The Overnight Report: QE Or Not QE?

Daily Market Reports | Oct 09 2019

World Overnight
SPI Overnight (Dec) 6502.00 – 64.00 – 0.97%
S&P ASX 200 6593.40 + 29.80 0.45%
S&P500 2893.06 – 45.73 – 1.56%
Nasdaq Comp 7823.78 – 132.52 – 1.67%
DJIA 26164.04 – 313.98 – 1.19%
S&P500 VIX 20.28 + 2.42 13.55%
US 10-year yield 1.54 – 0.02 – 1.03%
USD Index 99.13 + 0.15 0.15%
FTSE100 7143.15 – 54.73 – 0.76%
DAX30 11970.20 – 127.23 – 1.05%

By Greg Peel

Nice Try

Once again we find ourselves in a position in which going into detail about yesterday’s action on the ASX is a bit pointless given overnight developments. The ASX200 rally yesterday, defying weakness on Wall Street, smacked of catch-up by those who were on holiday on Monday, but unfortunately it was not the best call.

Wall Street has taken another tumble and our futures are down -64 points this morning.

For what it’s worth, all sectors closed in the green yesterday by varying amounts. There was no discernible pattern.

Consumer discretionary (+1.0%) led the charge along with energy (+1.0%), supported by industrials (+0.9%) and utilities (+0.7%). Second tier performances were provided elsewhere except for telcos, which sat on the bench.

Mayne Pharma ((MYX)) topped the index winners’ board with an 8.0% gain, kicking on after its oral contraceptive deal. Collins Foods ((CKF)) rose 5.0% for no clear reason. The top losers were gold stocks, but they may well be the outperformers today.

Outside the index, a trading update from Baby Bunting ((BBN)) was worth -5.9%

The NAB business conditions survey for September showed a rise in the conditions index of one point to +1.6, still below average. The confidence index fell one point to -0.3, well below average. The March and September confidence numbers this year are the lowest since 2013.

No rate cut excitement there.

The ANZ job ads series showed a small 0.3% gain in September after falling -2.2% in August. But the annual decline is -10.4%. ANZ economists suggest recent employment strength reflects growth in public sector jobs, while the job ads series reflects weakness in the private sector. One assumes public sector growth cannot last.

Confidence Deteriorating

Before the opening bell on Wall Street last night, the US blacklisted another 28 Chinese companies, including AI firms, due to their involvement in human rights violations against the Uighur Muslim minority.

The White House is also reportedly moving forward with discussions around capital flow restrictions into China, specifically from government pension funds.

The Chinese Vice Premier said he will cut his trip to Washington short, arriving for talks on Thursday but leaving on Friday instead of Saturday as originally planned.

Carrie Lam told Hong Kong the violence has to stop. Tourism was -50% below average in Golden Week.

The EU dismissed Johnson’s Brexit deal proposal.

The Dow fell -350 points.

Just when it appeared all hope was lost, out came Jerome Powell. The Fed chair announced the Fed will begin purchases of short term US Treasury bills.

You mean QE?

No, no, no, no this is not QE. This is simply a “technical” implementation designed to address recent tightness in the overnight funding (repo) market.

The Dow rallied back 300 points on the news. A rose by any other name…

But just when it appeared all hope was not lost, news hit the wires the US will impose visa bans on Chinese officials involved in the aforementioned detention of the Uighur minority.

The Dow closed down -300 points.

These latest human rights punishments are a new twist, and arguably nothing to do with trade. But the timing is all to do with trade. Does the White House believe turning the screws on Beijing is more likely to result in concessions than rolling out the red carpet? What happened to all the Happy Talk?

Suffice to say market confidence of any sort of breakthrough or progress on trade this week took a solid hit last night.

As did US stock indices.

Commodities

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz) 1505.20 + 13.10 0.88%
Silver (oz) 17.72 + 0.33 1.90%
Copper (lb) 2.55 – 0.02 – 0.59%
Aluminium (lb) 0.78 – 0.00 – 0.46%
Lead (lb) 0.97 – 0.01 – 0.56%
Nickel (lb) 7.93 – 0.18 – 2.25%
Zinc (lb) 1.05 – 0.00 – 0.45%
West Texas Crude 52.21 – 0.70 – 1.32%
Brent Crude 57.85 – 0.60 – 1.03%
Iron Ore (t) futures 94.50 + 0.60 0.64%

It was revealed yesterday China has bought 100 tonnes (3.5moz) of gold in the past ten months.

China returned to metal markets last night. Note that the LME closed as Wall Street was rallying back, before the later tumble, when the US dollar index was higher than the 0.15% gain it settled at.

The oils weren’t doing a lot until the visa ban news.

The Aussie is steady at US$0.6728.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down -64 points or -1.0%.

Westpac releases its consumer confidence survey for October today.

The minutes of the September Fed meeting are released tonight and Powell will speak again.

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
CSL CSL Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
FAR FAR LTD Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
LLC LENDLEASE Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
NXT NEXTDC Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
PPH PUSHPAY HOLDINGS Downgrade to Lighten from Hold Ord Minnett
SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie

For more detail go to FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's – see disclaimer on the website)

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