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Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes

Weekly Reports | Oct 01 2018

This story features CHARTER HALL GROUP, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CHC

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday September 24 to Friday September 28, 2018
Total Upgrades: 7
Total Downgrades: 6
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 42.18%; Hold 42.12%; Sell 15.70%

Approaching the end of the September quarter, including macro uncertainty and the release of the interim report of the Royal Commission into banks and wholesale investors, broker downgrades and upgrades pretty much kept each other in balance during the week ending Friday, 28th September 2018.

FNArena registered seven upgrades for individual ASX-listed equities versus six downgrades. The difference was Whitehaven Coal which received two upgrades to Buy. Only one upgrade (Orocobre) moved to Neutral. Four of the six downgrades moved to Sell.

Miners and steel companies are more dominant among upgrades, which probably has a a thing or two to do with the fact the sector has sold down hard, with a number of investors/experts anticipating a bounce, at a minimum.

National Storage leads the week for positive target increases, enjoying a gain of 6.6%, followed by Santos, Goodman Group and APA Group. On the flipside, Nufarm's target suffered a blow of -14.2%, followed by Sims Metal's -3%. The good news is: there are only three stocks suffering negative adjustments for the week, and the third one (Western Areas) is hardly worth mentioning (-1.3%).

A lot more is happening with earnings forecasts, led by miners and energy companies. Gold producer Alacer Gold enjoyed the largest increase for the week, followed by Nufarm, Syrah Resources, and Fortescue Metals. Most increases are large, but so too are the reductions.

Largest reduction to earnings forecasts for the week went to NextDC, followed by Perseus Mining, Transurban, Sims Metal Management, and Telstra.

Upgrade

CHARTER HALL GROUP ((CHC)) Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Morgan Stanley envisages upside for Australian property stocks over the next 12 months. The broker focuses on those with better risk-adjusted returns and more visible catalysts. The broker envisages more than 10% upside to the real asset business of Charter Hall.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Underweight. Strength in retail flows, ongoing execution and accelerating earnings growth in FY19 and FY20 are the factors driving outperformance. Target is raised to $7.60 from $6.95. Industry view is Cautious.

OROCOBRE LIMITED ((ORE)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 7/1/0

Morgan Stanley updates its model to allow for the temporary changes to the Argentinian export tax, applying it to all exports out to 2020 at an assumed rate of 8%.

Given the disparity in the Chinese and Chilean lithium carbonate price forecasts the broker now uses an average of the two until the end of 2019. As a result earnings estimates for FY19 and FY20 are reduced slightly.

Morgan Stanley upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight. In-Line industry view and $4.20 target maintained.

SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((SGM)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Sims has downgraded first quarter earnings guidance due to a weaker performance form its Sims Adams recycling JV, a result of lower volumes and challenges in selling low-grade "zorba" (unseparated mix of non-ferrous metal scrap). It is not clear whether this is due to competition or weaker scrap prices, Credit Suisse notes.

The JV will now look to install new zorba processing equipment to lift grades. Credit Suisse suggests the downgrade is a hit to management's credibility given recent assurance that selling zorba would not be a problem.

Target falls to $14.45 from $14.80 but rating upgraded to Outperform with no explanation, most likely given yesterday's share price fall.

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse and Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 6/2/0

Whitehaven Coal's share price has recently come off the boil after a stellar run post-result, Credit Suisse notes. The broker has upgraded coal price assumptions, driving material earnings upgrades. Credit Suisse reminds that the company is a cash generating machine that at current spot prices, could buy itself back in under six years.

At the very least Whitehaven could afford to double its dividend, the broker points out. Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $6.00 from $5.10.

Citi has upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a revised price target of $5.90 from $5.40. The broker observes equity prices are being driven more by negative sentiment towards base metals than physical strength in bulks.

Thus earnings upgrades, combined with lower share prices, have driven an upgrade to the recommendation.The broker notes, after a number of years of strong growth driven by the ramp-up of Maules Creek, production has plateaued this year because of lower production from Narrabri. Growth is expected to improve from FY21 and be boosted by Vickery, if approved.

WOOLWORTHS LIMITED ((WOW)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/5/2

Citi analysts are suggesting Coles' ((WES)) successful Little Shop promotion has temporarily interrupted sales momentum at Woolworths' expense, but momentum will swing back into the latter's favour.

Better execution and management stability will allow Woolworths to return to like-for-like sales growth leadership in H2 FY19, predict the analysts. Target retained at $32 but following share price weakness the recommendation is upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

WESTERN AREAS NL ((WSA)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 5/1/1

Citi observes equity prices are being driven by negative sentiment towards base metals. The broker upgrades Western Areas to Buy from Neutral after a pullback in the share price. Target is raised to $3.50 from $3.20.

Citi remains keen to view the definitive feasibility study on Odysseus as at first glance resource grades appear on the low side for an underground nickel mine. The study has been delayed by a month, to the end of October, but the company has reassured the market that this is logistical and not technical.

Downgrade

AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES ((API)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 0/0/2

Australian Pharma has risen 29% since the Clearskincare acquisition, Credit Suisse notes, simply on multiple expansion. This is despite an increasingly challenged operating environment in which both PBS and retail revenues are under pressure.

The broker expects current 16.6x forward PE to compress following the company's October result release when focus on the challenging environment is renewed. Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral, target falls to $1.55 from $1.63.

INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL ((IGO)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/3

Macquarie has downgraded gold price forecasts which affects Independence Group's earnings materially and the rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. The broker retains a preference for Western Areas ((WSA)) in nickel.

Incorporating changes to nickel price forecasts and the AUD/USD profile also translates to a -20% cut to the company's FY19 earnings estimates. Target is reduced to $4.20 from $4.70.

NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED ((NHC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/3/0

A weaker Australian dollar is offset by an increase in Macquarie's coal price forecasts. The broker downgrades New Hope to Neutral from Outperform. Target is steady at $3.80.

NUFARM LIMITED ((NUF)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/1/1

Morgans observes, while Nufarm usually benefits from strength in geographic diversity, in FY18 everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong. Consequently earnings were downgraded and the balance sheet stretched.

The broker suggests, given the amount of new capital raised, negative publicity and litigation, any re-rating is likely to take time. The broker downgrades to Hold from Add and reduces the target to $6.85 from $9.00. Morgans recommends shareholders take up the entitlement offer, given the 17% upside.

VICINITY CENTRES ((VCX)) Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/1/1

Morgan Stanley envisages upside for Australian property stocks over the next 12 months. The broker focuses on those with better risk-adjusted returns and more visible catalysts.

While the broker still envisages further upside for Vicinity Centres this is expected to take time to deliver. Moreover, recent commentary by retailers, citing a desire for smaller stores in more convenient locations, indicates an increasingly challenged landscape for landlords.

Consequently, Morgan Stanley downgrades to Underweight from Overweight. Target is steady at $2.85. Industry view: Cautious.

XERO LIMITED ((XRO)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/4/1

Ord Minnett doesn't like the combination of a more risky profile (as management is on the lookout for acquisitions) with lofty expectations and a full valuation. The analysts point out the company's track record is unproven when it comes to acquisitions.

Recommendation is thus downgraded to Lighten from Hold, with an unchanged price target of $42.

Total Recommendations
Recommendation Changes

Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

 

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker
Upgrade
1 CHARTER HALL GROUP Buy Buy Morgan Stanley
2 OROCOBRE LIMITED Neutral Sell Morgan Stanley
3 SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED Buy Neutral Credit Suisse
4 WESTERN AREAS NL Buy Neutral Citi
5 WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED Buy Neutral Citi
6 WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED Buy Neutral Credit Suisse
7 WOOLWORTHS LIMITED Buy Neutral Citi
Downgrade
8 AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES Sell Neutral Credit Suisse
9 INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL Sell Neutral Macquarie
10 NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED Neutral Buy Macquarie
11 NUFARM LIMITED Neutral Buy Morgans
12 VICINITY CENTRES Sell Buy Morgan Stanley
13 XERO LIMITED Sell Neutral Ord Minnett

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Rating Previous Rating Change Recs
1 NSR NATIONAL STORAGE REIT -13.0% -50.0% 37.0% 4
2 APA APA GROUP 60.0% 33.0% 27.0% 5
3 WHC WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED 69.0% 44.0% 25.0% 8
4 RWC RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITED 50.0% 30.0% 20.0% 5
5 SGM SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED 50.0% 33.0% 17.0% 6
6 RIO RIO TINTO LIMITED 79.0% 64.0% 15.0% 7
7 WSA WESTERN AREAS NL 57.0% 43.0% 14.0% 7
8 ORE OROCOBRE LIMITED 88.0% 75.0% 13.0% 8
9 WOW WOOLWORTHS LIMITED -13.0% -25.0% 12.0% 8
10 CHC CHARTER HALL GROUP 60.0% 50.0% 10.0% 5

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Rating Previous Rating Change Recs
1 VCX VICINITY CENTRES 30.0% 70.0% -40.0% 5
2 NUF NUFARM LIMITED 50.0% 71.0% -21.0% 6
3 IGO INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL -42.0% -25.0% -17.0% 6
4 STO SANTOS LIMITED -20.0% -14.0% -6.0% 5

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs
1 NSR NATIONAL STORAGE REIT 1.560 1.463 6.63% 4
2 STO SANTOS LIMITED 6.628 6.276 5.61% 5
3 GMG GOODMAN GROUP 10.283 9.891 3.96% 6
4 APA APA GROUP 10.472 10.097 3.71% 5
5 WHC WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED 5.723 5.523 3.62% 8
6 WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED 36.611 35.963 1.80% 7
7 CHC CHARTER HALL GROUP 7.230 7.138 1.29% 5
8 IGO INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL 4.533 4.483 1.12% 6
9 RIO RIO TINTO LIMITED 87.474 86.953 0.60% 7

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs
1 NUF NUFARM LIMITED 7.685 8.960 -14.23% 6
2 SGM SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED 14.475 15.008 -3.55% 6
3 WSA WESTERN AREAS NL 3.243 3.286 -1.31% 7

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs
1 AQG ALACER GOLD CORP 7.621 1.049 626.50% 4
2 NUF NUFARM LIMITED 43.380 30.692 41.34% 6
3 SYR SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED -5.186 -7.813 33.62% 5
4 FMG FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD 38.394 33.139 15.86% 7
5 WHC WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED 65.886 58.846 11.96% 8
6 AWC ALUMINA LIMITED 34.912 31.681 10.20% 5
7 S32 SOUTH32 LIMITED 36.672 33.732 8.72% 7
8 GXY GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED 9.859 9.177 7.43% 5
9 ORE OROCOBRE LIMITED 15.623 14.566 7.26% 8
10 SGP STOCKLAND 37.050 34.700 6.77% 7

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs
1 NXT NEXTDC LIMITED 0.440 0.700 -37.14% 6
2 PRU PERSEUS MINING LIMITED 1.900 2.500 -24.00% 3
3 TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP 23.752 26.785 -11.32% 8
4 SGM SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED 98.825 110.950 -10.93% 6
5 TLS TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED 17.667 19.417 -9.01% 6
6 SBM ST BARBARA LIMITED 31.890 34.023 -6.27% 5
7 WSA WESTERN AREAS NL 17.053 18.044 -5.49% 7
8 STO SANTOS LIMITED 34.402 36.345 -5.35% 5
9 NCM NEWCREST MINING LIMITED 106.107 111.132 -4.52% 8
10 IGO INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL 25.433 26.567 -4.27% 6

Technical limitations

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CHARTS

CHC IGO NHC NUF SGM VCX WES WHC WOW XRO

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CHC - CHARTER HALL GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IGO - IGO LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NHC - NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NUF - NUFARM LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGM - SIMS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: VCX - VICINITY CENTRES

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WES - WESFARMERS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WOW - WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: XRO - XERO LIMITED