issues to watch for stock players. First was the trade deal and that was a big tick. Then there was the UK poll, another big tick. And then there was the run of economic data, which I was hoping would give us a clue that the 2020 Oz economy would pick up and help boost profits and then share prices.
Along with China, Donald and BoJo have helped the external economic picture and they should be a plus for stocks. The gains could be less than you think because a lot of this was baked in already by an optimistic Wall Street.
However, the local economy continues to labour.
The latest run of economic data hasn’t been great.
Consumer and business confidence are leaning towards pessimistic. Economic growth is 1.7% for the 12 months to September, while the December quarter has hardly been great. Unemployment rose from 5.2% to 5.3% in November and employment fell for the first time in 17 months. Retail was flat-lining and car sales had the biggest annual fall in a decade! And residential building fell by 3.1% in the September quarter – the fifth straight decline, while work done is down 10.6% over the year – the biggest annual fall in 18 years.
This isn’t great and we need to see a turnaround and fast.
The stock market would love to hear that the Treasurer is bringing forward tax cuts to help the economy and avoid another interest rate cut in February but this looks unlikely, unfortunately. We need a positive circuit-breaker and with yesterday’s MYEFO (Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook) forecasting surpluses for the next four years, fiscal stimulus is still possible.
ScoMo wants a $5 billion budget surplus, which would be a gold star for Treasury but if the economy doesn’t pick up, then that star will be tarnished by year’s end and stocks won’t look great.
I’m sure we’ll see a positive and stimulating budget in May but I hope it’s not too late. Treasurer Frydenberg is gambling and as I’ve said, Donald and Boris have helped him.
The US market view is that the first phase trade deal will boost business confidence, investment and company profits. Right now, the consensus view on the target for the S&P 500 for 2020 is 3318, which is 5% higher, but that could prove conservative if another trade deal happens, a US-UK trade deal happens and Donald Trump takes out the November election.
The fourth year of a US Presidency is the second best behind the third year, which has been a ripper in 2019, up about 26% year-to-date. And thank God for our follow-the-leader tendency with Wall Street, with our market up just over 21% and we can thank the Yanks, Donald and Jerome Powell for a lot of that!
I know I tested many of you and your faith in me when I suggested we could see 7000 on the S&P/ASX 200 Index earlier this year but we’ve come awfully close and the year isn’t over yet. I gambled that Donald Trump would eventually be rational and get a trade deal and that bet paid off. Jerome Powell’s three rate cuts also helped.
So how do I play 2020?
I’ve told my financial planning clients for months that we invest based on a trade deal before Christmas that would help power stocks into March or April. Then we should assess what lies ahead, remembering the old market cliché of “Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day.” This is around September but I prefer November for safety.
Here are some facts about the US stock market and what happens with a Presidential campaign:
- If you examine the return of the S&P 500 Index for each of the 23 election years since 1928, you’ll see that it was negative in only four of them. (thebalance.com);
- Pepperdine professor Marshall Nickles, in a 2010 paper called Presidential Elections and Stock Market Cycles, presented data showing that a profitable strategy would be to invest on October 1 of the second year of a presidential term and sell on December 31 of year four. (ie the third and fourth years are best).