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Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

Australia | May 04 2015

This story features ALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALQ

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 27 to Friday May 1, 2015
Total Upgrades: 19
Total Downgrades: 9
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 39.94%; Hold 42.51%; Sell 17.54%

It has been a while since recommendation upgrades outnumbered downgrades by a significant margin. Most of 2015 has been characterised by the opposite trend. The week ending Friday, May 1st, 2015, saw upgrades running at double the speed of downgrades with FNArena recording 19 upgrades versus 9 downgrades.

So all it took was a down-week in a side-ways tracking pattern? The week's overview of upgrades and downgrades reveals this is a much more complex process but falling share prices are always a stimulus for broking analysts lifting ratings on individual stocks.

Stocks in the limelight during the week included iiNet (take-over battle), ALS Ltd, Recall Holdings (take-over, but no battle), ResMed (value discussion post sell-down) and oil and gas producers in the Cooper basin which were united around disappointing production reports and the flaring up of consolidation speculation.

Negative changes to valuations/price targets remained small, with mostly industrial stocks involved, while Australian Pharmaceutical Industries, Recall Holdings and BC Iron saw noticeable increases to their price targets. The table for revisions to profit forecasts shows the negative side continues to be dominated by resources stocks with ResMed the sole exception, while on the positive side Ten Network steals the show even beating Grange Resources' doubling of consensus forecasts.

Similar to the observation made last week, the underlying positive development behind all this is that mining and energy stocks have also started to appear on the positive side for adjustments to profit forecasts, valuations and broker ratings. This is a major change from what's been happening in the three opening months of 2015.

Upgrades

ALS ((ALQ)) upgraded to Hold from Sell by Deutsche Bank and to Neutral from Sell by UBS. B/H/S: 0/5/2

March quarter earnings were weaker than expected but Deutsche Bank upgrades to Hold from Sell as there are few negative catalysts remaining. The stock is trading at the low end of its historical ranges. While the broker continues to have a negative outlook for the oil & gas business this only contributes 10% to ALS' earnings and so is less meaningful to near-term overall earnings. The company has issued FY15 profit guidance of $135m, ahead of UBS' expectations. Management has also disclosed that a $290m impairment would be taken against the carrying value of oil & gas investments. The scale of the write-down is significant in the broker's view. UBS upgrades forecasts by 5.5% for FY15 and by 3.5% for FY16. The broker upgrades the rating to Neutral from Sell.

AMP ((AMP)) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 2/6/0

Despite a full valuation Macquarie is upgrading to Neutral from Underperform and raising the target to $6.10 from $5.90. This follows the favourable Australian performance from Reinsurance Group America in its first quarter results. The broker upgrades earnings forecasts by 2.5% to reflect mark-to-market adjustments.

Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 5/1/1

March quarter appears to have been strong for gaming in Oklahoma. The data was a positive surprise for Credit Suisse and brings a 3.0% upgrade to FY15 earnings estimates. The broker assumes the stronger earnings are sustained and upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is raised to $9.00 from $8.35.

Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)) upgraded to Buy from Hold by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 1/5/2

Bank of Queensland, on Deutsche Bank's estimates, is trading at a 5.0% discount to the major banks, despite offering much faster growth. The broker envisages upside risk to earnings and returns should the major banks re-price their mortgage books. A change in market dynamics could allow BOQ to deliver above cost of equity returns for the first time since the GFC, in the broker's opinion. Deutsche Bank upgrades to Buy from Hold and raises the target to $13.95 from $13.55.

BC Iron ((BCI)) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 0/2/1

March quarter production was better than expected and Macquarie is upgrading earnings forecasts, reinstating earnings from iron Valley which had been removed because of uncertainties surrounding the ramp up. The broker believes BC Iron needs to continue cutting costs to become positive on cash flow at spot prices. Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform and the target lifted to 45c from 30c, largely from the reinstatement of Iron Valley.

CSR ((CSR)) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral by JP Morgan. B/H/S: 4/3/1

JP Morgan analysts observe how CSR's share price has weakened this year while its peers, and the building materials sector in general, seem to enjoy buoyant circumstances. The analysts blame the sharp slide in the aluminium ingot premium, while pointing out the overall impact in AUD terms doesn't look too bad. JP Morgan sees sufficient reasons to turn more positive and has upgraded to Overweight from Neutral. Target $4.05 (was $4.25). Forecasts have been reduced.

DUET ((DUE)) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 1/5/1

DUET enters the next regulatory period with a cash flow pay-out ratio that is already high. Credit Suisse suspects there is currently an M&A premium being priced into the shares which is likely to persist for some time. Target is upgraded to $2.65 from $2.46 and the rating to Neutral from Underperform.

iiNet ((IIN)) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight by JP Morgan and to Add from Hold by Morgans. B/H/S: 2/6/0

M2 Telecom ((MTU)) has made an indicative offer at 0.803 M2 share plus 75c dividend. In the absence of a higher or scrip-based counter bid by TPG Telecom ((TPM)) JP Morgan considers it likely the board will approve M2's offer. The broker views the competition regulator risks with the M2 offer as lower, given M2 has a smaller share of the residential broadband market than TPG and upgrades iiNet to Neutral from Underweight. Morgans believes the M2 bid is superior to the TPG offer and upgrades iiNet to Add from Hold. Should a higher bid not materialise, the broker believes iiNet shareholders should be comfortable with equity in the combined group and this is a better outcome than the TPG offer.

See also IIN downgrade.

Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 1/7/0

If the NSW storms were not bad enough, IAG has also seen a jump in claims for the earlier Cyclone Marcia to levels well above expectations. The combination sees the insurer downgrading FY15 margin guidance and reporting reinsurance protection for 2015 is now all but used up. However aggregate reinsurance will kick in if further events occurred thus the broker suggests earnings certainty remains through to end-2015. On that basis the broker has cut its FY15 earnings forecast but increased FY16, and on the strength of the IAG sell-off has upgraded to Outperform. Target falls to $6.00 from $6.10.

OceanaGold ((OGC)) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 5/1/0

March quarter production was strong and in line with expectations. The company has a non-binding agreement with Newmont Mining to acquire New Zealand's Waihi underground gold mine for US$101m. OceanaGold expects significant synergies with its existing NZ operations and cost reduction opportunities. Credit Suisse suspects the extension of Macraes is increasingly likely beyond the forecast closure in 2017. The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and retains a $3.00 target.

Pact Group ((PGH)) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 2/3/0

High density poly resins prices have increased substantially in the past two months because of a supply squeeze in monomers. Credit Suisse suspects Pact may face a $3m raw material headwind in FY16, reversing prior positive assumptions. The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral, given the 6.5% fall in the share price since February and only a minor revision in the target price to $4.75 from $4.80. Pact is awaiting approval for the steel drum manufacturing acquisition and, along with the Sulo acquisition, the broker expects FY16 should show the benefits.

Recall Holdings ((REC)) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie and to Neutral from Sell by Citi. B/H/S: 2/3/1

Macquarie reviews assumptions around a merger with Iron Mountain. The suggested synergies of US$250m are considered a stretch but the deal would still work without synergies, given the tax benefits. The broker considers the current share price does not hold any material takeover premium yet the value creation from the merger would be significant and materially accretive. Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Iron Mountain is offering 0.1722 share for each Recall share or a cash alternative at $8.50 a share. Benefits to Recall shareholders are participation in Iron Mountain's appreciation and exposure to the synergies given the scrip component. In the light of the agreement, Citi increases target to $8.50 from $5.76 and upgrades to Neutral from Sell. The broker envisages limited upside to the share price above the cash offer price.

Sims Metal Managment ((SGM)) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral by JP Morgan. B/H/S: 4/0/3

JP Morgan analysts had kept a close watch on what the company's peers had been reporting so the disappointing trading update did not come as a surprise. What did surprise was a larger than anticipated impact on future profits. The analysts are confident the company will find the route back towards "growth". Combined with share price weakness, this provides sufficient reason to upgrade the rating to Overweight from Neutral. Target drops to $11.95 from $12.15. JP Morgan observes over recent weeks signs have been emerging scrap and iron ore prices are stabilising. This should help Sims Metal on its way to growing profits, note the analysts.

Spark Infrastructure ((SKI)) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 3/2/2

Spark Infra is the broker's preferred exposure of the regulated utilities. Credit Suisse estimates management will be able to extend the 3-5% distribution growth target which was set for the last regulatory period. The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target to $2.30 from $2.24.

Tiger Resources ((TGS)) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 1/1/0

Tiger's production was solid in what is the wet season quarter, the broker notes. The cash balance is unchanged but debt has been reduced and working capital improved. Tiger is progressing with a refinancing deal. The completion of a deal is nevertheless by no means certain, the broker warns, but developments are moving in the right direction and Kipoi is performing well. Target rises to 6c from 3c and rating upgraded to Neutral.

Wesfarmers ((WES)) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 0/6/2

Coles' March quarter sales growth of 4.1% remains a stand-out, the broker suggests, and implies the supermarket is stealing share from Woolworths ((WOW)). There is nevertheless downside risk assuming Woolies responds with a price war. But Bunnings continues to thrive, Kmart and Officeworks are now delivering on investment and Liquor and Target are quietly turning around. The broker believes the Coles risk is built into the current Wesfarmers price and a 10% premium to market is justifiable on a 5.3% yield.

Downgrades

Beach Energy ((BPT)) downgraded to Hold from Add by Morgans. B/H/S: 0/3/3

Beach reported a sharp reduction in sales in the March quarter, with production affected by weather, longer downtime at Moomba and the timing of shipments. Morgans expects a greater focus on conventional oil and gas exploration as a result. With a change in analyst the rating is downgraded to Hold from Add ahead of the outcome of the company's strategic review. Target is reduced to $1.14 from $1.62.

Drillsearch ((DLS)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 1/5/0

Drillsearch offers the best value and best position of the Cooper Basin juniors, in Credit Suisse's view. Still it is not breaking even and the reserves life is short. Credit Suisse upgrades the target to $1.35 from $1.20 but downgrades the rating to Neutral from Outperform.

iiNet ((IIN)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse and to Neutral from Buy by Citi. B/H/S: 2/6/0

M2 Telecommunications ((MTU)) has made an indicative offer at 0.803 M2 share plus 75c dividend. Credit Suisse estimates iiNet will have the capacity to fully frank the special, adding 32c of franking value. The broker considers the offer superior to the TPG Telecom ((TPM)) $8.60 cash offer. TPG has three days to make a counter bid. Credit Suisse does not believe M2 can raise its bid, as another $1 to the proposal would make the deal a challenge for M2. With only 4.0% in potential upside to the broker's target the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Citi downgrades to Neutral from Buy as the shares are now trading near the mid point of revised valuation. The broker still considers there is upside to iiNet's valuation but acknowledges the potential risk of a negative outcome for the stock, should the losing party in the bidding war move to block the winning bidder via an on-market purchase.

See also IIN upgrade.

Lynas Corp  ((LYC)) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral by JP Morgan. B/H/S: 0/2/1

JP Morgan is downgrading Lynas to Underweight from Neutral based on near-term risks such as production issues, prevailing prices and a highly leveraged balance sheet. Target is lowered to 4c from 6c. Production at the LAMP was down 9.0% quarter on quarter and well below phase 1 capacity. Production was affected by instability in the solvent extraction operation. Revenue implied realised prices of US$11-12/kg compared with US$15/kg in the December quarter.

ResMed ((RMD)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 5/3/0

March quarter flow generator sales were strong but rather than viewing this as a positive Macquarie considers it a risk, as the AS10 upgrade cycle comes to an end in FY16 and instead becomes an earnings growth headwind. The broker also remains concerned about sluggish growth in masks and whether this can be turned around. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target to $9.00 from $9.50.

Senex Energy ((SXY)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 4/3/0

Senex' March quarter production was weak due to various interruptions and limited development activity, leading to revenues falling 16% short of the broker's forecast. The cash balance remains healthy nonetheless, given capex controls. Thus Senex retains flexibility with regard future capital, the broker notes, given a healthy liquidity position. But on a 35% share price rally in the June quarter to date without any new news, the broker has pulled back to Neutral. Target unchanged at 45c.

Seven West Media ((SWM)) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 4/3/1

The company intends to undertake an equity raising with maximum proceeds of $612m which, in the broker's view, will remove a significant overhang on the balance sheet. Seven Group's ((SVW)) preference shares will be converted into ordinary shares and a pro rata offer of 2.27 for every three shares held will be made to non-Seven Group shareholders. The undertaking is highly dilutive to Deutsche Bank's earnings forecasts and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target is lowered to $1.40 from $1.75. FY15 guidance has been affirmed and, given the equity raising is taking place late in the financial year, Deutsche Bank makes few changes to forecasts. Still, a lower distribution following the transaction has substantially reduced the implied dividend yield from FY16 onwards.

TPG Telecom ((TPM)) downgraded to Reduce from Hold by Morgans. B/H/S: 1/1/3

M2 Telecom ((MTU)) has made a scrip-based bid for iiNet ((IIN)) as a counter offer to TPG's $8.60 cash bid. Morgans believes the M2 bid is superior to the TPG offer. Regardless of the outcome, the broker considers M2's bid means TPG shareholders are worse off. Either TPG walks and earnings are lower than expected without iiNet, or it pays more and the value created for TPG is therefore lower. The broker downgrades to Reduce from Hold. Target is reduced to $7.55 from $8.70.

 

Total Recommendations
Recommendation Changes

 

Broker Recommendation Breakup

 

Broker Rating

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker
Upgrade
1 ALS LIMITED Neutral Sell UBS
2 ALS LIMITED Neutral Sell Deutsche Bank
3 AMP LIMITED Neutral Sell Macquarie
4 ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED Neutral Sell Credit Suisse
5 BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED Buy Neutral Deutsche Bank
6 BC IRON LIMITED Neutral Sell Macquarie
7 CSR LIMITED Buy Neutral JP Morgan
8 DUET GROUP Neutral Sell Credit Suisse
9 IINET LIMITED Buy Neutral Morgans
10 IINET LIMITED Neutral Sell JP Morgan
11 INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED Buy Neutral Macquarie
12 OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION Buy Neutral Credit Suisse
13 PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LTD Buy Neutral Credit Suisse
14 RECALL HOLDINGS LIMITED Buy Neutral Macquarie
15 RECALL HOLDINGS LIMITED Neutral Sell Citi
16 SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED Buy N/A JP Morgan
17 SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP Buy Neutral Credit Suisse
18 TIGER RESOURCES LIMITED Neutral Sell Macquarie
19 WESFARMERS LIMITED Neutral Sell Macquarie
Downgrade
20 BEACH ENERGY LIMITED Neutral Buy Morgans
21 DRILLSEARCH ENERGY LIMITED Neutral Buy Credit Suisse
22 IINET LIMITED Neutral Buy Citi
23 IINET LIMITED Neutral Buy Credit Suisse
24 LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED Sell Neutral JP Morgan
25 RESMED INC Neutral N/A Macquarie
26 SENEX ENERGY LIMITED Neutral Buy Macquarie
27 SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED Neutral Buy Deutsche Bank
28 TPG TELECOM LIMITED Sell Neutral Morgans
 

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Rating Previous Rating Change Recs
1 REC RECALL HOLDINGS LIMITED 17.0% – 20.0% 37.0% 6
2 BCI BC IRON LIMITED – 33.0% – 67.0% 34.0% 3
3 OGC OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION 83.0% 50.0% 33.0% 6
4 CIM CIMIC GROUP LIMITED – 43.0% – 67.0% 24.0% 7
5 PGH PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LTD 40.0% 20.0% 20.0% 5
6 API AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES – 25.0% – 40.0% 15.0% 4
7 ALL ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED 57.0% 43.0% 14.0% 7
8 ALQ ALS LIMITED – 43.0% – 57.0% 14.0% 7
9 SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED 57.0% 43.0% 14.0% 7
10 WES WESFARMERS LIMITED – 25.0% – 38.0% 13.0% 8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Rating Previous Rating Change Recs
1 TPM TPG TELECOM LIMITED – 40.0% – 20.0% – 20.0% 5
2 DLS DRILLSEARCH ENERGY LIMITED 33.0% 50.0% – 17.0% 6
3 SXY SENEX ENERGY LIMITED 57.0% 71.0% – 14.0% 7
4 AIO ASCIANO GROUP 75.0% 88.0% – 13.0% 8
5 NAB NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED 25.0% 38.0% – 13.0% 8
6 RMD RESMED INC 63.0% 75.0% – 12.0% 8
7 SWM SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED 38.0% 50.0% – 12.0% 8
 

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs
1 API AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 1.388 0.936 48.29% 4
2 REC RECALL HOLDINGS LIMITED 8.037 6.708 19.81% 6
3 BCI BC IRON LIMITED 0.355 0.330 7.58% 3
4 DLS DRILLSEARCH ENERGY LIMITED 1.212 1.162 4.30% 6
5 ALQ ALS LIMITED 5.259 5.066 3.81% 7
6 CIM CIMIC GROUP LIMITED 19.257 18.625 3.39% 7
7 SXY SENEX ENERGY LIMITED 0.467 0.453 3.09% 7
8 BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED 0.987 0.958 3.03% 6
9 NAB NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED 38.198 37.411 2.10% 8
10 SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED 5.440 5.349 1.70% 7

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs
1 SWM SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED 1.631 1.716 – 4.95% 8
2 TPM TPG TELECOM LIMITED 8.482 8.696 – 2.46% 5
3 RRL REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED 1.575 1.599 – 1.50% 8
4 RMD RESMED INC 9.882 9.946 – 0.64% 8
5 CSR CSR LIMITED 4.064 4.089 – 0.61% 8
6 PGH PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LTD 4.640 4.650 – 0.22% 5
 

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs
1 TEN TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – 2.863 – 1.377 107.92% 7
2 GRR GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – 0.267 – 0.133 100.75% 3
3 SXY SENEX ENERGY LIMITED – 0.824 – 0.624 32.05% 7
4 XRO XERO LIMITED – 47.121 – 37.220 26.60% 3
5 NCM NEWCREST MINING LIMITED 64.438 55.625 15.84% 8
6 BTT BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED 45.020 40.120 12.21% 5
7 CIM CIMIC GROUP LIMITED 161.474 144.895 11.44% 7
8 AQG ALACER GOLD CORP 15.891 14.409 10.29% 6
9 SWM SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED 4.241 3.879 9.33% 8
10 API AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 7.762 7.152 8.53% 4

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs
1 BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED 4.861 6.647 – 26.87% 6
2 FMG FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD 7.749 9.028 – 14.17% 8
3 SFR SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL 56.248 63.050 – 10.79% 8
4 BCI BC IRON LIMITED – 12.350 – 13.425 – 8.01% 3
5 HZN HORIZON OIL LIMITED 2.204 2.349 – 6.17% 3
6 BDR BEADELL RESOURCES LIMITED 5.580 5.920 – 5.74% 5
7 MML MEDUSA MINING LIMITED 21.586 22.773 – 5.21% 4
8 BHP BHP BILLITON LIMITED 171.401 177.823 – 3.61% 8
9 DLS DRILLSEARCH ENERGY LIMITED 10.367 10.700 – 3.11% 6
10 RMD RESMED INC 29.642 30.190 – 1.82% 8
 

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CHARTS

ALL ALQ AMP BCI BOQ BPT CSR IAG LYC PGH REC RMD SGM SVW SWM WES WOW

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALL - ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALQ - ALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP - AMP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BCI - BCI MINERALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOQ - BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT - BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CSR - CSR LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IAG - INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LYC - LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PGH - PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: REC - RECHARGE METALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RMD - RESMED INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGM - SIMS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SVW - SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SWM - SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WES - WESFARMERS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WOW - WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED