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The Short Report

Weekly Reports | Jun 22 2017

This story features MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MYR

Guide:

The Short Report draws upon data provided by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) to highlight significant weekly moves in short positions registered on stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Short positions in exchange-traded funds (ETF) and non-ordinary shares are not included. Short positions below 5% are not included in the table below but may be noted in the accompanying text if deemed significant.

Please take note of the Important Information provided at the end of this report. Percentage amounts in this report refer to percentage of ordinary shares on issue.

Stock codes highlighted in green have seen their short positions reduce in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a lower percentage bracket. Stocks highlighted in red have seen their short positions increase in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a higher percentage bracket. Moves in excess of one percentage point or more are discussed in the Movers & Shakers report below.

Summary:

Week ending June 15, 2017

Last week saw the ASX200 perplex all and sundry by shooting straight up from 5680 support back to 5800 resistance in a couple of sessions, before tanking again on derivatives expiry day. This week sees us back at 5680.

Despite the volatility, last week saw far fewer notable movements in short positions than the prior two weeks. And nothing overly spectacular.

Unless we count Myer ((MYR)), which I highlighted in last week’s Report as having jumped to 18.2% shorted from 15.2%. I blamed Amazon. Last week did see Myer’s share price recover somewhat (until this week) but given shorts have now fallen back down to 14.6%, it’s hard to know if this is real or just an ASIC data blip.

Vocus Communications ((VOC)) has dropped again, to 8.7% from 12.9%, but that is easily explained by a takeover bid from private equity prompting a short-covering scramble.

On the subject of Amazon, Harvey Norman ((HVN)) enjoyed some bargain hunting last week (but not this week) which likely explains a drop in shorts to 9.2% from 10.5%. However peer JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) had the same experience but its shorts have crept up to 11.2% from 10.5%.

Qube Holdings ((QUB)) has dropped to 5.2% shorted from 6.2% but this was a play against the company’s rights issue, and Qube will probably drop out of the 5% plus table by next week’s Report.

Speaking of capital raisings, the stock to watch in next week’s report will be Bellamy’s Australia ((BAL)). Announced capital raisings will often result in a share price fall but not if the market believes the purpose of the additional funding is worthwhile, as is the case with Bellamy’s canning factory acquisition on a path to securing Chinese registration of its infant formula.

Bellamy’s remained 10.4% shorted last week but its share price has since taken off. Peer a2 Milk’s ((A2M)) share price has also taken off, this time following a profit upgrade due to unrelenting Chinese demand for a2 Platinum formula. a2’s short position was also little changed last week at 7.7%.

Which about sums up the week. Hence no Movers & Shakers this week.

Weekly short positions as a percentage of market cap:

10%+

ORE    20.1
SYR    18.9
WSA   15.9
IGO     15.3
MYR   14.6
MYX   13.2
MTS    12.7
ACX   12.4
DMP   11.9
FLT     11.8
ISD     11.6
JBH     11.2
RFG    11.2
AAD   11.1
SHV    10.4
BAL    10.4

In: SHV          Out: VOC, HVN                   

9.0-9.9%

SAR, NEC, HVN
 
In: HVN                      Out: SHV                                                                   

8.0-8.9%

VOC, PRU, EHE, JHC, QIN

In: VOC                      Out: MND

7.0-7.9%

NWS, MND, GTY, A2M, BKL, OFX, GXY, HSO, CTD, BEN, IPD, TPM, AHG

In: MND, GXY, AHG                      

6.0-6.9%

BAP, MYO, RWC, BGA, IFL, CSV, RIO

Out: GXY, AHG, QUB, SGH, BDR

5.0-5.9%

WGX, SEK, GXL, BDR, KAR, NXT, OSH, PLS, MTR, AWC, QUB, AAC, SRX, VRT, CCP, MSB

In: BDR, QUB                       Out: BAP, CSV, AHG

Movers and Shakers

See above.

 

 
ASX20 Short Positions (%)

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position "naked" given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a "short" position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, "short covering" may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to "strip out" the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option ("buy-write") position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a "long" position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of "pairs trading" in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a "net neutral" market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are "short". Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

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CHARTS

A2M HVN JBH MYR QUB

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2M - A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HVN - HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JBH - JB HI-FI LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MYR - MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QUB - QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED