article 3 months old

No Need To Rush Into Woolworths

Technicals | Sep 29 2016

Bottom Line 28/09/16

Daily Trend: Neutral
Weekly Trend: Neutral
Monthly Trend: Neutral
Support levels: $22.28 / $20.50 – $19.76
Resistance levels: $26.05 / $28.03 / $29.22

Technical Discussion

Woolworths has interests in food, liquor, petrol, hotels and New Zealand supermarkets.  The latter is engaged in the procurement of food and liquor for resale to customers in New Zealand.  The hotel section is engaged in the provision of leisure and hospitality services which includes food, alcohol and accommodation as well as entertainment and gaming. For the year ending the 26th of June 2016 revenues decreased 1% to A$58.28B. Net income before extraordinary items decreased 15% to A$1.95B. Revenues highlight the Australian Food Liquor & Petrol section decrease of 3% to A$39.59B.  Broker/analyst consensus is a comprehensive “Sell”.  Dividend yield at today’s price sits at 3.4%.
 
Reasons to be cautious:
→ further asset sales feasible.
→ corrective action to the balance sheet should be dilutive for shareholders.
→ Speculation of a price war isn’t helping sentiment.
→ Continuing to lose market share in the grocery market.
→ Margins will remain tight and potentially decline further in the near term.
→ Analyst support remains negative.
 
We simply haven’t wanted to be involved in WOW from a trading perspective over recent months as the lacklustre price action continues. Having said that, a decent bounce commenced in early July this year resulting in a gain of just over 20%. However, it didn’t take long for the sellers to gain the upper hand again with price action off those highs being less than promising. If we are looking for small positives, then at least the recent pivot low terminated around the 61.8% retracement level as shown which in normal circumstances would be a bullish proposition. However, the retracement has hardly been textbook in regard to seeing a symmetrical 3-wave movement down.
That said, a push above the recent minor pivot high at $24.14 would be a small step in the right direction with a continuation up above $26.05 suggesting a larger bounce is going to unfold. In other words, there is plenty of hard work to be done before moving to a firmer bullish stance over the short- term. We think it’s much more likely that price is going to continue to meander sideways within a trading range between $20.00 – $26.00 for the foreseeable future. Some type of a basing pattern would be bullish bigger picture although they tend to continue for significant periods of time making for frustrating trading conditions. A push beneath $20.00 would be serious reason for concern although there has been very good demand at those lower levels in the past. All things being equal we’d expect this characteristic to continue. The risk at the moment is that price remains lacklustre while a larger base is built.
Trading Strategy

It’s still difficult to find a broker that is positive on Woolworths although of course this isn’t the be all and end all, even in regard to fundamental analysis. The general consensus appears to be that the company is going to slowly turnaround although it’s going to be a long drawn-out process. The recent rally likely prices in such a development which again means it’s difficult to get overly enthusiastic at this juncture. As long as buyers continue to step up to the plate just above the $20.00 mark, which is our expectation, there is scope for higher prices albeit much further down the track. We retain a neutral stance.

Re-published with permission of the publisher. www.thechartist.com.au All copyright remains with the publisher. The above views expressed are not by association FNArena's (see our disclaimer).

Risk Disclosure Statement

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING SECURITIES AND LEVERAGED INSTRUMENTS I.E. DERIVATIVES, SUCH AS FUTURES, OPTIONS AND CONTRACTS FOR DIFFERENCE CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR OBJECTIVES, FINANCIAL SITUATION, NEEDS AND ANY OTHER RELEVANT PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES TO DETERMINE WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU. THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN FUTURES, OPTIONS AND CONTRACTS FOR DIFFERENCE TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. THIS BRIEF STATEMENT CANNOT DISCLOSE ALL OF THE RISKS AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT ASPECTS OF SECURITIES AND DERIVATIVES MARKETS. THEREFORE, YOU SHOULD CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR ACCOUNTANT TO DETERMINE WHETHER TRADING IN SECURITES AND DERIVATIVES PRODUCTS IS APPROPRIATE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CIRCUMSTANCES.

Technical limitations If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedIn

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms