Australia | May 25 2015
This story features AGL ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AGL
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday May 18 to Friday May 22, 2015
Total Upgrades: 7
Total Downgrades: 5
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 39.93%; Hold 42.75%; Sell 17.32%
In the face of a struggling and volatile share market, stockbroking analysts have gone relatively quiet. Upgrades and downgrades are predominantly news-related with Cardno (profit warning) and James Hardie (better than expected result) featuring prominently. Fashion retailer OrotonGroup delivered yet another disappointment in its brand repair strategy.
For the week ending Friday 22nd May 2015, FNArena registered no more than seven upgrades against five downgrades.
Apart from the typical post announcement responses, both banks and energy companies featured prominently. Banks continue to attract attention and divide the financial community post their long overdue correction while oil and gas stocks are equally divisive on volatility in crude oil futures and analysts re-calibrating their medium and longer term price forecasts.
Investors should note energy companies are populating both negative and positive overviews for changes to earnings forecasts for the week.
All in all, most changes implemented during the week are relatively benign, with exception for Cardno. James Hardie clearly surprised which is shown by its top ranking for positive earnings adjustments for the week.
Upgrades
AGL Energy ((AGL)) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 4/3/1
AGL will launch a new strategy next week. With coal a dirty word and New Energy in the form of household solar and batteries growing fast, the broker expects AGL will focus on cost restructuring and efficiencies and small asset divestments. AGL’s low cost coal generation provides flexibility and the company is well placed with regard a recovery in carbon offset prices, and the broker suggests cost discipline should flow through to improved dividends. Target rises to $16.00 from $15.15. Upgrade to Outperform.
Beach Energy ((BPT)) upgraded to Neutral, High Risk from Sell by Citi. B/H/S: 0/4/3
Citi has upgraded oil and FX forecasts. The broker expects the low point in oil will come in the second half of 2015, with supply and demand responses improving thereafter. The sector remains attractive for the broker although the near-term oil price is a risk. The broker considers Beach fairly priced at current levels and upgrades to Neutral/High Risk from Sell/High Risk. Target is $1.10.
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank ((BEN)) upgraded to Neutral from Sell by UBS. B/H/S: 1/5/2
The share price has pulled back since the result in February. UBS maintains its concerns over the impact of mortgage competition on margins and the reliance on the Homesafe house price gains to support the dividend. Still, potential sector net interest margin re-pricing after the bank capital raisings should support the regional banks. Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target is unchanged at $12.75.
Northern Star ((NST)) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 1/0/0
An update from Northern Star highlighted impressive exploration results at Kundana and a possible mine life extension for Kanowna Belle, the broker notes. Drilling at other sites should provide for a material resource upgrade. The company has now ruled out acquisitions given ongoing positive exploration results, and the broker expects production to improve from a weak March quarter. Upgrade to Outperform. Target rises to $2.50 from $2.30.
Oil Search ((OSH)) upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Citi. B/H/S: 7/1/0
Citi has upgraded oil and FX forecasts. The broker expects the low point in oil will come in the second half of 2015, with supply and demand responses improving thereafter. The sector remains attractive for the broker although the near-term oil price is a risk. Oil Search is now closer to the broker’s target as a result of the recent weakness and is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target is raised to $7.27 from $7.21.
Seek Ltd ((SEK)) upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Citi. B/H/S: 3/3/2
Citi reviews the stock in the light of the recent pull back in the share price. Earnings forecasts are lowered by 4.0% for FY15. While near-term momentum is mixed the medium-term growth story regarding domestic placements and international is intact. The broker still envisages downside risk to earnings but the share are trading broadly in line with valuation so the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target is reduced to $15.60 from $16.00.
Westpac Banking ((WBC)) upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS. B/H/S: 2/3/3
The recent result was softer than expected but the broker observes a significant pull back in the shares, with the stock underperforming peers by 5.0% and the market by 10.0%. The franchise is considered strong with leading asset quality and strong capital generation. Hence, the rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is unchanged at $37.
Downgrades
Cardno ((CDD)) downgraded to Sell from Neutral by UBS. B/H/S: 2/3/1
The company has guided to FY15 profit of $48-51m. The mid point of this guidance suggests a decline of 37%. Given the asset-light nature of the business UBS is concerned about the balance sheet and downgrades to Sell from Neutral. The broker believes guidance can only imply that the Australian operations have been structurally impaired by the collapse in the mining cycle while North American operations have felt the pinch of the decline in oil & gas investment. Target is lowered to $1.90 from $2.75.
James Hardie ((JHX)) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight by JP Morgan. B/H/S: 2/5/0
The company has made up ground over the final quarters of FY15 and the results comfortably exceeded the broker’s expectations. JP Morgan still believes James Hardie offers the most attractive and predictable growth profile in the sector but that this is also priced in. As a result the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. Target is raised to $17.35 from $16.60.
National Australia Bank ((NAB)) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS. B/H/S: 2/4/1
The decision to spin off the UK business and strengthen the balance sheet was difficult, UBS maintains. The market may have rewarded the bank by enabling it to be the best performing major in the year to date but to UBS the stock is no longer cheap. While there is medium term upside potential in business banking, the broker considers it involves significant risk. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target to $35.00 from $40.50.
Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral by JP Morgan. B/H/S: 0/3/5
JP Morgan observes the Australian gold sector has put in a positive performance for the year to date, but with valuations now full and expectations of a lower gold price for the remainder of the year, the decision has been made to downgrade Newcrest. Rating moves to Underweight from Neutral. No further changes have been made.
Sheffield Resources ((SFX)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 0/1/0
The pre-feasibility study on Thunderbird confirms the potential of a significant development, although at higher capex with lower production and a delayed start up. The results are disappointing. Macquarie considers it unlikely the project will meet previous expectations. Combined with a bearish outlook for mineral sands, the broker considers the project is significantly more challenging. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to 60c from $1.00.
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Total Recommendations |
Recommendation Changes |
 Broker Recommendation Breakup |
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Broker Rating
Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Upgrade | |||||
1 | AGL ENERGY LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Macquarie | |
2 | BEACH ENERGY LIMITED | Neutral | Neutral | Citi | |
3 | BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | UBS | |
4 | NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD | Buy | Neutral | Macquarie | |
5 | OIL SEARCH LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Citi | |
6 | SEEK LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Citi | |
7 | WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION | Buy | Neutral | UBS | |
Downgrade | |||||
8 | CARDNO LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | UBS | |
9 | JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V. | Neutral | Buy | JP Morgan | |
10 | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | UBS | |
11 | NEWCREST MINING LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | JP Morgan | |
12 | SHEFFIELD RESOURCES LIMITED | Neutral | N/A | Macquarie |
Recommendation
Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
Order | Symbol | Company | New Rating | Previous Rating | Change | Recs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | AGL | AGL ENERGY LIMITED | 38.0% | 25.0% | 13.0% | 8 |
2 | OSH | OIL SEARCH LIMITED | 88.0% | 75.0% | 13.0% | 8 |
3 | WBC | WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION | – 13.0% | – 25.0% | 12.0% | 8 |
4 | BEN | BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED | – 13.0% | – 25.0% | 12.0% | 8 |
5 | BPT | BEACH ENERGY LIMITED | – 43.0% | – 50.0% | 7.0% | 7 |
6 | AZJ | AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED | 63.0% | 57.0% | 6.0% | 8 |
Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
Order | Symbol | Company | New Rating | Previous Rating | Change | Recs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | IPP | IPROPERTY GROUP LIMITED | 67.0% | 100.0% | – 33.0% | 3 |
2 | TRS | THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED | – 50.0% | – 25.0% | – 25.0% | 4 |
3 | CDD | CARDNO LIMITED | 17.0% | 33.0% | – 16.0% | 6 |
4 | NAB | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED | 14.0% | 29.0% | – 15.0% | 7 |
5 | NCM | NEWCREST MINING LIMITED | – 63.0% | – 50.0% | – 13.0% | 8 |
6 | FMG | FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD | – 38.0% | – 25.0% | – 13.0% | 8 |
7 | JHX | JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V. | 13.0% | 25.0% | – 12.0% | 8 |
8 | TEN | TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED | – 43.0% | – 38.0% | – 5.0% | 7 |
9 | APN | APN NEWS & MEDIA LIMITED | 29.0% | 33.0% | – 4.0% | 7 |
Target Price
Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
Order | Symbol | Company | New Target | Previous Target | Change | Recs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | JHX | JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V. | 16.370 | 14.898 | 9.88% | 8 |
2 | BPT | BEACH ENERGY LIMITED | 1.003 | 0.987 | 1.62% | 7 |
3 | FMG | FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD | 1.860 | 1.834 | 1.42% | 8 |
4 | AZJ | AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED | 5.343 | 5.277 | 1.25% | 8 |
5 | AGL | AGL ENERGY LIMITED | 15.694 | 15.588 | 0.68% | 8 |
6 | OSH | OIL SEARCH LIMITED | 8.649 | 8.641 | 0.09% | 8 |
Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
Order | Symbol | Company | New Target | Previous Target | Change | Recs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | CDD | CARDNO LIMITED | 3.232 | 3.833 | – 15.68% | 6 |
2 | IPP | IPROPERTY GROUP LIMITED | 3.583 | 3.925 | – 8.71% | 3 |
3 | TRS | THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED | 6.325 | 6.513 | – 2.89% | 4 |
4 | NAB | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED | 35.643 | 36.486 | – 2.31% | 7 |
5 | TEN | TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED | 0.193 | 0.196 | – 1.53% | 7 |
6 | WBC | WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION | 35.283 | 35.358 | – 0.21% | 8 |
Earning Forecast
Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
Order | Symbol | Company | New EF | Previous EF | Change | Recs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | JHX | JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V. | 71.731 | 60.042 | 19.47% | 8 |
2 | XRO | XERO LIMITED | – 53.091 | – 47.121 | 12.67% | 3 |
3 | SGT | SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED | 23.291 | 21.420 | 8.73% | 3 |
4 | STO | SANTOS LIMITED | 27.996 | 26.246 | 6.67% | 8 |
5 | OSH | OIL SEARCH LIMITED | 24.929 | 23.511 | 6.03% | 8 |
6 | PDN | PALADIN ENERGY LTD | – 6.168 | – 5.953 | 3.61% | 5 |
7 | WPL | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED | 140.593 | 137.752 | 2.06% | 8 |
8 | ORG | ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED | 59.621 | 59.171 | 0.76% | 8 |
9 | SCG | SCENTRE GROUP | 22.707 | 22.564 | 0.63% | 7 |
10 | COH | COCHLEAR LIMITED | 272.645 | 271.383 | 0.47% | 8 |
Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
Order | Symbol | Company | New EF | Previous EF | Change | Recs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | CDD | CARDNO LIMITED | 24.614 | 40.957 | – 39.90% | 6 |
2 | IPP | IPROPERTY GROUP LIMITED | 1.767 | 2.000 | – 11.65% | 3 |
3 | FMG | FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD | 6.895 | 7.780 | – 11.38% | 8 |
4 | BPT | BEACH ENERGY LIMITED | 4.361 | 4.861 | – 10.29% | 7 |
5 | AWE | AWE LIMITED | – 6.567 | – 6.933 | – 5.28% | 6 |
6 | SXY | SENEX ENERGY LIMITED | – 0.781 | – 0.824 | – 5.22% | 7 |
7 | WOR | WORLEYPARSONS LIMITED | 88.421 | 90.084 | – 1.85% | 7 |
8 | TRS | THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED | 46.100 | 46.850 | – 1.60% | 4 |
9 | GNC | GRAINCORP LIMITED | 24.542 | 24.883 | – 1.37% | 6 |
10 | IGO | INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL | 41.397 | 41.826 | – 1.03% | 7 |
Technical limitations
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AGL - AGL ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BEN - BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT - BEACH ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CDD - CARDNO LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHX - JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NAB - NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NCM - NEWCREST MINING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NST - NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SEK - SEEK LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SFX - SHEFFIELD RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WBC - WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION