CENTURIA OFFICE REIT (COF)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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03/02/2026

3

Upgrade to Neutral from Sell

$1.03

UBS upgrades Centuria Office REIT to Neutral from Sell, with the target reduced to $1.03 from $1.20.

The broker considers the "downtime" over FY25/26 has dragged on earnings yet, while there are leasing headwinds, the issues are known and largely priced in, suggesting the risk/reward is more balanced.

Instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.

The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%.

A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.10 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 10.10 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.

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09/02/2026

4

Underweight

$1.10

6.80%

Centuria Office REIT delivered an in-line first half result while maintaining FY26 guidance. Progress has been made on the leasing front, Jarden notes, derisking near-term lease expiry in FY26 but at the cost of elevated incentives levels and vacancy ticked up marginally.

Jarden rolls forward its model and updates assumptions to reflect a moderate occupancy recovery, offset by asset disposals and higher bank bill swap forward curve, resulting in a moderation of funds from operation growth in FY26-28.

Despite the apparent value on offer, the broker remains cautious on metro office exposures characterised by elevated vacancy, relatively shallow leasing demand, and elevated incentives across full floor fit outs.

Target falls to $1.10 from $1.20, Underweight retained.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.10 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 10.10 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents.